RF's Financial News

Sunday, November 3, 2024

This Week in Barrons: 11.3.2024

This Week in Barrons: November 3, 2024:

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“One of the greatest features of America … is that we have political contests. Once the decision is made, we must unite behind the person who is elected. I want Senator Kennedy and all of you to know, that he will have my wholehearted support and yours as well.” … Richard Nixon

Is everyday Halloween to somebody? There’s a big difference between carrying a stethoscope and being a doctor, and between wearing a clown suit and being a clown. Entrepreneurs with business cards, slick websites, and cool presentations continue to be confused – because that’s NOT the hard part. Per Seth G: If costumes put you in the right frame of mind, that’s great. But the hard part IS (and always was) turning vision into reality. That is the important part. If you’re avoiding the important parts – then you’re in trouble from the start.

“We won’t be fooled again…” but we will be. We continue to be fooled by: vaporware, false deadlines, fake budgets, unrealistic promises, con jobs, FOMO, and even ‘flat out’ lies. False hope delivers a benefit for the moment, while the reality we have to live with – doesn’t arrive for weeks or months. To eliminate getting fooled the next time, learn why you were fooled the last time.

Sayeth Macbeth (Per Priya N.) …

Do not let the negative voices of others – amplify your own.
Focus on the opportunities – not the distracting threats.
Every decision comes with: consequences and irreversibility.

[Per Jeff B: “Once you walk through a door and don’t like what you see, you can’t go back and un-see it.”]

The Market:

Friday’s October JOBS Report was a disaster … The headline number said that our economy added 12,000 jobs last month. The low number was blamed on 2 hurricanes and the Boeing strike. What they failed to say was that 368,000 ‘fake’ jobs were added by our government’s Birth/Death model. So factually, our economy actually LOST -356,000 jobs last month.

The Car Loan crisis is here … ~33% of Americans who financed their cars, now owe more on their loans (+$6,500 avg.) than what their vehicle is worth.

A new D.O.T. rule now guarantees ALL airline passengers refunds … when an airline fails to get you to your intended destination. “When an airline knows that all of the passengers on a canceled flight will get their money back, it gives them a different set of reasons to put in the investment, and the realistic scheduling that makes cancellations less likely to happen in the first place.”

The S&P500 dropped -1% in the month in October … breaking a 5-month streak of gains, yet still placing it up ~20% YTD. The cyclical bull market that began in October 2022 looks very much alive and well.

[ Gain access to 1440 here… ]

InfoBits:

The Magnificent 7 (including Nvidia and Tesla) … are expected to report an average earnings growth of 18% - which compares to less than 1% growth for the rest of the S&P 500.

Billionaires have donated ~$700m to political campaigns… which is ~20% of the total funds raised in the U.S. election.

Google will unveil its “Jarvis” AI agent in December … a tool capable of controlling web browsers to complete tasks like shopping, scheduling, and more.

Boeing’s voting on a new contract on Monday … fingers crossed.

Meta is developing its own AI-powered search engine… to power real-time information inside of its Meta AI conversations.

Stock market returns under both Biden and Trump… have been almost identical with the S&Ps returning ~14% per year.

BYD surpassed Tesla in total EVs sold for the first time ever … BYD (a Chinese company) is focused on consumer-model EVs priced as low as ~$9,800. Tesla’s cheapest model is $42,500 and climbing.

Luckin Coffee (China’s Starbucks) plans its U.S. launch next year … and is aiming to undercut its rivals by selling drinks for $2.

OpenAI and ChatGPT.com may crack Google’s search monopoly… before government regulators have the chance. ChatGPT.com announced a new search feature (for paid ChatGPT users) that integrates real-time web results inside of its chatbot area. [FYI – It’s amazing, and it has NO ads.]

Restaurants are now the #1 reason to go to the mall… overtaking shopping and Santa.

Ford has paused production of its F-150 Lightning EV truck… amid slowing demand. [FYI – I’m not surprised for the prices Ford is asking for its EVs.]

The new weight-loss drugs significantly reduce arthritis… and their pain reduction is on par with opioid treatments.

Apple is investing $1.1B into GlobalStar… in a bid to expand its satellite services for the iPhone.

Crypto-Bytes:

Bitcoin briefly hit $73,096 last week… just shy of its all-time high of $73,750 – recorded March, 2024.

Behold the Golden Cross … a bullish sign that occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day. It often signals a bullish trend shift, and acts as a catalyst for sideliners to jump back in.

