[Hillary Clinton is scared that Bitcoin will undermine the dollar…
as the global reserve currency.]
Tug Boats (and most big companies) = PUSH… because pushing is more mechanically efficient than pulling. But what if customers and employees wanted to follow and do their best? What if they were: ‘engaged’? You can easily lead 100’s if they want to be a part of the journey. So, why don’t organizations & governments ‘engage’ rather than push or pull? Because as John Wayne used to say: “It’s hard. And it’s even harder when you’re stupid”.
Life as an entrepreneur… is not like living on a roller-coaster. It’s like living on a set of stairs. And moving from stair to stair – takes guts and a whole lot of heart.
CEOs do something that most of us avoid… make decisions. That’s where they create the most value. And it’s the strategic decisions that can change the arc of companies, careers, and everyone’s job satisfaction. Here are the top 4 questions that CEOs ask themselves on a daily basis:
- 1. What are the top 3 decisions on my desk right now?
- 2. Would others in my position have a different list?
- 3. How much of my day will I spend learning to make those decisions?
- 4. Can I make them all by Tuesday?
The Market:
You’ve heard the phrase: “Everything is relative.” Per AP: every investor in the world denominates their portfolio in U.S. dollars. But due to the historic expansion of the money supply, the S&P 500’s appreciation could be as much a result of the dollar’s depreciation as anything else. The U.S. dollar is highly liquid, accepted by global businesses, and comes with the full faith and credit of the U.S. Gov’t. But 40% of all dollars in circulation have been created in the last 18 months.
A better way to look at the value of your portfolio is to denominate the assets in bitcoin – because it’s the most honest marker we have:
- It has a finite, programmatic supply that cannot be manipulated.
- It has a much lower inflation rate (1.78%) than most currencies.
- And its value is determined by a free market.
If you live in a world (like the U.S.) where your currency is constantly being devalued, everything you own will appear to be increasing in price. FYI: countries with the highest inflation numbers also have the best performing stock markets. Bitcoin (measured in U.S. dollars) has increased in value over 300% in the last 12 months (and over 180% / yr. for the past decade). Therefore, all of the assets you own and invest in must keep pace with bitcoin because: “Everything is indeed relative.”
InfoBits:
- Rivian is now the world's 3rd most valuable automaker… topped by only Toyota and Tesla.
- Lucid Motors, which went public via SPAC… is valued at 50% of Rivian, and just won MotorTrend's Car of the Year award.
- Toshiba will split into smaller companies… to spur more targeted investment.
- Warner Music, which represents Cardi B and Ed Sheeran… saw sales jump 22% last quarter – partly due to their tunes being played on TikTok and Peloton.
- Markets are awaiting news on who the next FED Chair will be.
- U.S. retail sales rose by 1.7% in October… more than double September’s 0.8% sales growth.
- The U.S. Treasury Secretary now estimates… that the government will run out of money on December 15.
- Peloton announced plans to sell $1B worth of stock… just weeks after insisting it didn’t need any more cash to combat slowing growth.
- Our world still runs on oil and gas… as 60% of our electricity is generated from fossil fuels. EVs account for 2% of the U.S. new-car market. Even Pres. Biden is asking for ways to boost oil production.
- Waymo (Google’s self-driving car company) … is expanding its UPS partnership in order to move more autonomous truck shipments before the holidays.
- “When you think about our values we have three: we’re transparent, we’re curious, and we’re principled.” Michelle Zatlyn co-founder of Cloudflare (NET)
- CVS will be closing over 900 stores over the next 3 years… due to “changing consumer buying patterns.” Are we beginning the era of the all-in-one pharmacy / clinic?
- Apple personnel return to offices on Feb. 1… to begin a “hybrid work pilot”, where employees will work in the office for 1 – 2 days each week, and 3 days a week starting in March.
- Keep telling yourself that inflation isn't that bad… because lumber prices went up another +6.3% on Thursday – +38% on the WEEK.
