RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, March 26, 2017

This Week in Barrons - 3-26-2017

This Week in Barrons – 3-26-2017:
                                                           

“What we’ve got here is… a Failure to Communicate” …  Warden – Cool Hand Luke

   The parallels between the film ‘Cool Hand Luke’ and the drama that played out between President Trump and his Republican partners in the U.S. House of Representatives last week was uncanny.  For those of you who don’t know the movie, ‘Cool Hand Luke’ was an anti-establishment film which was shot during the Vietnam War era, in which Paul Newman’s character (Luke) endures physical punishment, psychological cruelty, and complete hopelessness.  Luke refuses to observe the established pecking order among prisoners, and quickly runs afoul of the prison leadership.  Luke is constantly outmatched by a much larger opponent, but his tenacity and perseverance earn him the respect of the prisoners and eventually the guards.  Luke continues to confront ‘the Man’, and his sense of humor and independence prove to be both infectious and inspiring to the other prisoners.  Luke’s struggle for supremacy peaks when he leads a work crew in a seemingly impossible but successful effort to complete a road-paving project in less than one day.  In a fit of anger, the Warden has Luke fitted with leg-irons and delivers a warning speech to the other inmates, explaining: “What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate.  Some men you just can’t reach.  I don’t like it any more than you.”
   I sat patiently on Friday as President Trump (the Warden) cancelled his healthcare bill in the 11th hour.  He played his ‘game of chicken’ with the ‘Lukes’ of the Republican party – and he lost.  Trump then proceeded to point fingers and cast blame at everyone except himself – which tells me that we will see this behavior again.  Someone needs to inform President Trump, there are 3 C’s in any management style: consideration, co-operation, and communication.  At last count, he’s definitely missing 2 out of 3 – and the remaining one is a bit suspect.
   As the movie progresses, Luke continues to go outside the bounds of the Warden’s acceptable behavior, and more prisoners begin to live vicariously through Luke.  At the end of the movie, Luke dies – but the Warden is also replaced.  So Donald, you’re on the road to success – if you’re trying to single-handedly rejuvenate the Democratic party and get yourself impeached along the way.  But understand your failure is not only due to substance, but also due to your lack of consideration, co-operation, and communication.
   Let’s discuss for a minute the elephant in the room – health insurance.  Admittedly, I know enough about insurance to be dangerous.  I have automobile insurance.  In case of an ‘unforeseen’ event (accident), the insurance kicks in and pays for the issue.  But here’s the catch.  If I don’t maintain the car, and the oil levels get too low and I blow-up the engine – my insurance does nothing.  My insurance is there to cover unexpected events such as accidents – it is NOT there to cover any maintenance items such as: tires, gasoline, water pumps, etc.  It is insurance, and it's at a very reasonably priced.
   And then there is ‘health insurance’ which really isn’t insurance but more like an ‘extended service contract’ that I would purchase on my car to extend the manufacturer’s bumper to bumper warranty.  I differentiate insurance from an extended warranty.  Webster’s online dictionary defines insurance as: “An agreement in which a person makes regular payments to a company, and the company promises to pay money if the person is injured or dies, or to pay money equal to the value of something (such as a house or car) if it is damaged, lost, or stolen.”  So, it’s obvious to me that on the healthcare side of things – we’re potentially defining ‘insurance’ the wrong way.  I also tend to think that we seem to want ‘society’ to pay for our health maintenance rather than just our injuries.  It seems to me that the reason that health insurance is so expensive is because we're using it for maintenance – instead of its initial job of just getting you through an unexpected event like a broken leg or a surgery.
   To use a child analogy, I have 2 children and as babies they both needed a ton of check-ups and shots.  Every time my wife and I would take them to the pediatrician’s office, we would hand them our insurance card, and the insurance company would pay most if not all the costs.  Looking back I ask myself, why is insurance paying for those ‘maintenance’ items – rather than focusing on making a better solution for the event / emergency (ER) conditions?  Currently healthcare is being thought about as a complete ‘bumper to bumper’ forever warranty surrounding anything that can happen in your life.  What if we separated health insurance into 2 buckets: events and extended warranty?  Would we encourage more choice, lower costs, and improved quality of life?  After all, the latest healthcare bill lacked both style and substance because it tried to do too much.  Wouldn’t it be a novel idea to ‘repeal and replace’ with something that made a lot more common sense?


