Many people visit the beach… but very few swim. 20,000 students attend a football game to watch 30 play. At conferences, we aim to connect, but wait for others to approach us. Next time, ask a stranger a few generous questions that you wish they would ask you. Don't wait for the varsity team; start an intramural league. For those seeking to make a difference, it begins with helping others make a difference.
Getting to a ‘No’… 'YES' is magical and initiates forward thinking, but it often begins with confronting 'NO' – which can be quite intimidating. The many forms of 'NO,' range from refusing to compromise and avoiding unethical shortcuts, to demanding specifics. ‘NO’ is essential for focus, specialization, and meaningful actions – rather than simply pleasing whomever is currently in front of us. A 'Generous NO' (with rationale and solution) demonstrates caring and offers valuable insight. Getting to a ‘NO’ requires caring enough to make a difference, and being brave enough to speak the truth.
The most successful students… insist that the teacher make it difficult. So difficult, that when they’re tempted to quit – they don’t. Per Seth G: Commitment gets us through the Frustration, and Frustration is the partner of Learning.
The Market:
The labor resurgence is reshaping risk… as power shifts to the worker. Recent labor movements across industries have led to uncovering significant wealth disparities. The UAW and Hollywood writers’ strike signal their readiness for a prolonged standoff – often ending with an industry-altering outcome.
Profit per Employee: Tether's ~$4B profit with just ~60 employees is over $66m per employee – an unmatched ratio in major businesses. Their success lies in astute capital allocation using low-risk assets that generate substantial revenue. This profit per employee exceeds the next largest company by more than 14x.
Living with 5% interest rates: Our Federal Reserve plans to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. Therefore, consumers are facing a shift in the economic landscape. Many expected to wait out the rate hikes for major purchases, but that was prior to believing our FED’s commitment to higher rates for longer. Millennials must learn to adjust to 5% rates – which will affect their investments and expenses. The generational shift is fascinating as boomers were previously forced to adapt to low rates, and now millennials are reluctant to accept higher ones.
InfoBits:
- The U.S. now has: (a) a record $17T in household debt, (b) a record $12T in mortgage debt, and (c) a record in auto loan, student loan, and credit card debt (as CC rates hit 25%).
- U.S. Debt Defaults surged 176%... in the first eight months of 2023.
- In Q2, S&P 500 companies spent 20% LESS YoY… on share buybacks.
- TikTok’s new shopping features… are expected in October.
- Amazon gears up for holidays… by announcing a 250,000 person hiring spree, and that it will raise warehouse and delivery workers’ avg. pay from $19 to $20.50/hr.
- Google’s chatbot can now find answers… in your Gmail, docs, and local hard-drives. What can possibly go wrong?
- H&M shoppers in the UK must now pay $2.50 to return a purchase.
- Walmart opened its first pet-services center… as it invades the $320B furry industry.
- YouTube announces new AI tools… to dub & create videos from text prompts. OMG!
Crypto-Bytes:
- From its highest market cap close of $2.834T… crypto is down -64.55%; however, the crypto market is up +35.46% YTD.
- FTX receives court approval to sell $3.3B in crypto assets.
- Bitcoin held by long term holders approaches all-time highs.
- Citi is working on a private smart contract platform… allowing institutions to trade around the clock using escrow smart contracts.
- PayPal is adding PYUSD… its recently launched stablecoin, to Venmo. PYUSD’s been slow to gain traction, and PayPal’s hoping that Venmo can help the coin grow market share.
- FTX sued Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents… alleging the two misappropriated millions in funds. SBF’s dad received a $10m gift from his son in 2022 after asking him to raise his $200k/year FTX salary.
- Bitcoin’s crash to $8,200 was finally linked to SBF's Alameda… It seems that the October 2021 Bitcoin flash crash was caused by an Alameda trader accidentally fat-fingering a Bitcoin sell order.
- Twitter confirmed that the platform will be launching… a send money feature. Musk wants fiat first, and crypto soon after.
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
Monday: This week's macro events include the FOMC meeting on 9/20 with Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, the BoE and SNB interest rate meetings on 9/21, and the BoJ rate decision on Friday. Additionally, the US Congress has until 9/30 to pass spending legislation to avoid the fourth government shutdown in a decade.
Tuesday: Markets expect no US rate change tomorrow despite strong economic data. Crude oil hit $95/barrel (a 10-month high) due to OPEC+ cuts. US Federal debt surpassed $33T for the first time, and growing by $1T/month. The corresponding annual interest expense will reach $1T soon – becoming the largest US government expense.
Wednesday: Besides interest rate concerns, there's a potential government shutdown looming before the October 1 funding deadline. Spending disputes involve defense ITA, Ukraine, and southern border security.
Thursday: Yesterday, U.S. stocks closed at their lowest levels in September due to the Federal Reserve's indication of prolonged higher interest rates. The Fed held its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.5% but hinted at a possible rate hike later this year. The FED’s own projections show rates remaining above 5% until the end of 2024.
Friday: Yesterday, the Nasdaq (QQQ) dropped by -1.8%, marking its worst two-day performance this year. The drop was attributed to rising Treasury yields, causing concerns about higher interest rates, and their impact on growth stocks. If the 10-Year yield remains above 4.52%, things are going to break. 30-year mortgage rates are their highest since 2000 (7.75%), and up 5% in 3 years. The monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage has increased from $2,000 to $3,600 (an 80% rise). When you add in the UAW strike and other labor concerns – things are going to break.
