This Week in Barrons – 12-2-2012
The
New Normal: “Why work hard for $60,000,
when you can earn $14,000 and sit around collecting another $50,000!”
I
realize that welfare benefits, Medicare, and cutting the spending side of the
fiscal cliff – are all painful topics to discuss. Thanks to James T. - if you
somehow believed that it was the top 1% that is stealing from the middle class,
please realize that it is also those individuals at the bottom of the economic
ladder that rip off the middle class – courtesy of the world's most generous
entitlement system. It’s horrific when
you can do as well working one week a month at minimum wage as you can working a
$60,000/year, fulltime, high stress job.
This chart tells the story, and is fairly self-explanatory:
Money Earned in a Year $3,625 $14,500 $30,000 $60,000
+Payroll
and Fed Inc. Tax (
278) ( 1,225) ( 4,574) (
13,034)
+Childcare
Cost ( 2,400) ( 9,600) ( 9,600) ( 9,600)
+Mississippi
Inc. Tax (
109) ( 725) ( 1,500) ( 3,000)
+Earned
Inc. Tax Credit 1,450
5,020 2,163 0
+Food
Stamps 6,312
6,312 0 0
+National
School Lunche 1,800
1,800 0 0
+Temp.
Assistance(TANF) 2,040
0 0 0
+Medicaid
and CHIP 16,500 16,500 10,890 0
+Section 8
Rent Subsidy 1,450
4,350 0 0
+Utility
Bill Assist (LIHEAP) 1,240
845 0 0
Total
Disposable Inc. $31,630 $37,777 $26,379 $34,366
This chart shows that a one-parent family of three
making $14,500 a year (minimum wage) has more disposable income than a family
making $60,000 a year. Then I realized
that a family provider working only one week a month at minimum wage, makes 92%
of that same $60,000 a year – ugh!
Did you ever wonder why Obama was so focused on
health reform? It is so that those who
have no interest or ability in working can make as much as representatives of
America's endangered, middle class.
- First,
working one week a month, saves a lot on childcare.
- Second,
by only working one week a month you have minimal deductibles and copays – so you
virtually get total medical coverage for next to nothing.
- Third,
the low-income parent will have more energy to attend to the various stresses
of managing a household.
- Fourth,
say that one-week-a-month worker maintains an unreported cash-only job on the
side – then the deal gets even better than the $60k a year job. And some economists estimate that there is $1
Trillion in unreported, earned income each year in the United States.
Now where it gets plainly out of control is if one
throws in Supplemental Security Income (SSI).
SSI pays $8,088/period for each "disabled" family member. A person can be deemed "disabled" if
they are totally lacking in the cultural and educational skills needed to be
employable in the workforce. If you add
$24,262 a year (for three disability checks), now the lowest paid welfare
family would again have far more take-home pay than the $60,000 a year family.
The
topic of wealth redistribution in America is truly a touchy subject. But this chart matches the disposable income
chart recently released by the Congressional Budget Office – who just released
a key paper titled: "Share
of Returns Filed by Low- and Moderate-Income Workers, by Marginal Tax Rate,
Under 2012 Law".
Perhaps
the most disturbing set of figures resides below, and tries to summarize our
unsustainable welfare burden:
- For
every 1.65 people employed in the private sector, 1 person receives welfare
assistance, and
- For every 1.25 people employed in the private sector, 1 person receives welfare
assistance or works for the government.
Currently
there are 110 million privately
employed workers, and there are 88 million welfare recipients and government
workers – rising rapidly.
As
much as everyone keeps throwing stones at the top of our social order, the
facts show us that individuals at the bottom of the entitlement food chain also
make out like a bandits. On
our path to socialistic welfare – we’ve long surpassed capitalistic/communist
China – because in capitalist/communist China you actually need to work to
eat.
The
Market:
-
Monday was a surprisingly mild day for profit-taking day. After a blistering run during the holiday
week, a bit of "let’s take some off the table" was certainly
appropriate.
-
Tuesday dawned with flat futures and I thought we could
either plunge back down, or "hold the line" and work off the excess. There was a lot of overhead resistance to slog
through in order to move higher. The
only reason most of the traders weren't selling was because they knew if a
"deal" is announced concerning our “fiscal cliff” a lot of folks that
sold dividend stocks would rush back in, and they didn't want to miss that. But Senator Reid came out and said that he wasn’t
seeing much progress toward the fiscal cliff, and that sent stocks down for the
day.
-
Wednesday was the forever reversal day. If you spend enough time looking at the
market, you begin to notice that often Wednesdays reverse what ever happened on
Monday and Tuesday. In fact it’s so common, it’s termed "reversal
Wednesdays". In any event, Wednesday
dipped in the morning as we heard some rumblings about the "cliff",
and soon we were testing support at the 12,800 level (an area I said would be
important). Then Boehner made some
comments about how he's optimistic about the cliff and up we went. So, from a morning dip of 100 points we ended
the day positive by 107.
-
The remainder of the week was spent treading water ending
with the 13,025 line for the DOW, and the 1,416 line on the S&P.
The
market has spent 2 days above the DOW 200-day moving average of 12,994, and
that’s a good thing. That should mean
they’re willing to push this market up and challenge the next resistance at
13,100 and then 13,200 on the DOW – 1,426 on the S&P. I’m leaning long on the side that has traders
not being left on the sidelines when a ‘fiscal cliff’ deal is announced. If that happens we should be challenging the
October highs and the all-time highs by late January. Unfortunately the markets are dominated by
‘fiscal cliff’ news right now, so it’s great for day trading, but will cause
some ‘angst’ for longer term investors for sure.
Tips:
My current short-term holds are:
-
AAPL – in at 525.35 (currently 586.30) – stop
at 572.00
-
DBA – in at 28.30 (currently 29.45) – stop at
entry
-
SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 22.89) – no stop
yet
-
GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently
166.05) – no stop ($1,710.90 per physical ounce), AND
-
SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 32.44)
– no stop ($33.20 per physical ounce).
To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades
– my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the
BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of
noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources
and those he interviews. You can learn
more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>
.
Please write to <rfc@getabby.com>
to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be
reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference
.
If you'd like to view RF's actual stock
trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter
follower - "taylorpamm" is my
handle.
If you'd like to see RF in action -
teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he
gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0
To unsubscribe please refer to the
bottom of the email.
Views expressed are provided for
information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer,
an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of,
or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not
registered and licensed brokers. This
message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is
intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute
an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice
can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering
document. Past performance is not
indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important
disclosures at the end of each article.
Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an
offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson
and Associates.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN
INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING
HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT
SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF
INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS
MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING
INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Alternative investment performance can
be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her
investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total
trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor
applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification
and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an
investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to
develop.
All material presented herein is
believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions
expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or
the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.
Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.
R.F. Culbertson
No comments:
Post a Comment