RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, October 23, 2016

This Week in Barrons - 10-23-2016

This Week in Barrons – 10-23-2016:
























The World has gone Mad:

I found a headline this week that seemed so absurd: “The World Health Organisation finds that: ‘Failure to find a sexual partner’ is now a DISABILITY.”  Until now, the failure to achieve pregnancy after 12 months or more of regular unprotected sex - was NOT considered to be a disability.  In a dramatic move, the World Health Organization (WHO) will change the disability standard to include: a person who is unable to find a suitable sexual partner or is lacking a sexual relationship to have children.”  The WHO says the change should give every individual the right to reproduce.  http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/723323/Sexual-partner-fertility-disability-World-Health-Organisation-IVF

And then there is the by-line out of Niantic, Connecticut: “Students at Lillie B. Haynes Elementary School can Kiss Halloween Goodbye.  Principal DeLoreto canceled the school’s annual Halloween traditions in a letter to parents because she contends some students may feel excluded from the festivities, and adults may come dressed up as something scary.  We believe school day activities must be inclusive for all students, and we must be sensitive in regards to holidays and celebrations of religious, cultural or secular nature.  Please know classroom celebrations will continue to take place however, they will be Fall themed, not Halloween.”

And finally there’s the all-to-real story that Chris wrote about:
-       A 120-year-old company that once thrived, is now operating at 50%.
-       When times were good, management and employees entered into a compensation and pension plan that guaranteed everyone a base salary of $107,239, 10 weeks of paid vacation, 12 weeks of paid sick time, and generous health benefits.
-       But like so many of our companies and government entities, they assumed that the good times would last forever.
-       They also counted on an 8% Return On Investment (ROI).
-       Unfortunately, with interest rates pegged at ZERO for the last eight years – they find their pension plan only 65% funded, and in need of $10.4M to meet current obligations.
-       New management estimates that (without changes) they will have to close their doors permanently in 8 months – June of 2017. 
-       The plan of action is to find ways to increase revenues, and dramatically reduce expenses.
-       Revenues have been declining for more than a decade, because their product is discretionary, and they are being forced to compete against many newer and cheaper forms of entertainment.
-       The company’s largest expense is employee salaries and pensions, and implementing any significant cuts would run head-long into the employee union and would probably result in a strike.
-       The company is the Pittsburgh Symphony Orchestra.
-       Stories like this are going to be surfacing at an accelerating rate over the next several years due to our FED’s zero interest rate policy (ZIRP).
-       Massive, un-funded pension obligations are sitting out there unable to earn the required returns in a ZIRP world.
-       These obligations can only be met through drastic cuts, or increased taxes (in the case of government obligations).
-       None of this was ever mentioned by any of the Presidential candidates.
-       The Pittsburgh Symphony musicians are being asked to take dramatic pay cuts, and to transition their current defined benefit plan to a 401k.
-       They have instead decided to strike.

Unfortunately for them (and many others), there is no way to make the math work without substantial concessions by them, and substantial interest rate moves by our FED.


The Market...
Below (courtesy of Stockcharts.com) is a monthly chart of the DOW. 



In the beginning of July, the market rebounded from the Brexit sell off, and soared higher.  It then moved sideways for a couple of months.  In the beginning of September, it plunged down to a new support level, and has been trading sideways in a narrower band.  Long periods of sideways action create market pressures, and just like a watch, a spring, or a rubber band – at some point the pressure has to be released.  The only real question is: will we breakout or break down?

There is NO question about the market being supported.  The big tails on the bottom of the candles denote areas where the market has faded during the session, only to see ‘someone’ (in the 11th hour) come and rescue the day.  Last Friday (for example) the DOW was down 112 points, feeling heavy and heading lower.  But then in the last 30 minutes, buyers with deep pockets came in and brought the market higher to end the day down a mere 16 points.  We know that mutual and equity funds have seen OUT-flows over the past 5 out of 6 weeks – so we know the ‘smart money’ isn’t buying.  That only leaves our friends the Central Banksters.  While they don't appear willing to push us to new highs like they used to, it is evident that they will keep the market from falling too far.

November and December are typically strong months, but this time around we have an election – the likes of which we've never seen.  Most market experts are looking for a fairly significant sell-off after the election (no matter which candidate wins).  But honestly it could just come down to a decision by the:
-       ECB, whether they continue QE past March of 2017,
-       Swiss National Bank (wink-wink) whether they continue to invest in our stock market,
-       Bank of Japan, whether they will further lower negative interest rates, or
-       Our FED, whether they choose to increase interest rates in December.

