RF's Financial News

Sunday, July 24, 2022

This Week in Barrons: July 24th, 2022

How do I like to communicate? In Person. That’s because it’s rare, and because face-2-face meetings are so genuine. Digital can be engaging, inspiring, and challenging – but there’s always something missing. Maybe it’s the handshake, fist-bump, or even the selfie – but there’s something rewarding, trusting, and honest about live. My favorite part of any live meeting is not the content or the decision-making – but rather the pre and post ‘off-the-record’ chats. Trust comes from listening to someone’s journey, and a huge part of my continued motivation.

“I just don’t want to play anymore…” said Magnus Carlsen – the #1 chess player in the world since 2011. He was asked: WHY he wouldn’t defend his world title. It’s simple really: Do what you love, and Love what you do.

What’s in a title? Is “To Kill a Mockingbird” a good title? Can you imagine trying to get that title approved by any risk/social compliance officer today? And yet, the title clearly worked. Starbucks has nothing to suggest its coffee roots, and Nike is easy to mispronounce – yet they both became household names. Your title is simply what you use when you referto some-thing or some-one. Your title is not you. 99% of the time – you will have to speak for yourself.

The Market:

High unemployment means… that most people still have jobs, and often – it’s a job that didn’t exist before they had it. Per SG: Jobs exist because people are productive. When someone produces more value than what they are paid – 2 others keep the difference. The customer gets part of the benefit, and the job’s producer gets the rest. Therefore, jobs are NOT niches to be filled, but rather opportunities for value to be created. Discover the value, and you found yourself a job.

Per Milton Friedman… “Inflation is made in Washington, because only Washington can create money. Inflation is not made by: consumers, producers, manufacturers or importers. Inflation is produced by too much government spending and too much government creation of money - NOTHING else.” Per AP: every time that the money supply grows aggressively, the inflation rate ticks higher. Growing the money supply is a necessary ingredient to rising inflation. The manipulation of interest rates, money printing, and asset purchases by our FED – have created inflation and a gamified market that will become more volatile over time. It will be stopped by a recession.

CEO salaries in 2021… were 231 TIMES that of the average employee. That is NOT a recipe for success or sustainability. If you’re wondering why +40% of our workers will change jobs within the next 3 months – you need to look no further.

InfoBits:

- Last month, U.S. business activity contracted (47.5)… for the first time in 2 years. A slowdown in the service sector drove the decline.

- The Euro Zone didn’t fare much better… contracting to 49.4 in July – its lowest reading since February 2021.

- Homebuilder sentiment fell to a 2-year low… as building permits for single-family homes declined to their lowest level since June 2020.

- Smartphone shipments fell 9% in Q2… causing speculation about whether this was Apple’s way of pre-announcing weaker than expected results.

- Apple and Goldman Sachs… are cutting their workforce, and taking other measures to cut costs and prepare for a further economic downturn.

- SoftBank halts plans for chipmaker Arm’s London IPO.

- V.P. Kamala Harris and Governors Gavin Newsom and Jared Polis… are positioning themselves in case Biden chooses not to run in 2024.

- Hulu is Disney’s fastest-growing streaming service… out-pacing Disney+.

- TikTok has started laying off staff as part of a company-wide restructuring.

- Bank of America sees… funds in full-capitulation mode. Investor expectations of economic growth and corporate profits are at their lowest level on record.

- France is renationalizing Electricite de France... as it looks to take complete control of Europe’s biggest nuclear power operator in a deal worth $10B.

- Europe has surpassed Asia… as the top importer of US oil. Our production isn’t growing fast enough to meet the needs of both continents and our own.

- In China, tanks are protecting some banks… as people continue to protest and demand their money back.

- Amazon bought One Medical for $3.9B… further expanding its reach in the health care sector. They will take advantage of One Med’s know-how, streamlined strategy, and roster of 8K+ medical / business clients.

- Baidu unveiled a new autonomous EV vehicle without a steering wheel.

- Snapchat shares fell 40%... after its awful earnings report. Ad-related stocks took a major hit on fears that declining online ad revenues is industry-wide.

- Twitter’s quarterly revenue declined for the first time since 2020… and swung to a net loss as it struggled to be an advertising destination.

- For Mark Cuban, “Shark Tank” has been good for business… but he has yet to profit from his investments on the show.

Crypto-Bytes:

- Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings… but Elon said that it was about company liquidity more than the asset.