The Markets:


3C’s = Consideration, Co-operation and Communication

Factually this week:
-       Sears questioned how long they can continue to be a “going concern".
-       Payless Shoes just filed for bankruptcy.
-       Corporations that have much LOWER revenues today than 5 years ago include: Caterpillar with 42% less revenue today than in 2012, Exxon with 46% less, Chevron with 52% less, IBM is down 23.5%, Merck is down 16%, GE is off 17.4%, and Proctor & Gamble is down 22% from 5 years ago – along with selling-off 43 of its brand divisions.
-       Global investor allocation to stocks hit a two-year high of 48%.
-       34% of fund managers (highest since 2000) think equities are overvalued.
-       44% of fund managers think emerging markets are undervalued.
-       The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will have to rise above 3.5% before a bear market in stocks ensues. 
-       37.7% of adult-aged U.S. individuals are not working.
-       Used car prices have fallen the most and the fastest since the ‘08 crash, 
-       JP Morgan did not have a single losing trading day in 2013, 2014 and 2016, but did lose money on 2 days in 2015.
-       World stocks are their most expensive in 17 years.
-       The combined wealth of the world’s billionaires ($7.4 Trillion) FELL for the first-time last year (3.7%) since 2008. 
-       659 companies cut or eliminated their dividends last year.
-       Since January, insider sellers out-numbered insider buyers by 7 to 1.
-       The G-20 meeting ended with the U.S. refusing to compromise on the phrase “Resist all forms of protectionism”. 
-       Ford missed earnings, and warned that their annual estimates may come in 50% LESS than anticipated.
-       Ally Bank told us that auto loan delinquencies are spiking higher, and
-       Yet another interest rate ‘rigging’ investigation drew to a close with 3 major banks (HSBC, JP Morgan, and Crédit Agricole) being fined over $500m for collusion.  Combine this some new reserve requirement, and look for the financials to potentially be under pressure this week.

   Watch for the Trump administration to pursue a weak dollar policy in response to Germany’s threats of legal retaliation to our proposed BAT (Border Adjustment Tax).  If the we can’t improve our excessive trade imbalance through a tax or tariff program, then look for the U.S. Dollar to be the mechanism that The Donald utilizes to get the world’s attention.  As Ford’s CEO said last month: “Currency manipulation is the mother of all trade barriers.”  A weak U.S. Dollar could suddenly throw manufacturing and many other exchange items in our favor – and it would be easier to implement rather than getting a BAT through congress. 
   With Friday’s healthcare bill failure, there is now doubt shed upon President Trump’s ability to raise the debt ceiling, reform the tax code, nix regulations, and put thru an infrastructure package.  I think the reality of all of those issues has finally risen to the surface.  Even the perma-bull Tom Lee has stated that the market moved higher in anticipation of all that happening and if it looks like it won't happen "stocks will NOT reward you from here”. 
   We are in such uncharted water that we might as well be on another planet.  We have hit our debt ceiling and Democrat Chuck Schumer is already saying that if Trump doesn't back down from defunding Planned Parenthood – he’s going to rally his Democratic warriors to block any debt increase.  We have enough money via taxes to last us into July, but by late July various Government departments are going to have to close if the debt ceiling is not raised.
   Then of course we have North Korea.  Various military people I know have told me that they expect us to attack North Korea and we will take out their military and their leadership.  They believe that Sec. Tillerson's statement that the time for diplomacy is over and 15 years of talks have failed – is a prelude to "We're going in".
   That all adds up to a large wall of worry that the market has to climb:  Obamacare, debt ceiling, tax reform, decreased regulations, infrastructure spending, North Korea, and soggy economic ‘hard data’.  Add to that the fact that we remain below the Trump highs of 20,750 on the DOW and 2,350 on the S&P – and that makes this a pretty tense time in market-land.  Please, proceed with caution.


Tips:
   This past week the SPX (the proxy for the S&P) exceeded its expected move for the first time since December.  When the healthcare bill was pulled, market volatility increased in anticipation of this coming Friday’s GDP number.
-       The expected move for the SPX this coming week is $36.  It’s currently sitting at $2,344.  Subtracting $36 from this takes us to about $2,300.  If we break below $2,300 this week – “it’s all over but the crying”. 
-       Watch the bonds (/ZB and TLT), if they continue their upward momentum, “duck and cover” because that will mean stocks will be moving lower.
-       With the Nasdaq sitting virtually unscathed in this market, the shorting opportunity is in the QQQ’s this week.



A potential recipe for investing to the downside:
-       I make sure the stock has closed under its 21-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for 2 days in a row.
-       I also make sure that the stock is in a ‘squeeze’.  The ‘squeeze’ is an explosion of energy that happens when a stock’s Bollinger Bands move back thru their Keltner Channels.
-       A stock will also move higher when there is co-operation from their sector and from the corresponding index.  [i.e. A squeeze on a stock + a squeeze on the co-operating sector + a squeeze on the co-operating index is forecasting a very powerful move].
-       It’s also true that a squeeze on a stock + a squeeze on the sector move the stock substantially.
-       Therefore, the goal is to find sectors and stocks (and potentially indexes) that are all in ‘squeezes’ – such as the SPY (S&P index), the XLP (consumer products sector), and PG (Proctor & Gamble).
-       To produce this list, write a scan that tells you when a sector is under a squeeze, and use the chart above (that lists the top 5 holdings in each sector) to find the corresponding stock(s) that are also under a similar ‘squeeze’.

Secondly, when has a stock finished its move?
-       Due to weekly institutional buying, stocks move in 1 standard deviation increments 70% of the time.
-       Virtually ALL stocks will stop moving after hitting the following week’s standard deviation.  So, setting an automatic sell after next week’s standard deviation move would be an excellent strategy.

For example:
-       I found Proctor & Gamble (PG) was in a squeeze that was firing short,
-       I then immediately looked at XLP (the corresponding sector) – and found that it was also in a squeeze that was firing short.
-       Then I immediately checked the SPY (the corresponding index) – and found that it was in a squeeze that was firing short.
-       Therefore, I think you can invest safely on the short side of PG, XLP and SPY.
-       I normally buy the Delta 70 put option, and sell a corresponding put credit spread to pay for the trade.

Notice below, the SPY index (on the top graph) is caught in a downward channel and has had 2 closes below its 21-day moving average (two red candles below the white line).  I’ve included the lower graph of the Japanese Yen moving higher because it is more co-operating evidence – supporting a SPY move to the downside.



For next week watch:
-       The financial sector (XLF) needs to bounce to $24, otherwise the entire SPY could move lower with it.  Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners writes: “Group stink has never been more conspicuous than in the financial sector.”  He likes: Lincoln Financial (LNC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), Citibank © and JP Morgan (JPM) – all to the downside.
-       If the transportation sector (IYT) goes lower – so will FDX, CSX and NSC.
-       If the biotech sector (IBB) moves lower – so will CELG, BMY and AGN.


To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting:

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing:

Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson


Sunday, March 19, 2017

This Week in Barrons - 3-19-2017

This Week in Barrons – 3-19-2017:

























“You can take this job and shove it.”… Johnny Paycheck (1992)

Thoughts:
   Sometimes I wish I was just clueless and happy.  I remember:
-       When we didn’t like our own economic growth (GDP) numbers – so we changed the way we calculated GDP. 
-       When the banks were about to be declared insolvent – so we allowed them to change the way that they valued their assets.
-       When the Chinese and Russians were NOT stockpiling gold, and the Saudis are selling their oil for dollars instead of gold.
-       And when the unemployment calculations were done the ‘old fashioned way’ – that included the 92m who had left the workforce.
   Last week we were told that the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.7%.  We also learned that December of 2016 held the highest rate in 10 years for people quitting their jobs.  So I asked myself: “Where are all of these jobs coming from?”  The following chart shows job applicants vs job openings for various industrial sectors.  Inside the professional, finance, insurance and healthcare services sectors – there are 500k more openings than applicants.  Every other sector is showing roughly 3m more applicants than job openings.  It would naturally follow suit that wages in the sectors needing applicants would out-strip wages in the other sectors.  Bottom line, yes there are a lot more applicants than openings, but job availability is much more sector specific than ever before.




   Secondly, in order for jobs to increase – the economy needs to grow.  The economy grew at a lackluster 1.6% pace in 2016.  The Atlanta FED just halved their estimate for U.S. Q1 2017 GDP growth downward to 0.9%.  The graph below shows the U.S. just now hitting its lowest 10-year average annual GDP growth rate (1.3%) in history.



   As SF and I agree, it’s the growth rate that we worry about.  0.9% GDP growth does not allow us pay down the debt, address our failing Social Security and pension issues, revise Medicare and Medicaid, and invest in the infrastructure projects that our nation needs.  Maybe we have reached a point of employment maturity – where those who have been educated and desire to work, are doing so.  And those that are not employed are victims of their own inadequate skill sets – colliding with advanced technologies.
   Unfortunately, President Trump’s new budget only exacerbates the sector / skill set jobs issue.  While he is asking for $50B additional for defense and security, he is proposing deep cuts or outright elimination of programs at the major federal agencies including Agriculture, Housing and Urban Development and Treasury.  What follows is a list of agencies whose funding Trump is asking Congress to eliminate, as well as selected programs he wants to cut at larger agencies.  



