RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, November 27, 2022

This Week in Barrons: Nov. 27th, 2022


My business has NO competition…   that’s because there’s never any competition for things that don’t matter.  Entrepreneurs should be looking for problems that others are paying good money to solve.  Therefore, your goal is NOT to find a non-competitive environment, but rather a cheaper-better-faster solution.


Do you grade on a curve?   Yes, the Kepner-Tregoe curve.  That is where the student puts the percentage odds that they think their test answer is correct – next to each of their answers on an exam.  You then multiply the value of the problem by the student’s probability of success and you get the problem’s final worth.  So, if you think there is ‘no chance’ your answer is correct – then put down a 0%.  Multiply the credit for the test answer by your probability for success (in this case zero) and you receive 0 credit for that answer.  And, if you are positive that your answer is correct – then go ‘all-in’ and put down 100%.  If you turn out to be wrong, you pay the ultimate price – you fail the exam.  It tends to reinforce that life is just a series of probabilities.


Happy Thanksgiving…   As parents we need to remember that parenthood is but a short chapter in our child’s story.  Therefore, we should stop, look around, and say: ‘Thank You’ – a lot more often.



The Market: 



Today’s Twitter…   will not be the same in 3 months.  That is the amount of time that George Holtz has been given to re-architect, re-shape, and re-write critical parts of the application.  Within 30 days, George has already fixed Twitter’s unusable search tool – a task thousands of others took years to not complete.  This is the level of developer that Elon attracts, and the level of productivity they achieve.  Elon’s style (lead, follow, or get out of the way) is not for the faint of heart, or for those expecting participation trophies.  ‘Break-a-Leg’ Elon and George!



InfoBits:



-       Bob Iger returns as CEO of Disney…  replacing Bob Chapek.  Iger was Disney’s CEO from 2005 to 2020, and was brought back in as a fix-it man.


-       US existing home sales…   fell for the 9th consecutive month, down 28% YoY while the median price of a home is up over 6%.


-       Government owned Amtrak…   has not made a profit in 50 years.


-       COVID-19 cases in China…   are spiraling toward record highs, forcing officials to again lock down large swaths of the country.


-       German police have launched an international hunt…   for thieves who stole $1.65m worth of ancient gold coins from a museum – within nine minutes and without triggering any alarms.


-       Qatar, the 2022 World Cup host…   was eliminated from the tournament yesterday and made it the earliest host nation to be knocked out from the World Cup in its 92-year history.


-       Life is like a 10-speed bicycle…   most of our gears will never used”… Charles M. Schultz.



Crypto-Bytes:



-       Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management…  bought $1.5m of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) because it’s trading at a record discount to its underlying net asset value.


-       Solana has lost over -93% since January 2022…   and over -95% since its all-time high in November 2021.


-       Brendan Blumer, the founder and CEO of Block.One…  is now the majority owner of crypto bank Silvergate.


-       Proof of Reserves - Proof of Liability = Verified Solvency


-       The following have completed Proof of Reserves: Kraken, BitMex, Nexo, Gate.io, and HBTC.  Where’s Coinbase?


-       The following will provide Proof of Reserves in the near future:  Binance, Bitfinex, Crypto.com, KuCoin, OKEx, and Huobi.  Where’s Coinbase?


-       Binance just jumped above Coinbase…   as the largest reserve holder of Bitcoin for the first time – ever.


-       This is the first time the majority of bitcoin holders…   are ‘in-the-red’ since the COVID-crash of 2020.


-       Sequoia just made FTX…  their biggest single investment write-off in their history.  


-       Tiger Global Mgmt. marked down their fund by 25%...   FTX contributed to their $42B decline.


-       Bain Capital/Consulting…   was paid +$100m by Tiger Global for their due diligence of FTX.  I smell a lawsuit coming.


-       Binance has doubled its ‘industry recovery fund’ to $2B…   which will be used to buy distressed crypto assets and support the industry. 


-       Not your keys … Not your coins…   Per HL: “I can’t trust the exchanges.  God bless the people that use and trust them.  I won’t.”



TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was): 



Monday:

-       The housing market is falling at its fastest pace since 2008.

-       Tech layoffs are above Dot Com (2001) levels. 

-       Personal credit card debt is near $1T for first time.

-       Crypto / FTX losses are over $2T. 

-       Consumer confidence is at an all-time low.

We're in a recession, and we will be in a bigger one in 2023.  The value of Bitcoin is now below its average mining cost.  We don’t know just how badly crypto will knock the crap out of our financial system.