- Congress may rebuff U.S. regulators… who wanted stablecoins to be the exclusive territory of banks.

- Dubai unveiled a metaverse strategy… aiming to attract over 1,000 blockchain and metaverse firms as well as supporting more than 40,000 virtual jobs by 2030.

- Microsoft made it very clear… there will be no NFTs in Minecraft. The NFT model "can create models of scarcity and exclusion that conflict with our guidelines and the spirit of Minecraft."

- JPM and Citi said crypto demand among retail investors is improving… as the intense phase of deleveraging is over. Improved investor sentiment and increased demand before the Ethereum Merge have sparked a market recovery.

- Blockchain.com is cutting 25% of its workforce.

- South Korea postponed plans to tax crypto earnings until 2025.

- 3AC’s founders Kyle Davies and Su Zhu said… a series of bad trades were to blame for their fund’s catastrophic failure and loss of over $12.8B. The founders have been on the run, but reportedly plan to move the business to Dubai.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Tuesday: The euro jumped ~1% against the Dollar after a report that the ECB may consider raising interest rates by 50bps due to the worsening inflation backdrop. US retail gasoline prices fell below $4.50/gal. for the first time since mid-May. Housing starts fell 2% instead of rising 1.4% as estimated. Stock buybacks start up again on the 22nd, and somewhere north of $5B a day will be spent buying back big-company stocks. The NASDAQ has taken out its 50, and the DOW is right there – so we could run for a bit.

Wednesday: Yesterday was a powerful move; however, it lacked volume. The problem is that today starts a flood of earnings, and for the most part they're not going to be stellar. All 3 major indexes got over their respective 50-day moving averages, and held them into the close. The only thing standing in their way, is going to be reactions to earnings.

Thursday: The ECB just hiked interest rates by 50bps, so they can fight inflation. This is their first rate-hike in 11 years. That has bumped the Euro higher against the dollar.

Friday: Last night I saw several warnings across various sectors with SNAP posting a big miss, slow growth, and no guidance in the social media space. STX guided sharply lower in the chip related sector. SAM cut guidance in the beverage space. ISRG missed in the MedTech sector. SIVB missed earnings in the banking space, and COF missed in the credit card space. Markets have climbed a “wall of worry” all week, ignoring any warning signs of a broader consumer spending slowdown. History shows us that often the Friday and Monday ahead of a two-day FED meeting are down days. So, losing some altitude here wouldn't surprise me. We've just come through a couple good weeks for the market. Of course, everyone's preaching that the bottom is in and it's clear sailing. Maybe they're right, but I don't think so. I do think we're in a good bear market bounce, and it could surely go further.

AMA (Ask Me Anything…)

Is ETH off to the races again? Currently, 45% of ETH supply is in profit, but it reached lows of 27% (2020) and 23% (2018). There is a strong chance that the market will inflict similar pain levels during this bear cycle. Thus, it might pay to exercise caution at current levels. In the short term, ETH is likely to take out the liquidity levels at $1,700; however, for ETH to reach $4,000 is a stretch indeed. With the Proof of Stake (PoS) merge narrative taking precedence, Ethereum has entered a volatile phase. Until Sept. 19^th (the proposed merge date) and in the absence of bullish catalysts for Bitcoin, Ethereum will likely lead the price action. Watch the ETH/USD and ETH/BTC pairs to understand the short-term market moves.

How high could Bitcoin surge? I think the BTC could make a quick run toward $24,000 and possibly $25,250. Those targets are only possible if Bitcoin breaks above its 200-week = $22,700. If the upside fails, we will hit $19k, and if that falls then $16,500 becomes achievable.

What are start-up entrepreneurs like? Here are some recent poll results for start-up entrepreneurs and early-stage investors:

1. Sports watched (in descending order): #1 = Basketball, Soccer, Football, Tennis, and #5 = F1 racing.

2. TV shows watched: #1 = The Wire, Silicon Valley, Sopranos, Succession, and #5 = Breaking Bad.

3. Books read: #1 = Snow Crash, Dune, The Lean Startup, Ender’s Game, and #5 = Moneyball.

Next Week: More Volatility is Coming…

- Our FED is back for an additional 75bp increase in rates… also the ECB raised their rates by 50bps. This should put us right back into the volatility box – reflected by the SPX breaking down through the 3931 level.

