If you’re arguing for Free-Speech… then I must believe that you have something to say that’s worth listening to. Separately, all rational thought is based upon tests and improvements. Therefore, I assume you’re open to changing your mind based upon data, tests, results, and improvements. Because one without the other is worthless.
Pinocchio got it right? Pinocchio had a hard time having people believe his lies – because his nose got longer every time he didn’t tell the truth. We’re not very good at seeing invisible or gradual clues. If it’s important – Make it Visible. Create signals that shows us how we’re impacting the future. Per Seth G: Businesses gain competitive advantages by measuring & showing-n-telling elements others overlook.
The Market:
We got it all wrong with Inflation? We’re measuring the wrong stuff – on purpose. Past Treasury Sec. Larry Summers recently showed that all of the interest rate increases drastically accelerated the real inflation rate. He blames the increased real inflation on the current (fake) CPI measurement techniques. It seems that the BLS intentionally removed elements from the inflation calculation that became too expensive – like interest expenses. Larry said: “Pre-pandemic, borrowing costs associated with our mortgage and car payments were included in the CPI – and currently they are not. Therefore, when interest rates jumped, official inflation calculations did not fully capture the effects it had on the consumer. By incorporating those borrowing costs, inflation would have peaked last year at 18% - and not the 9% that our BLS told us.” The difference between 9% and 18% is a Big Difference. We can debate why interest payments were removed from the CPI calculation. But, what is not in question is that even with the CPI coming down – those interest payments have no end in sight.
The UBS investment team reported:
- If Democrats sweep the Oval Office, House, and Senate – stocks will fall due to the potential for higher corporate tax rates, and regulatory oversight.
- If Republicans sweep – stocks will rise due to less regulation, the potential for more M&A, and lower corporate taxes.
In both scenarios, choppier trading will be with us through the end of this year.
InfoBits:
- Friday was the last trading day of Q2, 2024… and both the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 went out at their highest quarterly closes in history – for the third consecutive quarter.
- U.S. home ownership costs have risen 26% since 2020… adding an average of $1,510/mo. due to increased maintenance and property taxes.
- Consumers are generally concerned about inflation… and are becoming more concerned about the job market.
- Startups that raised money in the 2021-2022 bull run… are likely running out of money around now.
- The 2 big EV hurdles are range anxiety and affordability. Americans are keeping their cars, trucks and SUVs for a record 12.6 years.
- 20 percent is the average rise in YoY car-insurance premiums.
- Amazon is working on an AI chatbot to be launched in September.
- EV maker Rivian just scored a $5B investment from Volkswagen.
- Waymo fully opened its self-driving robotaxis in San Francisco… after the service has been offered in Phoenix since October 2020.
- Containerships are backed up… as cargo vessels avoid the Suez Canal because of Houthi rebel attacks and the Panama Canal as it struggles with drought. Freight prices could rise to near pandemic highs.
- The Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. Gov’t could… urge social media companies to take down content it believes to be misinformation.
- SpaceX has landed an $843m NASA contract… to "de-orbit" the International Space Station in 2030.
- Show me ‘da money… Researchers found that Stadium Projects have NOT resulted in any notable returns for taxpayers. The only revenue increase seems to be the increased income taxes being paid by the team’s high-priced players.
Crypto-Bytes:
- Bitcoin lies at the bottom end of its trading range… and assuming that the primary trend remains intact, then this is a natural area to anticipate buyers to step in and drive prices higher into the end of the year.
- The majority of Japanese Institutional Investors… plan on investing in crypto over the next 3 years.
- Mt. Gox will start distributing $9B in Bitcoin in July. Current young holders are getting scared that all of that will be sold immediately. Professionals are just taking it in stride.
- Chamath Palihapitiya says Bitcoin will hit $500k by Oct. 2025… and thinks Bitcoin’s post-halving scarcity and its emerging status as a global reserve asset will drive the price.
- Analysts say crypto could mark the new “Trump trade”.
