RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Saturday, December 26, 2020

This Week in Barrons: December 27th, 2020

 This Week in Barrons:  December 27, 2020  

 



COVID Lesson #14:  “So, what did you get?”  As you get older, you realize that the best presents are the ones you cannot wrap and put under a tree.  Those are the intangible ones that made us who we are, and fit nicely anywhere – anytime.

 

COVID Lesson #15:  “Get an NDA signed ASAP.”  People hesitate to share their ideas because they’re worried that it will be stolen.  Studies have shown that those same people are afraid of success – not failure.  An unspoken idea is: safe, can’t be stolen, but it also can’t be tested, criticized, improved or used in the real world.  There will always be doubts, but if you wait for those doubts to go away – so will the window for the opportunity.  

 

COVID Lesson #16:  “Did this solve your problem?”…   is not the same as: “Did you work hard?”  Quality is in the eyes of the customer – so you need to begin with: “Who’s the customer?”  For example, asking: “Was it a good wedding?” may mean: “Did the bride feel special?” or it may mean: “Did you have fun?”.  Only after we answer: (a) Who’s the customer? and (b) What problem are we solving? – can we begin to become more efficient about our offering and target market.

 

 

The Market:  The death of the IPO…

 




COVID Lesson #17:  How do I make any real money in this market?  Well, I guess that means you can’t take the volatility of the true growth market = crypto-currencies … or per HL: you need to gain a better understanding of the SPAC process.  Investors are beginning to handicap SPACs for large moves.  After the Virgin Galactic and DraftKings SPACs, I figured SPACs would be a ‘thing’, but certainly NOT a phenomenon.  People of all ages and backgrounds are handicapping SPACs: their markets, products, and management teams.  The market will turn at some point due to increased SPAC supply, but currently it’s a SPAC world and we’re just living in it.  OR you can always grow a pair, and get to know crypto-currencies.  #HedgeHog.app


COVID Lesson #18:  The SEC just approved a new way for companies to go public – the “Primary Direct Floor Listing” (PDFL).  It allows companies to raise money IPO-style, AND get the right price (direct listing-style) for their equity.  Companies can gain cash to grow their business and graduate from private to public – without paying huge fees to investment banks for mis-priced IPO’s.  DoorDash ($102) and Airbnb ($68) recently IPO’d.  The investment banks only missed their target pricing by 86% and 113% respectively.   Investment banks (egregious fees) and institutional investors (special treatment) cringe at the thought of PDFLs.  Just as crypto will eliminate cross-border transaction fees, I will rejoice when PDFL’s end the traditional IPO.

 


InfoBits:




-       Small businesses lost big on the 1st PPP:   The 1st Payroll Protection Program was intended to help SMBs (small and medium-sized businesses), but it was big business who really benefited.  Over half of the $525B in PPP loans went to less than 5% of the businesses.  Since COVID, over 100,000 SMBs have closed, and 90% of the big guys have been remained profitable.  #FreeMoney

 

-       Moderna doesn’t mind coming in 2nd:   The FDA approved the company’s COVID vaccine for emergency use, and this weekend the initial 6m doses are being shipped to over 3,000 locations across the U.S.

 

-       Mommy, I want an Apple car:   Apple likes the EV market and wants to be part of it by 2024.  Unfortunately, the average car has 30,000 parts, and is a little tougher to assemble than adding an 8th camera to an iPhone 14.  The only hang-up about the Apple car is that: it won’t have Windows.

 

-       If you join a gym in January…   there’s a 4% chance you’ll quit by the end of January, a 14% chance you’ll hang it up by the end of February, and an 80% chance you’ll never make it to Memorial Day.  Fitness just ain’t our thing.

 

-       Fire Eye was hacked on December 8th:   It seems other country’s hackers are better than our hackers, and they even stole our hacker’s tools.  We’re continuing to pay the price of having an educational system that sucks.

 

-       COVID killed bars and restaurants...   but some small businesses (that managed to pivot) are doing well.  For example, Etsy (ETSY) and Shopify (SHOP) provide platforms for entrepreneurs to expand their audiences.  Etsy’s stock is up 400% this year and Shopify’s is up 300%.

