This Week in Barrons: 08.31.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08312025-r-f-culbertson-dvmzc 

 

Factually: (a) The S&P500 closed up +1.9% in August (+9.8% YTD). (b) Future FED rate cuts are likely to be bullish for the markets.  (c) We are due for a seasonal uptick in volatility.  And (d) The bullish broadening theme continues to play through.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: This week’s 3 Key Themes are: (1) Future rate cuts will be bullish for markets and for rotational broadening of the market itself.  (2) There is a real tendency for volatility to spike around Sep/Oct.  (3) There is an abundance of bullish breakouts across sectors and regions which increases the odds for bull-market longevity and the bullish broadening of markets themselves.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08312025-r-f-culbertson-dvmzc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.24.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08242025-r-f-culbertson-uui9c 

 

Factually: (a) There is bullish broadening, improved earnings breadth, and bullish rotations as markets trend higher. (b) There are plenty of seasonal risk flags and tech early warning indicators firing off as we head into September.  And (c) Credit spreads are at 25-year lows indicating confidence & complacency.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: This week’s 3 Key Themes are: (1) Markets are building bullish evidence via their technicals, rotation, and breadth.  (2) The big picture risk pressures are also increasing due to expensive valuations, AI hype, and all-in positioning.  And (3) The short-term seasonal risk flags are waving.  Reconcile these indicators via hedging, risk management strategies, and paying attention to what price is telling you.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08242025-r-f-culbertson-uui9c 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.17.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08172025-r-f-culbertson-9ca6c 

 

Factually: (a) Sentiment is slipping as we head into a seasonally ‘slippery’ part of the year. (b) Valuation indicators are reaching ‘stupidly’ extreme / expensive levels. (c) More people are ‘negotiating’ with the facts.  And (d) Emerging Market equities are cheap and breaking out.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: It’s just another day in the late stages of the market cycle. Aside from the speculation, there’s a bull market in the number of charts showing valuation extremes and pressure points.  More people are ‘negotiating’ against those facts using phrases like: “valuations don’t matter” and “it’s different this time”, but the facts are ironically what tend to give valuations a greater weight and meaning.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08172025-r-f-culbertson-9ca6c 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.10.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-8102025-r-f-culbertson-j9szc

Factually: (a) Companies are no longer concerned about a recession.  (b) Q2 earnings saw a large surge in big beats.  (c) Tech stock earnings are going vertical, non-tech stocks == horizontal earnings.  (d) Tech sector profit margins are at a cyclical and secular high.  And (e) If Tech used to be expensive, it’s now insanely priced.  Per Callum Thomas: The market continues in its lane - unbothered.  The tendency for higher volatility around Aug-Sept-Oct, and the constant geo-political surprises warns against complacency.  Maybe it’s just as simple as good earnings justifies expensive valuations.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-8102025-r-f-culbertson-j9szc

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This Week in Barrons: 8.3.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-832025-r-f-culbertson-qopsc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps closed up +2.2% for July (+7.8% YTD), and subsequently slipped -1.6% the first day of August.  (b) Volatility and Credit Spreads are seeing their normal seasonal upturn.  (c) Investors are skewing portfolios heavier and heavier into tech stocks.  And (d) US electricity demand has broken out to a new all-time high.  Overall, Per Callum Thomas: Investors have shifted their focus from ‘rebound management’ to ‘full-risk-on’ – as the recovery from the April low fizzles, and seasonal headwinds begin to weigh.  Short-term technicals are tenuous, pressure points are building, but medium-to-long-term trend indicators remain healthy.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-832025-r-f-culbertson-qopsc 

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This Week in Barrons: 7.27.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7272025-r-f-culbertson-tvcwc

Factually: (a) Volatility (at a 5-month low) will rise from August to November. (b) Stocks, Bitcoin, and Gold are all riding waves of liquidity. (c) The Equal-Weighted S&P500 made a new ATH last week. And (d) Penny stock ‘gambling’ has doubled in recent years.  Overall, the rally continues to run its course. Per Callum Thomas: Momentum is strong, sentiment is building, valuations are becoming expensive again, and we could be seeing signs of a bullish rotation and broadening out.  But data points to things being a little too quiet lately – just as we head into a traditionally volatile time of year.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7272025-r-f-culbertson-tvcwc

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This Week in Barrons: 07.20.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7202025-r-f-culbertson-bqmqc 

Factually: (a) Semiconductors (along with their market cap weight) made further ATHs. (b) History tells us that the semis are normal & healthy, but need to be monitored. (c) Market cap Put/Call ratios and stretched valuations = stocks that are late in the cycle. And (d) Market booms start with good reason, and end when things get unreasonable. Overall, it’s a good opportunity to take a minute and look at the markets – as they relate to the risk and cycles outlook. Learning from history means learning to identify risks, opportunities, and what may come next. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7202025-r-f-culbertson-bqmqc 

