RF's Financial News

Sunday, March 10, 2024

This Week in Barrons: May 10th, 2024

Why can’t we say: I don’t know OR I’m not sure? That applies to: customer service, our bureaucrats, and our teachers. Per Seth G: It can always be followed with: “Would you like my educated opinion?” or “Could you give me more context to go on?” Proud and confident bluffing is never helpful. But, it’s not surprising that ‘bluffing’ is ChatGPT’s default behavior – because Art Imitates Life. The real issue is – bluffing is a lousy way to build trust. As someone most recently told me: ‘Soon, the only way I’m going to trust you – is On-Chain!’

Grace, Kindness, and Respect… are words that people will remember you by – long after the wins, loses, and details of the negotiations are forgotten. There are many ways to leave a legacy, but resiliency coupled with gratitude and constantly spreading goodwill – have earned a place at the top of my list.

The Market:

Gold & Bitcoin are simultaneously hitting all-time-highs (ATHs)… and that’s not a coincidence. Gold hitting ATHs will go a long way toward getting the next leg higher started for precious metals. Gold has held up well in the face of a stronger Dollar and elevated yields. Historically, if precious metals are doing well, you're likely to see (a) silver outperform, (b) a lethargic equity market, and (c) digital assets come alive.

Per Anthony P: Every retirement portfolio should include Bitcoin.

- Bitcoin is a non-correlated asset… and this is the holy grail for any portfolio. Bitcoin’s current 180-day correlation to the S&P 500 is ZERO and the correlation to the dollar index is near zero as well. Investing in non-correlated assets will reduce portfolio risk and increase portfolio returns.

- Bitcoin is risky, but offers a corresponding asymmetric return. Which means that there’s more upside than downside when owning the asset. For example: the downside (loss of capital) is capped at the total amount of capital invested, yet the upside is ~100X if/when Bitcoin becomes a gold equivalent.

InfoBits:

Apple was fined nearly $2B by the EU… which sided with Spotify in finding that the Apple Store restricted competition for music-streaming. Apple will appeal.
Anthropic launches Claude 3… with better test scores than OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4. Could be the “New Kid on the Block”.
Subscription Fees are on the rise… as Walmart+ subscribers spend 2X more than non-subscribers and membership continues to grow. Target’s sales fell for the first time in 8 years – so they’re launching a subscription service.
NOT Too Big To Flail… as New York Community Bancorp received a $1B cash equity infusion from: former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Citadel’s CEO Ken Griffin, and players to be named later. NYCB reported a Q4 loss due to shaky commercial real estate loans and bad management.
The average, US adult FICO credit score fell last year… for the first time in over a decade. Americans are struggling to repay record-high credit-card debt.
TikTok’d Off… A bill that would force TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance to sell off the app or be blocked from US app stores – made it out of a bipartisan House committee by a vote of 50 to 0. TikTok said it’s the equivalent to an outright ban.
Instagram surpassed TikTok… in worldwide downloads last month.
Participants in Novo Nordisk’s new Amycretin trial… lost +13% of their body weight in 12 weeks. That’s over 2X faster than Wegovy – their other weight-loss drug.

Crypto-Bytes:

Bitcoin springs to life after a long winter… as billions pour into spot ETFs ahead of the ‘halving’.
Gold prices are moving first… and Bitcoin follows
I listen to only a few people when it comes to crypto because. a) They understood it from the beginning, and b) They took the time to explain it to me. Per Howard L:
o Was I smart enough to buy every dip? Nope.
o Did I sell some along the way? Yep.
o Do I regret selling some? Absolutely.
o Is that my fault that I sold? Yep – I take full responsibility for my actions.
o Do I know what’s next? Nope, but last I checked the people that I listened to in the beginning about BUYING – have NOT SOLD any.
What is Bitcoin halving? Bitcoin (BTC) is designed to be a scarce, inflation-resistant asset. One of the key technical mechanisms it uses to maintain its design is ‘halving’. Halving is when the amount of new bitcoin created by bitcoin mining is reduced by half, and this happens about every 4 years. Currently, 6.25 BTC are mined every 10 minutes. After April’s halving, that number will drop to 3.125. Bitcoin prices spiked following the last two halvings, and that is one of the reasons traders are buying BTC now. However, JPM analysts suggest that the ‘halving effect’ has already been priced-in by traders, and BTC will fall to ~$42,000 post-halving. Other analysts suggest that halving’s reduced supply will be met by even higher ETF demand – and will result in a rally. Let the games begin.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday: This week, Powell talks to Congress, and we also get the Jobs Report. In terms of where to invest, I’m loving crypto, but for those who don’t: energy may be in play as OPEC has kept their production cuts in place. AAPL has been very weak as it’s being sued by the EU over anti-trust violations. The Gold Miners are set to move, and SKYT is looking good over $12.40.