 

-       New COVID cases have risen over 500% since Labor Day…   because Americans are tired of staying home.  Our impatience is literally killing us.

 

-       The UK has reached a Post-Brexit agreement with the EU.  It only took them 5 years to divorce.  After all: ‘Breaking-up is hard to do.’

 

-       Strip Clubs = 1 // NBA = 0:   In the NBA bubble at Walt Disney World, the NBA had ZERO COVID cases for over 3 months.  Thus far, the new NBA season (NOT at Walt Disney World) lasted only 1 DAY before three Rockets tested positive.  The outbreak comes after the Rocket’s James Harden was spotted at a strip club.  #BoysWillBeBoys 

 

-       In 2021, SUPPLY IS COMING…   and per HL: “It will be up to you to figure out when that oversupply will lead to a market downdraft.  SPAC’s, IPO’s, and Direct Listings will continue because stocks only go up.”

o   Robin Hood has allowed people to unbundle the indexes,

o   Trends in Healthcare and Fintech will certainly continue,

o   Education via Massive Open Online Courses will gain public attention, and 

o   Governments will continue to gang up on the FAANG’s.

 

 

Crypto-Bytes:


-       Bitcoin breaks $26,000 – what bigger present do you need?  Merry Bitmas.

 


 

Last Week:

 



Monday:  Today, I could see us falling 500 points on profit taking, or finding that ‘the vaccines will work on this new strain of COVID’ and up we go for another 400.   I’m sitting in January covered-calls in: CTIC, NGD, PAAS, DM, HYLN, and IPOC.  The market is getting nervous, as the VIX certainly woke up.  But after being down -430 on the DOW – they’ve walked us back to even on virtually no volume.  Isn’t FOMO grand.  People are still buying dips – despite our economic horror show.  I shouldn’t complain, because both IPOC and DM have lit it up for me.

 

Tuesday:  The futures are green across the board, which isn't shocking if you witnessed the ‘kick save’ that the PPT did yesterday.  They say we’re green because of the $900B relief package.  Doing a little math: the U.S. has 330m people – giving everyone $600 only totals $200B.  Where’s the other $700B going?  I found another SPAC that may want to blast off – Fiii (FIII).  If it gets over $12.90, I'll take some.

 

Wednesday:  Trump rejected the 5,000-page, pork laden stimulus bill.  Over 800,000 new citizens filed for first time unemployment last week, and naturally the market rejoiced.  It’s 1999 again = been there - done that.  Take a peek at FCEL over $12.75, and Fiii (FIII) over $13.70 – both work for me.

 

 

Marijuana…

 


 

-       New Jersey will soon begin licensing…   marijuana growers, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers.  The state’s 13 medical dispensaries will be able to begin selling to the general population within the next 3 to 6 months.

 

-       Canopy Growth is parting ways with its investment arm…   Canopy Rivers.  It was focused on investing in cannabis companies.

 

-       Acreage Holdings has appointed a new CEO…  Peter Caldini.  Peter has extensive experience in the VC and pharmaceutical sectors.

 

-       Aurora Cannabis laid off 200 more employees…   and cut production to 75% of capacity.

 

-       Oklahoma leads our nation in MJ cultivation licenses.  California is widely touted as the largest legal cannabis market, but this year Oklahoma surpassed Cali in issuing commercial growing permits.  #GoSooners

 

 

Next Week:  The Gamma Squeeze is ON




-       Tesla joins the S&Ps:  

o   After Monday, when we experienced ‘shock and awe’ with Tesla being added to the S&Ps – the week ended massively unchanged.  The small caps, financials, MSFT and Apple were higher, FB and TSLA were lower.  

 

-       Tesla’s volatility is dead:

o   Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix were flat to higher on the week, but the important part is that the S&P has tamed TSLA’s volatility.

o   The addition of the ‘Tesla wild child’ to the S&Ps – removed the volatility from TSLA, and not vice versa.  The ‘statistical arbitrage’ associated with the S&Ps, will hijack most of Tesla’s volatility.  As proof, Tesla (since joining the S&Ps) has experienced its lowest volatility of the year.