Coinbase and Visa are joining forces… to let you fund your crypto account instantly with your Visa debit card. No more waiting for deposits to clear.

Our Treasury now sees Stablecoins as a new Liquidity Force …
o There are $120B in short-term Treasuries … now backing digital dollars. Our Treasury is eyeing stablecoin regulation that could treat them like money market funds.
o Tokenized Treasuries could settle transactions immediately … without any red tape. Our Treasury is considering how tokenization could upgrade its debt management practices.

Bitcoin Benchmarks:
o Jimmy Patronis, CFO for the state of Florida, advocated for bitcoin to be put on the state’s balance sheet.
o The Central Bank of Argentina opened an art exhibit featuring ASICs machines that were actively mining bitcoin. The first central bank to actively mine bitcoin.
o MSTR (MicroStrategy) announced their intention to raise $42B over the next 3 years to purchase more bitcoin.
o Blackrock’s bitcoin ETF just set a new record for single day inflows, and IBIT has seen the third largest inflows YTD of any ETF in history.

[ Visit StoneIsland - here… ]

https://www.stoneisland.com/en-us/?utm

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday: Lithium miners are having a moment, as IONeer (IONR) won government approval for a new Nevada Lithium Mine. This is the first lithium project in the U.S. to win an approval to begin full scale production as a mine under the Biden administration. LITM and PLL are enjoying some attention. PLL making it over $13.15 – will pull me in.

Wednesday: The futures are looking higher, after impressive GOOGL earnings (due to strength in their cloud and in YouTube ad sales). The NAS marked its 11^th win in the last 13 trading days. Earnings tonight include: MSFT & META, and tomorrow is hi-lighted by AAPL & AMZN. The S&Ps continue to behave badly with 9 of the 11 sectors ending negative and decliners outpacing advancers by over 2:1. More economic data is on the horizon: Q3 GDP data, Q3 PCE inflation data, and Friday’s October Jobs Report. Gold is at an all-time-high, and market volatility continues to be elevated.

Friday: This morning looks like a standard dead-cat-bounce, and I'd be surprised if we get back all of what was lost yesterday. There is only today and Monday ahead of the election, and then the market (I believe) will got into a ‘pause mode’ for a few days. If we get a benign and clear election outcome – then all talk will turn to year-end rallies and existing bullish momentum likely carries it higher. So, I would advise playing it safe and keeping some cash-on-hand until at least Friday – when we have a cleaner view of the post-election direction.

Morgan’s Moments…

Silver vs Gold: With silver being one of the most manipulated commodities on earth, the paper contract to physical silver ratio has exploded to 408:1. Which means that each ounce of physical silver is now backed by 408 ounces of paper silver derivatives. With such an extreme paper-to-physical ratio, even the slightest shift in investor preferences toward physical silver could force a dramatic silver repricing. Demand for physical silver continues to surge, and customers continue to pay significant premiums for physical delivery. This suggests to me that confidence is eroding in paper silver derivatives.

Russia (for the first time) in its annual budget, plans to significantly bolster its silver holdings. The mention of silver represents the first time any central bank has explicitly included silver in its purchasing plans during the current bull PM market.

So, we have: (a) the most extended paper to silver ratio in history, (b) Sovereign nation(s) beginning to stock up on it, (c) the use of silver solar panels, and communication devices continuing to soar, and (d) all during a silver supply deficit. When these converge, we could see silver at $100 to $125 per ounce. If we hear of China stockpiling silver as a partner to their gold holdings, silver could gain $80 overnight. If you need a legitimate place to buy some physical silver, I've been doing business with cornerstonebullion.com since 2009. They’re just good people.

Next Week: Bonds are In Control…

BONDS (the $800B gorilla) are driving this marketplace by flexing their interest rate muscles. How did our FED cut interest rates, and all rates have done is move higher? Could we be witnessing a bond, forced-selling avalanche? What if the Bond Vigilantes do not like the election results?

Do we have an interest rate problem? Yes, for the past 2 months, our bonds have undergone some dramatic sell-side activity. As a consequence, interest rates (since our FED rate CUT) have moved higher from 3.6% to 4.4%. In fact, except for 2 small time periods – if you purchased Bonds anytime during the past 15 years, you’re losing money. Yes, those are unrealized losses – until you need the money and you’re forced to liquidate at pre-expiration prices. The moves and associated volumes inside the Bond market are scaring equities.