Our Central Banksters have proven that as long as they keep printing money, they can keep this market running sideways.  But it isn't all kittens and rainbows out there:
-       Bombardier will cut 7,500 more jobs through 2018,
-       IBM had its 18th consecutive quarterly revenue drop,
-       Ford plans on shutting down 4 plants over next few weeks, including an F-150 plant,
-       The Empire Manufacturing Report plunged another 6 points lower,
-       The CEO of CAT is leaving after 45 consecutive months of falling sales, and
-       Julian Assange had his internet capability cut ‘by the state’, and there are all sorts of rumors that he has gone underground or has been killed.

However, the most disturbing graph that I saw all week was the ‘Freight Index’ graph below.  It failed to rise in September, and that move is worrisome to me.


Donald Broughton (Managing Director and Sr. Transportation Analyst for Avondale Partners) says: “September data is once again signaling that overall shipment volumes and pricing continued to be weak, with manufacturing, wholesale and retail continuing to try and work down inventory."  In September, index measurements for freight shipments and expenditures fell 3.1% and 3.8%, respectively – compared to a year ago.  It was the 19th straight month of shipment declines.  Broughton said that continued weakness in freight movements is being driven by the excess capacity in trucking, rail, air freight, barge, ocean container and bulk.  “We see little reason to predict a change in course or any strength in any pricing rates for most transportation methods going forward.”  All this, is happening against a backdrop of the U.S. economy in a state of transition.  “After the explosion in fracking activity from 2009 to 2014, we have been patiently waiting for the consumer to take the baton of leadership in economic growth.  But lower fuel prices have simply allowed U.S. consumers to pay down debt and increase their savings rate.  The consumer has not yet picked up where the industrial economy left off.”  Broughton also sounded the alarm over our FED raising interest rates.  “It will make an already strong U.S. dollar even stronger, and that will hurt the overall economy and freight.  Historically, a strong dollar has produced a serious headwind for freight volumes, first in our exports, and then in a reduction in domestic manufacturing and assembly.  Nothing in the freight flow data suggests that another rate hike is warranted, or even that the first hike in December of 2015 was necessary.”


Tips:

I think you buy a stock when: 1) the stock has a nice technical pattern, 2) it has some ‘reason’ to move higher (such as earnings), and 3) we are in a flat to rising market.  Lately my issue has been with the overall market.  One day it’s up 100 points, and then it falls back 200 points.  We've only had ONE instance of back to back ‘UP’ days this entire month.  For the past several months the market has been crawling sideways in a loosely defined range of 2120 to 2190.

In so far as how the election could influence your investing, there are TWO elements that I believe we are going to lose when ‘the machine’ takes office: 1) Our Right to Bear Arms.  Hillary will have to wait to override the 2nd Amendment for a Supreme Court appointment – but I think defensive weapons will be severely curtailed immediately.  And 2) Our Freedom of Speech.  Hillary and Obama have publicly stated that alternative news outlets like Drudge or Alex Jones should NOT be allowed to exist.  We are going to have to rebuild within this wild-wild-west-of-information flow some sort of curating function," Obama said at an innovation conference in Pittsburgh.  Our ‘freedom’ to state any opinion and calmly disagree with someone else, along with our ‘right’ to arm ourselves is fairly unique around the world.  I’m seeing forces that want to bear down on both of these issues.  The investment opportunity is in the firearms arena – where business is booming.  I’ve been told that many is the day people are lined up 2 and 3 deep at the counter in order to be waited on. 
-       Think about: Smith & Wesson (SWHC), Sturm – Ruger (RGR), and Vista Outdoors (VSTO) – to take advantage of the run-up in firearms.
-       Look at: Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), Western Refining (WNR), and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – to take advantage of increased oil prices,
-       Watch: Morgan Stanley (MS) – as bank earnings have been great, and
-       Facebook (FB) has earnings coming up – so watch it for an earnings run.

What we don't have here is a flat to rising trend market – so look at these and be careful out there.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.
 
Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson





Sunday, October 16, 2016

This Week in Barrons - 10-16-2016

This Week in Barrons – 10-16-2016:


“The U.S. dollar is taking no prisoners.”


The Dollar:
The dollar index continues to climb higher, and that has ominous implications for the stock market.  The firing of a daily ‘squeeze’ has taken the dollar index from 94 to 98 in a very short period of time.  The weekly and monthly ‘squeezes’ still waiting to fire, give us a recipe for continued dollar strength relative to all of the other currencies.  The last time a monthly ‘squeeze’ fired (2 years ago) we gained 20 points.  Therefore, when this one fires it could be a disaster for a lot of currency markets – taking down the Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euro, and British Pound to name a few.  Commodity prices will also be trashed, and a lot of industries depend upon stable commodity prices such as food, oil and mining.  Gold is a little dicey because as uncertainty increases – so does the price of gold.  But to be safe, buy gold in Euros – because the Euro will go down faster than the price of gold.  A cheaper currency is good for many places including the European Union – because it makes their exports ‘cheaper’ in U.S. dollars.  The real issue is ‘emerging economies’ where they still pay their debts in U.S. dollars.  With the value of the dollar rising, they will need to pay more in their local currency to equal the same number of U.S. dollars.  It’s similar to having an adjustable rate mortgage in a rising interest rate environment.  So a significantly stronger dollar will destroy emerging economies.  