 

-       The new COVID relief bill places limitations on the FED:

o   The bill rescinds $429B in uncommitted funds, and 5 of the FED’s programs, including their Main Street Lending Program, will cease operations on December 31, 2021.

o   Also, the FED will no longer be allowed to just buy ETFs without receiving Congressional approval.

o   So, the new COVID bill, DOES put some ‘handcuffs’ on what the FED can and can’t do going forward. 

o   But then again, we do have Ms. Janet Yellen coming in on January 20th to run the Treasury Dept.   

 

-       Volatility conundrum (Prices & Risk are both rising):

o   The VIX (a 30-day volatility index) contracted a bit this week.

o   The VVIX (volatility of the volatility index) spiked to 122, but pulled back to 115.  I’m surprised that it’s remained above the 110 level – especially since we’re coming into another ‘holiday week’ of trading.  

o   The SKEW (the ‘end-of-day’, 30-day differential of the implied volatility of the out-of-the-money Puts vs the out-of-the-money Calls) is showing one of its highest readings in a DECADE.  It’s telling us to be careful because the professionals are buying a lot of ‘out-of-the-money’ Puts.  

 

-       SPX Expected Move

o   Last week: $54.76 was the SPX expected move for a 3.5-day week.

o   Next week: $58 is the SPX expected move over 4 days.

o   The volatility will be driven by the politics going on in Washington, D.C.

 

-       Searching for Gamma Squeezes:

1.   A Gamma squeeze is a phenomenon caused by a lot of people buying at-the-money Calls – causing the ‘market makers’ to buy stock in order to level out the risk associated with them ‘selling’ you those at-the-money calls.

2.   If / when this turns into a ‘feeding frenzy’ (as it has with Tesla), the price action (with enough liquidity) with turn into a self-reinforcing prophecy.  

3.   The essential part of a Gamma squeeze is that massive liquidity must be associated with the very high Call / Put buying ratio.

4.   You can easily run a ‘scan’ to find Gamma Squeezes (see scan below) – giving you results such as: ATVI, AZO, CRWD, CYBR, HL, LEN, ORCL, and SHOP.

5.   The way to play a Gamma squeeze is to simply purchase an inexpensive, out of the money Call Spread (1 std. deviation out) in the January monthly timeframe.

 

 

Tips:

 



   For this week, look at ATVI, AZO, CLDR, CRWD, CSIQ, CYBR, EDIT, FEYE, HL, LEN, ORCL, PTON, SDS, SHOP, WDAY, and ZNGA for gamma squeezes + liquidity.  To play them, buy a January, 1-standard deviation, out-of-the-money, inexpensive call spread – and ‘make it rain’.

 

HODL’s:  (Hold On for Dear Life) / (All %’s = YTD)

-       CTIC ($3.45),

o   Just keep selling Jan. $3 and $4 covered calls for income

-       DM ($19.20 / in @ 14.24),

o   Sell Jan. $17.50 / $20 covered calls for income

-       ETHE ($16.20 / in @ $13.44 up 21%), 

-       FIII ($14.05 / in @ $12.42 up 13%),

-       GBTC ($27.35 / in @ $9.41 = up 191%), 

-       HYLN ($17.10 / in @ $0.32 = 5244%).

o   Sell Jan. $16 / $17.50 covered calls for income

-       IPOC ($15.73/ in @ $12.51),

o   Sell Jan. $12.50 / $15 covered calls for income

-       Pan American Silver (PAAS = $32.98 / in @ $13.07 = up 152%),

o   Sell Jan. $36 covered calls

 

   Crypto:

-       Bitcoin (BTC = $26,600),

-       Ethereum (ETH = $640),

-       Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $330)

 

Thoughts:

 

   Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

 

Please be safe out there!