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This Week in Barrons: 06.13.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06132025-r-f-culbertson-dwqic 

Factually: (a) We appear to be going through a “late-cycle reset”. (b) Institutional sentiment is healing, and risk appetite is resurging. (c) Retail investors are running very high equity allocations. (d) Our FED cutting rates may NOT be a good thing. (e) The IPO market is opening-up again. Overall per Callum Thomas: There is mounting evidence for the ‘Late-Cycle Reset’ hypothesis. Just like the late-90’s we’re seeing: (a) A frothy market with increasing pressures, (b) That was given ‘new life’ via a healthy correction (shaking out sentiment but doing little fundamental or enduring damage), and (c) Then will melt-up into a later and larger blow-off top. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06132025-r-f-culbertson-dwqic 

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This Week in Barrons: 7.6.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7062025-r-f-culbertson-zqwoc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps have broken out to all-time highs, and put in a “Golden Cross” uptrend signal.  (b) Seasonality is still bullish, and will turn bearish later in the year.  (c) Sentiment is bullish, but policy risk is also rising.  (d) And we’re back to investors running record high allocations to tech funds.  Per Callum Thomas: This late-cycle reset is running its course via the “re-frothification” of markets.  The bullish momentum we’re seeing could have room to run, but we have renewed QE and Trade-War-Truce expirations starting next week.  I’d sell: tech, U.S. Credit, and the US dollar.  I’d buy: commodities, bitcoin, and precious metal miners.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7062025-r-f-culbertson-zqwoc 

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This Week in Barrons: 06.29.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06292025-r-f-culbertson-jrnyc

Factually: (a) The price action during the first half of 2025 is characteristic of a “late-cycle reset”. (b) US Semiconductors’ market cap weight reached an all-time-high.  (c) The biggest stocks are much bigger than usual, and vice versa.  (d) Risk pressures continue to increase – generating bullish signals.  Per Callum Thomas: The key theme of this week is a bit of marketplace examination in terms of the pressure points and risks – but if we’re witnessing a “late-cycle reset” we could witness a “What-If” bullish rally.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06292025-r-f-culbertson-jrnyc

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This Week in Barrons: 6.22.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6222025-r-f-culbertson-zokhc 

Factually: (a) The market is facing a “Wall of Worry” as noise levels are increasing.  (b) Currency flows coupled with negative seasonality are showing a transitional phase in the market.  (c) Again, it’s a perfect storm for increased Geopolitical Risk + Tariffs + the Big, Beautiful Bill to come back into focus.  Per Callum Thomas: the major theme for the short-term is one of worry, pessimism, and we hit a sour-spot.  The long-term optimist in me will say that walls of worry are made to be hurdled, but we cannot ignore the legitimate concerns.Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6222025-r-f-culbertson-zokhc 

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This Week in Barrons: 6.15.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6152025-r-f-culbertson-fv6ac 

Factually: (a) Stocks are stumbling on geopolitics (S&P back below 6000).  (b) Sentiment remains bearish and defensive.  (c) Investor allocations to stocks are historically elevated.  And (d) energy stocks are unloved, undervalued, and unprepared for oil price upside.  TIMING is key.  Per Collum Thomas: Events-n-Excuses have a habit of showing up at times when markets needed a catalyst to justify a move.  When it comes to geopolitics, the stage of the market cycle and the width of its pressure point is more important than the nature of the event.  [FYI: Watch Silver hitting $120/oz. and Gold @ $5,500/oz. over the next 2 years.]. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6152025-r-f-culbertson-fv6ac 

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This Week in Barrons: 6.08.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6082025-r-f-culbertson-khrkc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps closed back above 6,000 on Friday.  (b) The third year of a bull market (this year) will be messy.  (c) Small caps remain unloved and undervalued.  It’s become common-place in the 2020’s to follow a rapid collapse with even a faster recovery.  Per Callum Thomas: Third-year bull markets have a range-bound / volatility behavior that produces interesting opportunities – hiding-out in plain sight.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6082025-r-f-culbertson-khrkc 

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This Week in Barrons: 6.01.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6012025-r-f-culbertson-msebc

Just the Facts:  

• - The S&Ps closed up +6.2% in May and +0.5% YTD.  This ranked the U.S. lower than the rest of the world on the YTD returns scale for the first time.
• - Sentiment rebounded in May, and remains historically high.
• - Big Tech is seeing small job growth and virtually zero M&A activity.
• - As life expectancy increases, people are Working-for-Longer.

Overall, per Callum Thomas: This pattern has the Bull-Case being a late-90’s, late-cycle reset, and the Bear-Case being the bull-trap that occurred prior to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6012025-r-f-culbertson-msebc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options