- Tesla drivers (on Friday) were left unable to start their cars… after an outage struck the carmaker's app.
Crypto-Bytes:
- A DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) was outbid… by Citadel CEO Ken Griffin ($47m) when trying to buy a special copy of the U.S. Constitution at auction. Hey Ken … how much to buy Citadel?
- In cryptos on the move: Loopring (LRC = $2.50) continued its rise, up 136% on news that GameStop will be using it for its NFT platform. Also watch: IoTeX (IOTX = $0.33 // +113%) and Livepeer (LPT = $63.98 // +79%).
- Paradigm has closed on a $2.5B fund. It is the largest industry fund dedicated exclusively to crypto.
- BitGo, the crypto custody provider being acquired by Galaxy Digital… has seen its assets under custody swell to over $64B.
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Mike Novogratz’s crypto conglomerate… saw its third-quarter income grow to $517m.
- With NFT’s… it’s important NOT to judge the current state of innovation by where you think it will end. Because, even the best get an innovation’s end point wrong.
- Over 488,000 people have downloaded the eNaira consumer wallet… for Nigeria’s central bank digital currency which launched on Oct. 25. Didn’t Nigeria ban crypto in February? Times do change!
- Hello Crypto.com Arena… goodbye Staples Center.
- India will ban the use of cryptocurrency for making payments… but will allow the continued trading of crypto assets.
- Time magazine will hold ETH on its balance sheet… as part of a deal with crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital to educate readers about the metaverse.
- Macy’s T-Day Parade will launch 9,500 parade-themed NFTs… in memory of those iconic holiday balloons floating down Sixth Avenue in Manhattan. Macy’s is working with the Sweet NFT marketplace on Polygon.
- A pair of Banksy paintings sold for 3,093 ETH in a Sotheby’s auction… marking the first time the auction house has denominated a sale in crypto.
- Blockchain technology has evolved enough… to meet the demands of at least the “mortgage-backed securities and student loans segments of financial markets”,according to the Royal Bank of Canada.
Last Week:
Tuesday: Today in 1914, The Federal Reserve Bank officially opened. Now that we’ve passed the new infrastructure bill – maybe NUE, AA and X can get some love. After all, if you're going to build bridges you need steel and aluminum. With the big push into ‘green and sustainable’, we need to keep an eye on: GRN, KCCA and KRBN. If MSFT makes it over $339 – I’m in. I could see taking a shot at PINS over $48.61 because it seems like it wants to fill the gap.
Wednesday: Is this weakness the start of something worrisome? It could be. We're miles above the 50-day averages and wouldn’t reach them even if we fell for a few days. So, we need to be a little cautious here. November isn't normally a big ‘sell’ month, but what is normal now-a-days?
Thursday: So last night NVDA hit the earnings ball right out of the park, and even raised guidance. That lifted the NASDAQ futures, but the initial jobless claims came out at +268k – and lowered them again. If BTU fades down to its 200-day, I'm a buyer. People are going to understand how valuable coal & uranium are this winter.
Friday: SMFR got upgraded this morning, and the technicals are curling up. I’m in it if it can move over $7.60. I'm not thrilled with the way the overall market is acting. Tech is doing okay, but overall – things are mixed.
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
The US dollar looks like a sh*t coin from crypto's perspective… per MyspaceThom:
- 27 trillion in circulation,
- Unlimited supply,
- Only 1 node,
- 1% of holders own 30% of supply,
- 25% of supply minted in the last 6 months,
- 38m notes printed every day,
- Loses at least 3% of its value every year, and
- It’s been in a bear market since its inception.
OpenSea’s NFT platform has officially mediated… over $10B worth of sales. Over 630,000 traders have contributed to the sales, and the average sale price for an NFT since OpenSea’s launch is $872. The Punks, arguably the origin of all NFTs, had a volume of $1.6B on their 10,000 pieces sold.