One reason for the dollar moving higher is that the market is adjusting to a December FED interest rate increase.  Interest rate moves happen over decades, and as rates rise – bond prices fall.  This trend is reflected on the graph below showing bond prices since 2008. 




For the last couple of decades, rates have been steadily moving lower – all the while bond prices have increased.  The good news is that bonds will predict catastrophic failure (before it is reflected in the economy) by taking out the trend line shown on the graph.  The bonds and dollar move conversely – that is to say as the dollar increases in value the bonds will go lower.  Therefore, when the dollar explodes higher, bonds will break the trend line, and that will foretell increased market volatility.

Rick Santelli of CNBC remarked: “It’s incredible for me to think that there have been 100 FED meetings and only one rate increase”.  SF suggested that our FED could even be monitoring the wrong elements.  Rather than measuring elements that include ‘fictitious adjustments’ – why not simply report only the real numbers and allow our experts to draw their own conclusions.  For example: on Friday the retail sales number came in much LOWER than expected; however, an undisclosed ‘seasonal adjustment’ turned this disaster into a 0.6% GAIN.


The second reason that the dollar is moving higher is that major sovereign wealth funds are experiencing a ‘lack of confidence’.  The U.S. is the most ‘liquid’ market in the world; therefore, if you’re in charge of a $100B sovereign wealth fund, you need to have some of your fund invested in the U.S.  With the current ‘lack of confidence’ and the currency unwinding that is going on, the dollar is going higher simply because there is nowhere else to hide.  Wealth funds are simply buying dollars due to their low-risk and high liquidity.

The dollar exploding higher exposes stock market risk.  With Amazon rising from $34.68 in 2009 to $824 today and Google moving from $123 in 2009 to $804 today – there is a legitimate question of how much higher can these stocks go?  A higher dollar hurts U.S. stocks because companies will not be able to sell their goods and services overseas (due to their higher prices) – causing revenues and profits to decline.  The higher dollar will also reinforce an exodus in U.S. manufacturing.

Ms. Yellen, just ask yourself a simple question: Are U.S. tax revenues covering government spending (yes/no)?  If the answer is ‘yes’ – then raise interest rates (which will naturally slow down the economy).  If the answer is ‘no’ (our tax revenues do not even come close to covering government spending) – then how can you raise rates?  The good news is that all of the numbers are regularly on display at: http://www.usdebtclock.org.



The Market: 



“The market’s momentum & fundamentals are gone – it’s just a leap of faith”

We all know that the real reason that this market hasn’t fallen apart is due to our friendly Central Banksters.  It’s no longer rumor that the Swiss National Bank owns $80B+ of U.S. stocks, or that the Japanese Government owns over 50% of all stocks on the Japanese exchange.  Central Banksters are in a unique position of being able to print money out of thin air, and use it to buy up futures and stocks.  A well-timed futures buy (using a few billion in ‘funny money’) can turn a falling market into a roaring blast higher.

Tuesday we saw earnings warnings from Alcoa, Wal-Mart and Honeywell.  The market fell under the S&P’s 2144 support level and through 2140.  The last bastion of hope was the lower end ‘trend line’ of 2135, and we lost that on Friday.  This is a clear signal that this market is tired.  It's been jabbed with cattle prods for months.  Each time that it weakens, it is forced higher on the low volume Central Bankster strategic buys.  It desperately wants to correct.  But because it’s been propped it up for so long, any time it looks ready to fail – everyone is looking for the Central Banksters to step in and save it.  I don't trust this market at all.  Technically losing 2135 on a closing basis means that we're going to see 2120 soon.  Lose that and its 2100, and probably much lower.  On the upside, we need to see them get past 2145 on a closing basis for me to think there's any chance of stringing a few up days together.  But non-spectacular earnings coupled with a FED rate hike in December all but guarantee a ‘toxic sludge combo platter’.

But what about the election?  Once the election is over, our Central Banksters do NOT have to keep the market UP any longer.  If Trump were to win, the market could fall like a rock – sending a message to all that Trump's ideas are all wrong.  But what if Hillary wins?  I think that the Central Banksters will no longer go out of their way to hold the market up, and will allow a prolonged melt down.  The U.S. suffers from ‘normalcy bias’ – the idea that since nothing bad has happened – it won’t.