Tuesday:  Workers at the largest U.S. rail union voted against the latest tentative contract deal.  This raises the possibility of a year-end strike that could paralyze vital shipments of food and fuel.  Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said that inflation has peaked.  He also expects the S&Ps to fall to around 3000 in Q1 of 2023.


Wednesday: I believe that energy will become more of a premium product as winter continues.  Around Dec. 6th Europe is scheduled to receive its first blast of arctic air.  I'm liking: HES, OXY and SLB in the energy space.


Friday:  China cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the second time this year – which released $70B to prop up their faltering economy.  Production of Apple's iPhones could fall by 30% due to disrupted operations at Foxconn's factory in Zhengzhou.  The FTC is likely to block Microsoft’s $69B takeover of Activision Blizzard.  One reason for the DOW’s out-performance is: European money.  When you're in a war-torn area and you wish to shelter your money, the DOW is known as where the ‘value-based’ American companies reside.  It’s easy to buy the DIAs and let-it-ride.



AMA (Ask Me Anything…)



SBF did his best to cripple crypto…   by causing hundreds of thousands of people to lose a lot of money.  The single biggest loser lost $222m instantly.  Forbes just published a list of 134 companies FTX caused to file for bankruptcy protection.  James Bromley (FTX’s bankruptcy attorney) and John Ray (FTX’s new CEO) told a U.S.  bankruptcy court that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) ran FTX as his own personal check book.  Sam’s parents and senior executives bought at least 19 properties in the Bahamas, for $121m over the past 2 years.  Bromley also said that a substantial amount of FTX’s assets are missing and may have been stolen along with SBF’s leadership abilities.  “SBF was supposed to be crypto’s future, and instead he may have robbed the industry of one.”


The future of crypto…   is DeFi (decentralized finance), and it will get a lot brighter through: integration, regulation, fungible products, centralized clearing, 3rd party market making, and a trusted ecosystem.  DeFi is not an asset or a currency play, but rather a technology play.  And throughout history, very few people have succeeded by shorting next generation technology at multi year lows.  Backing DeFi is NOT like betting on some overpriced SPAC or a crowded cannabis play.  DeFi’s innovative technology is being built on a scale that the world has never seen before.  Although the price of digital assets could drop lower in the short-term – fading the space right now offers little reward for a ton of risk.



Next Week:  When will REALITY sink in?



Is the Santa Claus rally coming?  That answer depends upon the upcoming data.  Following the lower CPI print on November 9th, this market has wandered between 3931 and 4050.  Currently, this market is far too data dependent to guess December’s results.  In the next couple of weeks, we have: a JOBS number, CPI, GDP, and a FED meeting.   And if the layoffs kick in and the JOBS number is lousy – is that good or bad for markets?  I am bearish longer term, but fearful of any holiday-related market moves.


Sector update YTD: SPY (-16% YTD), QQQ (-28%), XLF (-9%), XLE (+60%), XRT (-27%), XLP (-1%), and XLU (0%):  Due to the market’s data dependency, here are a couple ‘sector specific’ thoughts.  

-       If the market goes back into a ‘selling mode’, the XLF and XLE are going to take a hit.  The financials and energy are both out-performing the S&Ps.  So, if I’m going to short something – it’s going to be something that’s out-performing. 

-       Energy is +60% YTD.  When energy starts to break, that means that a global slowdown is in the cards, and that is when REALITY will meet the markets.

-       Retail (XRT) is down -27% YTD, but Consumer Staples (XLP) is only off -1% YTD.  Shorting XLP gets my attention prior to shorting the XRT.

-       Utilities (XLU) is unchanged (0%) on the year and therefore holds additional risk to the downside – especially with its dividend yield being less than the 10-Year.


Currently, markets are too data dependent to take a purely directional position as it relates to the S&Ps.  The range is between 4211 and 3931.  If you’re bearish on the overall marketplace, go into a better risk-v-reward ratio such as shorting the: XLF, XLE, and/or XLP.


Volatility is changing:  It has been moving lower for the past 60 days.  However, both the SKEW and the VVIX caught a bid last week.  Traders have returned to hedging because they believe there is downside risk.  Watch the 9-day VIX this week as to whether it will follow the SKEW and VVIX higher.


TRADES:

-       Tip #1 = NFLX…  go lower = BOT Jan. PUT Spread = +$275 / -$265 PUT.

-       Tip #2 = SPY…  go lower = BOT Dec 30 PUT Spread = +$392 / -$382 PUT.

-       Tip #3 = SPY…  go lower = SOLD Jan 31 CALL Spread = -$440 / +$450 CALL.


SPX Expected Move (EM):

-       Last Week’s EM (3.5-day week) was $72, and we hit it almost exactly.

-       Next Week’s EM = $76.  We moved $72 in 3.5 sleepy days last week.  Next week is pricing the same EM, but we have 5 full-days and a JOBS report.  I’m expecting us to ‘smash’ through the EM next week. 



Tips:  



HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)


-       PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1,769 /oz. & Silver @ $21.66 /oz.


-       AGG – BOT more bonds (AGG = $98 / in at $93)

-       **BitFarm (BITF = $0.61 / in at $4.12)

o   Selling CCs for income,

-       **Bitcoin (BTC = $16,475 / in at $4,310)

-       **Ethereum (ETH = $1,200 / in at $310)

-       EGY ($5.24 / in at $5.30)

-       GME – DRS’d and HODL

-       GS (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$340 / -$330 PUT Spread

-       IBM (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$130 / -$120 PUT Spread

-       Innerscope (INND = $0.010 / in at $0.0052)

-       NFLX (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$275 / -$265 PUT Spread 

-       RIG ($4.06 / in at $3.47)

-       SBUX (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$85 / -$75 PUT Spread

-       SPY (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Dec 16 / +$357 / - $347 SPY PUT Spread

o   BOT Dec 16 / $285 DIA PUT

-       TSLA (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$170 / -$160 PUT Spread 

-       VIX (Upside CALLS):

o   BOT Dec 16 / +$30 / -$35 CALL Spread


Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.


Please be safe out there!


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Sunday, November 20, 2022

This Week in Barrons: Nov 20th, 2022

     
 … Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom / 10+ years ago. (click below to view)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEyUWKJFER8


“The first step to solving a problem…   is admitting you have one.  I remember when America:

-       Stood up for what was right.

-       Waged war on poverty, not on poor people.

-       Sacrificed, and cared about her neighbors.  

-       Put our money where our mouths were, and never beat our chests.

-       Made technological advances, explored the universe, and cured diseases.

-       Cultivated the world’s greatest artists, AND the world’s greatest economy.

-       Reached for the stars, and acted like men.

-       Aspired toward intelligence, and never let it make us feel inferior.

-       Never identified ourselves by who we voted for in the last election.  

-       AND we didn’t scare this easily.”


Substitute ‘Thank you’ for ‘I’m sorry’: 

-       Sorry’, doesn’t advance a conversation - ’Thank You’ does.  

-       ‘Sorry, I’m late’ becomes: ‘Thank you for your patience’.  

-       ‘I’m sorry we got disconnected’ becomes: ‘Thank you for calling back.’  

-       It’s subtle, but makes all the difference moving from Separation to Connection.


In bear markets, doomerism sells.  In bull markets, hopium sells.  Beware of both, as they’re high noise and low signal strength.”



The Market: 



Sam, you’re worse than Bernie and Elizabeth…   Bernie Madoff and Elizabeth Holmes never used the excuse, “I'm sorry.  I really f_!@_k’d up."  Bernie and Elizabeth were unapologetic criminals that knew exactly what they were doing.  But Bernie and Elizabeth only stole from the rich.  Sam, you stole from everyone.  You didn’t f__k-up, you flat-out stole people’s money.  You pocketed +$6B out of millions of hard-working people’s accounts who trusted you.  Sam, somehow cleaning toilets in prison for the rest of your life – just isn’t enough for ruining millions of their lives. 


Sam, stop whining like a toddler.  You’re whining about how unfair things are from a $40m penthouse in the Bahamas.  You continue to blame the refs, the conditions, and the score keeper.  Try and grasp: understanding, humility, and how to give back to a community.  Learn that FIXING comes with taking responsibility and leads to healing.  Unfortunately, whining just continues your dark comedy of errors.


Wall Street wants profits and cash flow…  and is now less enamored with: grow at any price”… Josh Brown the Reformed Broker.


“This bond drawdown is the worst of all time…  and if you don't own any bonds, maybe this is the right time to consider them.  I added AGG for the first time in my life”…  Howard Lindzon of StockTwits.com. 



InfoBits:



-       Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes…   was sentenced to 11 years in prison, plus 3 years of supervised release.


-       As Twitter’s layoffs continue…  does anyone else believe that this was Musk’s plan all along?  90% of a software company’s productivity is driven by 10% of its workforce.  By my count, he still has twice as many people as he needs.  