Bond Vigilantes vs the Election Results … On either side, what if Bonds don’t like the Democrat’s spending approach and/or the Republican tax cuts? Bonds are making their voice heard by threatening a massive sell off (huge interest rate increases) unless our government shows a plan for fiscal responsibility – including spending cuts. TIP #1: If Bonds continue to sell off (interest rates move markedly higher), then this market will have no choice but to sell off with them.

Is an AI unwind underway? MSFT, META, AAPL, and GOOGL all take a back seat to Nvidia when it comes to AI. As long as Nvidia remains higher – all’s right with the world. Nvidia is a $3T company with a 60% implied volatility. That is a scary amount of volatility associated with the second largest corporation in the world. TIP #2: If shareholders start to grumble about the lack of AI earnings, then NVDA will take a hit along with the P/E ratios (stock prices) of the Mag-7.

When does election volatility end? I believe that it’s the actions of the Bond market that will cause the S&Ps to move in one direction or another. Looking at the daily implied volatility associated with the S&Ps, it appears that next Friday is being given the highest probability for knowing the resolution of the election.

SPX Expected Move (EM):

Last Week: $105 EM was anticipated and on Thursday we touched the lower edge almost to the penny.
Next Week: $153 EM … WOW – that’s 50% higher than last week, and last week was exhausting.
TIP #3: Watch the SHORT-SIDE of every Mag-7 for an AI unwind trade – until NVDA delivers earnings on November 20.

TIPS:

Overall … Global monetary policy is shifting from headwind to tailwind as inflation falls and the economic cycle data remains soft. Among the asset classes most at risk are: Mag-7, US dollar, and corporate credit. Areas of better risk/reward include: government bonds, commodities, emerging markets, healthcare, and REITs. They are relatively cheap and lightly allocated within portfolios.

HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 4.85%
ICSH == iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond Active ETF
Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,745/oz. & Silver @ $32.5/oz.
Bitcoin (BTC = $69,600 / in at $4,310)
Ethereum (ETH = 2,530 / in at $310)
HROW – Harrow Health = $45.6 / in at $12
INDA – India ETF ($54.8 / in at $50)
IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($39 / in at $24)
GLD – Gold ETF ($252 / in at $212)
o Gold ETF: Jan ‘25: +$260 / -$265 CALL-Sp.
SVM – Silvercorp Metals = ($4.6 / in at $4)
o SVM – Silvercorp Metals: Jan. ’25: +$5 Calls
DSVSF – Discovery Silver = ($0.64 / in at $0.62)

Options for Income: **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining

Bi-Weekly: BUY the Stock
BUY Puts 1 Std. Dev. OTM for protection
SELL Covered Calls ½ Std. Dev. OTM for income

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

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Sunday, October 27, 2024

This Week in. Barrons: 10.27.2024

This Week in Barrons: October 27, 2024:

To subscribe: https://rfsfinanicalnews.beehiiv.com/subscribe

“WTF is wrong with our parents?” … was the title of a Reddit post that made waves on social media by highlighting the wealth gap (and frustrations) between parents and their children. In the post, the ‘child’ explained how he has ‘scraped and suffered’ to afford a small home where he can raise two children and pay off a mountain of credit card debt. Meanwhile, his father and father-in-law have millions sitting in the bank. Three thoughts come to mind: (A) It’s the parents’ money, and they earned the right to do with it what they want. (B) I’m betting the words: ‘scraped and suffered’ have a different meaning to your father and father-in-law. (C) Any financial discussion should start with a granular budget and cash-flow – so that both sides can discuss and answer the tough questions with specifics.

Five minutes of what Paul Tudor Jones is buying & why: “I own gold and bitcoin. I think commodities are under-owned, so I'm long commodities. And I own the Nasdaq. I own zero fixed income.” Per Hank T: “Clearly the U.S. is inflating itself out of debt. Position yourself accordingly.”

The Market:

Problem Solving 101: Problems range in ‘degree of difficulty’ from easy to difficult. Solutions range from simple & elegant to complicated & convoluted. Per Seth G: It’s Tempting to solve the easy problems that require a complicated solution, but it’s a trap because their solutions are multi-disciplinary, emotional, and time-consuming. Concentrate on the Important problems that have a simple and elegant solution. They require guts and coordination. Yes, they’re Simple & Difficult, but they’re also: Important & Worth it.

The S&P 500 has risen for 6 out of the last 7 weeks, has finished 10 of the last 11 months in the green, and has posted a 13% annualized return over the last 10 years. But that didn’t stop Goldman Sachs from publishing a rather glum projection that the S&Ps will only deliver a 3% return during the next 10 years. Why? Because the S&Ps are more expensive now than during any other time in our history (excluding the Dot-Com crash). It will take the next 10-years to work off the hangover associated with the AI party we’ve been having.