   I worry that Trump’s budget is not only going in the wrong direction, but fails to consider human resource availability.  For example: Trump proposes the elimination of the “Meals-On-Wheels” program which delivers food to senior citizens.  The delivery of food to one senior citizen for an entire YEAR is roughly equivalent to that same senior staying in a hospital for one DAY.  The elimination of that program will (according to the Kaiser Foundation) cause increases in hospitals stays and institutional care of as much as $60,000 annually per individual.  And just think about what will happen to the U.S. economy when older, low-income pensioners suddenly (as a result of Trump’s new healthcare plan) have 5% or 10% less to spend on necessities?  Currently, the average household income of someone older than 75 is $34,097, and their corresponding average expenses total $34,382.  If their pension benefits were to be cut or their health costs increased, their spending would fall, and due to the sheer number Americans over 75 – their decreased spending on food, energy and other staples would force a recession.  Lastly, an increase in defense spending of that magnitude will openly show the world that the U.S. does NOT have enough engineers, technologists, scientists, and mathematicians to fulfill its own needs. 


The Market:
   Sir John Templeton once said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."  I think we’re in the euphoria stage right now because: (a) bullish sentiment is at its highest level in 30 years, (b) consumer confidence is at a 16-year high, and (c) we have gone 107 straight days (a 22-year record) without a 1% decline in the S&P 500.
   And just this week Janet Yellen decided to raise interest rates 0.25% for the 3rd time in the past 11 years.  The rate hike came at the same time that the Atlanta FED reduced their 1st Quarter GDP estimate to 0.9%, and GM decided to layoff 1,000 workers from its SUV plant in Michigan.  In its policy statement the FED pointed to un-spectacular and only small positive changes in our economic conditions.  They also remarked that lifting rates from near-zero would provide them more cushion should any major shocks occur.  In part, the FED is normalizing monetary policy ahead of any fiscal stimulus measures that President Trump may try to implement.  And yes, since the election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed over 14%, the S&P has risen over 10%, and the Nasdaq has added more than 13%.


Tips:






































    If successful investing is about buying low and selling high, the probabilities tell us that we should certainly be a bit cautious here.  The top graph above shows us that 2016 saw the most hedge fund closures and the fewest hedge fund launches since 2008.  In 2016, over 1m borrowers defaulted on their student loans.  Even Bill Ackman’s hedge fund took a $3B loss last week when he liquidated his position in Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
   The DOW over the past 12 sessions has only put in one organic up-day that did not come as a result of a manufactured, over-night ‘gap-open’.  Now the age-old adage is true: “Never short a dull market.”  Just when you figure the market is ready to roll over, it has a habit of waking up and moving higher.  The bottom chart above shows the movement in the DOW over the past 6 months.  The areas within the red boxes show sideways and chop followed by sharp moves higher in each case.  I think that this period of sideways and chop will extend for a few more weeks before the next move higher.  But this is happening NOT due to growth or economic reports, but rather because of all of the leverage and lack of volume within the stock market.  The SKEW (a volatility indicator) set an all-time-high reading last week.  So even though the market itself isn’t moving – investors THINK that the market is going to move dramatically to the downside. 
   Bonds are also showing a rare amount of volatility.  After the passing of the Dodd-Frank legislation, banks were restricted from purchasing equity positions but not as much from purchasing bond positions.  Therefore, trading volume has increased in bonds since 2008, leaving equity volumes quite small and virtually unsupportable in the case of a downturn.  Which much of the big-name equity movement being caused by stock buybacks, and if the FOMC raises rates 3 more 4 times this year – stock buybacks will go by the wayside along with the market’s ability to move itself higher.

Having said all of that, for next week I’m looking at:
-       PayPal (PYPL) – With the NASDAQ at all-time highs, PayPal (with the wind at its back) should do the same – pushing from 43 into about 45.
-       NetEase (NTES) – Using the same rationale as above, NTES (sitting at $292) should be able to push back into $309.
-       NetFlix (NFLX) – Using its earnings release and the $150 line as a magnet, buying a butterfly 2 weeks out should be a good strategy.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting:

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing:

Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson