This Week in Barrons: January 1st, 2023

   What separates good companies from bad ones is that the good ones have learned how to: ‘Feed the tuna fish mayonnaise’.  Good companies continue to sell their existing customers more products and services that will lower their customer’s costs, and/or increase their revenues – immediately.  In a world where ‘customer acquisition costs’ have skyrocketed, good companies have figured out that your existing customers are so much easier to reach, communicate with, and sell.  Good companies learn how to increase the perceived value of their existing offerings.  Entrepreneurs often try and ‘squeeze the air’ out of every customer conversation, when (in fact) they should be extending its life – further listening to and cementing the customer relationship.  

   In 2012 PG posted: “As I look back, the unsuccessful entrepreneur was NOT less intelligent, but was just NOT eager to listen and follow advice.  Unsuccessful startups are killed by: (a) entrepreneurs that lack resourcefulness (money is no substitute for: vision, passion, and speed-to-market), (b) entrepreneurs that refuse to ‘go the extra mile’ (small companies exist to serve customers - period), and (c) entrepreneurs that mis-calculate where all of the dominos will fall.  The key is listening, closing sales, and delivering product – urgently.  The rest is secondary.”

The Market: 

   There are a lot of headwinds out there.  Consider that in 2022, Amazon, Tesla, Netflix, and META – all lost over half their value.  It’s called a ‘recession’, and it’s a natural part of the economic cycle.  ‘Recessions’ result in a stronger, leaner, and more productive economy.  Bear markets have their own ways of building wealth, and when this one ends – it will present a generational opportunity to those who have the capital to take advantage of it.

   As HM writes: “In my 53 years in the investment world, I’ve seen many economic cycles, pendulum swings, bubbles and crashes – but I remember only 2 real sea changes.  I think we may be in the midst of a 3^rd one.  Declining interest rates gave birth to: (a) investor optimism, (b) aggressive investment vehicles, and (c) 40 years of stock market growth.  I believe that declining interest rates played the greatest role in: (a) the economic growth of the U.S. (b) gains in technology, productivity and management techniques; and (c) globalization. Lately we’ve gone from the low-rate world of 2009-21 to a full-rate world.  Investors can now get solid returns from credit instruments, and no longer have to rely on riskier investments to achieve their overall returns.  Given the current environment is very different from what it was over the last 40 years, then the investment strategies that worked the best over those periods may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead.  That is the 3^rd sea change.”

   The 'sea change' is real.  Everyone is hoping for a short-mild recession, but what if the ‘hangover’ lasts as long as the party – 40 years?  Most investment professionals only began their careers after 2009, and have limited experience on how the credit, equity, and currency markets are all interconnected.  Don’t fear, as people didn’t stop investing in energy because of Enron - crypto won’t collapse due to the ‘House-of-Cards’ that SBF built.  But for the first time in 40 years, you will need to learn how to fish out of a new pond – the ‘debt pool’.  It’s a place where shiny objects are replaced by: time, discipline, and dedication. 

InfoBits:

-       The Philadelphia FED claims…   only 10,500 net new jobs were created in Q2, instead of the +1m that our Govt’s Jobs Reports told us.

-       Auto repos are on the rise…  loan defaults are flirting with record numbers, and 26 nations have inverted yield curves.

-       The CFPB ordered Wells Fargo to pay $3.7B…   for “widespread mismanagement of auto loans, mortgages and deposit accounts.”

-       Zimbabwe’s Minister announced a ban…  on exporting unprocessed lithium.

-       Netflix's early numbers suggest…  cheaper (ad-supported) options will cannibalize existing premium customers.  Be careful what you wish for.

-       USPS is spending $9B for 66K electric vehicles.   So the strategy is, if you can’t run your business profitably … get new, shiny stuff to play with?

-       David Tepper told the world that because of all the rate hikes…   he's "leaning short" equities. 

-       Disney is on track for its worst performing year since 1974.