Tip #1: A couple facts during earnings season:

The Mag-7 drive ALL S&P earnings growth.
The Mag-7 have doubled all S&P earnings in 2024.
Nvidia accounts for a majority of the Mag-7’s 2024 out-performance – because its biggest customers are the other members in the Mag-7. BofA just raised its NVDA ($141) price target from $165 to $190.

[ Gain access to Upmarket here… ]

InfoBits:

“Don’t Buy the Dip – buy the strength after the dip” … Brian Shannon

Gloom-man Sachs predicts that the: “S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal total return of 3% during the next 10 years, and roughly 1% on a real basis.” Goldman is predicting a decade-long bear market.

Polymarket has seen +$2B in bets on the U.S. presidential race. Thus far, only 12% of all Polymarket betters are profitable.

Walmart is widening its prescription-drug delivery program… to 49 states by the end of January. Its 4,600 US pharma-capable stores will be able to deliver to 86% of households in as quickly as 30 minutes.

Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses… are the best-selling frames in 60% of European stores - according to EssilorLuxottica.

Tesla's operating income jumped +54% YoY … on an 8% revenue increase. Their own Cybertruck was the third best-selling EV in the U.S. – beating out every other EV not made by Tesla.

Freshman enrollment fell 5% … in U.S. colleges and universities.

Existing home sales fell … to their lowest level since Sept. 2010, and on track to eclipse the 1995 all-time-low.

Boeing's 33,000 production workers voted to continue their strike … rejecting a 35% pay raise over four years and $7K in bonuses. Boeing is our largest exporter (in $’s) and still has failed to turn a profit since 2018.

UnitedHealth (UNH) finally disclosed that +100m Americans… had their data stolen during a February ransomware attack on one of UNH’s subsidiaries.

Waymo just closed on $5.6B in funding… led by parent company Alphabet, and joined by a16z, Silver Lake, and a Who’s Who of venture firms.

Crypto-Bytes:

BTC ETF inflows were massive over the past week … with Blackrock’s IBIT leading the pack with +$1.6B inflow. ~9% of totally available BTC (under 2m) is available on exchanges for trading. 71% of Bitcoin hodlers have been holding for over a year. [Bottom Line: There’s a supply-side shock coming for buyers.]

Kraken is taking a page from Coinbase’s playbook… and launching a blockchain using Base’s tech, because why reinvent the wheel? Expect cheaper, faster transactions, and maybe some better tools to play with.

Payments giant Stripe acquired Bridge … a stablecoin payments company for $1.1B

Farcaster’s revenue is down 96% from February’s peak… Once hyped as a “SocialFi” hotspot – it seems the platform’s user engagement is fading fast. Even with a billion-dollar valuation, getting non-crypto users to care is proving tricky.

Tether, the most traded stablecoin cryptocurrency in the world … is being investigated by the DOJ for possible violations of money laundering statutes and U.S. sanctions against entities such as terrorists and arms dealers.

BTC Price Action … Bitcoin bulls are now worried because yesterday it closed below a head-and-shoulders neckline ($67,100) – yet above a major trendline ($67,000). The neckline and trendline will cross on Nov. 2 – so let the games begin.

ETH Price Action … It’s weird to see Bitcoin look exceptionally bullish and Ethereum the total opposite. ETH is below its 200-day and 20-day moving averages, but it’s the ugly bear flag that bulls are worried about. A daily close below $2,339 could indicate an even deeper dive south.

[ Learn about VaultCraft - here… ]

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

“Don’t change your story when you or your team are bored. Change your story when your accountant is bored.” … Jay Levinson

Friday: Major averages had their first weekly decline in 7 weeks, as mixed earnings and rising Treasury yields were enough to create a pullback. In addition to earnings, the currency moves, and bonds – the Presidential election is less than 2-weeks away. News out of China overnight indicated that their top legislative body would meet from Nov. 4 thru 8. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield remained above 4.2%. Next week brings out the tech heavy weights with AAPL, AMD, MSFT and GOOGL as well as the October Jobs Report on Friday. Keep an eye on the DOW (DIA) as it’s down ~1,500 points in the last 6 sessions.

Morgan’s Moments…

Per Anthony P: “The U.S. is on an unsustainable path. Our national debt is growing to the sky and our currency is being debased at a rapid rate. If you think inflation is only going to be 3% per year for a decade, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. Valuations, earnings, market sentiment – nothing matters nearly as much as currency debasement. As long as the world will buy our debt – our markets are going higher.”