Wednesday: Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony starts today. It's his biannual report to Congress on our FED’s monetary policy and economic goals. Powell will deliver an inflation assessment, discuss our FED’s view on interest rates, and take questions from Congress. If Powell doves out – markets will go higher, but if he holds the line – we may see more pouting. Take a look at NOK as it’s trying to get over its 200-day @ $3.64.

Thursday: Yesterday Powell turned pretty dovish, and the market loved it. Today he delivers the same speech (basically) to the banking committee. The initial jobless report came in higher than estimates. That means that the economy is slowing, people are getting laid off, and it pushes our FED toward cut rates. PLTR is breaking out – watch if over $26.75.

Friday: Today’s Jobs Report had the new jobs created number coming-in at 275k, while the market was hoping for under 200k. But:

The previous two months' numbers were revised lower by 167k jobs.
The Birth/death model added 151k fake jobs to the report.
The unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%, and wage growth was just 0.1% MoM.
And, although we created 275k new jobs, the total number employed declined by 184k.

Gold is up another $20 this morning, so watch the GDX and GDXJ (miners). Speaking of miners, EU is a newer uranium outfit that may be getting ready to rumble.

Morgan’s Moments…

Do you agree with Anthony P. that… Bitcoin is returning to the spotlight due to: (a) an industry-wide spring cleaning (the FTX trial), (b) regulatory approvals, and (c) Main Street buy-in? And experts are expecting the SEC to approve a spot Ethereum ETF in May – so FOMO may not be limited to just bitcoin anymore.

Morgan: ‘Yes.’ As Dylan LeClair points out: bitcoin’s price has doubled in 18 days or less – 3 of the last 4 times that it’s put in an all-time-high.

Bitcoin’s price is up +20% in the last week, +60% in the last month, and +200% in the last year.
Bitcoin’s halving is less than 50 days away – leading to further demand outstripping incoming supply by at least Twenty-to-One. We have seen 10 to 12X more demand than what the network produced for the last 2 months. So, a surge in demand (ETFs) coupled with a supply shortage (Halving) will favor bitcoin holders – and that should continue bitcoin’s price appreciation.
Lastly, BlackRock has filed regulatory paperwork to funnel some of their Strategic Income Opportunities Funds into their bitcoin ETF. That’s a $36B conservative bond fund, and it signals a new source of capital inflows into bitcoin.

- It’s difficult to construct an argument that is not bullish for bitcoin and other digital assets in the short-to-medium term.

Morgan’s Top 3:

Tip #1: Ethereum (ETH = buy-buy-buy),
Tip #2: Polygon (MATIC), and
Tip #3: Chainlink (LINK)

Next Week: The Selling is Different this Time…

Background: Stocks were down on Friday, but that really doesn’t do enough justice to the insane price action that we witnessed. Meta was off more than 1.5%, but Nvidia got crushed – to put it mildly. Gold and Bitcoin had a much better week than NVDA as they produced all-time-highs. Next Tuesday we have a ton of inflation & economic news like CPI and core inflation MoM, and Friday is Triple-Witching.

NVDA is moving markets: Very simply, what triggered Nvidia’s ~100-point decline on Friday, was a pre-market 20% spike in their implied volatility. That shut-down buying NVDA CALL options because they were just too expensive. The Pros immediately switched to SELLING those same CALL options due to the high premiums – and the stock was just decimated. Tip #4: Fair Warning: This same behavior could easily repeat itself on Monday morning if an onslaught of Nvidia CALL option dip-buyers re-enter the marketplace.

Lack of sell-side correlation: Make no mistake, NVDA still had a great week – gaining $60. But watch the rotations and the Advance/Decline line to see if we get any across-the-board selling next week.

Gold, Bonds, and Bitcoin… are all higher. Bonds are once again being bought – causing interest rates to decline. With Gold and bitcoin making new all-time-highs, money is leaving mega-cap tech stocks and moving into more defensive sectors. Apple is falling off a cliff when you compare it to Gold and/or Bitcoin. Tip #5: Don’t fight the tape, and look at these other asset classes more closely. This isn't last year’s ‘Just buy stocks’ kind of market. Take what you’re being given, and right now, digital assets and Gold are working.