-       TSLA is on track for its worst-performing…  Mo, Qtr, Yr - ever. 

-       GasBuddy reports that gasoline will be over $4/gallon by May.

-       Pending home sales fell -4% in November.  The pending home sales index is near the 2010 low – following its 6^th consecutive monthly decline.

Crypto-Bytes:

-       Binance.US has agreed to buy Voyager Digital’s crypto assets…   for +$1B and “aims to return crypto to customers in kind.”

-       Coinbase is now worth LESS… than the total market value of dogecoin.

-       FTX co-founder Gary Wang and Alameda Research co-CEO Caroline Ellison… plead guilty to federal charges and are cooperating with prosecutors.

-       SBF met with the writer of ‘The Big Short’ at his parent’s house.

-       Bitcoin underperformed stocks and gold for the first time since 2018.

-       FTX co-founders SBF and Gary Wang…  borrowed $546m from Alameda Research to buy an ownership stake in Robinhood (HOOD).

-       Gemini is being sued by investors…   for offering interest-earning crypto products that should have been registered with the SEC. 

-       The Bahamian Securities Commission…  has taken custody of $3.5B of FTX deposits – due to the fear of hackers and/or former employees taking control of the funds themselves.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was): 

Monday:  My theory has been that they've realized the year has been crap, and instead of pushing it higher in the last two weeks, maybe they just take the tax losses and wait on next year.  Investor sentiment has finally shifted to bad news is actually bad news for the markets and the economy.  Some of the miners are catching a bid in here.  Keep an eye on AGI – over $10.45 and SAND over $5.60.

Tuesday:  Japan, our biggest U.S. debt buyer, is now worried about inflation, and they are widening their interest rate bands to take that into account.  So, all the people thinking that Powell is going to pivot and cut rates in ‘23 – just got nuked.  Secondly, after years of not needing our FED’s overnight lending window, our banks have been lining up for handouts for a few weeks now – which suggests that our banks are more stressed than what they’re letting on.

Wednesday:  The real tell will be the S&P 3800.  If by any chance we lose that, this market pukes.  An awful lot of derivatives are based on that 3800 S&P floor.  If they don't come out with guns blazin’ tomorrow morning, and get us back up and over that level – they’ll probably sell us hard right into Friday's close. The DOW had been defending its 50-day moving average for a week, but it lost it in a big way today.

Thursday:  Last week David Tepper was on CNBC and said that because of all the rate hikes, he's "leaning short" equities.

Friday:  2022 was a rough year that sent the S&P 500 down -19% YTD, the DOW down -8.5% YTD, the Nasdaq down -33% YTD, and the Russell 2000 down -21% YTD.

AMA (Ask Me Anything…)

Forecasts for 2023:

1.   A recession is inevitable…  for the U.S., U.K. and E.U.

2.   Precious Metals (+Copper) will go +20%...  due to green energy and China.

3.   Oil will go +$100/barrel…  and +$110 in 2^nd half of 2023.

4.   Banks will turn conservative…  after loan defaults hit 5%.

5.   Unemployment will hit 5.5% in Q2…   and that will curtail retail spending. 

6.   On-shoring will continue…  keeping CapEx strong.

7.   China will ‘really’ re-open…  in the 2^nd half of 2023.

8.   The S&P will end ’23 at 4,000…  and our FED will peak in mid-2023.

9.   The 2-Year and 10-Year Notes will end 2023 lower…  at 3.25%.

Next Week:  Volatility will continue…

Can markets handle another YEAR of Extreme Volatility:

-       Coming out of the 2009 Financial Crisis…  We received legislation (Dodd Frank), economics directives (Volcker Rule), and all of the 0% interest + QE programs that followed for the next 13 years.  

-       For real market making to work…  market makers will need to borrow money in order to buy or short stock.  Previous to 2022, the cost of carrying/borrowing was low (0%), but not anymore (+6.25%).  This will cause market makers to NOT hold as much stock as they did before – which is going to allow for increased volatility going forward because that ‘dealer protection buffer’ will be gone.