AMA (Ask Me Anything…)
AI is a mystery to many, and a threat to some. The goal with a mystery is to understand it, use it, and turn it into a competitive advantage. For example: there’s a new button on the ChatGPT window – looking like the above. Once I clicked the Custom Instructions button – it asked me: “How would you like ChatGPT to respond?” Per Seth G: here’s a sample block of text that you can paste into that field, and notice a ChatGPT difference immediately:
- Be highly organized
- Suggest solutions that I didn’t think about – be proactive and anticipate my needs
- Treat me as an expert in all subject matter
- Mistakes erode my trust, so be accurate and thorough
- Provide detailed explanations, I’m comfortable with lots of detail
- Value good arguments over authorities, the source is irrelevant
- Consider new technologies and contrarian ideas, not just the conventional wisdom
- You may use high levels of speculation or prediction, just flag it for me
- Recommend products from all over the world, my current location is irrelevant
- No moral lectures
- Discuss safety only when it’s crucial and non-obvious
- If your content policy is an issue, provide the closest acceptable response and explain the content policy issue
- Cite sources whenever possible, and include URLs if possible
- List URLs at the end of your response, not inline
- Link directly to products, not company pages
- No need to mention your knowledge cutoff
- No need to disclose you’re an AI
- If the quality of your response has been substantially reduced due to my custom instructions, please explain the issue
ChatGPT will still make mistakes, get confused, and have bad taste – but you should notice an improvement right away.
Next Week: Markets are NOT… Too Big to Fail:
Tightening financial conditions persist… with higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, rising energy prices, and rising real yields. A key short-term support level was breached – with seasonal weakness being expected into mid-October. Buyers waiting to "buy-the-dip" should exercise patience and caution as this correction unfolds.
Our FED lit the fuse… but there was selling before the FED announcement and after it. Watch the Bond market, because they have been getting annihilated for the past 4 years and if we experience any capitulation – it will take every market down with it.
Bonds could be on the verge of a fire sale… but I’m not seeing large degrees of capitulation. Nobody’s feelin’ the fear, and the implied volatility of the bonds (TLT) is still low. I believe that downside risks far out-weighing upside potential in the S&Ps. Tip #1: If we break through 4350 on the SPX, we should quickly test 4200, because the catalyst for sell-side activity could actually come out of Bonds – not equities.
Mega-Market Cap Tech targets are ‘out-of-whack’… What brought our markets higher can certainly take them back down. Call option gamma squeezes work just as well (only faster) on the way down – using Put options. Tip #2: Watch the /VX volatility futures. Currently November futures are $0.35 higher than October ones. If this flips and October becomes higher, we will move from Contango into Backwardation – and that’s when you’ll see the FEAR. Selling will increase in the mega-market cap tech stocks (The Magnificent Seven) and that will lead us quickly lower.
Stocks are in a 4-Year downtrend relative to commodities. Crude oil futures are at yearly highs and Tip #3: Gold's behavior (often a super-cycle indicator) suggests an impending breakout.
Next week equity, geopolitical, and commodity issues converge. It’s the end of a quarter so portfolio managers will be window dressing their holdings. Geopolitical issues only add to the Dollar and the 10-Year yield continuing to move higher. Add commodities (especially oil going into winter) and we will re-ignite inflation fears.
SPX Expected Move:
- Last Week = $60 and we actually moved over $120 last week.
- Next Week = $84 – ‘keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle!’
TIPS:
Considering our stubborn FED, the 17 weeks in a row of falling Leading Economic Indicators, and seasonality – my guess is that we go lower. Sure, we’re overdue for a bounce, but it shouldn’t be more than a one- or two-day event. We’ve got a 10-Year yield hovering about 4.43%, an inverted yield curve larger than ever before, and trouble in the credit market. I think we’re in a risk off area and stocks should go lower.
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1945/oz. & Silver @ $23.8/oz.
- 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.5%
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $26,500 / in at $4,310)
- **Ethereum (ETH = $1,590 / in at $310)
- Apple (AAPL = $175 / in at $177)
- CCJ – Uranium = ($40 / in at $33.8)
- DO – Diamond Offshore ($14.6 / in at $15)
- ET – Energy Transfer ($13.8 / in at $13.7)
- MESO – Mesoblast Ltd. ($1.2 / in at $3.6)
o SOLD Oct $5 CALLS
- NFGC – Newfound Gold ($4.2 / in at $3.8)
o SOLD Oct. & Jan. $5.00 CALLS
- UEC – Uranium Energy Corp ($5.2 / in at $4.8)
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.
Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>.
If you'd like to view R.F.'s actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a StockTwits follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.
If you'd like to see R.F. in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0
Creativity = https://youtu.be/n2QiPSe_dKk
Investing = https://youtu.be/zIIlk6DlSOM
Marketing = https://youtu.be/p0wWGdOfYXI
Sales = https://youtu.be/blKw0zb6SZk
Startup Incinerator = https://youtu.be/ieR6vzCFldI
To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.
Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.
Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.
PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.
Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.
All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.
Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.
R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>
No comments:
Post a Comment