- Sector Recap:

o Next week we have our FED raising rates, mega-cap tech earnings, economic data releases (GDP, Consumer Confidence, etc.), an on-going interest rate inversion (2.97 vs 2.75 = recession coming), and geo-political saber rattling = a market accident waiting to happen. Increased volatility is somewhat of a no-brainer.

o The SPX, XLF (financials), XLE (energy), and QQQ (tech) all settled on the upper edge of their expected moves – with ultra-high correlation.

- Respect the move in SNAP… and how it reflects on Facebook and Google. It will only take one Google (@ $1.4T) – to take the entire S&P 500 apart.

- Fear the moves in T and VZ… when AT&T talks about eating $2B worth of consumer, un-paid cell phone charges == the consumer is ‘tapped-out’.

- Big week for tech earnings & a packed calendar… with AAPL, META, MSFT, FOMC, durable goods, monthly GDP, jobless claims, and Consumer Confidence.

- Dollar weakens, Bonds strengthen, and Equities weaken… The ‘fear trade’ will leave the Dollar. Bonds will be strong as longer-term rates continue to fall (inverted yield curve) – causing lower equities – driving volatility (VIX) higher.

- Metals could make a comeback… TIP #1: Due to the price action in the Dollar / $1,700 Gold – Buy the Sept. out-of-the-money (OTM) Call Spread.

- Watch for a VIX trade as low VVIX won’t last… TIP #2: If you’re going to buy volatility – now is the time. Buy the Sept. OTM $30 / $35 Call Spread.

- SPX Expected Move (EM)

o Last Week EM = $88

o Next Week EM = $97 … we continue to have $100 moves in a day - look at this as a sign that volatility is moving higher.

Tips:

SNAP and Verizon announced earnings that missed on every single metric and made me fearful of a contracting consumer. That hit other social media outlets, telecom, and advertising companies in sympathy. We’re racing towards a FED rate hike, in a slow economy, with lousy earnings, and worsening economic reports. Bank earnings were ‘meh’ at best. Add in some historical glitch days approaching our FED release, and you have a recipe for increased volatility. Play things cautiously - with controlled risk.

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

- CASH == Nexo @ 8% on USDC, but wait for their acquisition dust to clear.

- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES == Gold @ $1,725 / oz. & Silver @ $18.66 / oz.

- AllBirds (BIRD = $5.11 / in at $4.82)

o Sold Aug $5 CC’s, and

o Sell Sept. $7.50’s when BIRD touches $6

- **BitFarm (BITF = $1.34 / in at $4.12)

o Selling more CCs for income,

- **Bitcoin (BTC = $22,700 / in at $4,310)

- **Ethereum (ETH = $1,600 / in at $310)

- GME – DRS’d and HODL

- **Grayscale Ethereum (ETHE = $11.09 / in @ $13.44)

- **Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC = $14.48 / in @ $9.41)

- Innerscope (INND = $0.0104 / in at $0.0052)

- SPY: Bot Aug 29: $385 / $375 PUT Spread for $2

- XHB: Bot Aug 19: $60 / $58 PUT Spread for $0.82

** Denotes a crypto-relationship

Trade of the Week: TIP #3 = INND is not a $10 stock. It’s a 3-cent stock that went sub penny. If the FDA rules within 30-days, that non-medical hearing aids can be sold over the counter – the buzz could take INND to $0.10. It has sales deals with major corporations and could move in short order (this week doubled = $0.0046 to $0.01)

Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

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Sunday, July 17, 2022

This Week in Barrons: July 17th, 2022

Was this TWTR thing… simply a cover-up to sell a boatload of expiring TSLA options? Was it an impulsive, bold, and totally egotistical in-your-face power play? Per TS: What are the consequences should Elon be allowed to walk? What would be the new meaning of ‘definitive deal’? Should deals be subject to stock-price movement: up = the deal is on, down = it’s off? This could be a dangerous contractual precedent. If the ‘Bot’ defense holds, what would prevent any company, in any industry, from making the same fraud claim – on virtually any written contract? My best guess is that the deal gets done at a reduced price. FYI, the options market was spot-on – as they priced this deal risk to perfection. Brains over Bots == “You do the math.”

“Knock Knock…” Per SG: the purpose of most communication is NOT to completely explain yourself and allow for a constructive, give-and-take dialogue. Too often, communication is designed to relieve tension, make a case, and close the door on discussion. The real purpose of communication should be to open-the-door for interaction, learning, and action. “Who’s there?” is a fine response. Communication is a process, not an event.

