Figure AI just showed off its AI-powered humanoid robot (pictured above). Its capabilities include working autonomously as well as with humans, in complex environments like… a BMW factory. [Elon: There could be a new Sheriff-in-Town.]
You might not know it from the news… but we’re in the dog days of August. So, I put my Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses on for size and really tried them out. Honestly, Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg could be on to something – if they conquer the invasion of privacy thing. I find them a good way (instead of earbuds) for: making phone calls, listening to music / podcasts, and taking photos. I tried Meta’s built-in AI assistant and found it completely useless. While looking at my son’s Irish Terrier, I asked Meta what kind of dog I was looking at, and Meta responded: “There is no dog in this picture.” My assessment is based on the quality of the Ray-Ban glasses, and their audio/video capabilities that are a good product/market fit for me right now.
Silence vs Noise: Per Seth G: when a group comes together, it naturally makes noise. Any commotion made by a few people will trigger the noise. On the other hand, silence requires everyone to be in sync and ignore those triggers – and that is much tougher.
The Market:
The Japanese Carry-Trade:
- 1. For 30 years Japan has had negative or 0% interest on their currency.
- 2. As a result, for 30 years investors borrowed YEN at no cost, converted YEN into DOLLARS, and invested it in T-Bills and equities.
- 3. Ten days ago, the BOJ (Bank of Japan) took the world by surprise by increasing interest rates by 0.25%.
- 4. Investors quickly realized that their borrowings were no longer free, and because of that started to unwind their trades, convert Dollars to Yen, and send the funds back to Japan.
- 5. The estimates for this risk-asset sell-off range between $4T and $20T.
The Timing of the Sell-Off: Overleveraged institutions were forced to de-risk over the August 4th weekend – leading them to initially sell their crypto due to its 24/7 nature. Then they sold currencies, equities, and other assets once the futures markets opened later on Sunday evening / Monday morning.
This Drop is a Gift… but moves like these normally take weeks/months to settle out. Be patient, and compile your shopping list. Wait to see some stabilization and positive price action – then buy with confidence.
Going forward… history tells us that returns over the next year will be above average; however, the path will not be an easy one. Bear markets bring large numbers of stocks reaching oversold conditions – and we are not seeing that. Recessions bring widening credit spreads – and we are not seeing that. Thus far, this is a buying opportunity.
Things I use: I believe that most of our financial decisions should not be done alone, and for that purpose - Advisor.com is around to help. I like them, but please examine them for yourself at no cost… R.F. Culbertson.
[ Learn about Advisor.com here… ]
InfoBits:
- Tim Walz (the Democratic VP candidate) … has something in common with ~80% of Americans. Neither Tim nor his wife directly own any stocks, mutual funds, bonds, crypto, or real estate. He’s a true working-class American.
- Big Tobacco is asking for enforcement. Tobacco and vape companies are facing a knockoff nightmare as Chinese vapes are flooding U.S. shelves.
- Warren Buffet’s Berkshire cut their stake in Apple by 49%.
- A federal judge ruled that Google violated antitrust laws… by monopolizing online search.
- Over 3,200 companies have announced mass layoffs in 2024.
- X has a new business model: suing its customers. Elon (the owner of X) filed a lawsuit alleging that a coalition of major advertisers conspired to withhold advertising dollars from X. [FYI – more advertisers dropped X as a result.]
- "Sell the first rate cut'… says B of A’s top global strategist – as the economy heads toward a hard landing and our FED gets set to slash rates.
- The FDA approved the first nasal spray to treat severe allergic reactions: Neffy is a needle-free alternative to the EpiPen.
- ‘Mo Money … Mo Losses…’ As more insurers make Wegovy part of their coverage, Novo Nordisk (Wegovy owner) is facing a complex web of rebates, commissions, and price concessions to pharmacy benefit managers. Add to that supply chain constraints and pricing pressure from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound – and you have a recipe for skyrocketing sales and dwindling profits.
- Europe said NO to Elon… as Elon admitted to training his AI company’s chatbot using Twitter’s personal data. [‘But your honor, there is no such thing as PRIVACY within Twitter or Google – just read the Terms ‘n Conditions.’]
- Paramount Global is laying off 15% of its U.S. workforce… in preparation for their merger with Skydance Media.
- 30-year mortgage rates have dropped to 6.47%... lowest level in 15 mos.
Crypto-Bytes:
- BTC dropped to $49,000 early on August 5th: The last time BTC dropped by this much was November 2022, and then in March 2020. Each of these moments turned out to be a tremendously great buying opportunity. This time will likely be no different.
- Jump Crypto, in a move that screamed: ‘Volatility Forever’… unloaded $91m of ETH over the August 4th weekend, turning the market into a rollercoaster. They contributed to ETH’s price tanking below $2,200 – leaving traders fuming and pointing fingers.
- It’s NOT Bitcoin’s fault… as analysts see no extra bad vibes for crypto during this market tumble, and believe that Bitcoin may bounce back as a ‘hard asset’ when the dust settles. Institutional money is still flowing into Bitcoin ETFs; therefore, crypto’s not going anywhere, even during its rough patch.
- SEC swings and misses against Ripple (XRP)… this week the high court reinforced the ruling that XRP wasn't a security when sold to regular folks, but XRP does have to pay a $125m fine – a 94% reduction (a ‘nothing burger’) when compared to what the SEC was asking ($2B and being found guilty of securities violations).