Volatility returns with Markets at all-time-highs: On Friday, the S&Ps touched an all-time-high, but this time volatility went higher along with it. Volatility watchers are seeing trouble on the horizon, and that’s worth noting.

SPX Expected Move (EM)

Last Week’s EM was $64. We touched both the lower and upper edges of the EM before ending the week unchanged.
Next Week’s EM = $82. Put on your big-boy pants, because there’s chum in the water, and the sharks are circling.

TIPS:

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

13-Week Treasuries @ 5.3%
PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $2186/oz. & Silver @ $24.5/oz.
**Bitcoin (BTC = $68,300 / in at $4,310)
**Ethereum (ETH = 3,920 / in at $310)
**ChainLink (LINK = $20 / in at $7.78)
**COIN – Coinbase = ($257 / in at $125)
**MARA – Marathon Digital = ($23.4 / in at $12)
o Sold June $40 Covered Calls
DECK – Deckers ($912 / in at $882)
DKFG - DraftKings ($42 / in at $41.5)
**IBIT – Blackrock’s BTC ETF ($40 / in at $24)
INDA – India ETF ($52 / in at $50)
o BOT Nov, +$53 / -$55 CALL Spread
MC – LVMH ($53 / in at $57
META – Meta ($506 / in at $458)
**RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($12.4 / in at $12.5)
o Sold June $25 Covered Calls
**MATIC – Polygon ($1.14 / in at $0.94)
o Sell it when it gets to $8 / share

** Crypto-Currency aware

Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

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Sunday, March 3, 2024

This Week in Barrons: March 3rd, 2024

Click here to Listen / Learn: https://youtu.be/cNzH19D6s_I?feature=shared

Q: I used to float, now I just fall down.

I used to know, but I’m not sure now.

What I was made for.

What was I made for?

A: You were made for THIS…

Q: Was I made for entrepreneurship? Entrepreneurship does not favor the greedy as it is NOT grounded in wealth creation, but rather in innovation and making-a-difference. Those that succeed have learned to put their employee’s and customer’s needs – first. Entrepreneurial success is found on the fringes – the areas that have been left unguarded. Spend your spare time building a remarkable original – because it’s nearly impossible to create a great sequel. Virtually all of today’s bestsellers are surprise-bestsellers. Are you made to be an entrepreneur? A: Unfortunately, the answer lies in the jig-saw puzzle: and you never get to see the complete picture – until you’re done.

Q: Was I made for investing? There’s a consensus among investors that someone out thereknows the market’s next move. Nobody will tell you directly, but that secret someone is you. It’s your salary, 401k, IRA, pension fund, and your investments. The SELLERS are: Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Jamie Dimon, and most corporate insiders. The BUYERS are: Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, and anyone else trying to play catch up with the averages. The only problem is: BUYERS are buying what the people ‘In-The-Know’ are SELLING – and they’re buying it with YOUR money. The key to learning to invest your own money, is to conquer your fear-of-failure. A: Worst case, buy the SPY or QQQ ETF – and you’ll be a better investor than 85% of those other imposters.

The Market:

Click here to Listen / Learn: https://youtu.be/lNEX0fbGePg?feature=shared

“You do the math”… Over the past 6 months:

- The average return for the Top 200 Cryptos = +154%,

- The average return for the Top 25 Cryptos = +393%, and

- The percentage of all Bitcoin supply that is now owner-profitable = +95%

This type of performance is rare in financial markets, and it’s all due to increased demand associated with the new spot bitcoin ETFs. Demand for new bitcoin is equivalent to 9,510 bitcoin/day – and we’re only making 900 new bitcoin/day (soon to be 450/day). According to Anthony P: there is ~10 TIMES the daily demand for bitcoin than what the network can produce. That imbalance of supply and demand is even more shocking because we are now 45 days after the official ETF launch. The sport Bitcoin ETFs have officially crossed over $6B in cumulative net inflows – making them the single greatest launch of any ETF in history. Are you made for crypto investing?

Forecasting Sales: When you find your first dozen people that are ~50% engaged in what you’re offering – do NOT count them as 6 sales. Per Seth G: You get ZERO credit for just showing up and ZERO credit for less than 100% engagement. Yes, I know that we’re all busy, we all have too many options, and we’re all constantly tempted to do less than what is required. But, getting less than 100% of someone’s focus and care, is like getting ZERO percent – so count it as such.