 

Disclaimer:

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Sunday, December 20, 2020

This Week in Barrons: December 20th, 2020

 This Week in Barrons: 12-20-2020  



COVID Lesson #10: “Hey bro, I can see the future.”   If you want to see the investing future, look no further than the crypto arena.  It’s global, operates 24/7/365, allows anyone to buy, sell, or hold anything, and you can send assets anywhere as long as you have a crypto wallet and a browser / phone.  There are no other requirements.

   Crypto is also innovating in areas like: lockups, vesting, and governance.   Crypto lockups are becoming longer, but are allowing for small amounts of early and regular liquidity.  In governance, crypto has seen a number of communities make significant changes in areas like token supply, inflation rates, and technology roadmaps.

   The changes are coming – whether the equity markets like them or not.  In a crypto world, it’s straightforward to tokenize equity securities and trade the tokenized version.  I suspect that will be a reality – sooner rather than later.  It will also introduce arbitrage opportunities and put even more pressure on the equity markets to adapt.

   For regulators, the global nature of the crypto market is a challenge – especially for those that stood in the way of innovation (U.S.A.).  For example, why are the wealthy the only ones allowed to invest in startups?  Is it just so we can keep them wealthy?  Crypto doesn’t abide by national boundaries, and certainly not U.S. rules.  Honestly, crypto innovation will happen even when jurisdictions (like the U.S.) are slow to embrace and intentionally hostile toward outside-financial innovation.

 

 

The Market:  Bro, Bitcoin is Bodacious…

 



COVID Lesson #11: “The Killer B’s … Bitcoin and Biotech”.    Bitcoin and Biotech have both done incredibly well in 2020.  Bitcoin has risen from $8,100 to over $23,000, and I’m still not selling.  All of the excess supply has been absorbed, the psychological level of $20k has been broken, and we’re ready to trade based upon functionality and availability.  I could argue about the fundamentals but we won’t because it’s only the price that matters.  COVID delivered Biotech’s their right to shine.  In hindsight, the Biotech breakout was foreshadowed by the vaccine, and Bitcoin’s due to the amount of money our FED is using to prop-up our ‘Too-Big-To-Fail’ stocks.

 

COVID Lesson #12: “Holy S!@#$, FireEye got hacked!”   FireEye, the go-to cybersecurity firm for government agencies, suffered a major hack from “a nation with top-tier offensive capabilities.”  The hackers themselves came in through software offered by network-monitoring company: SolarWinds.  Put-in perspective: (a) SolarWinds is used by hundreds of thousands of orgs, government agencies, and most Fortune 500 companies. (b) The hackers also stole FireEye’s complete hacking toolkit.  (c) The hackers have been living with us (under our noses) for over 6 months.  And (d) they’ve had access to all data from social security systems to our defense, top-secret documents.  Honestly, what did we think was going to happen when all of our President’s top ‘appointments’ were based upon ‘friendship and loyalty’ versus merit and qualifications.

 


InfoBits:




-       Paying it forward:  Over 900 cars paid for each other's meals at a Dairy Queen drive-thru in Minnesota.  So fess-up, who’s the one who broke the chain?

 

-       Reddit has acquired Dubsmash…  a video platform that competes with TikTok.

 

-       Electronic Arts is acquiring….   the British game studio Codemasters.

 

-       Roblox (a gaming company) is acquiring…   digital avatar startup – Loom.ai.  

 

-       Rise of Everywhere Else:  The fact that the Bay Area is losing talent is ‘burying the lead’.  What’s more important is: The Rise of Everywhere Else.  Silicon Valley will make up less than 20% of all VC deals in 2021.  But rather than worrying about Silicon Valley, celebrate the rise of tech entrepreneurship everywhere else.

 

-       Silver Lake and Thomas Bravo…  the owners of SolarWinds (the hacked software),sold millions in stock just days before the intrusion was revealed.

 

-       Uber was issued a $59m fine…  by California for refusing to hand over sexual assault data.

 

-       Facebook told employees…  they’re developing a tool to summarize news articles so users won’t have to read them.  Also, a neural sensor to detect people’s thoughts, and translate them into actions.