“Free Coffee … Next Exit…” is the most effective billboard I’ve seen. It’s (a) relevant to the viewer, (b) easy to see and understand, and (c) contains a call to action. Billboards are like social posts in that they work best when: (a) they’re about the viewer as much as they are about you, (b) can be seen and understood from a distance, and (c) made to sound like you.

The Market:

- Inflation… the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) showed a YoY increase of 9.1% in June, up from May’s 8.6% pace – to a fresh 40-year high. That means our FED will continue to raise rates aggressively. Per SF, real, average hourly earnings across all employees DECLINED 1% in June. So, prices are up and our real wages are down … gotcha!

- Lies, Lies, everywhere the Lies… Per HT: Maybe someday our FED will actually tell us the truth and DO what they say they’re going to do – like QT (Quantitative Tightening). If you look at our FED’s balance sheet – surprise, but it’s NOT decreasing. Our FED is simply following the bond market by raising rates – all the while continuing to do "Special Operations" == print money and buy stock. That 9.1% inflation number didn't send the market crashing, because behind the scenes our NY FED was using their secret printing-press to prop-up the market. What a surprise that on red days the volume is high, but on green (big bounce) days – the volume is anemic and requires less money printing to manufacture a bounce. Then they rinse-n-repeatthe process – working our markets lower. FYI: Inflation comes down when gasoline gets under $3.50/gal.

- Next week the ECB will reveal… an unlimited bond-buying tool to help markets adjust to steeper and faster interest-rate increases. The Transmission Protection Mechanism, will carry light conditions for the governments that it’s helping. The liquidity that its purchases create will be reabsorbed in a process called sterilization == increased money-printing & more inflation.

InfoBits:

- Inflation… hit a 24-year high in South Korea, a 40-year high in the UK, and 73% (not a typo) in Turkey.

- Small business sentiment fell… to a 10-Year low as consumer inflation expectations hit a record high.

- Canoo soared 53%... after receiving a Walmart order to buy 4,500 EVs.

- 75% of workers’ salaries won’t keep up with inflation… and a bonus may not be enough to retain them. 33% of employers are considering midyear raises.

- In the U.S., $774,000 = ‘financially comfortable’… and it takes $4m to join the 1% Club. FYI: the median American net worth is $122,000.

- The U.S. Dollar is the ‘unofficial’ global reserve currency. Dollars are the preferred currency because U.S. interest rates are higher than the rest of the globe, and our Gov’t will never default on its debt.

- Euro weakness is being driven by… the EU’s weakening economies due to soaring energy and food prices.

- 15% of all home sale contracts… were withdrawn in June, as homebuyers backed out of deals at the highest rate since early 2020.

- Between a rock and a Musk-place: Retail investors have turned bearish on TWTR as they dump shares, exercise put options, and make short bets – as the $44B deal is headed for a protracted court fight.

- Rivian Automotive… is planning hundreds of layoffs to trim its workforce.

- India will surpass China in population next year.

- In 2020 and 2021, the global population grew… by under 1% a year for the first time since 1950, with Europe’s population actually falling.

- The 124,000 leaked Uber files (going back 5 years)… show them breaking local laws and lobbying (bribing) world leaders including President Biden.

- The FDA received its first OTC application to sell… a non-prescription “mini” birth-control pill.

- Twitter’s lawyers wrote: “Musk refuses to honor his obligations because the deal he signed no longer serves his personal interests. Musk apparently believes that he … is free to change his mind, trash the company, disrupt its operations, destroy stockholder value, and walk away.”

- Apple and Jony Ive (its former design leader)… are calling it quits.

- Panasonic is building a new battery factory in Kansas.

- Microsoft is cutting… 2,000 jobs.

- LoanDepot (a direct-to-consumer lender) is cutting… 4,800 jobs.

- 25% of the U.S. plans on buying EVs… the next time around.

- Since 40% of S&P earnings come from abroad… a strong dollar could price U.S. products right out of the market. Analysts expect the euro to lose another 10% of its value before stabilizing.

- Renting the average Manhattan apartment just reached… $5,000 / mo.

- GM will build a network of EV fast chargers… about 50 miles apart along U.S. highways. 2,000 will be installed in 2023. They will be owned by Pilot Co.

- Citi was the only bank that topped revenue expectations this week… as its operations benefited from rising interest rates and strong trading results.

- China’s Q2 GDP rate fell to 0.4%... adding to global recession fears.

- Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy… and we’re spending more and getting less. Sentiment remains low, and banks are ramping up for more bad loans. There’s just no good retail news here.

Crypto-Bytes:

- Per MH: “Builders keep building... Bear markets can be brutal, but at least they show us who’s really in it for the tech.”

- Ethereum’s merge… is now projected for the week of Sept. 19.

- Three Arrows’ liquidators are working… to get Singapore courts to recognize the British Virgin Islands’ liquidation order against it, in order to preserve the assets that have been transferred to Singapore.

- Binance, allowed Iranians to trade on their platform… despite US sanctions and an internal company ban. When industry titans like Binance make headlines for not playing by the rules, tougher regulations are likely not far behind.

- Voyager’s FDIC insured U.S. dollar deposits will be returned in full… but it remains unclear how customers will be reimbursed for their cryptocurrency investments.

- GameStop has launched its NFT marketplace… for public beta testing.

- 141,686 BTC … is the amount that Mt. Gox’s bankruptcy trustee is close to releasing – after the worst crypto hack in history. The disbursement of these funds could put pressure on BTC prices if creditors choose to sell their coins.

- The Celsius Network has a $1.2B hole to fill in its balance sheet. Now, it’s owed $439m by private lending platform EquitiesFirst – who is repaying them at $5m per month.

- OpenSea the NFT marketplace… has laid off 20% of its employees.

- Dubai gave crypto firm OKX… a provisional virtual assets license.

- Bitcoin can be a hedge against inflation… but it also goes up with our FED’s QE injections. It’s just a matter of time before our FED turns the spigots back on, and BTC will shine again.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday: The NASDAQ lost its 50 day on January 4^th, and only peeked back above it for about 15 sessions in March. I suspect that we’re in for more downside, but bear markets generally do have bounces that get so strong everyone starts preaching about “new all-time highs.” TIP #1: I’m looking at AllBirds (BIRD). It closed Friday at $5.02 per share, with large $7.50 and $10.00 Call option buying. The average price target of 17 analysts is $11 bucks a share. It held above $4.81, which is its 50-day, so I bought in. I’ll use $4.81 as a closing stop. If it can rally to $6, the September $7.50 calls might be pretty attractive to sell – around 80 cents.

Tuesday: The euro sank to parity with the dollar early today and stock markets fell over the prospect of further central bank tightening and worries about our global economic health. A COVID resurgence in China added to concerns about a global economic slowdown, with the International Energy Agency warning the worst of the energy crisis may be ahead. Yesterday was ugly and there was really no safe haven. Today, TJX looks interesting. It's in a battle to get back up and over its 50-day. I'll nibble on it if it gets up and over this morning’s high of $59.49.

Wednesday: The CPI is out – and it’s bad: CPI MoM 1.3%, CPI YoY 9.1%, CPI Core MoM 0.7%, and CPI Core YoY 5.9%. That’s as ugly as it gets! I don't trust this market. I think it was saved by our FED this am. They just wanted to stabilize things, and that’s not a great reason to buy something.

Thursday: Investors are increasing their bets that our FED will raise interest rates by 100 basis points when it meets later this month. In crypto, lender Celsius Network filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after a cash crunch. We've already heard from JPM and MS – both of which missed their earnings and JPM has halted buybacks. The PPI (Producer Price Index) also rose 1.1% MoM, and 11% YoY. Can you imagine what the real numbers are? Are we going to see the FED show up and buy it all?

Friday: China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace since the initial 2020 Wuhan outbreak. Today feels like a bear bounce and nothing more. We're so overdue for a face ripping bear bounce. Sure 600-point up-days look good, but if you only get one of them, what's the point? I want the kind of bounce that lasts and people begin to think 'wow, it's really over, time to load up!’ – because THAT will be the peak and we'll hit new lows shortly thereafter. There's absolutely NOTHING to do in here.