InfoBits:

- Apple broke thru its moving averages to the downside... as the market wakes up to the idea that Apple is a shrinking business.

- Jeff Bezos sold 50m shares of Amazon ($8.5B)... and saved $600m in taxes thanks to his move to Miami.

- There are no winners fighting inflation: If you keep interest rates high – you push the economy into a recession. If you cut interest rates – you risk inflation coming back and ruining your legacy.

- With the National Debt this high… +40% of all personal income tax dollars will be spent on servicing that debt instead of: better education, defense, infrastructure, and health services.

- EA gaming will lay off… 5% of its global workforce. Expedia is cutting ~10%, and Supermassive games is giving 27% of its staff the-boot.

- U.S. consumer confidence fell for the first time in 3 months… as worries shifted toward jobs and the upcoming presidential race.

- After a decade of R&D, Apple pulled the plug on its EV project… and surprised ~2,000 employees who were working on the project.

- In a post-pandemic world, Novavax plummeted 27%... after revenues and earnings missed expectations, and their forecasts for 2024 were flat to lower.

- Keep your head on a swivel… as Waymo has received approval to operate its autonomous taxis in Los Angeles, and on San Francisco’s freeways & Peninsula.

Crypto-Bytes:

- Tip #1: MATIC: keep buying it over $1… with a $8 target.

- Tip #2: ETH: keep buying it over $2k… with a $4.7k target, and then $70k.

- Tip #3: BTC: keep buying it over $46k… with a target of $65k, and then $250k.

- Trust, but Verify… because the blockchain will soon be the only way to verify anything.

- JPMorgan’s crypto forecast expects higher prices… because JPM has just flipped their view on crypto due to: BTC’s upcoming halving, ETH’s chances of an ETF approval, and a global buyer resurgence. Ya think?

- Ben Goertzel (AGIX’s visionary) is on the brink of unveiling… a “baby AGI” prototype. It will be both open source and decentralized to ensure AGI’s AI benefits humanity without falling under corporate or gov’t control.

- BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF is like printing money… because Bitcoin ETFs are officially the fastest growing investment vehicle – ever!

- Can bitcoin breach and remain above the $64,000 level? Now that’s the REAL $64,000 Question!

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday: Keep an eye on the chip sector, as Taiwan Semi’s founder said that increased demand will require additional chip fabrication plants. The chip list should include: ASML, TSM, NVDA, LRCX, SMCI, AVGO, MRVL, AMAT, and AMD. If this tech momentum continues, we have SNOW reporting on Wednesday – and if it's impressive then it could soar. I may buy an out-of-the-money CALL spread on SNOW tomorrow.

Tuesday: Ahead of the GDP data on Wednesday and the PCE inflation data on Thursday, the Kansas City FED President Schmid is advocating for patience on cutting rates – citing above target inflation and a hot job market. He said that further disinflation would need to come from services, and wage growth would need to moderate. Anything attached to bitcoin has gone parabolic so watch: MARA, RIOT, MSTR, and COIN.

Wednesday: Bitcoin touched $64,990, and then the crypto exchange Coinbase crashed. In a matter of 15 minutes, Bitcoin went from $64.99k to $59k – losing $100B. Let’s see MARA’s (a Bitcoin miner) earnings numbers tonight – in order to see which way the train is moving in the morning.

Thursday: The big news is that the PCE inflation numbers came in FED friendly – and the market loved it. Spending was lower than they feared, and the core prices came in at estimates.

Friday:

- 2 stocks = 20% of the Nasdaq 100, and 7 stocks = ~50% of that same index.

- 5 stocks = 23% of the S&P 500, and 10 stocks = ~30% of that same index.

When you see the S&Ps gain 26-points, don't think that a lot of the S&P stocks had a decent day. Nope, reality tells us that less than 25 stocks had a great day, and the rest were flat or red. It’s not healthy to have a handful of the most powerful corporations in the world – dictating an entire market.

Morgan’s Moments…

Why are so many people buying Bitcoin right now? It could be as easy as: institutions wanting to make money, and now that they can buy the best performing asset over the last 15 years – they are going to buy as much as they can. I’m also wondering if people are buying bitcoin as an inflation hedge – because we all see inflation coming back.

1. In 2020, Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller went on CNBC and said: “Inflation is Coming! We’re buying bitcoin because it will be the fastest horse in an inflation-based economy.” Their prediction was spot-on. Bitcoin’s price was around $8,000 during the summer of 2020 and inflation was under 2%. By March 2021 (less than 1 year later) bitcoin was trading at $64,000.

