This Week in Barrons: 6.08.2025

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6082025-r-f-culbertson-khrkc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps closed back above 6,000 on Friday.  (b) The third year of a bull market (this year) will be messy.  (c) Small caps remain unloved and undervalued.  It’s become common-place in the 2020’s to follow a rapid collapse with even a faster recovery.  Per Callum Thomas: Third-year bull markets have a range-bound / volatility behavior that produces interesting opportunities – hiding-out in plain sight.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6082025-r-f-culbertson-khrkc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

This Week in Barrons: 6.01.2025

 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6012025-r-f-culbertson-msebc

Just the Facts:  

• - The S&Ps closed up +6.2% in May and +0.5% YTD.  This ranked the U.S. lower than the rest of the world on the YTD returns scale for the first time.
• - Sentiment rebounded in May, and remains historically high.
• - Big Tech is seeing small job growth and virtually zero M&A activity.
• - As life expectancy increases, people are Working-for-Longer.

Overall, per Callum Thomas: This pattern has the Bull-Case being a late-90’s, late-cycle reset, and the Bear-Case being the bull-trap that occurred prior to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6012025-r-f-culbertson-msebc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: May 25, 2025

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5252025-r-f-culbertson-uacbc

It seems like the sell-off that everyone was waiting for has finally arrived. The market (technically) was ripe and primed for a pullback, and simply awaiting some news or narratives as a reason/excuse. Per Callum Thomas: With the ebb and flow of government policy and macro narratives, there’s a new acronym in town: “RTFL” (Range Trading For Longer). With re-shoring talk rising, and tech capex dominating - where are the raw materials?  Where will we find all the energy to run the new economy?  Where are the materials to build the structures, the products, the devices, and wire it all together?  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5252025-r-f-culbertson-uacbc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

This Week in Barrons: 5.11.2025

 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5112025-r-f-culbertson-3oauc

This rally has stalled at resistance, and seasonality is signaling that downside risk is imminent. However, the risk-off signal is fragile, and could switch quickly from bear-to-bull at any time. The word ‘Recession’ is on every earnings call, and could become a self-reinforcing prophecy. Overall, a bull-bear stalemate has set in. Per Callum Thomas: This market is sitting on a window of optimism and anxiety, our floor and ceiling have been set, and there’s an explosive third option lying in wait. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5112025-r-f-culbertson-3oauc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 5.4.2025

 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

With the negative Q1 GDP print of last week and the soft CPI reports … the prospect of a disinflationary recession is being raised. Per Callum Thomas: One school of thought is that tariffs will drive inflation higher – while the other school thinks that tariffs will drive costs higher, squeeze profit margins and discretionary incomes, and result in being a demand killer.   In any case, the possibility of a disinflationary recession would certainly be bond bullish, and it just so happens that we’re getting into the part of the year which has historically been good for bonds (from May through to October).  So just as the seasons are turning bad for stocks (“Sell in May”), it may finally be the season for bonds.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.25.2025

 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Investor sentiment is bearishly one-sided … but the pros know that this is an eye-of-the-storm type of moment.  The lack of new bad news, some less bad news, and the rebound in stocks is giving everyone a sense of calm and relief.  However, there is a gnawing sense that whether you call it a bull trap, a bear market rally, or an eye-of-the-storm moment – there is another shoe to drop.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.20.2025

 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

When you ‘Follow the Money’ … it shows us that foreign investors are voting with their feet.  Per Callum Thomas, they’re concerned about the U.S. Dollar, high valuations, policy uncertainty, and recession risks.  They’re rotating out of U.S. stocks and back into their home markets or gold.  It doesn’t make sense for U.S. assets to trade at such a premium when Trump’s Tariff risk is this high, and our recession risk is over 50%.  [FYI: When you’re priced-for-perfection and then find yourself in an increasingly imperfect world – it’s time to pause and re-think.]  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options