On Friday the SEC's 2a-7 rule went into effect.  The timing of this is interesting as it is a post-2008 ruling that effects what happens to money market funds when a lot of people would like to withdraw their funds at the same time.  Money market funds are mandated to keep their NAV (Net Asset Value) at par ($1 = 1 share).  This can be difficult on a large scale – especially in this negative interest rate environment.  Fending off too many people trying to withdraw their money will create enormous stresses on the system.  This new rule allows the NAV to ‘float’ which ultimately means that money invested in a money market fund could actually lose value.  The whole reason people park money in money market funds is because it is safe.  But wait, it gets worse.  The rule states that in “times of excess stress” funds can HALT redemptions completely for 10 days.  CFO’s are already moving their money into Government treasuries – that are NOT subject to the new rule including the redemption halt rule.

For J. Q. Public, who utilizes a money market as a part of his 401k strategy – the most important element of that money market fund now becomes LIQUIDITY.  For example: if you’re a fund manager running 401K's for 5,000 companies – in the past you could utilize any money market fund because they were all simply required to meet the NAV test.  With a floating NAV, it would be easy for a particular money market fund to throw up the ‘halt redemption’ sign, and keep people from getting their money for a period of 10 days.  So liquidity becomes the most important test.

The timing of this rule is interesting to me along with it being another way to get more people to buy into Government treasuries.  I wouldn't be terribly nervous, except that it is just one more in a long string of reasons why our financial system is creaking and groaning. 


TIPS:
Make a New Year’s Eve resolution to review: http://www.usdebtclock.org on a regular basis.  An interesting figure is that Total Unfunded US Liabilities (including Social Security, Medicare Parts A, B and D, Federal Debts held by the Public, and Federal and VA Benefits) currently exceed $103.8 Trillion. 

I continue to get questions on gold and silver.  Allow me to take another view of this from a more technical perspective known as the ‘Elliot Wave Theory’.  I recognize that there are appropriate times to buy gold and silver and appropriate times to sell it.  Right now, I believe we are being given another low-risk opportunity to buy gold mining stocks and potentially double our investment again over the next year.  By using the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)  as the representative chart for this market, I view the rally off the lows earlier this year as the 1st Wave in the initial phase of a new bull market. That would mean this current pullback would be classified as a Wave #2.  Targets for these second waves are often the .500-.618 retracement region of the prior Wave 1 rally.  That places our GDX bottoming region between $19.80 and $22.10.  We are currently at 22.99.  As long as this 19.80 to 22.10 region holds as support, I am looking for Wave #3 to take GDX to at least the $51 region over the next year, with the potential to even extend toward the $60 region.  This ‘technical’ theory deals in probabilities rather than absolutes.  Therefore, the first test the market must pass is to have GDX remain over $19.80 for the next 10 days.  Any break down below that region significantly lowers the probabilities for this pattern set up.  However, if we do hold that support, and strongly break out over the August highs, the probabilities increase that we will be heading over $50 quite quickly.  So, rather than listening to the news or theories about the election, approach the market from using probabilities – so that you can make the appropriate investment decision once you see how the market reacts over the next 10 days. 

From a more fundamental view there are a couple things you could do.  (a) You can sell your $20k investment for $70k and walk away with a smile and a $50k profit. Or (b) examine the news:
-       Last week we had gold go down due to a billion-dollar paper gold flush – perfectly timed for when the Chinese gold exchange was closed.
-       Physical silver demand continues to out-pace supply – especially with the continued emphasis on cell phones and solar energy.
-       ‘Silver stackers’ continue to buy silver eagles and bars, and supply-demand situation is actively engaged in a tug-of-war with the higher dollar.
-       The world is shifting away from the U.S. dollar as its reserve currency to the SDR.  China has been allowed into the SDR, and at some point I expect them to begin backing a small percentage of their Yuan with gold.  Once they do that, there will be a mad scramble for gold – because it will have the legitimacy of becoming ‘money’ again.  

Suggestions:
-       FXE – November Puts (bet on the Euro moving lower),
-       NVDA – look for a move from 65 to 69,
-       Oil:
o   ‘Short term’ should continue to move higher simply due to the over concerns of supply and demand. 
o   When oil gets between $55 and $60 per barrel, it will become more impacted by the dollar.
-       With the impending Rate Hike:
o   Financials should rally,
o   Bonds should continue to roll-over and die,
o   The U.S. Dollar should move higher,
o   Tech stocks look tired, and
o   Consumer stocks like Starbucks and Disney – look stronger to the downside due to higher oil prices.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

 
R.F. Culbertson