2. Currently our FED has worked tirelessly to get inflation under control. But as inflation ticks higher, spot Bitcoin ETFs give more capital the option to invest in bitcoin than at any other time in history. Bitcoin analyst ‘Checkmate’ explained: “The current rally is different than in 2021. In 2021, it was the levered longs that were getting wiped out. Now, it’s short-sellers that continue to bet against the prevailing uptrend, that are getting liquidated as a result.”

3. Will Clemente wrote this week: “Anyone that’s bought a Bitcoin ETF is now up at least 15%, as it trades just 25% away from price discovery. Any group waiting to see whether the spot Bitcoin ETFs will have an impact – will soon become a momentum buyer – then the all-time-high breakout buyers will follow. It’s just human nature.”

Morgan’s Top 4 Tips:

- Tip #1: MATIC (Buy @ $1 … Sell @ $8)

- Tip #2: ETH (Buy – Buy – Buy)

- Tip #3: BTC (Buy … Demand > Supply)

- Tip #4: LINK (Buy @ $20 … Sell @ $70)

Next Week: When the Selling Starts…

What’s holding markets together? While you don’t want to get too fixated on seasonality, but the playbook for the year is: UP in Jan/Feb, DOWN in Mar/Apr, and then WOBBLY UP for the rest of this election year. Markets tend to be the ultimate bandwagon, and that’s dangerous because without a correction – risk continues to move higher. It doesn’t take long for one big, definitive sell order… to be followed by tens of millions of others. After all, this week both Google and Apple moved twice their expected move lower – leaving only Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia to keep the market from breaking apart.

Dow vs S&P vs Nasdaq: Speaking of valuations, while the Mag 5 are chasing the summit, small and mid-cap stocks are still cheap – at least on a relative basis. One market bull case calls for a generation rotation and catch-up into small and mid-cap stocks. But currently we’re working the other way as just 5 companies make up ~25% of the S&Ps $43T market cap. Over the past 30-days, even the DOW has been relatively flat when compared to the QQQ and the SPY – that have moved appreciably higher. Therefore, any trading momentum is missing outside of the Mag 5 stocks (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, and META).

An Energy / Oil bid is inflationary…. I’m not promoting buying energy stocks just yet, but I wouldn’t count them out. The oil and energy sectors are both catching a bid right now, but that is awfully inflationary (oil is ~$80/barrel).

Because 5 Companies are 25% of a $43T S&P500… realize that where Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta go – so goes the market. Tip #5: Therefore, use Defined Risk trades as you trade directionally – CALL or PUT spreads for example. The market has effectively lost its grip on reality with everybody turning their investment firepower toward a handful of products. Tip #6: This reinforces the Bitcoin ETF popularity – buy it if only as a hedge against the general, marketplace craziness.

SPX Expected Move (EM):

- Last Week: EM = $64 … and we finished inside the EM.

- Next Week: EM = $65 … but we have a lot more economic data being released.

TIPS:

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

- 13-Week Treasuries @ 5.3%

- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $2090/oz. & Silver @ $23/oz.

- **Bitcoin (BTC = $63,400 / in at $4,310)

- **Ethereum (ETH = 3,450 / in at $310)

- **ChainLink (LINK = $21 / in at $7.78)

- **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($27 / in at $12)

o Sold April $32 Covered Calls

- **COIN – Coinbase = ($205 / in at $125)

- DECK – Deckers ($903 / in at $882)

- DKFG - DraftKings ($43.5 / in at $41.5)

- **IBIT – Blackrock’s BTC ETF ($36 / in at $24)

- INDA – India ETF ($52 / in at $50)

o BOT Nov, +$53 / -$55 CALL Spread

- MC – LVMH ($54 / in at $57)

- META – Meta ($502 / in at $458)

- **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($14.4 / in at $12.5)

o Sold April $20 Covered Calls

- **MATIC – Polygon ($1.07 / in at $0.94)

o Sell it when it gets to $8 / share

- BOT Protection (Just-In-Case):

o BOT the AAPL Mar, +$175 / -$170 PUT Spread,

o BOT the IGV Mar, +$400 / -$395 PUT Spread,

o BOT the QQQ Mar, +$410 / -$405 PUT Spread, and

o BOT the XLK Mar, +$190 / -$185 PUT Spread.