 

-       AST Systems will go public…  via the New Providence SPAC at a $1.8B valuation.  ASTS’s technology allows phones to connect to satellites – making 5G available everywhere.

 

-       The Supreme Court will hear the NCAA’s appeal…   that found the NCAA guilty of unlawfully limiting compensation for collegiate athletes.  SCOTUS now holds the future of the NCAA in its hands.  If upheld, it will give students & coaches unlimited compensation for autographs, jerseys, and endorsements. 

 

-       BarkBox (subscription dog supplies)…   is going public via SPAC for $1.6B.  

 

-       Coca-Cola will cut 2.2K jobs worldwide.

 

-       Autonomous vehicle company Aurora Innovation…   sent job offers to 75% of the Uber Advanced Tech employees.  Those in Toronto didn’t make the cut.

 

-       The DOJ’s lawsuit against Google is moving along…  a tentative date for the case to begin was set as: September 2023.

 

-       Bumble (a dating app where women make the first move)…  has filed for an IPO. The offering is for February and could come around Valentine's Day.

 

-       Poshmark (a reseller of second-hand clothing)…   has filed its IPO prospectus after racking up over $30m in profit over the past two quarters.

 

-       Consolidation in the digital media sector is increasing…   as BuzzFeed and Group Nine Media explore deals to buy competitors or go public via SPAC. 

 

-       The SEC charged Robinhood with deceiving customers…   about how their stock trading app makes money, and their failure to deliver the promised best execution of trades.  Robinhood agreed to pay a $65m civil penalty.

 

-       Facebook took out full-page ads…  criticizing Apple’s privacy changes that will make it more difficult for them to poach our personal data.  So FB, you’re pissed because Apple is trying to keep ‘my data’ = ‘my data’?  #ThankYouApple

 

 

Crypto-Bytes: It’s a good year to be a Bitcoiner. 




-       Bitcoin popped…   and cracked over $23,775, the US Dollar dropped to its lowest level since April 2018, and Coinbase decided that it’s going public.  

 

-       Bitcoin, DeFi and Ethereum 2.0...   the biggest trends in crypto began to move the global needle as: funds bought billions in BTC / ETH as inflation hedges, and institutions are discussing data decentralization.  #ChangeIsPainful

 

-       Drawn down:  The amount of ether (ETH) available on exchanges is at its lowest point in two years.

 

-       Open the flood gates…   JPMorgan analysts say MassMutual’s recent $100m BTC buy could be foreshadowing a coming wave of institutional demand.

 

-       The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced…   it will launch an ETH futures contract in February 2021.  It’s building on the success of bitcoin futures and options which has become synonymous with institutional trading, and on the growing class of “ether-first” corporate traders.

 

-       Crypto checking:  New York-based Quontic Bank has become the first FDIC-insured financial institution to launch a bitcoin rewards checking program. 

 

-       Massive buy… Core Scientific has purchased over 59k state-of-the-art crypto miners, tripling its mining set-up in three southern states. 

 

-       Amex invests...  in the white-hot institutional platform Falcon X – and its $3B in monthly transactions.

 

 

Last Week:



Monday:  This morning, Google business services, mail, and YouTube all went down worldwide – but the futures could care less because vaccines are shipping, and it looks like they might agree on a $900B stimulus plan.  A couple charts that look attractive are: SURF and SNE.  SURF did well out of the gate, and I think you can take it here, but I’d really like to see a first hour pullback.  ‘A’ is looking interesting $120.24.  DQ is looking at either a quadruple top break-out, or a quad failure in the making.

 

Tuesday:  The futures are again up sharply.  Do we get back what we lost yesterday - maybe?  The FOMC starts their two-day meeting today, and the day ahead of their results is usually a green day.  I’m liking SURF over $10.74.  Another SPAC is bringing the Blade helicopter company public through EXPC.  Blade's claims that in the next 24 months, they're going to have a fleet of electric copters.  Watch EXPC.

