RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, February 23, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 2-23-2014


This Week in Barrons – 2-23-2014

“Somethin’s coming – Somethin’…” (Pt 2) … West Side Story

Last week I laid out the groundwork for what I believe is the machinery that will usher in a ‘global currency reset’.  If I'm right, this will be the most significant economic policy change since the end of WWII.  Let’s discuss the proper way to navigate such troubled waters.

First off, I think we need a guidepost.  We need to be able to measure the time line of these events as they take place.  I have decided to use the Fed's actions as the milestone for when the implementation of such a reset is coming.  Starting with Greenspan, and then Bernanke – any time the economy was starting to soften, the Fed would rush to the rescue by cutting rates and printing money.  The economy was never allowed to correct the excesses of the boom that preceded the slowdown.  Over and over it went, as they would simply inject stimulus into an overly tired body. 

Often it worked.  Economic activity perked up on the heels of the lower rates and the extra dollars.  The economy would then go on another ‘up’ cycle until that injection wore off, and elements showed signs of weakening.  Then (like clock work) the Fed would come rushing to the rescue (again) with lower rates and more money – Rinse and Repeat.

However, something is happening right now that flies in the face of that.  The Fed has started to remove the stimulus we call QE, despite a weakening overall economy.  This is a significant turn of events.  The Fed knows how the overall economy is actually performing, and instead of increasing the amount of money they're doling out, they're reducing it.  Therefore, for the first time in over 20 years, a sagging economy is being met by less Fed activity, rather than by more monetary stimulus.

My original thought was that the Fed would talk a big game about ending QE, but would not actually do it.  Then they did the first ‘taper’.  I thought that this could have been just a display of ‘moxie’ to the rest of the world.  And in the face of weakening economic news, they did the 2nd taper.  Now we're looking at March and asking: Will they again reduce the amount of QE?  Thus far the Fed has been comfortable blaming outside influences such as the weather for the bulk of the lousy economic numbers.
-       On Tuesday homebuilder sentiment had its single biggest fall in the history of the report.
-       The Empire State Fed report had its largest drop in economic activity in 18 months.
-       Caterpillar told us that global sales for the equipment fell for the 14th straight month.
-       The Philly Fed report of economic activity fell from a reading of 9.4 to a reading of ‘Negative’ 6.3.
-       And housing sales fell like a rock – again. 

Everyone is blaming the weather, and is some of this weather related?  Absolutely.  Ice storms in Atlanta, never ending snow falls in the northeast, and record-breaking cold temperatures are business inhibitors.  When you cancel 4,000 flights, and place cities on emergency alert, some level of economic activity will come to a halt.  When the Fed tapers in March, it will be completely consistent with its previous actions.  But what happens when the weather breaks?

If we get into the summer (mid-July) and the Fed has not stopped the taper, then we must assume that their game plan has changed, and they are willing to let the economy roll over.  If we see that, I would have to believe that we are in the first steps of ushering in this global reset, and the timeline then becomes fairly defined.  By reducing the taper $10 Billion at each Fed meeting, the Fed would reduce the stimulus to zero by December 2014.  Our economy (at that point) would at best last another year without stimulus before entering a fairly hefty recession.  On the other hand, if the Fed (at minimum) stops the taper this summer, it would mean that they are not ready for the global reset and will keep the economy limping along for longer.  That would also mean more all time highs to be found in stocks.

Job #1 then is to try and gauge when a global reset could happen.  Job #2 is what to do when/if our suspicions are confirmed.  This is where gold and silver start to play.  Gold backed currencies have their own set of problems.  But
since the Central Bankers (who control most of the world’s gold) believe in a gold backed currency, they will certainly give gold a very high weighting in the new global currency.  And, considering how vocal the Chinese are about (a) being tired of the U.S. devaluing the dollar, and (b) wanting themselves to be a bigger part of the world stage, it’s not a coincidence that they are accumulating gold at a very rapid rate.

Very few individuals in the U.S. own gold.  The raids on the gold paper futures have driven prices down, and have sent many of the ‘gold holders’ to sell and invest elsewhere.  This is why I believe that gold (and to a smaller extent silver) are the single best investments that will help you through a potential reset.  The problem for many is simply the $1,325 price per ounce of gold.  This sends many to go with silver and it’s $22 per ounce price tag.  Will silver do well?  Yes, I’ve said for years that silver could easily go to $70 per ounce.  But it will still be gold that Central Bankers choose to back their currency.