- Javier Milei, Argentina's president, is doubling down on Bitcoin… pushing for a free market of digital currencies. His pro-BTC stance is a big win for the crypto community and aims to curb the country's addiction to money printing.
- On the heels of the Ethereum ETF… VanEck filed for a Solana ETF with the SEC.
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
Monday: Mt. Gox holds over 140,000 bitcoins in bankruptcy. Bitcoin fell after Mt. Gox said it would start repaying crypto to creditors who lost their assets in a hack of the defunct platform more than a decade ago. Repayments are expected to start in July and be made in bitcoin and bitcoin cash. If bitcoin falls below its $60,000 trading support range, its next support levels is $51,500.
Tuesday: NVDA has a shareholder meeting tomorrow, and tomorrow MU will report earnings. If both do well, the entire AI sector will probably explode. I'm watching HAL here. After a big plunge two weeks back, it's been forming a decent "W" shape, and W's usually resolve to the upside. I'd take a shot at it over yesterday’s high of $34.62.
Wednesday: Take a peek at BROS – the chart looks interesting.
3 Morgan Moments…
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US… have suffered net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days.
- Crypto-Bears talk about… the upcoming Mt. Gox repayments, miners selling BTC, and the Fed holding interest rates steady – as near-term ‘reasons’ for Bitcoin’s weakness.
- Crypto-Bulls say… that they expect Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high above $73,000 in the coming months due to inflationary pressures, a potential FED interest rate cut, and continued institutional adoption.
- D-ID (www.d-id.com) is an AI tool… that allows you to create a fully customizable, conversational AI avatar in a few steps – without coding:
- Go to the D-ID website – log in/sign up to get free credits.
- Click "Create" and select "AI agent" to access the creation tool.
- Choose your AI agent's appearance from pre-generated avatars or upload your own, and configure its name, language, voice, and knowledge sources.
- Once it’s ready, select “Create Agent” and start a conversation!
Next Week: Q2 is finally in-the-books…
Bkg… Against an ‘interesting’ geo-political backdrop, we have more: same-old / same-old. We have mixed signals and mixed performance within markets and across assets. (a) The Nasdaq faces mixed short-term signals (tailwind vs warning). (b) The top 10 stocks virtually never remain on top. And (c) our capital markets activity continues to remain sluggish vs historical norms.
Q2 went out with a whimper… drifting down 0.26% on Friday. But, don’t let that fool you – the S&Ps will close up a healthy 5.1% for the quarter. Don’t be distracted by the end-of-quarter selling because much of that is being driven by institutions engaged in quarterly rebalancing and corporate window-dressing.
Retail will take 2 steps back… before it takes one step forward. Names such as: Nike (NKE), Walgreens (WBA), and others will need a couple quarters to regroup before investors wander back in their direction.
Don’t give up on tech… because along with Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOGL) there are names that I like such as: Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Microsoft (MSFT). We also have some strength in bitcoin miners / up-and-coming data centers such as Marathon Digital (MARA) and Hut 8 (HUT).
I also like Biotech for Q3… because I’d like to see Biotech (BTK) emerge as a market leader as this market cannot keep living according to the will of the tech sector alone. I believe that healthcare (XLV) and biotech (BTK) are more than capable of stepping up to the plate, and helping guide this market higher through the end of the year.
TIPS:
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- 13 to 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.44%
- Physical Commodities = Gold @ $2,336/oz. & Silver @ $29./oz.
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $61,300 / in at $4,310)
- **Ethereum (ETH = 3,380 / in at $310)
- HROW – Harrow Health == $20.9 / in at $12
- INDA – India ETF ($55.8 / in at $50) / BOT Nov, +$53 / -$55 Call Sp.
- **IBIT – Blackrock’s Spot Bitcoin ETF ($34.1 / in at $24)
- **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($19.9 / in at $12) / Sold Sept $30 Cov-Calls
- **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($9.1 / in at $12.5) / Sold Sept $16 Cov-Calls
** Crypto-Currency aware
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
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