 

Wednesday:  Today, nothing really happens until after the FED makes its move = 2:30pm.  I don't think the FED will say anything materially different than they normally do.  Retail sales didn't make the estimates, and that’s bad.  But given retail sales would be considered a "fundamental" – markets will blow that off.  I’m liking DQ > $57.10, and FLUX > $13.50.  Powell and FED just extended 0% rates to 2023, will continue their $120B / month of bond buying, COVID is a worry – but they can do more if needed.  My opinion is that you lean into this for as long as it lasts.  Names I like are: PYPL, DQ, AVGO, CHWY, PENN, PTON, and BLNK.

 

Thursday:   I’m shocked that the futures are up – after the initial jobless claims came in at a whopping 885,000.  Almost 1 million NEW people filed for unemployment benefits, and yet our futures are green.  All that matters is that the FED is printing money.  We're visiting FOMO land, so I’m leaning long and looking for something interesting to buy.  I love the metals, but for 25 years the metals have been manipulated and beaten down – I’m almost scared to mention them.  I’m making sure that the metals have sustainability, but definitely have: AUY, EXT, NGD, and PAAS on my radar.

 

Friday:  Today is quadruple witching which means it’s the sort of day where we could cross the red/green divide several times – and go nowhere.  A lot of things are still moving like it’s 1999.  CSIQ broke out of big congestion in the $45 area, and I like it over $46.71.  This market’s moving higher until it doesn’t, and there are only a few select people on the planet who know when that is.

 

 

Marijuana…  It will be all about the beverages, but don’t take my word for it.



Cannabis Consolidation Continues…   Tilray and Aphria are combining to form the largest pot company in the world.  The new company will keep Tilray’s name, and will trade on the Nasdaq.  The new Tilray will be focused on:

-       Geographic FOMO:  Canna companies don't know where / when global legalization will strike – so they’re planting weed wherever the green light shines.

-       Ameri-Canna:  Aphria needs to expand outside of Canada.  Tilray's U.S. biz gives it nice exposure to the American market as more states are legalizing.

-       Euro-Canna:  As European countries legalize medical marijuana, Tilray and Aphria can combine their Euro-production facilities to scale and distribute faster.

 

Sippin’ away on THC:  Tilray and Aphria are also combining their beverage businesses.  Aphria acquired SweetWater Brewing Company for cannabis-infused beers like "420 Strain IPA".  Tilray partnered with AB InBev (Bud-wiser) for some CBD and THC drinks which have yet to make it very far.  These "beyond the leaf" products are destined to be the products that allow weed to go mainstream.  Their goal is to grow the SweetWater Brewing Company portfolio, and expand Manitoba Harvest (a purveyor of hemp and CBD products / edibles, etc.)

 

Honestly, this is freshman year...   nobody’s done much, but the class is getting a lot of attention.  Even after Tilray’s and Aphria’s stocks jumped on the news, their combined market value is just under $4B.  [Boston Beer (maker of Sam Adams) is worth over $10B.]  Together, Aphria and Tilray do less than $700m in sales / yr. – which is less than Juul’s 2018 sales.  Canna companies must consolidate while they wait for legalization.

 

 

Next Week:  Buybacks for Banks are Back.

 


The FED (in a surprise move) released the 2nd round of bank stress test results – directly following the market’s close on Friday.  

-       Following the announcement, the XLF immediately ripped higher by +4% - signaling an upcoming rally inside of the financials on Monday.  That rally will drive a tremendous amount of the trade for the upcoming holiday week. 

-       JPM jumped post-announcement, and will be a main beneficiary of the results.  

-       In terms of bank buybacks, during Q1 of 2021, both dividends and share repurchases will be limited to an amount based upon income over the past year.

-       What was disconcerting was that on a hum-drum day, the financials (before the announcement) were trading 3 TIMES the normal volume and were trending 6 TIMES as many Call options to Put options.  Ya think someone leaked the news?  

-       The only question for Monday is whether capital will rotate out of tech into the financials.  The ‘Monsters of Tech’ haven’t done anything since September, and as a trader – YES, I would expect a rotation ‘out of tech’ and into the financials.

 

Will the rotation into Financials on Monday morning, be enough to keep a sustainable bid under the S&Ps going forward?

