RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, August 18, 2024

This Week in Barrons: August 18, 2024

The problem with the lottery is…  people actually believe that it’s an investment vehicle.  In a similar vein, a survey showed that ~25% of the population believe that they could qualify for the Olympics if they trained for the next 4 years.  Now, that is absurd.  But saying: “I could do that,” is easier when you’re sure that you can’t.  Even if we had the talent, the resources, and the time – the odds against us are so slim that it essentially becomes a lottery ticket.  And like any lottery ticket buyer (versus an investor), the world leaves us ‘off-the-hook’ for not winning.  Someone will Win Gold, and someone will Win-the-Lottery – but it probably won’t be any of us.

It doesn’t matter if it doesn’t ship…  makes mediocrity and perfection virtually the same thing.  They are both places to hide.  Per Seth G: when we ship average work, it’s not our fault.  We’re simply doing what the manual says, and if you don’t like it – blame the culture and the system.  And when we hold back on shipping because it isn’t perfect, we’re also hiding.  After all, who would sign off on something if you could still find things that could be improved?  Unfortunately, if it doesn’t ship – it doesn’t count.  You need to ship when it’s good enough, and you define good enough in advance.  You need to ship – just don’t ship junk.


The Market: 


The last time we saw bearishness spike like this…  we had the greatest 52-week period in the history of the US stock market.  So, for the past 2 weeks, with the spike in volatility and some selling pressure in equities, I've been looking for those companies whose relative strength continues to outperform (see above chart).  I want to buy into them because they are likely to continue to outperform in the back half of the year.


Greg Brockman, OpenAI's president…  and one of 11 cofounders of the artificial intelligence firm, is taking an extended leave of absence.  Another cofounder and key leader, John Schulman, has decamped to Anthropic, a fierce rival founded by ex-OpenAl researchers.  Peter Deng, a product leader who joined the company last year after leading products at Meta Platforms, Uber and Airtable, has also left OpenAI.  Fair Warning: You have an entire company at the forefront of AI – being run by their B-Team.


[ Learn about Betterment.com here… ]


InfoBits:

  • Research out of Harvard is proving that…  an optimistic outlook slows age-related physical declines in women.
  • “Diversification is only required when investors do not know what they are doing.” … Charlie Munger.
  • It’s less than 6 months until Super Bowl kickoff…  and FOX has sold virtually its entire commercial inventory for the broadcast for $7m / 30 second spot.  
  • Tally is shutting its doors…  after raising $172m in funding.  It was last valued at ~$1B with 183 employees.  [“Life comes at you fast.”  … Ferris Bueller]
  • CEO poaching season is underway  as Starbucks grabbed Chipotle’s CEO as their new head, and Victoria’s Secret nabbed the Savage X Fenty CEO as its new leader.
  • Google unveils Pixel 9 with Gemini AI integration…  offering in-depth voice chats with Gemini, and a hands-free experience that allows Gemini to run in the background.
  • The 2024 Paris Olympics…  brought in over 30m viewers a day across NBC platforms – an 82% increase from the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.
  • It’s no longer a matter of IF…  but by how much.  The market is predicting a 63% chance of a Sept rate cut of 25bps, and a 37% chance of a 50bps cut.
  • “Date the rate - Marry the home” … As mortgage rates drop in anticipation of a FED rate cut, current homeowners are using the opportunity to refinance their mortgages at the fastest pace since 2022.
  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold…  BofA, Chevron, in addition to already announced Apple.
  • Walmart’s Sam’s Club attracted record-high Q2 memberships  with half of the new sign-ups coming from Gen Z’ers and millennials.
  • Walmart’s grocery prices are ~25% lower…  than traditional supermarkets, giving it an edge as consumers prioritize value.
  • U.S. housing starts were down 16% YoY…  a 4-year low,  June’s numbers were revised lower, and residential permits dipped 4% MoM.