One question often asked is: What should I buy - coins, bullion, or rounds?  With silver you should own one ounce, silver ‘eagle’ coins.  They are the single most recognized coin you can own.  In gold, it’s a slightly different story.  With gold costing $1,325 per ounce, a gold ‘coin’ is really worth too much to be practical.  Therefore, I suggest buying 1/10th ounce gold coins.  Holding silver eagles and some small weight gold coins are good survival tactics.  For holdings beyond that which you would use for emergency money, then you should consider one ounce gold coins, and bulk silver.  I believe having some of both.


The Market...

So far – so good.  I’ve been thinking that the markets would run-up to their all-time highs, but would come up short and finally fade out.  Currently the markets have run-up to their highs, have been trading sideways, and have not been able (as of yet) to break through.  That’s certainly not through lack of effort.  This week’s economic news was horrendous, but the markets did not roll over and drop.  We had a flat Tuesday, dropped hard on Wednesday, came all the way back on Thursday, and faded slightly on Friday.  So, the desire to continue pushing higher is certainly still there.

We let a fair number of our positions get called out under a ‘covered call’ scenario and are currently sitting mainly in cash.  If this market does break to the upside and make new highs, I’ll be glad to jump back in.  But I’d rather be light as I am anticipating a pullback from our run-up.  Now, if the Fed were to suddenly halt
their tapering (or reverse it), we would certainly be setting new highs again.  But with the taper still ‘on’ and the economy slowing, I think that it will be difficult for the banks to manufacture a sustainable break to new highs.

Now, there may be one 'last push" left in the markets (where they try and suck in the last of the hold outs).   But I think J. Q. Public realizes that the markets are at all time highs only due to Trillions of Fed dollars, and that the markets simply follow the money.

If I'm right and this begins to fade here, the drop could be substantial, and I'd want to be playing on the short side.  If I’m wrong, I would need to see a few consecutive days of market closes, above the old all time highs.  The S&P closed at 1,836 on Friday – only 14 points away from it’s all time high of 1,850.  But the DOW closed at 16,103 and it’s all-time high is 16,580.  While we may be able to get above 1,850 on the S&P for a bit of a show – gaining another 400+ DOW points in a lousy economy and a tapering Fed is going to be difficult.

I’m cautious until either the market breaks out or breaks down.


Tips:

I always get questions:
-       Where to purchase gold and/or silver?
-       Where to get a good price?
-       Who do you trust, and will the transaction go smoothly?

Over the years I’ve done business with many, and the firm I recommend is run by a father and son team out of Colorado called: http://www.cornerstonebullion.com.

This week I sold out of NUGT and SLW for 70 and 35% gains respectively.  As much as I love the metals – the miners (including NUGT and SLW) are more affected by the general market than they are the price of gold.  Therefore, with the ‘pause’ in the general market I grabbed the opportunity to take some profits.

I still like stocks such as: BIIB, NFLX, TSLA, QIHU and some commodities – that seem to be able to buck the trend and go higher – when the S&P is either flat or lower.

Some other stocks that I’m interested in at the moment are: MNKD – with its move above $6 on Friday, and ARIA – with its peak above $9 on Friday.  Both of these are showing very ‘interesting’ options action – and certainly worth a second look this week.

Lastly – please be aware of the naturally inverse relationship between the Japanese Yen and the S&P.  If the Japanese Yen moves lower (FXY) the S&P index will move higher – and vice versa.  For many weeks now, this relationship has been broken – yet another reason why I believe something very different is being played out in the back rooms around the economic globe.