Recession: J.P. Morgan is on the pessimistic side of the recessionary fence, believing that there’s a 35% probability of a recession before the end of 2024 – and a 45% probability of one in 2025. A couple thoughts to prepare for a recession: (a) Focus on consumers as ‘Consumer Staples’ was the best-performing sector in the 2008 recession. (b) Kimberley Clark (KMB) is a low-risk option trading under 18X earnings. And (c) Target (TGT) trades at 15.5X earnings vs. Costco’s 55X and Wal-Mart’s 35X.

Next Week: 2-Sided Trading is Back…

Bkgd: More interesting than last week’s 60-point S&P reversal, is that the QQQs haven't moved in 5 weeks – despite sectors rotating like crazy beneath the surface. The VIX is telling us something big is brewing, and gold's unexpected rally alongside the strong dollar has me worried. Combine these pieces with next week’s massive tech earnings, and the wildest interest rate action I've seen in months – and you have a Perfect Opportunity Storm. Next week's SPX expected move jumped to $105 (from $69) – which is the kind of increased volatility that makes my trader heart skip-a-beat.

Sector Rotations are underway… On Friday, we had the S&Ps move from 5900 down to 5840 – and traders everywhere smiled. They smiled because the weekly Expected Move (EM) for the SPX was $69; therefore, we remained within the weekly EM (nothing crazy) and we moved around enough to comfort the day traders. Although the Nasdaq has done nothing for the past month, the financials, utilities, consumer staples, materials, and healthcare are getting clobbered – and that is weighing on the overall market. Currently, we’re seeing broad-based weakness across the S&P – except for technology.

Big Bad Earnings week… is coming for technology. A simple (small risk – big reward) way to potentially play this week’s tech earnings is:

The day of a particular company’s after-the-bell earnings,
At 3pm – Buy (for a small fee) 1 Call and 1 Put Butterfly – positioned an Expected Move away from the company’s 3 o’clock market price.
The following morning sell the winner for a 1X to 3X multiple.

VVIX sees Risk Returning… The VVIX exploded above the 110 level – so it’s time to: ‘Put on the Big Boy Pants’ as hedging activity is back. This past week was all about Tesla and Nvidia holding the entire market away from the brink of collapse.

Is this market uneasiness about the election? Market uneasiness is about Mag-7 earnings, guidance, and AI going forward.

What keeps me up at night is:

Watching gold, the Dollar, Bitcoin, and interest rates all move higher in tandem.
Watching the SPX expected move increase by +150% from $69 this week to $105 for next week.
Tip #2 - #6: Hope for Tech earnings to be spectacular, otherwise move into:

GLD, SLV, & DXY,
+MSFT over $432 – could run to $460,
+BTC over $68k – could run to $73k,
+COIN over $210 – could run to $260, and
+MARA over $18.5 – could run to $26.

TIPS:

Overall, there is a clear sense of apprehension starting to set-in, and stocks are pulling back as everyone de-risks prior to the election. The election will probably clear the path for a year-end rally, but it’s currently causing a re-think surrounding asset allocation.

HODL’s: (Hold-On for Dear Life)

13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 4.75%
Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,760/oz. & Silver @ $33.9/oz.
**Bitcoin (BTC = $67,000 / in at $4,310)
**Ethereum (ETH = 2,460 / in at $310)
HROW – Harrow Health = $50.6 / in at $12
INDA – India ETF ($54.7 / in at $50)
**IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($38 / in at $24)
GLD – Gold ETF ($255 / in at $212)
o Gold ETF: Jan ‘25: +$260 / -$265 CALL-Sp.
SVM – Silvercorp Metals = ($4.7 / in at $4)
o SVM – Silvercorp Metals: Jan. ’25: +$5 Calls
DSVSF – Discovery Silver = ($0.75 / in at $0.62)

Options to Reduce Risk:

XLU – Utilities: Jan ’25: $85 / $89 CALL-Sp.
WEC – Wisconsin Power: Jan ’25: +$100 / -$105 CALL-Sp.

Options as Hedges:

SPY – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$520 / -$500 PUT-Sp.
SPY – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$500 PUTs

Options for Income: **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining

Bi-Weekly: BUY the Stock
BUY Puts 1 Std. Dev. OTM for protection
SELL Covered Calls ½ Std. Dev. OTM for income

** Crypto-Currency aware

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

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If you'd like to view R.F.'s actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a StockTwits follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see R.F. in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0