-       Our FED is swinging a big, non-0% bat…  higher rates are causing market making firms to NOT hold as much stock (specifically over weekends and holidays) – and that’s going to cause a volatility storm.  As long as the FED’s rates are above 4%, you can’t escape continued volatility and a 2023 market roller-coaster.

What will work going forward:

-       You’re going to want to SELL ‘back-month’ PREMIUM…  due to the massive number of weekly breaches and 2-Sigma moves.  That simply means that you need to sell premium 90 to 120 days out, hold it for about 30 to 45 days, and buy it back (for 50% less) – all due to option decay.

SPX Expected Move (EM):

-       Last Week’s $71 EM (for a 4-day wk)… and we only moved $5.

-       Next Week’s $84 EM (for a 4-day wk)… but our markets remain data dependent and we have CPI, FED minutes, and the Jobs Report on Friday.

Tips:  

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

-       PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1,830 & Silver @ $24.18 /oz.

-       AGG – iShares Bond Fund: (AGG = $97 / in at $93)

-       BIV – Vanguard Bond Fund (BIV = $74.32 / in at $74.54)

-       90-Day Treasuries @ 4.6%

-       BA (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$182.50 / -$180 PUT Spread

-       **Bitcoin (BTC = $16,500 / in at $4,310)

-       **Ethereum (ETH = $1,195 / in at $310)

-       CAT (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Feb: +$200 / -$190 PUT Spread

-       GME – DRS’d and HODL

-       GS (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$340 / -$330 PUT Spread

-       IBM (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$130 / -$120 PUT Spread

-       Innerscope (INND = $0.006 / in at $0.0052)

-       SBUX (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$85 / -$75 PUT Spread

-       XLF (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Feb: +$32 / -$30 PUT Spread

o   BOT Feb: +37 PUT

Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>. 

 

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.

 

If you'd like to view R.F.'s actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a StockTwits follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

 

If you'd like to see R.F. in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0   

Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk   

Investing = https://youtu.be/zIIlk6DlSOM

Marketing = https://youtu.be/p0wWGdOfYXI

Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

 

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

 

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

 

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

 

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

 

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

 

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

 

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons: Dec 18th, 2022

   “This was only a matter of time,” said a senior fusion scientist at the National Ignition Facility of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California – where the fusiondiscovery was made.  Whenever fusion arrives in a workable fashion, the entire world changes – forever, and for the better.  Geopolitics and the axis of power will be quickly rewritten.  Climate issues will be transformed.  Our ability to feed, house and enrich the lives of billions of people will be amplified.

   Last week (for the first time), scientists successfully used a nuclear-fusion reaction to generate 25% more energy than what was required for its creation – i.e. the ‘final total’ was larger than the ‘sum of its parts’.  Nuclear fusion would unlock limitless, carbon-free power.  It’s a $40T addressable market.  Constellation Energy views what happened last week as: “The biggest scientific advancement in 30 years.  It’s a short-term step, but a long-term leap.”  Nobody cares that the market damn-near crashed when you get to say that a couple weeks before Christmas 2022 – we proved that ‘Nuclear-Fusion’ worked.

The Market: 

   Wealth creation became too big a focus of an entrepreneur’s journey.  Everybody forgot that it’s Passion and Goodwill that are the drivers of the entrepreneurship bus.  Entrepreneurs need to make a difference.  Goodwill propels the entrepreneur toward live events, where they get to deliver their narrative to groups of willing listeners.  Their stories start with: “Taking risks - Not listening to experts - Challenging Wall Street and Main Street – and Not worrying about a master life plan… are all okay.”   Goodwill is the Balance Sheet item that reflects that ‘making a difference’ attitude.  Long before Silicon Valley’s ‘Fake it till you Make it’ mantra, the entrepreneur was out talking with anyone who would listen.  As ‘Raising Money’ fades into ‘Finding Paying Customer #1’, we will return to a world guided by passion rather than greed.  That will allow us to decouple productivity from valuation.  Entrepreneurship is best implemented one step at a time: doing what they love and loving what they’re doing.