- Vladimir Putin legalized Bitcoin mining in Russia… coming as no surprise on the heels of Trump’s commitment to “mine all Bitcoin in the United States.” Game theory says that all nations will compete for a stake in the Bitcoin network.
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
Monday August 5th: The Carry Trade is cracking. Global markets were shellacked last night when the Japanese market fell 12% (its largest 1-day drop in history).
- Every major global market has been hammered.
- Bitcoin tumbled more than 10%, sinking below $50k for the first time this year.
- Berkshire Hathaway dumped more equities in Q2 than during any other time in its history.
- The Mag-7 will erase $1.5T in market cap today – bringing the total drawdown in Mag-7 stocks to over $4.5T since their most recent peak.
This is a Black Monday, and how long it stays with us is anyone's guess. The Carry-Trade has been going on for 20+ years and it's ~$20T wide. This resembles a margin call for the planet. The game plan is probably this:
- The BOJ will convene, and talk about intervening,
- That conversation will cause a rip-your-face-off rally,
- But that rally will be sold as the dust settles.
- Proceed with Patience ‘n Caution.
Wednesday: They have rushed back into stocks, as they feel everything has been settled and we can get back to the business of only going higher. I still feel there's a trap being set here, but maybe I'm nuts – I’ll admit that. This all feels too cute to me – especially with Warren Buffett selling. Fair warning.
Morgan’s Moments…
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Next Week: Volatility is Sticky…
Bkdg: Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride ended the week virtually where we started. Volatility has backed-off, but I don’t believe that the fun is over because the bond market is signaling more turbulence ahead. If this week’s CPI release comes out too soft == ‘look-out-below’. By combining a too soft CPI with rate cut expectations, traders could find themselves in a street fight for the rest of the summer.
We are in a Volatility Channel… We are in the beginnings of an SPX volatility box. The longer that the SPX remains between 5200 and 5360 – the more open interest it accumulates and its resolution (either higher or lower) will be that much more violent. Tip #1: Pay less attention to ‘talking heads’ and more to the 5200 & 5360 levels. The market will define its move by those levels rather than by any fundamentals.
VVIX and SKEW… Spikes in volatility never correspond to market bottoms. Pay less attention to the VIX (a 30-day indicator) and more attention to the VVIX (the volatility of the VIX) and the SKEW (the relationship between out-of-the-money PUTS vs CALLS). The VVIX (118) is still in the red/danger zone = above 110 – which indicates heavy hedging activity. The SKEW is confirming market fear as it’s ~150 – indicating that traders are putting on their hedges by buying PUT options. Tip #2: A high VVIX and high SKEW tell me that more volatility is nearby.
Bonds have room-to-run higher… following their sell-off last week. If more volatility is right around the corner (VVIX > 110, High SKEW, and Higher Dollar), then bonds will be a natural flight-to-quality. Tip #3: Rather than buying bonds, you may wish to consider buying an out-of-the-money Call Option in TLT such as the one listed below.
Short META… because Meta is the Mag-7 member that has been most unaffected by this correction. META is at the top of its pricing channel, and it finished outside of its expected move the last 2 weeks. Tip #4: If you believe that move volatility is on the horizon – then META is an obvious candidate to go lower.
Effects of a Hard/Soft CPI this week… Watch for our Government to produce a goldilocks CPI this week. They will need to release a CPI (inflation) number (Wednesday @ 8:30am ET) that is not too high or low, but rather: just right. If the CPI comes out too high, it could be a deterrent for FED rate cuts. If the CPI comes out too mild, that could trigger a market sell-off due to deflationary thinking. I’m guessing that our Government releases a number that is extremely close to what the market is expecting.
SPX Expected Move (EM):
- Last Week’s EM was $138 … and we moved all of it lower then higher – and ended the week unchanged.
- Next Week’s EM == $115 … which is less than last week, but still high. Keep your head on a swivel. Please, keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle.
TIPS:
In Summary, the inevitable bounce from oversold conditions and logical support levels has come and run its course. Markets will probably find another excuse to selloff as stocks run into short-term overhead resistance.
Tip #5: Congrats to those that participated in ~100% increase in Harrow Health last week. In my opinion, there’s more to come.
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- 13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.04%
- Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,470/oz. & Silver @ $27.5/oz.
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $61,100 / in at $4,310)
- **Ethereum (ETH = 2,600 / in at $310)
- HROW – Harrow Health = $35.9 / in at $12 = ~Doubled on Aug 8th earnings
- **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($17 / in at $12)
- Weekly: BUY Puts for protection & SELL Covered-Calls for income
- INDA – India ETF ($55.8 / in at $50)
- **IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($34.6 / in at $24)
- **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($8.00 / in at $12.5) / Sold Sept $16 Cov-Calls
NEW’ish ADDS:
- +NEE ($77.46) – Energy: Jan ’25: $80 / $100 CALL Spread
- +TLT ($96.2) – Bonds: Jan ’26: $110 / $130 CALL Spread – hedge
- +SPY ($533) – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$520 to -$500 PUT Spread – hedge
- +SPY ($533) – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$500 PUT – hedge
** Crypto-Currency aware
Please be safe out there!
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