AMA (Ask Me Anything…)

What do VC’s advise? (Per HL)

1. Do the work, make the calls, read all of the legal docs … yourself!

2. Trust ONLY your own analysis.

3. What’s different NOW – that will allow an investment to be successful?

4. Describe your solution so a 4^th Grader could understand it.

5. Don’t work with people and/or companies you don’t like.

6. You’re in this for the upside – not to minimize risk.

7. Make your decision – live with it for two days – THEN make the real decision.

Are wages keeping up with inflation? Not even close. Per AP: Last year the CPI was 5.4% and everyone was freaking out about high inflation, but our FED assured us that the inflation was ‘transitory’. So, our FED kept interest rates at 0%, and continued QE well into 2022. A ridiculously loose monetary policy + supply chain issues + demand shocks = have led to 9.1% YoY inflation. But that 9.1% inflation is on TOP of the 5.4% inflation. Welcome: Mr. Compounding! If you fell asleep in January 2020 and woke up today, you would NOT recognize any part of our economy – because you’re getting a lot less stuff – for at least 15% more money. Consumer prices exploded, home prices grew to the sky, and wages don’t even stand a CHANCE of keeping pace. If you’re NOT a 1%’er, then there is no soft-landing for this economy.

A RECESSION is right around the corner. Nobody knows how deep it will be, or how long it will last. The bond market expects higher inflation over the next 2 years than it does over the next 10 years – so a recession is not an IF but rather a WHEN. Additionally, the CME’s FedWatch Tool shows that the market has fully priced in a 75bps hike at our FED’s July meeting, and is now pricing the odds of a 100bp hike at 78%. Canada’s central bank hiked 100bps last week, so a move like that in the U.S. would not be unprecedented. As long as inflation readings stay high expect our FED to continue raising rates aggressively right into a recession.

Next Week: Economic Uncertainty is Mounting…

- What happened… Inflation happened. Families are now paying $500/mo. (+$6,000/yr.) more this year – for the same food and energy that they received last year. Consumer and producer inflation are both up over 17% in a year.

- The SPX is stuck in a trading range… between 3725 and 3931 – just accumulating open interest. We’ve been inside this range for over 30 days, and the longer you’re range-bound – the more dangerous a market becomes.

- The FOMC is on July 27^th… and its members are going into their 10-day quiet period. They will raise rates 75bps – and utter the words data dependent a lot. Those two words are becoming sketchy as our FED continues to mis-read the tea leaves.

- Numbers are mixed, depending upon where you look. For example, retail sales came in higher than expected last week, but consumer credit card debt also exploded. And, with our FED about to increase rates – that will be a huge blow to the consumer +2 months down the road.

o JPM & MS = missed and were bearish for the future. Only Citi made their numbers.

o Tip #2: Market correlation is virtually 100%. That means that the entire market is moving as one. Stock picking is NOT the driver as much as market direction is.

o Medium Tech is on deck next week… in a market that’s heavily correlated.

- Tip #3: We have a hideously inverted yield curve… which is causing us to price in a recession – with rampant inflation.

- Tip #4: A Dollar / Commodity crisis is coming soon. For the most part, the world prices energy in U.S. Dollars. With the Dollar continuing to increase, it’s making energy almost prohibitively expensive globally.

- SPX Expected Move (EM):

o Last Week = $95 (EM) … We are on a ‘bounce’ and look for the SPX = 3931 level to act as both support and resistance – depending upon where our FED would like us to move.

o Next Week = $88 (EM) … Given we moved $72 just on Friday – do NOT trust the short-term Expected Moves in the SPX. Be careful, currently actual price movement is out-pacing implied volatility.

Tips:

Next week’s ECB “Unlimited Bond Buying” is something we've never seen. Beware, almost 100% of all bear markets, put in at least one (if not two) "rip your face off” rallies that go on for so long and so far – that everyone gets convinced that it's a new bull market and piles back in. Then of course, Mr. Bear bites again and down we go, lower than before. If they get the NASDAQ back to, and then OVER its 50-day moving average, I could see the DOW and S&P rallying to get back to their respective 50-days as well. But like last week, if Friday proves to be a one-day wonder and we don't see mega-cap tech try and get there – we will just stair-step lower again.

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

- CASH == Nexo = 8% yield on USDC

- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES == Gold @ $1,706 / oz. & Silver @ $18.66 / oz.

- AllBirds (BIRD = $5.02 / in at $4.82)

o Waiting to sell $7.50’s for income

- **BitFarm (BITF = $1.17 / in at $4.12)

o Selling more CCs for income,

- **Bitcoin (BTC = $20,500 / in at $4,310)

- **Ethereum (ETH = $1,200 / in at $310)

- GME – DRS’d and HODL

- **Grayscale Ethereum (ETHE = $9.35 / in @ $13.44)

- **Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC = $13.70 / in @ $9.41)

- Innerscope (INND = $0.006 / in at $0.0052)

- XHB – short

o Bot August 19 / $60 - $58 PUT Spread for $0.82