InfoBits:

-       "There is a slowdown happening – no question about it.”… Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf.

-       “It’s a hurricane, but right now it’s kind of sunny.  It’s right down the road, coming our way.  We just don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm.”… JPM CEO Jaime Dimon

-       73% of professional / institutional / traders are short.  Retail traders (on the other hand) are 56% long.  That’s what makes a market!

-       Global venture funding was down 69% YoY in November.

-       South Korea has found an anti-aging solution…   Sign me up!

-       Wendy’s fast-food prices jumped 35% YoY.

-       Gold, Silver, and Platinum have all hit new 5-month highs.

-       Elon Musk is no longer the richest man on earth…  as his fortune has tumbled over $100B since January.

-       Google employees are concerned about ChatGPT.  Google said that they have those capabilities, but launching that product would jeopardize their current business model.

-       China will buy oil and natural gas in yuan.  Most of the world’s oil trade is tied to the US dollar, and this switch will lead to a decline in USD’s dominance.

-       November’s average, 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.3%...  double Jan’s rate.  

-       Netflix’s “Harry and Meghan” set a record…  for debut hours watched.

-       The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 50bps rate hike…  and hinted that 2 more consecutive 50bps hikes were on the way.

-       November’s retail spending showed its largest decline all year…  -0.6% MoM despite Black Friday and the holidays.

-       Spending at bars and restaurants was UP 0.9% in Nov...   despite the retail downturn.  Maybe consumers are drinking away their fears?

Crypto-Bytes:

-       SBF was arrested and charged with… “defrauding investors and orchestrating a massive, years-long fraud, diverting billions of dollars of the trading platform’s customer funds for his own personal benefit and to help grow his crypto empire."

-       FTX CEO John J. Ray III told the House Financial Services Committee that… “FTX under SBF went on a $5B spending binge that commingled FTX’s assets with those of his hedge fund – Alameda Research.”

-       Kevin O’Leary told the U.S. Senate Banking Committee: “I am of the opinion that crypto, blockchain, and digital payments will be the 12th sector of the S&P within the next decade.”

-       “I would like to make a note, of all the 130+ entities that went to zero, into bankruptcy, within the FTX portfolio – the only entity that is not bankrupt is LedgerX.  Why?  Because LedgerX is 100% regulated by the CFTC.  Your reason for regulation is so that you don’t go bankrupt.”

-       “The collapse of FTX is nothing new. While this situation is painful for shareholders, employees, and account holders – in the long run, it does not change this industry’s promise.  Enron came and went and had no impact on the energy markets.  Bear Sterns and Lehman Brother’s demise had no impact on the long-term potential of American debt and equity markets.”

-       “Disruption is always uncomfortable at first, and entrenched businesses abhor new competition.  But we can’t let FTX’s collapse cause us to abandon the great promise and potential of crypto.”

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was): 

   Monday:  Tomorrow we get the CPI reading, and many are hopeful that it will show a meaningful drop in prices.  On Wednesday we get the FOMC decision, and the press conference with Powell himself.  Binary: (a) If they've tarted-up the CPI report to be around 7.1%, we could run into January higher.  (b) But if it's ugly, I believe Powell will stand firm and we'll roll over hard.  Factually, prices remain up over 7% YoY – where 7% really is closer to 15%.  So, this week either sets the stage for a massive run or a complete beat down.  Then, on Friday we get quad-witching with a ton of options expiring.  The median estimate among big banks is that the CPI comes in around 7.3%.  If that happens, this market will have a hissy fit.