"You belong to me"... said Taylor Swift about her own music. T. Swift recently dropped her own / re-recorded version of her “Red” album. Unfortunately, Taylor did not own her ‘masters’ from her first 6 albums. When she was 15, those were signed over to record label ‘Big Machine’, and later sold to Scooter Braun (Bieber’s and Kanye’s ex-manager). Earlier this year, Taylor released a re-recorded version of her album "Fearless.” The new “Fearless”and “Red” are outperforming their originals. Taylor’s path along with NFTs are a real threat to labels because it lets artists keep more money and control. As digital music NFTs, streaming platforms, and social apps make it easier for artists to distribute music – the leverage is finally shifting back to the creators.
Next Week: Big Tech, TSLA and NVDA own these markets.
Big Tech dominance = Creates market Risk
- When you take a step back and look at how Big Tech has dominated over the past 10 years – it’s nothing less than astounding.
- Last week: the financials were down 1% (below their expected move) - mostly due to the new FED chair that is to be announced any day now. Energy was also down significantly below its expected move – due to COVID / lockdown news in Europe. Even the DOW tagged the lower edge of its expected move. But due to TSLA and NVDA, the S&Ps were unchanged on the week. On any given day, 50m options are being traded; therefore, market internals and overnight trades no longer matter.
- Massive rotations will take place = if/when Big Tech sells off. The market is starting to price in this potential volatility impact. We could see more downside to the financials and energy, but it’s not a shortable move. That’s because when TSLA / NVDA gets sold – the financials and energy sectors will be the recipient of that rotation. Another sector that would be a beneficiary of a tech selloff would be ‘small caps’ = the IWM.
Markets Bid-Up Risk Assets:
- The bonds, VIX, and VVIX were all bid higher this past week. Even the Dollar was bid higher because the market views this concentrated tech dominance as an unhealthy arrangement. Even the SKEW (ratio of Puts to Calls) has moved up to 150 – which is the market saying that it sees an impending risk event.
- Big Boy VIX & SKEW are good for premium selling 60 days out. But, if you insist upon being bullish or bearish = use ‘defined risk’ spreads.
SPX Expected Move (EM):
- Last week’s EM was $60.41 … and we stayed within that move. But under that calm surface, the underlying assets were going crazy.
- Next week’s EM (on a holiday week = 3.5 trading days) is almost $55. So, the market smells volatility and has widened its expected move accordingly.
- This wicked bifurcation of the marketplace can only last so long – so please be careful.
Tips:
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- Activision (ATVI = $62.38 / in at $65.41)
- AMC – Holding
- *BitFarms (BITF = $8.18 / in at $5.12)
o Sold Nov, Dec, Feb, May, Dec ‘22: $7.50 & $10 Calls for income,
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $57,900 / in at $4,310)
- Energy Fuels (UUUU = $9.18 / in at $11.29),
o Sold Dec $11, and Jan $11 Calls for income,
- Englobal (ENG = $2.41)
o Sold Dec. $2.50 Calls for income,
- **Ethereum (ETH = $4,250 / in at $310)
- GME – Holding
- **Grayscale Ethereum (ETHE = $42 / in @ $13.44)
- **Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC = $47.00 / in @ $9.41)
- Hyliion (HYLN = $6.94 / in @ $0.32)
o Sold Jan. $9 CCs for income,
- **Loopring (LRC = $2.74 / in at $2.27)
- **Solana (SOL = $216 / in @ $141)
- Uranium Royalty (UROY = $4.77 / in at $4.41)
o Sold Jan $5 Calls for income,
- Yamaha Gold (AUY = $4.32 / in at $4.53)
o Waiting to sell CCs for income.
** Denotes a cryptocurrency
Thoughts: In crypto: Per MCC: Other than BTC / ETH, first consider Level2 scaling tech such as: LRC, MATIC, and AVAX. Second examine blue chip DeFi cycle technologies like: LINK, AAVE, COMP, and YFI.
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
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