-       49% of bars and restaurants were unable to pay their rent in October.


-       The housing market has hit a wall…  Redfin cut 13% of its staff as housing slides into the 2nd-worst correction since WWII.


-       Amazon founder Jeff Bezos plans on giving away…   majority of his $124B to fight climate change and to support global unification.


-       Amazon is beginning to lay off 10,000 people…   in corporate and technology. These will be the largest job cuts in the company’s history.


-       It will take until mid-2023 until companies begin to accept the resetting of their valuations.  When this happens, capital markets will reopen to IPOs”…   Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon.


-       "Consumers have reduced personal savings from 9% down to 3.3%...   and have pushed credit card balances to record highs”...  Upstart CFO Sanjay Datta.


-       Disney’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”…   raked in $180m in North America.  It was the second-biggest box-office of the year and the highest-grossing November debut ever.


-       Walmart reported earnings and revenue above expectations…  due to a +6% growth in its grocery business.  Consumers are switching grocery to more down-market alternatives such as WMT.


-       Credit card balances rose 15% YoY…   the largest annual jump in 20 years as consumers spend their way into more debt.


-       U.S. housing starts fell 4.2% in October…   led by declining single-family projects.  October’s rent growth was the slowest in 18 mos.


-       The average 401(k) balance…   fell 23% YoY.


-       The US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted.  In the last 50 years, every time we have surpassed this threshold a recession has followed.



Crypto-Bytes:



-       When FTX raised $420m in October 2021…   didn’t investors care that Sam used $300m of it to buy back some of his own personal FTX shares.


-       Either Nexo has a guardian angel or someone smelled an FTX stink…     because just hours before FTX shut down withdrawals, Nexo withdrew $220m from their FTX accounts.


-       FTX's implosion costPantera -$130m, Galois -$40mParadigm -$278m, SoftBank -$100m, and others.  Solana is in trouble, and Genesis Global, BlockFi, and Salt have bit the dust.


-       "NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS”.   Investors are taking the phrase seriously as the number of Bitcoin users who hold their BTC assets in self-custody wallets has hit an all-time high.


-       The new FTX boss condemned Sam Bankman-Fried…   "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information.”


-       Ukraine was a major investor in FTX…   and Sam was the Democrats second largest donor ($40m) after George Soros.


-       What are the ‘whales’ doing during this crypto-pocalypse?   They’re practicing an old Wall Street adage: “Bfearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.



TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was): 



Monday:  Do we continue the melt up this week?  I think our markets have ju-ju in ‘em for a while longer.  Looking at some charts, I like what I see on AMPB.  There’s a ton of options buying in AMPB, so maybe someone knows something.


Tuesday:   Today we heard from HD and WMT and both beat estimates.  Walmart even approved a new $20B share buyback.  Re-checking the economy, things seems to have gone from bad to worse. 

-       In layoffs: Amazon is -10,000+ this week, Twitter’s headcount is down 50%, Snap is off 20%, Meta is -11,000, Credit Suisse is off 5%, and Apple & Disney have hiring freezes.

-       FTX has caused $2T to leave crypto.

-       80%+ of tech stocks are in bear market territory.

-       We have the fastest falling housing market since 2011.

-       And we have the worst earnings since Q3 2020.

-       That’s why this is a bear market bounce.


Wednesday: UK inflation hit a new 41-year high with consumer prices rising 11.1% YoY.  Mastercard, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup launched a 12-week experimental digital dollar pilot with the New York FED.  Total household debt just had the largest quarterly increase since 2007.  Given the DOW’s rejection at the 34,000 level, I could see a pullback to the 200-day moving average at 32,500.  In bear market bounces, the fear of missing out becomes stronger than the fear of getting punched in the gut.


Thursday:  The bear bounce could be over because crypto is imploding as exchange after exchange goes belly up.  Seeing that amount of $B’s disappear will have a follow-on effect inside of the equities markets.  FED-head Bullard is out this morning claiming that the FEDs have further to go, and may go as high as 7% in rates.  The Debt market is coming apart at the seams, the 2-Year is at 4.42%, and the inversion steepens daily.  The Philly FED manufacturing index is down 19 against estimates of negative 6.  It’s a crazy, manipulated mess out there.


Friday:  It’s just another string of odd days.  Why is oil down?  Has demand evaporated or have supplies increased?  Nope.  Container ship prices have decreased, but that's not enough.  Something odd is going on.