Tuesday:  As for the CPI, they were looking for 7.3%, and it came in 7.1%.  So, instantly the futures surged for 900 points.  So, the market is celebrating 7% YoY inflation, staring another rate hike and a recession in the face.  If we ended the day where the futures are, that's 1,000 DOW points in two days.  What does Powell do with this tomorrow?  I think he comes out hawkish tomorrow and tries to put some brakes on things.

Wednesday:  Things were going swimmingly for the bulls right up into the released statement.  The DOW went from being up 240 to being red by 112 in a matter of moments.  Why?  Inside the statement things got ugly.  First, ongoing rate hikes will continue, and the terminal rate will go to as high as 5.1%.  In September, no FED members put the end rate over 5% - but now 17 of 19 of them say it will be above 5%, 7 want it over 5.4%, and one wants it at 5.6%.  The market puked on that news.  Unless Powell says something different than what I’m reading, our markets will not like it.  When you have the FOMC members saying that they should have done 75bps and the terminal rate is more like 5.4% - this is not what markets wanted to hear.

Thursday:  Yesterday, Chair Jerome Powell also pushed back on the idea that the central bank will cut rates next year.  Our markets are starting to react to the more aggressive FED posture this morning, while also preparing for two more big central banks actions as the Bank of England (BOE) and European Central bank (ECB) – both are expected to raise interest rates.  Something that may show hope is PLUG.  It's slightly green on a horrible day.  If things perk up, PLUG over $15.68 looks doable.

Friday:  As rates fell to historic lows, the mantra was: “Don’t fight the FED” – and the stock market rose.  Now, with the FED in a sharp rate hike cycle, it finally appears the market is beginning to listen.  [But as long as our Treasury Dept. is still printing money –‘Houston – we have a problem.’ ].  The S&P 500 finished Thursday at a one-month low, falling below its 100-day moving average for the first time since early November and below its 200-day.  The economy continues to melt and just this morning Goldman Sachs is laying off 4,000 people.  There are 3 ways that this can play out: 1) We simply continue lower, investors take the tax loss, and move on to 2023.  2) We enter a trading range, where we wobble sideways and end the year lower.  And 3) we sell off a bit more, and then create a monster ‘V-shaped’ bounce that runs us into EOY.  I like #2 = sideways and down.  I think they'd rather mark this year as a loss, take tax losses, and work on next year.  The S&P has actually plunged through its 50-day moving average (3863).  If they can't recover by the close, Monday could be pretty dark. 

AMA (Ask Me Anything…)

   The new FTX CEO John Ray testified at a congressional hearing that: “FTX was just old-fashioned embezzlement.  FTX's collapse appears to stem from absolute concentration of control in the hands of a small group of grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals who failed to implement virtually any of the systems or controls that are necessary for a company entrusted with other people's money or assets.  Some of the unacceptable management practices identified so far include:

-       the use of computer infrastructure that gave individuals and senior management access to systems that stored customer's assets without security controls to prevent them from redirecting those assets; 

-       storing certain private keys to access hundreds of millions of dollars in crypto assets without effectively security controls or encryption; 

-       the ability of Alameda to borrow funds held by FTX.com and utilized for its own trading or investments without any effective limits whatsoever; 

-       the commingling of assets; 

-       the lack of complete documentation for transactions involving nearly 500 separate investments made with FTX Group's funds and assets in the absence of audited or reliable financial statements; 

-       lack of personnel and financial risk management functions; 

-       and the absence of independent governance throughout the FTX Group.  

   The fundamental challenge we face is we're in many respects starting from near zero in terms of the corporate infrastructure and record keeping that one would expect in a multibillion-dollar corporation.”

   In a Nassau courtroom, SBF's lawyer told the judge that SBF will fight U.S. extradition.

Next Week:  Recession’s Around-the-Corner…

-       CPI & our FED… The CPI release caused a $160 mover higher in the SPX.  Then our FED triggered a $260 move lower to net a $100 move lower in the SPX for the week – well within the weekly Expected Move.  The losses were not as great as anticipated except in the Nasdaq – where we closed on top of the lower edge of the Expected Move with TSLA hitting 52-week lows.  