Crypto-Bytes:

  • Bitcoin Miners are doubling down…  as now is the time to spend $’s to upgrade equipment efficiency.  Some miners are eyeing mergers, and some are pivoting to become AI datacenters as a path to profitability.
  • Goldman Sachs now holds $418m in Bitcoin ETF shares …  And as the third-largest holder of BlackRock’s fund, they’re signaling strong institutional interest in Bitcoin.
  • Binance re-enters India after settling a $2.25m penalty.
  • Marathon Digital (MARA) closed a $300m offering of convertible debt…  and immediately purchased ~4,144 bitcoin with the proceeds. [Sounds like MicroStrategy Part 2.]
  • After Pump.fun made it free to launch Solana-based coins…  users created +1.7m new meme coins.  FYI: only 41 have maintained any kind of value.
  • The State of Wisconsin bought 447,651 more shares of IBIT…  bringing their total to nearly 3m shares. 
  • Sen. Chuck Schumer is on a mission…  to push crypto legislation through Congress before the year wraps up, calling for a balanced approach that fosters innovation while laying down some guardrails.
  • South Korea’s National Pension Service…  just spent $34m on MicroStrategy shares – basically doubling down on the Bitcoin proxy.
  • Uncle Sam might be fiddling with the Silk Road BTC stash…  and the idea of ~20k BTC getting dumped on the market has traders in a cold sweat. 
  • Chainlink (LINK) just hooked up with Base…  bringing their full suite of DeFi tools to ETH’s L2.  Think fast, low-latency market data, and secure random numbers – all ready to supercharge Base that jumped ~20% this month.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):


Monday:  Investors await a power packed week of key inflation data, starting with July Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Tuesday followed by consumer price (CPI) data on Wednesday 8/14.  These will provide strong cues about our FED's interest rate move in September.  Current FED predictions for September are torn between 25 and 50bps of easing with ~100 bps for the entire year.  Walmart is the world’s largest retailer, and is gaining ground in groceries - which make up 60% of its US sales.  It captured a record 37% of all US online grocery sales in Q2 – beating all supermarkets.


Thursday:  Early this morning, the futures were green but not crazy – now they’re just crazy.  WMT’s revenues and earnings were better than expected.  The initial jobless claims came in less than estimates.  Retail sales came in at +1% - beating expectations.  And import prices only increased +1.6% YoY.  These ‘Goldilocks’ numbers were ‘just right’ for the economy.  Along with the usual suspects, there are some interesting gold miner set-ups: NGD, EGO, AU, and AEM.  They are all at double or triple-top resistance levels, and if they can get through – they have room to run.  NGD over $2.46, EGO over $17.43, AU over $31.35, and AEM over $78.16 all look great.  If they break-thru, have them hold the breakout overnight before investing.  Remember, this is one of the most manipulated sectors of the entire market.


Friday:  The S&Ps turned positive for August as recession fears eased, and the SPX just put in its biggest 6-day rally since November 2022.  The S&Ps have risen 8.3% from the panic Aug 5 low.  The Nasdaq also posted a 6-day win streak as mega cap tech and semis extended their rally off August lows.  This is a super impressive 6-day run for U.S stocks as the SPY goes 6 for 6 = closing higher 6 days in a row, and gains more than 6% in the process.


Morgan’s Moments…  


Cash-Flow Tricks in growing a small to medium-sized business:  Marathon Digital (copying MicroStrategy) announced a private offering of $250m in convertible notes.  These are 7-year notes – convertible into cash or shares of MARA common stock.  The advantage of convertible notes over traditional debt financing is that MARA will be able to acquire a much lower interest rate due to the fact that the notes may be converted into equity.  Marathon plans to use these funds to “buy more bitcoin and for working capital, strategic acquisitions, expansion of existing assets, and repayment of debt and other outstanding obligations.”  The financing is much needed after MARA lost nearly $200m in Q2.


Next Week: The Dip, the Rip, and the Now? 


Bkgd:  We’re in the calm of Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride.  The S&Ps had their best week in almost a year, and are just 2% off of all-time highs.  But don’t raise the Mission Accomplished banner just yet.  The ‘Goldilocks’ scenario that everyone is buzzing about has: inflation, unemployment, and growth being ‘just right’.  We are seeing: strong retail sales, an in-line CPI, and a September rate cut.  Unfortunately, every economic report has the capability of sending Mr. Toad's Wild Ride flying around the next turn.  


Vol will NOT go quietly into this good night…  We started last week approximately 200 S&P points lower than where we ended.  We had an almost 2 Std. Deviation rally that brought us within 2% of all-time-highs.  What’s puzzling is that volatility (VVIX) is still hanging around the 110 level.  


VVIX, SKEW, Bonds, Dollar and /ES levels…  Last week we saw Bonds back off from their previous duck-n-cover trade, and even the dollar to fade (causing Gold to make all-time-highs).  Our markets are making over-sized moves (both higher and lower) – often due to limited liquidity.  Institutions are exhibiting extremely heavy hedging activity – for example over 1.2m VIX options were traded on Friday alone.  Tip #1: It wouldn’t surprise me if the S&Ps did a little back-filling next week to the 5500 level.


Goldilocks = retail + inflation + unemployment = ‘just right’…  It was just 2 weeks ago that traders were worried about this being a crash and our FED would have to do an emergency rate cut, but now all’s right with the world.  That’s a sign of real nervousness / volatility being in the air.  Everybody is expecting an interest rate cut in September, and the only question is whether it’s 25 or 50bps.  Tip #2: I’m looking for every economic release (from now until the election) to resemble Goldilocks (be ‘just right’).


$100B issues: SBUX, INTC, DIS & NKE…  We are seeing statistically impossible moves (8 to 10 Std. Deviation moves) in $100B+ corporations like: Starbucks, Intel, Disney, and Nike.  Tip #3: If you’re SELLING NAKED PREMIUM in this marketplace - dramatically reduce your size.   


Smashing expectations…  Currently, the equity marketplace is not doing a very good job of handicapping forward risk.  Be aware, we often go through periods of ‘spot-on’ handicapping; however, this is NOT one of those periods. 


SPX Expected Move (EM):

  • Last Week = $120 EM …
  • Next Week = $76 EM.  Are you kidding?  Last week’s EM was $120 and we moved $200, so this week’s EM is reduced by 40%.  “Without conflict, there is no interest.” … Fred Wilson

TIPS:  


At the risk of sounding overly bullish, things are looking up.  Market technicals have improved, and some of the ‘land-mines’ seem to be a little less scary.  Several risks remain, and we’re still late in the market-cycle.  But, with rate cuts on the way, technicals turning up, geo-politics calming down, and nothing else happening – maybe it’s as simple as: “Laissez les bons temps rouler” == [“Let the good times roll.”]


Tip #4: SHY = BONDS will go higher when our FED cuts rates.

Tip #5: GLD = Will go higher as rate cuts lead to a weaker dollar.

Tip #6: Various Gold & Silver Miners: NGD over $2.46, RUM over $6.45, EGO over $17.43, AU over $31.35, and AEM over $78.16.


HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

  • 13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.04%
  • Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,546/oz. & Silver @ $29/oz.
  • **Bitcoin (BTC = $59,500 / in at $4,310)
  • **Ethereum (ETH = 2,620 / in at $310)
  • HROW – Harrow Health = $38.9 / in at $12 = ~Doubled on Aug 8th earnings
  • **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($16.2 / in at $12) Weekly: BUY Puts for protection & SELL Covered-Calls for income
  • INDA – India ETF ($56.3 / in at $50)
  • **IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($34 / in at $24
  • **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($8 / in at $12.5) / Sold Sept $16 Cov-Calls

NEW’ish ADDS:

    • +TLT ($97.4) – Bonds: Jan ’26: +$110 / -$130 CALL Spread – hedge
    • +SPY ($554) – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$520 / -$500 PUT Spread – hedge
    • +SPY ($554) – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$500 PUT – hedge
    • +SLV ($26.4) – SLV: Sept 27: +$25.5 / -$27.5 CALL Spread


** Crypto-Currency aware


Please be safe out there!


Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>. 


Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.


If you'd like to view R.F.'s actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a StockTwits follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.


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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0   

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Investing = https://youtu.be/zIIlk6DlSOM 

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Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.


Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.


PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.


Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.


All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.


Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.


R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com



Sunday, August 11, 2024

This Week in Barrons: August 11, 2024

Figure AI just showed off its AI-powered humanoid robot (pictured above).  Its capabilities include working autonomously as well as with humans, in complex environments like… a BMW factory.   [Elon: There could be a new Sheriff-in-Town.]

You might not know it from the news…  but we’re in the dog days of August.  So, I put my Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses on for size and really tried them out.  Honestly, Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg could be on to something – if they conquer the invasion of privacy thing.  I find them a good way (instead of earbuds) for: making phone calls, listening to music / podcasts, and taking photos.  I tried Meta’s built-in AI assistant and found it completely useless.  While looking at my son’s Irish Terrier, I asked Meta what kind of dog I was looking at, and Meta responded: “There is no dog in this picture.”  My assessment is based on the quality of the Ray-Ban glasses, and their audio/video capabilities that are a good product/market fit for me right now.

Silence vs Noise:  Per Seth G: when a group comes together, it naturally makes noise.  Any commotion made by a few people will trigger the noise.  On the other hand, silence requires everyone to be in sync and ignore those triggers – and that is much tougher.


The Market:


The Japanese Carry-Trade:

  • 1. For 30 years Japan has had negative or 0% interest on their currency.
  • 2. As a result, for 30 years investors borrowed YEN at no cost, converted YEN into DOLLARS, and invested it in T-Bills and equities.
  • 3. Ten days ago, the BOJ (Bank of Japan) took the world by surprise by increasing interest rates by 0.25%.
  • 4. Investors quickly realized that their borrowings were no longer free, and because of that started to unwind their trades, convert Dollars to Yen, and send the funds back to Japan.
  • 5. The estimates for this risk-asset sell-off range between $4T and $20T.

The Timing of the Sell-Off:  Overleveraged institutions were forced to de-risk over the August 4th weekend – leading them to initially sell their crypto due to its 24/7 nature.  Then they sold currencies, equities, and other assets once the futures markets opened later on Sunday evening / Monday morning.  


This Drop is a Gift…  but moves like these normally take weeks/months to settle out.   Be patient, and compile your shopping list.  Wait to see some stabilization and positive price action – then buy with confidence.


Going forward…  history tells us that returns over the next year will be above average; however, the path will not be an easy one.  Bear markets bring large numbers of stocks reaching oversold conditions – and we are not seeing that.  Recessions bring widening credit spreads – and we are not seeing that.  Thus far, this is a buying opportunity.


Things I use:  I believe that most of our financial decisions should not be done alone, and for that purpose - Advisor.com is around to help. I like them, but please examine them for yourself at no cost… R.F. Culbertson.


[ Learn about Advisor.com here… ]


InfoBits:


  • Tim Walz (the Democratic VP candidate) …  has something in common with ~80% of Americans.  Neither Tim nor his wife directly own any stocks, mutual funds, bonds, crypto, or real estate.  He’s a true working-class American.
  • Big Tobacco is asking for enforcement.  Tobacco and vape companies are facing a knockoff nightmare as Chinese vapes are flooding U.S. shelves.
  • Warren Buffet’s Berkshire cut their stake in Apple by 49%.
  • A federal judge ruled that Google violated antitrust laws…  by monopolizing online search. 
  • Over 3,200 companies have announced mass layoffs in 2024.
  • X has a new business model: suing its customers.  Elon (the owner of X) filed a lawsuit alleging that a coalition of major advertisers conspired to withhold advertising dollars from X.  [FYI – more advertisers dropped X as a result.]
  • "Sell the first rate cut'…  says B of A’s top global strategist – as the economy heads toward a hard landing and our FED gets set to slash rates. 
  • The FDA approved the first nasal spray to treat severe allergic reactions:  Neffy is a needle-free alternative to the EpiPen.
  • ‘Mo Money … Mo Losses…’  As more insurers make Wegovy part of their coverage, Novo Nordisk (Wegovy owner) is facing a complex web of rebates, commissions, and price concessions to pharmacy benefit managers.  Add to that supply chain constraints and pricing pressure from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound – and you have a recipe for skyrocketing sales and dwindling profits.
  • Europe said NO to Elon…  as Elon admitted to training his AI company’s chatbot using Twitter’s personal data.  [‘But your honor, there is no such thing as PRIVACY within Twitter or Google – just read the Terms ‘n Conditions.’]
  • Paramount Global is laying off 15% of its U.S. workforce…  in preparation for their merger with Skydance Media.
  • 30-year mortgage rates have dropped to 6.47%...  lowest level in 15 mos.


