This Week in Barrons: 1.12.2025

 

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Just as retail traders are going all-in on stocks, the indexes are becoming more concentrated and uncertainty surrounding our new fiscal / monetary policies is growing. We desperately need Mag-7 earnings to out-perform.   But a bit of stock market indigestion is to be expected at this stage of the election cycle. Q1 volatility is an understatement with: expensive valuations, stretched investor / consumer sentiment, and policy uncertainty. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1122025-r-f-culbertson-l9txc 

This Week in Barrons: 1.5.2025

 

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Per Callum Thomas, 2024 was a year that featured all the hallmarks of a raging bull market. Heading into 2025, expectations are running hot, and the hurdles for a third calendar year in a row of 20%+ gains are high. It’s possible that the bull market keeps moving higher-for-longer, but probabilities do not favor that outcome. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-152025-r-f-culbertson-jrsic 

This Week in Barrons: 12.29.2024

 

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Late last week, the Santa Claus rally got body-slammed.  Someone woke the Bear and violently sold the NAS into the ‘Bidless Zone’. Bonds weren’t catching a bid, and when money chooses US Dollars over Treasuries – you know something’s gone awry. The issue I’m seeing now is complete correlation. When everything’s moving in the same direction at the same time == “Danger, Will Robinson – Danger!” Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-12292024-r-f-culbertson-fku2c 

This Week in Barrons: 12.15.2024

 

Read this week's blog post:  https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-12152024-r-f-culbertson-xtyxc 

Markets are Breaking Bad. 

• It’s scary to see traders selling their losers at 52-week lows and piling into the Mag-7 winners. 
• Friday (12.20) could be the largest ($5T) options expiration in history. 
• Re-inflation is igniting commodities vs stocks vs bonds discussions: commodities are winners in a resurging economy, and bonds are winners in a recession. 
• Bitcoin continues to gain adoption … slowly - then suddenly. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 12.8.2024

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1282024-r-f-culbertson-nbyoc 

This market is behaving like a bad soap-opera.  (a) Key sectors are pivoting and hemorrhaging value – while tech is powering higher.  (b) Stocks are trading on holiday volume – while option volume is soaring.  (c) And the SKEW is at all-time-highs – causing Puts / hedges to be bought like they’re going out of style. What’s goin’ on?  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 12.1.2024

 

This Week in Barrons: 12.1.2024

The S&Ps closed up ~6% in November (+26.47% YTD).  Among all the bullish, euphoric indicators, we have a stocks-to-bonds ratio that is stretched, divergent, and often self-correcting.  We also have the highest hedging activity in history – which begs the question: Did the Santa Claus Rally come early?  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 11.24.2024

 

(1) Bitcoin appears ready for the ‘pause-that-refreshes’.  $100k is a major barrier and extremely bullish when we break through. (2) The third year of this bull market (beginning Oct. 2022) will be tricky, but if the bull lives through it – the next few years will be solid. (3) Mutual Funds are holding less cash than usual, and remain underweight Mag-7 tech.  Please CLICK and feel free to read the blog post: