This Week in Barrons: 2.2.2025

 

 Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-222025-r-f-culbertson-freic 

The S&Ps closed up +2.7% in January, and companies are sounding more optimistic in earnings calls.  Investor confidence is down but economic confidence is up – which sets the scene for a market rotation (mega-cap to small-cap).  Per Callum Thomas: Investor sentiment has slipped as market volatility, policy uncertainty, and valuations have all increased.  This is a characteristic of stocks becoming more range-bound and an upcoming market rotation.  Heads-Up, because that is a different macro-market than what we’ve been used to over the past couple of years.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1262025-r-f-culbertson-kf4dc

This year will be the moment-of-truth for the AI market.  On one hand you have the “AI Manhattan Project” that will cost $500B just to maintain superiority.  And on the other hand, you have the just-released DeepSeek (Chinese) model which demonstrates the success of nerds + open-source models = superior efficiency at a tiny fraction of the cost and speed == Cheaper, Better, Faster.  Per Callum Thomas: “The big questions remain around commercialization and profitability.  We will begin a period of re-thinking on capex, earnings prospects, and a probable shakeout of our excesses.”  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 1.19.2025

 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1192025-r-f-culbertson-li9oc

(1) Markets rebounded off oversold conditions, but sentiment has also shifted from bullish to neutral/bearish.  (2) Retail flows have moved from doubt to hype – further fueling the ‘degenerative economy’ trade.  However, earnings per share for Defensive stocks has reached a decade+ low.  (3) Finally, Tech will not go quietly into this good night, and an interesting play is to: Replace Bonds (in the 60/40 portfolio) with Bitcoin + Defensives.  

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 1.12.2025

 

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Just as retail traders are going all-in on stocks, the indexes are becoming more concentrated and uncertainty surrounding our new fiscal / monetary policies is growing. We desperately need Mag-7 earnings to out-perform.   But a bit of stock market indigestion is to be expected at this stage of the election cycle. Q1 volatility is an understatement with: expensive valuations, stretched investor / consumer sentiment, and policy uncertainty. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1122025-r-f-culbertson-l9txc 

This Week in Barrons: 1.5.2025

 

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Per Callum Thomas, 2024 was a year that featured all the hallmarks of a raging bull market. Heading into 2025, expectations are running hot, and the hurdles for a third calendar year in a row of 20%+ gains are high. It’s possible that the bull market keeps moving higher-for-longer, but probabilities do not favor that outcome. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-152025-r-f-culbertson-jrsic 

This Week in Barrons: 12.29.2024

 

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Late last week, the Santa Claus rally got body-slammed.  Someone woke the Bear and violently sold the NAS into the ‘Bidless Zone’. Bonds weren’t catching a bid, and when money chooses US Dollars over Treasuries – you know something’s gone awry. The issue I’m seeing now is complete correlation. When everything’s moving in the same direction at the same time == “Danger, Will Robinson – Danger!” Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-12292024-r-f-culbertson-fku2c 

This Week in Barrons: 12.15.2024

 

Read this week's blog post:  https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-12152024-r-f-culbertson-xtyxc 

Markets are Breaking Bad. 

• It’s scary to see traders selling their losers at 52-week lows and piling into the Mag-7 winners. 
• Friday (12.20) could be the largest ($5T) options expiration in history. 
• Re-inflation is igniting commodities vs stocks vs bonds discussions: commodities are winners in a resurging economy, and bonds are winners in a recession. 
• Bitcoin continues to gain adoption … slowly - then suddenly. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options