Crypto-Bytes:


  • BTC dropped to $49,000 early on August 5th:  The last time BTC dropped by this much was November 2022, and then in March 2020.  Each of these moments turned out to be a tremendously great buying opportunity.  This time will likely be no different.
  • Jump Crypto, in a move that screamed: ‘Volatility Forever’…  unloaded $91m of ETH over the August 4th weekend, turning the market into a rollercoaster.  They contributed to ETH’s price tanking below $2,200 – leaving traders fuming and pointing fingers.
  • It’s NOT Bitcoin’s fault…  as analysts see no extra bad vibes for crypto during this market tumble, and believe that Bitcoin may bounce back as a ‘hard asset’ when the dust settles.  Institutional money is still flowing into Bitcoin ETFs; therefore, crypto’s not going anywhere, even during its rough patch.
  • SEC swings and misses against Ripple (XRP)…  this week the high court reinforced the ruling that XRP wasn't a security when sold to regular folks, but XRP does have to pay a $125m fine – a 94% reduction (a ‘nothing burger’) when compared to what the SEC was asking ($2B and being found guilty of securities violations).
  • Vladimir Putin legalized Bitcoin mining in Russia…  coming as no surprise on the heels of Trump’s commitment to “mine all Bitcoin in the United States.”  Game theory says that all nations will compete for a stake in the Bitcoin network.


TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday August 5th:  The Carry Trade is cracking.  Global markets were shellacked last night when the Japanese market fell 12% (its largest 1-day drop in history). 

  • Every major global market has been hammered.  
  • Bitcoin tumbled more than 10%, sinking below $50k for the first time this year.  
  • Berkshire Hathaway dumped more equities in Q2 than during any other time in its history. 
  • The Mag-7 will erase $1.5T in market cap today – bringing the total drawdown in Mag-7 stocks to over $4.5T since their most recent peak. 


This is a Black Monday, and how long it stays with us is anyone's guess.  The Carry-Trade has been going on for 20+ years and it's ~$20T wide.  This resembles a margin call for the planet.  The game plan is probably this:

  • The BOJ will convene, and talk about intervening,
  • That conversation will cause a rip-your-face-off rally, 
  • But that rally will be sold as the dust settles.
  • Proceed with Patience ‘n Caution.

Wednesday:  They have rushed back into stocks, as they feel everything has been settled and we can get back to the business of only going higher.  I still feel there's a trap being set here, but maybe I'm nuts – I’ll admit that.  This all feels too cute to me – especially with Warren Buffett selling.  Fair warning.


Morgan’s Moments…  


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Next Week: Volatility is Sticky…


Bkdg:  Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride ended the week virtually where we started.  Volatility has backed-off, but I don’t believe that the fun is over because the bond market is signaling more turbulence ahead.  If this week’s CPI release comes out too soft == ‘look-out-below’.  By combining a too soft CPI with rate cut expectations, traders could find themselves in a street fight for the rest of the summer.