AMA (Ask Me Anything…)



Alexa, play “Bad Blood”…  Taylor Swift fans have a major beef with Ticketmaster.  On Tuesday, the ticket platform suffered outages after millions of Swifties tried buying tickets to Taylor’s 2023 tour – her first in five years.  Presale tix were going for $49 to $500 on Ticketmaster, but resellers quickly began listing seats for as much as $22,000 on StubHub.  Ticketmaster’s advance sales for 2023 are on track to surpass this year’s shows.


Sam Bankman-Fried…   had a direct message exchange with Vox reporter Kelsey Piper which produced such gems as:

-       Sam: “f#ck regulators – they make everything worse”.

-       Sam: “I said a lot of dumb shit on other interviews that was not true."

-       And he declares himself the victim: “FTX's downfall could have been avoided had it not declared bankruptcy, which took financial matters out of my hands.”



Next Week:  A Calm before another Volatility Storm?



Markets pause and no SPX breech….  After last week’s blistering CPI print, the markets took a pause.  Market correlations remain relatively high.  


Living in the Upside-Down…  where bad news for the economy is often good news for the markets, and vice versa.  It’s much easier to invest when we’re NOT in an upside-down world.


Target is the reality, and cooling inflation is not…  Target badly missed earnings this week, and warned about the consumer softening going into the holiday season.  A CPI print cooling by 0.2% is fairly meaningless when the FED comes out and tells you that they’re going to be raising rates higher – for longer. 


Are energy and financials rolling over?  Last week we touched the 3931 level, bounced, and ended the week around 3974.  But a couple elements that jumped out at me were: 

-       (a) the dollar ($DXY) flattened out for the week, 

-       (b) bonds rallied a bit, 

-       (c) volatility (VIX) is still in the 20’s – which is TWICE the level that it was for the last decade,

-       (d) financials (XLF) breeched the lower end of their Expected Move before finishing down for the week, and

-       (e) energy (XLE) also finished on the lower edge of their Expected Move – but has almost rallied back to 2014 levels.

-       Energy and financials are critical to moving the S&Ps higher.


The SKEW is picking up…   which means that the Pros are back to hedging via buying PUTs inside of the SPX instead of by buying CALLs inside of the VIX.


Get your Trade On:

-       OIL (/CL)…  the movement in Oil last week is nothing short of recessionary.  If it loses the $75/barrel level – it’s a straight shot down to $60.

-       Tip #1 = GOOGL…  go lower = BOT Dec. PUT Spread = +$100 PUT / -$90 PUT

-       Tip #2 = NFLX…  go lower = BOT Jan. PUT Spread = +$275 PUT / -$265 PUT.

-       Tip #3 = TSLA…  go lower = BOT Jan. PUT Spread = +170 PUT / -$160 PUT. 


SPX Expected Move (EM):

-       Last Week’s EM = $99, and for a change of pace we remained inside the EM.

-       Next Week’s EM = $72, but there is only a 3.5-day trading week due to the holiday season.  Thanksgiving week is traditionally an ‘up week’, but the week after is when we see another JOBS report and a FED meeting is on the horizon.  



Tips:  



HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)


-       PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1,752 /oz. & Silver @ $20.98 /oz.


-       AGG – BOT some bonds (AGG = $97 / in at $93)

-       **BitFarm (BITF = $0.65 / in at $4.12)

o   Selling CCs for income,

-       **Bitcoin (BTC = $16,500 / in at $4,310)

-       **Ethereum (ETH = $1,175 / in at $310)

-       EGY ($5.37 / in at $5.30)

-       GME – DRS’d and HODL

-       GOOGL (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Dec / +$100 / -$98 PUT Spread

-       GS (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$340 / -$330 PUT Spread

-       IBM (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$130 / -$120 PUT Spread

-       Innerscope (INND = $0.011 / in at $0.0052)

-       NFLX (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$275 / -$265 PUT Spread 

-       RIG ($4.14 / in at $3.47)

-       SBUX (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$85 / -$75 PUT Spread

-       SPY (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Dec 16 / +$357 / - $347 SPY PUT Spread

o   BOT Dec 16 / $285 DIA PUT

-       TSLA (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan / +$170 / -$160 PUT Spread 

-       VIX (Upside CALLS):

o   BOT Dec 16 / +$30 / -$35 CALL Spread


Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.


Please be safe out there!


Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>. 

 

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PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

 

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

 

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Until next week – be safe.


R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>