My current short-term holds are:
-       QIHU – in @ $91.20 - (currently $105.51)
-       ARIA – in @ $8.43 – (currently $8.87)
-       USO (Oil) – in @ $34.51 - (currently $36.71)
-       FXY (Japanese currency) – PUTS in @ at $96.47 - (currently $95.23 – looking for it to go lower)
-       SIL (Silver) – in at 24.51 - (currently 14.70) – no stop,
-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 127.45) – no stop ($1,326 per physical ounce), AND
-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 21.00) – no stop ($21.87 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>


Sunday, February 16, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 2-16-2014


This Week in Barrons – 2-16-2014

“Somethin’s coming – Somethin’…” … West Side Story

This week something happened that was quite remarkable.  Despite Janet Yellen telling Congress that the Fed was going to continue its tapering, the market gave her a big pass because she said: "If the data were to turn unfavorable, then of course there would be reason to pause the taper.”

Okay, so what's that mean?  When the Fed first tapered, did the data really suggest a good strong recovery?  NO.
-       Mortgage applications were crashing,
-       Housing sales were falling like a rock,
-       An unimaginable amount of people were opting out of the job market,
-       And Obama-care was causing countless issues.

Then in January, when the Fed tapered again – did the data suggest a good strong recovery?  NO.
-       Jobs data was still horrible,
-       The market was still falling,
-       Retail sales showed a decrease of 0.4%,
-       Companies were reporting sketchy (at best) earnings,
-       And many economists were warning of slowing GDP growth,
-       Barclays announced that they were cutting 12,000 workers,
-       And U.S. Initial Jobless claims increased yet again.

Why is the Fed tapering when the economy is just barely limping along?  
Why is the Fed saying they will need to see more declining data to end tapering, when we've had gobs of this kind of data and they're explaining it away with ‘the weather’?

My only answer to these questions is either: a ‘global reset’ is coming, or the Fed will soon announce yet another program that will allow it to push more money into the economy.  Let’s explore the first one, because it’s the one that makes the most sense. 

The IMF World bank knows that there's too much debt in too many countries for it to ever be repaid.  Lately, global currency fluctuations have been so extreme and so rapid; it is often impossible to carry on continuous trade.  No matter where I look, the evidence suggests that something must be done.  I think there is a plan afoot to replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.  But more than that, plans are being made for a complete rebalancing of every country’s debts versus their ‘worth’ in natural resources, precious metals (gold and silver), output per capita, productivity, demographics, etc.  The following quotes are from ‘China Daily’:
-       “The World Bank's former chief economist wants to replace the US dollar with a single global super-currency, saying it will create a more stable global financial system.”
-       And Justin Yifu Lin told Bruegel (a Brussels-based, policy research think tank): "The dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises,"

So the first thing to consider is that China is becoming very vocal about wanting to rid the world of U.S. supremacy.  This is no idle threat as China is scheduled to outpace the U.S. economically in just a few short years.  At that point, we will all need to respect the tremendous amount of gold and silver that China and other Asian nations have amassed.

In the not so distant future, there could be an announcement of a global currency reset where:
-       Debts will be discharged and equated to different values.
-       Countries will be valued and ranked based on real tangible assets.  The countries that are the richest (in real, tangible elements – not ‘fiat’ money) will carry more weight.  This ‘weighting’ explains why China has been ridding itself of dollars and buying up tangibles such as: gold, silver, oil, land, farms, buildings, and businesses.
-       SDR's (special drawing rights) will be constructed that will allow distribution of real assets between countries (in order to facilitate trade).
-       AND the U.S. dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency – the new SDR will.

This explains why the Fed started to taper in the first place, and answers why they continue to taper in light of all of the bad economic data.  If the wheels are in motion to launch this SDR – then there's no longer any reason to prop up a failed economy.  For the past 20 years, every time the economy has shown that it needed to contract and go through a healthy recession and regroup, the Fed has rushed to the rescue with tons of free money.  The single biggest example of this was during the 2008 meltdown.  When QE-1 ended and things got weak, the Fed came out with QE-2.  When QE-2 ended and things got weak, the Fed came in with ‘The Twist’.  When that expired, the Fed rushed in with QE-3.  But now, after all this printing, and with the economy still soggy – they are REMOVING the stimulus.  If the Fed doesn’t halt the tapering by this summer, then something MAJOR has changed, or they are going to announce another program that allows them to jam more money into the system.  