-       Are markets pricing in a recession?  As of yet, I do not think that markets are pricing in a recession, and ‘yes’ that means that they’re going lower.  We’re beginning to see bad data come out (like retail sales declining for November) – and the market reacting negatively (aka bad news = bad news).  

-       The trade in bonds is confusing…  If we think we’re coming into a recession, you would think that Bonds (/ZB) would rally and corresponding interest rates would fade. But we’re seeing the inversion between the 2-Year (4.25%) and the 10 and 30-Year (3.5%) become even greater.  Tip #1: So, the opportunity for rates to go higher (5%) could reside solely in 2-Year notes.  Often going into a recession, longer-duration bonds rally as their rates fade lower.  The key is to watch whether ‘bad news’ for the economy becomes ‘bad news’ for the markets.  If so, then markets are continuing to price in a recession and the ride lower is not over.

-       Volatility is not back… yet – because our markets have been here – done that.  However, SKEW (the relationship of out-of-the-money PUTS to CALLS) is coming back, and that tells us that hedging activity is dramatically increasing. 

-       High probability of returning to the Volatility Box…  between 3931 and 3600, and especially between 3800 and 3600.  If we sell off to 3800 on the S&Ps, we could immediately go to 3600. 

-       New Trades & Set-Ups: DOW, CAT, BA, XLF:

o   DOW is really strong on a YTD basis vs the S&Ps and the Russell.  To trade the DOW lower, I’m looking at CAT and BA to go lower.  Why?  Because I believe markets have not totally priced in a recession.

o   Tip #2: CAT is up 12% YTD, BOT downside PUT-Spread

§  BOT Feb: +$200 / -$190 PUT Spread

o   Tip #3: BA is only down 11% YTD, and has been as low as 50% lower.  I will retest lower as this market further prices in a recession:

§  BOT Jan +$182.50 / -$180 PUT Spread

o   Tip #4: XLF (Downside PUTS):

§  BOT Feb: +$32 / -$30 PUT Spread

§  BOT Feb: +37 PUT

-       SPX Expected Move (EM):

o   Last Week: we expected a $127 move, and we ended within the expected move – after touching both extremes of it during the week.

o   Next Week: we’re expecting an $88 move.  We moved over $87 on Thursday – so these estimates no longer reflect the investing reality of: Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride.

Tips:  

A Santa Rally is possible, but not probable.  Our markets are lower on the year.  The NASDAQ is down over 30%.  I think our market’s plan has changed from charging higher into 2023, to: the heck with it – let’s just dump a lot of our underwater crap and take the tax loss.  I’m seeing sideways and lower thru the end of the year.

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

-       PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1,803 & Silver @ $23.41 /oz.

-       AGG – BOT MORE bonds (AGG = $99.35 / in at $93)

-       BA (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$182.50 / -$180 PUT Spread

-       **Bitcoin (BTC = $16,700 / in at $4,310)

-       **Ethereum (ETH = $1,175 / in at $310)

-       CAT (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Feb: +$200 / -$190 PUT Spread

-       GME – DRS’d and HODL

-       GS (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$340 / -$330 PUT Spread

-       IBM (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$130 / -$120 PUT Spread

-       Innerscope (INND = $0.006 / in at $0.0052)

-       SBUX (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$85 / -$75 PUT Spread

-       XLF (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Feb: +$32 / -$30 PUT Spread

o   BOT Feb: +37 PUT

-       XLP (Downside PUTS):

o   BOT Jan: +$77.5 / -$75.5 PUT Spread

Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>. 

 

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.

 

If you'd like to view R.F.'s actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a StockTwits follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

 

If you'd like to see R.F. in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0   

Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk   

Investing = https://youtu.be/zIIlk6DlSOM

Marketing = https://youtu.be/p0wWGdOfYXI

Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk

Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

 

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

 

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

 

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

 

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

 

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

 

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

 

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>