We are in a Volatility Channel…  We are in the beginnings of an SPX volatility box.  The longer that the SPX remains between 5200 and 5360 – the more open interest it accumulates and its resolution (either higher or lower) will be that much more violent.  Tip #1: Pay less attention to ‘talking heads’ and more to the 5200 & 5360 levels.  The market will define its move by those levels rather than by any fundamentals.


VVIX and SKEW…  Spikes in volatility never correspond to market bottoms.  Pay less attention to the VIX (a 30-day indicator) and more attention to the VVIX (the volatility of the VIX) and the SKEW (the relationship between out-of-the-money PUTS vs CALLS).  The VVIX (118) is still in the red/danger zone = above 110 – which indicates heavy hedging activity.  The SKEW is confirming market fear as it’s ~150 – indicating that traders are putting on their hedges by buying PUT options.  Tip #2: A high VVIX and high SKEW tell me that more volatility is nearby.


Bonds have room-to-run higher…  following their sell-off last week.  If more volatility is right around the corner (VVIX > 110, High SKEW, and Higher Dollar), then bonds will be a natural flight-to-quality.  Tip #3: Rather than buying bonds, you may wish to consider buying an out-of-the-money Call Option in TLT such as the one listed below.  


Short META…  because Meta is the Mag-7 member that has been most unaffected by this correction.  META is at the top of its pricing channel, and it finished outside of its expected move the last 2 weeks.  Tip #4: If you believe that move volatility is on the horizon – then META is an obvious candidate to go lower. 


Effects of a Hard/Soft CPI this week…  Watch for our Government to produce a goldilocks CPI this week.  They will need to release a CPI (inflation) number (Wednesday @ 8:30am ET) that is not too high or low, but rather: just right.  If the CPI comes out too high, it could be a deterrent for FED rate cuts.  If the CPI comes out too mild, that could trigger a market sell-off due to deflationary thinking.  I’m guessing that our Government releases a number that is extremely close to what the market is expecting.


SPX Expected Move (EM):

  • Last Week’s EM was $138 … and we moved all of it lower then higher – and ended the week unchanged.
  • Next Week’s EM == $115 … which is less than last week, but still high.  Keep your head on a swivel.  Please, keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle.


TIPS:


In Summary, the inevitable bounce from oversold conditions and logical support levels has come and run its course.  Markets will probably find another excuse to selloff as stocks run into short-term overhead resistance.


Tip #5: Congrats to those that participated in ~100% increase in Harrow Health last week. In my opinion, there’s more to come.


HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

  • 13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.04%
  • Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,470/oz. & Silver @ $27.5/oz.
  • **Bitcoin (BTC = $61,100 / in at $4,310)
  • **Ethereum (ETH = 2,600 / in at $310)
  • HROW – Harrow Health = $35.9 / in at $12 = ~Doubled on Aug 8th earnings
  • **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($17 / in at $12) 
    • Weekly: BUY Puts for protection & SELL Covered-Calls for income
  • INDA – India ETF ($55.8 / in at $50)
  • **IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($34.6 / in at $24)
  • **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($8.00 / in at $12.5) / Sold Sept $16 Cov-Calls


    NEW’ish ADDS:

      • +NEE ($77.46) – Energy: Jan ’25: $80 / $100 CALL Spread
      • +TLT ($96.2) – Bonds: Jan ’26: $110 / $130 CALL Spread – hedge
      • +SPY ($533) – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$520 to -$500 PUT Spread – hedge
      • +SPY ($533) – S&Ps: Jan ’25: +$500 PUT – hedge


    ** Crypto-Currency aware


    Please be safe out there!


    Disclaimer:

    Expressed thoughts offered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>. 


    Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.


    If you'd like to view R.F.'s actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a StockTwits follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.


    If you'd like to see R.F. in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: 

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0   

    Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk   

    Investing = https://youtu.be/zIIlk6DlSOM 

    Marketing = https://youtu.be/p0wWGdOfYXI 

    Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk 

    Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI 


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    Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.


    Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.


    PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.


    Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.


    All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.


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    Until next week – be safe.


    R.F. Culbertson

    <mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

    http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com