-       The S&Ps have rallied since September, solely on the back of the financials – because tech has done nothing.  

-       No, I don’t think the financials can carry this market higher by themselves.

 

Tesla’s wild SP500 inclusion ride.

-       On Monday morning, Tesla (TSLA) will be included in the S&P 500.  

-       As we know, the reason for Tesla’s rise has been due to the buying of call options, and almost 1.6m TSLA Calls were purchased on Friday alone.

-       2.5m options contracts were traded in TSLA on Friday * 100 shares / contract * $700 per share = $175B worth of ‘ONE STOCK’ was traded on just Friday.  That is the most ‘notional value’ currently being traded in any one stock.

-       With the amount of capital flowing thru TSLA and with it being included into the S&P 500 – it WILL be the leader of the entire S&P starting Monday. 

-       Never before has a company been added to the S&P – with such a high market cap – trading so much notional value every day – with 83% implied volatility.  

-       You need to look no further than the last 10 minutes of trading on Friday to see the power of Tesla == It gained $33.09 (5%) in 10 minutes. 

-       Diversification is contracting into 6 or 7 products that are driving order flow.  

-       Will Tesla’s inclusion into the S&P mark it’s top?

 

IPO Options Warning:

-       Do NOT trade DoorDash (DASH) and Airbnb (ABNB) options as: (a) they are trading with incredibly wide bid/offer spreads, and (b) they’re trading in nickel increments.  Wait for a better market maker.

 

VIX Opportunity in the coming weeks:

-       With only 3.5 days of trading in the coming week, you should see the volatility subside a little bit.  But the VVIX (the volatility of the volatility index) is still above 110 – so there’s plenty of action to be had. 

-       Look at selling a $20/15 Put spread (out in February) and use that credit to finance the purchase of a $35 / 60 Call spread in the same month.  

 

SPX Expected Move:

-       Last Week-- 85.99 (expected move)

-       Next Week-- 54.67 – due to the shortened trading week … but watch out for the large Monday BID under the market due to the FED’s stress test results.

-       I don’t believe that volumes will be down due to the holiday week – given the COVID / WFH environment has been with us for over 9 months now. 

 

 

Tips:

 



HODL’s:  (Hold On for Dear Life) / (All %’s = YTD)

-       CTIC ($3.53),

o   Sell Jan. $3 and $4 covered calls for income

-       DM ($16.07),

o   Sell Jan. $15 ITM covered calls for income

-       ETHE ($20.15 / in @ $13.44 = up 50% (in a week)), 

-       GBTC ($29.48 / in @ $9.41 = up 213%), 

-       HYLN ($17.92 / in @ $0.32 = 5371%).

o   Sell Jan. $16 or $17.50 ITM covered calls for income

-       IPOC ($12.08),

o   Sell Jan. $12.50 (soon to be ITM) covered calls for income

-       Pan American Silver (PAAS = $33.48 / in @ $13.07 = up 156%),

o   Sell Jan. $35 or $36 covered calls 

-       Watching:  AUY, EXK, HL, and NGD.

 

   Crypto:

-       Bitcoin (BTC = $23,100),

-       Ethereum (ETH = $650),

-       Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $310)

 

Thoughts:   Is it just me, or does the market seem a little too complacent?  Everything’s at all-time-highs despite: higher oil prices, relatively high interest rates, and stimulus talks dragging on.  The market is banking on the success of a COVID vaccine, whose relief will likely take months, and won’t be soon enough to save a lot of the closed businesses.  So, how much higher can the market possibly go?  The VIX has rallied a bit over the past couple of weeks after bottoming out in early December, but if the market does hiccup and sell off – the VIX should rise even more.  That’s why if you’re at all bearish on the market, then consider a bullish strategy in the VIX.  If you think that the VIX will stay off its lows, then shorting the $20 / 15 Put spread – and buying the $35 / 60 Call spread in the February expiration is a bullish strategy that has an 89% probability of making 50% of its max potential profit before expiring.

 

   Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

 

Please be safe out there!

 

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