If/When we have a global currency reset, here are a couple thoughts:
-       What happens to our money?  Is the ‘old’ $100K now worth $200K or $50K?
-       What happens to prices, and the value of land, homes, and businesses?
-       What about interest rates? (Will they be higher to service all the debt?)
-       What about gold?  Will these new SDR's be backed by gold?  Indirectly yes.  The countries with the most gold (and other redeemable assets) will have their currencies carry a higher weighting in the composition of the SDR.  For the past 3 years, Gold has been manipulated lower to facilitate China getting rid of dollars and amassing gold.  When everyone is satisfied that the Chinese have the proper amount of gold that gives their currency the proper weight in the global SDR, then gold will no longer be manipulated lower.

The good news is that I believe we exit this ‘global currency reset’ with something better than what we have now.  The Fed must be tired of creating booms and saving us from the busts.  The world is telling us to stop spending more than we take in.  And we’re all tired of the U.S. Government pushing for more control over our lives.  Maybe, a good, old-fashioned economic shake-up will get people to focus on what the hell happened to our country, and how to get it back.  And that would be a breath of fresh air.


The Market:

After January’s long market plunge, the market has roared back within ‘spitting distance’ of it’s old highs.  So do we break through and make new highs, or do the old highs act as resistance and we fall back?

A couple weeks ago we suggested that the market would put in a big bounce, come up shy of the new highs, and roll back over.  We're now in the range of ‘coming up shy’.

Will I be surprised if they punch through the old highs?  Yes I will.  It is one thing for the banksters to want to keep the market running, but it’s very different for them to pull it off.  
While I will be surprised to see them punch us through those old highs, one thing that I constantly remind myself is that we’re living through some very odd times.  Times where all of the old rules are out the window.  Last week, CNBC reported how great our economy was doing, and that all we needed was just one more piece of BAD DATA and the Fed would cancel the taper.  One day, good news will again be good news, we just don’t know whether that will be tomorrow, or after we gain another 10,000 DOW points.

Did I profit by this bounce?  Absolutely.  But (at this instant) I have a fair amount of cash and am ready for a market pullback.  I think that this week the market’s run stalls.  We then do a bit of sideways up and down chop, and finally fade lower.  The other way that this could play out is:  (a) they push us up over the old highs, (b) which drag in the remaining ‘doubters’, and (c) as soon as everyone's all in – the rug-pull comes.  Only time will tell.

So, I’m feeling that it’s time to play defense until it’s clear that we've either broken over the highs forcefully, or have entered a period of fading.  I don't want to get caught on the wrong side.


Tips:

I cashed out of Tesla (TSLA), FireEye (FEYE), Nividia (NVDA) and REGN last week – with gains of over 200%, 200%, 50% and 30% respectively.  It was a great week.  And in the entire portfolio, we’re up over 13% and it’s only mid-way thru February.

Currently, the S&P’s have broken over 1,826 and are sitting at 1,839. 
-       Gold and silver are UP.
-       The Stock markets are UP.
-       The Japanese Yen is UP.
-       Treasuries are UP.
-       Commodities are UP. 
-       In a nutshell – all of this is IMPOSSIBLE.  Treasures and the stock market should not both be UP together.  The Yen and the stock market should not both be UP together.  Gold and the stock market should not both be UP together. 

At this point, I still like the metals here as a hedge: Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), and especially the physical metals.  Gold has gone over it’s moving average, and has appeared to put in a bottom, with silver following nicely.  I’m also playing the miners through NUGT (a 3X ETF) and SLW – both doing nicely.  FEYE, SSYS, PRLB and DDD are coming back to life.  I still like: BIIB, INCY, NFLX, with my favorite set-up being QIHU.

My current short-term holds are:
-       QIHU – in @ $91.20 - (currently $99.25)
-       NUGT – in @ $35.25 – (currently $50.29)
-       SLW – in @ $20.25 – (currently $25.38)
-       USO – in @ $34.51 - (currently $35.91)
-       FXY – in @ at $96.47 - (currently $95.93)
-       SIL – in at 24.51 - (currently 14.96) – no stop,
-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 127.31) – no stop ($1,319 per physical ounce), AND
-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 20.73) – no stop ($21.50 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

I'd like to recommend a website - http://www.simpleroptions.com    It's an excellent resource and 'honestly' - I've been following them for over 6 months and they're more right than they are wrong with their predictions, and that's a rarity in this climate.  Please check them out on my recommendation.

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>