‘Knock-Knock’ – Nobody buys anything on an elevator. Your elevator pitch is not designed to explain what you do or even to make the sale. The elevator only exists so that someone will follow you out-of-it, and ask you more questions. ‘Knock-Knock’ jokes are the best teacher of this. For starters, if you’ve ever heard a ‘Knock-Knock’ joke – you didn’t hear it from the person who made it up. ‘Knock-Knock’ jokes prove that: Ideas that are shared = WIN. Work so that people will appreciate and share what you do as easily as they do ‘Knock-Knock’ jokes.
One complaint about consultants is that… they invent stuff out of thin air, with confidence, without sourcing, and then argue it when challenged. Unfortunately, all we can do is change the level of B.S. we are willing to tolerate. To prevent this behavior, ask 2 questions: (a) Could you please Show-Your-Work? and (b) Could I please have an Itemized Receipt?
Companies can learn from Taylor Swift… “The Tortured Poets Department” album has been #1 for a record-breaking 13 consecutive weeks. She has sold over 2.5 million MORE copies of “TTPD” than the next 9 best-selling albums combined. How does she do it? T-Swift has released over 30 versions of the same album. When ‘TPPD’ dropped, there were four versions fans could buy – each with a different bonus track. T-Swift has continued releasing variants: some with acoustic versions of songs, others with voice memos, and even a phantom clear vinyl version. She’s proving that selling to your existing customers is cheaper-faster-better than acquiring new ones.
The Market:
Crowdstrike (CRWD) caused the largest computer outage in IT history… and that’s saying something. A malfunction in the company’s threat-monitoring software crippled ALL Microsoft Windows systems. Problems ranged from Hospitals to the London Stock Exchange to India’s Government to airlines worldwide. And speaking of airlines, over 4,000 flights were cancelled – stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers. Ultimately, the company was able to deploy a fix, but experts say this outage will linger because the solution needs to be deployed manually on a per-machine basis.
Top 5 Market Themes … per Callum T:
- China… needs more stimulus as slower growth, softer consumer confidence, and falling property values have taken hold.
- + Corporate U.S. Tax Cuts… will further widen the U.S. vs global taxation gap.
- + Gold… is higher – supported by China, central banks & retail buying.
- + Silver… is higher due to a high demand vs low supply issue, and illegal/naked shorting by U.S. regulators being brought to light.
- + Miners… due to precious metals strength and cheap valuations.
Top 5 Market Themes… per D.J. Trump:
- + Crypto… support regulations that foster innovation and adoption.
- + On-Shoring… gov’t encouraging U.S. production.
- + Small Companies… lower tax rates, deregulation (fossil fuels & financials), and on-shoring support.
- - Renewable Energy… less gov’t regulation and renewable subsidies.
- - Healthcare… eliminate efforts toward healthcare-for-all.
[ Learn about Bullseye Trades here… ]
InfoBits:
- 55 years ago, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin… became the first people to walk on the moon in Apollo 11.
- AT&T hackers obtained all of the call logs and SMS data… from their 110m customers between May - October, 2022.
- "We are not seeing the same growth… in consumer spending that we had in prior quarters. There was less traffic in the retail venues, labor market softening and tightening consumer budgets." – Citigroup
- Alphabet would like to buy… 4-yr. old cloud cybersecurity company WIZ for $23B. Alphabet lags behind Microsoft and Amazon in that arena, and most genAI tools run on cloud servers where security is a top concern.
- We can now predict whether mild cognitive impairment… will progress to Alzheimer’s disease with over 80% accuracy. Dementia cases are expected to triple over the next 50 years, and early detection is key.
- Prime Day (the 2-day event for Amazon Prime subscribers)… saw sales increase +12% YoY.
- New Balance signed a multiyear deal… to become an official WNBA partner. As b-ball stars like Caitlin Clark attract millions of fans, women's-sports merch has become an estimated $4B market in the U.S.
- The EU’s landmark AI Act is due to go live next month… and lucky for the rest of the world the EU doesn’t give-a-damn about keeping their AI startup industry competitive or their AI talent close-by.
- YTD U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings… are the highest in 13 years.
- T-Mobile ranks as the fastest internet provider… across most U.S. states.
- The VIX (Wall Street’s fear gauge)… is now at its highest level since April after U.S. weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest level of the year.
Crypto-Bytes:
- Above is the Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI)… showing that Bitcoin mining stocks have completed their long-term base breakout, and are poised to outperform BTC going forward. Tip #1: I like: MARA, CLSK, MIGI, and WULF.
- OpenAI’s Project Strawberry… is being trained to “navigate the internet” and undertake “deep research” independently. It uses a learning method that (over time) will allow it to reach better-than-human intelligence.
- Trump is the keynote speaker at Bitcoin 2024… later this month. He chose Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate.
- J.D. Vance is a bitcoin holder… and advocate for crypto-friendly legislation. He becomes the first "Bitcoiner" onscd a presidential ticket, and is igniting a surge of excitement in the crypto community.
- Elon says that he is donating $45m per month… to a pro-Trump super PAC.
- The SEC asked the Ethereum ETF companies… to submit their final paperwork and fees. The start of official ETH ETF trading could be as soon as Tuesday, July 23.
- On the verge of Ethereum spot ETFs… Bitcoin’s ETF approvals increased the inflow pipelines markedly allowing Bitcoin to move higher on added demand. Tip #2: Fair warning on Ethereum.
Things I use:
I’m a subscriber and user of TheoTrade. Don Kaufmann and his team are excellent traders and educators. They will make you smarter, by using their trades to make you money. Earn while you learn. Please, try it out for free yourself … R.F. Culbertson.
[ Learn about TheoTrade here… ]
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
Tuesday: Oh, it's just another 600 DOW points. This is actually more insane than some of the tech bubble runs of the late 90's. A huge rotation is going on where investors are taking profits from their Mag-7 stocks and spreading it into the Russell (IWM). So, the NASDAQ and S&P are red, Gold is up $30, CAT is up $15, and HD is up $10. This is pretty crazy.
Thursday: Yesterday the NASDAQ dropped the most in a single day since 2022, but the DOW continued to scream higher. This morning initial jobless claims rose to 243k.
Friday: U.S. futures are recovering after the largest IT outage in history impacted airlines, healthcare, media, and banking industries. The issue appears to have come from CrowdStrike (CRWD). Their ‘Falcon Sensor’ software is causing Microsoft Windows to crash and display ‘the Blue Screen of Death’. Markets are also digesting comments from Donald Trump last night as he concluded the 4-day RNC. Coming into Friday, the S&P and Nasdaq are on track for weekly losses as investors take profits in tech ahead of earnings season.
Morgan Moments…
It’s a masterclass in storytelling… https://youtu.be/0HjDpPnxcP0?feature=shared It’s not written especially well or funny, but raises an issue that most people never think about – in a way they can clearly understand. If you must explain why people should care about your product, you need to do it as simply as possible with a smile on your face. That is what this ad does.
Do you know how bad things got in this crypto correction? The average max. drawdown this year has been 68%. This was NOT just a sideways and consolidating market, but rather one where some serious damage took place. The flipside is that this aggressive bounce that we’re seeing is a testament to how difficult it is for any crypto bear market to sustain itself – when you have a raging bull market directly outside (and often connecting) with the crypto landscape itself.
Next Week: Is that a Bear I hear?
Bkgd: One week does not reverse the large-cap tech outperformance trend. Typically we see volatility pick up around major turning points such as this. Watch to see if small-caps and other neglected market areas have any staying power. Everyone is waiting on confirmation prior to making any larger bets in the space. The risk is that the current selloff shakes previously strong confidence and sets off a number of market dominos.
Tech is choppy and cyclical… Microsoft is down, Nvidia has broken the $120 level, and Apple is 4 days removed from all-time-highs. This is not real ‘sell-side’ activity. Traders are simply cashing in some winners, and buying crap that nobody else has wanted – like Starbucks (SBUX). When the selling becomes ‘real’ – nobody will be spared the pain.
Adv/Decline line is still not displaying correlation… In the S&P100, we had 60’ish products to the downside at any given time. During correlation / capitulation, that number would be closer to 90+. When we see high degrees of correlation (i.e. 90% of stocks moving to the downside) – that’s when we can experience capitulation, and we’re just not there.
Volatility Futures are up, but far from ‘rockin’… We’re starting to hit a patch of volatility, but we haven’t seen any serious selling as of yet. We’re coming into tech earnings weeks, and by early August – we could be off-to-the-races again. Watch the S&P futures (/ES) and look to see if we’re down 2% - 3% - because that is the level where real selling could begin.
Any exits have been small and orderly… With only 7 products driving this market (Mag-7), just watch the Put/Call ratios for those specific stocks to see if any large (un-orderly) amount of PUT contracts are being purchased (none to date).
Volatility could make this market less-orderly… Instead of the VIX, I use Volatility Futures (/VX) to sense trading volatility. Currently, the /VX is not moving dramatically higher – because there’s no elevated degree of correlation. YTD: NVDA is up +140%, META +37%, and the S&Ps +16%. So, although there is selling – this is not a massive portfolio hit.
Expected moves are starting to expand… The last time the S&Ps closed outside their Expected Move to the downside – was mid-April. I suspect that Monday will bring us a bid back under the market and traders will be thinking about buying PUTs on the bounce. Tip #3: If you feel the urge, do NOT BUY Puts, but rather SELL Calls in this marketplace. When options are cheap – buying options was the way to go. Now that options are elevated – let the market pay you those higher prices.
Expected Moves (EM):
- Last Week’s (EM): $64 … and we moved ~$105 (almost 2 Std. Dev’s to the downside)
- Next Week’s (EM): $85 … should cause you to ‘scale back’ your trading because you’re getting more bang-for-your-buck. Tip #4: With increased volatility must come increased control. Scale back the size of each trade.
TIPS:
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- 13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.44%
- Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,402/oz. & Silver @ $29.4/oz.
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $67,300 / in at $4,310)
- **Ethereum (ETH = 3,520 / in at $310)
- HROW – Harrow Health == $25.01 / in at $12
- **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($24.63 / in at $12) / Sold Sept $30 Cov-Calls
- INDA – India ETF ($56.18 / in at $50) / BOT Nov, +$53 / -$55 Call Spread
- **IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($38.4 / in at $24)
- **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($12 / in at $12.5) / Sold Sept $16 Cov-Calls
** Crypto-Currency aware
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
Disclaimer:
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