RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, August 20, 2017

This Week in Barrons - 8-20-2017

This Week in Barrons – 8-20-2017:


“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore” … Dorothy – Wizard of Oz.

What if Bitcoin is the next Global Currency?
   In the movie The Wizard of Oz, the all-powerful Oz turned out to be just a man behind a curtain, who used smoke and mirrors to accomplish his goals.  What if our government is the wizard, and bitcoin is the next global reserve currency?  After all, since bitcoin’s inception, the concept of using block-chain technology to digitally track money-flow has exploded.  I previously thought a global reset would be accomplished using Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), but what if the SDR is a ‘diversion’ while bitcoin (or any of the over 200 different crypto-currencies) is the real deal.  Let me back up.
   SDRs were created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1969 as a supplementary, international bank of reserved assets.  Every country participating in the Bretton Woods agreement was required to maintain official reserves of gold and widely accepted assets in order to maintain their own currency exchange rate.  But on occasions such as the 2000 Internet bubble and the 2009 financial crisis, SDRs were doled out to provide liquidity and to supplement a member countries' official reserves.
    Inside the SDR you have the: U.S. Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, the Euro, and most recently the Chinese Yuan.  I originally thought that the U.S. dollar would be replaced as the global reserve currency as part of a ‘global financial reset’ – and the SDR concept would be put in its place.  But what if the global financial reset is larger and more complex than originally thought?  What if it’s impossible for the IMF to accurately calculate each nation’s net worth?  The original concept had task the IMF with calculating the value of a nation by combining their physical assets (lumber, oil, minerals, crops, technology etc.) with their existing worth (citizens and reserves) in order to arrive at a total value for the nation.  This ending valuation would then be used to give everyone a percentage of a new global currency.  Recently, I've been receiving hints that this valuation can be more accurately arrived at using current crypto-currency & block chain technology.  Instead of estimating mineral reserves and guessing at intellectual property (IP) – block chain technology can be used to obtain a more complete digital, map of the money-flow.  This could then lead to a more accurate (and dynamic) valuation of a country and its global standing.
   A digital project such as this is beginning near Dallas, Texas.  A Chinese land developer has purchased 900 acres, and has started to build homes.  The digital community has been formed, the $50m ICO (Initial Coin Offering) launched, no U.S. citizens are involved, and all of the residents have agreed to use only the crypto-currency to run their lives.  This will allow the community to be valued down to the individual level.  The digital tokens have been created – and the process of monitoring transactions, and valuing everyone’s personal property, transactions, and IP has begun.  Every transaction will be implemented using the digital currency in order to get a true valuation of each and every individual.  If/when they can show meaningful results, then the IMF can come out from behind the curtain and introduce this new digital way of life to the world.
   To recap:
-       The IMF would like a digital reserve currency that would allow every nation to be dynamically valued.
-       At that point, every nation’s value and individual citizen’s worth could be converted into tokens that could be used for trading as well as purchasing goods and services.
   Once accomplished, what would be the value of THAT digital currency (call it bitcoin for the time being)?  Fundstrat Global Advisors is predicting that a digital currency will hit $6,000/coin by the middle of next year, and $25,000/coin by 2022.  They arrived at their valuation using Metcalf’s Law – which values a network according to the square of the number of its users.  FundStrat back-tested their model and can accurately explain 94% of bitcoin’s price movement over the past 5 years using this calculation.
   Standpoint's Ronnie Moas most recently raised his bitcoin valuation to $7,500/coin by trying not only to account for the number of individuals within a network, but also the extent to which the individuals use the digital currency.  His 2027 estimate for bitcoin is $50,000/coin, and says: “You can't look at this as a normal situation.  We're in an industry that will grow from $140B to $2T and the individual bitcoin price will move with it.  We’re at the same point in the adoption curve as we were in 1995 when we went from 1m to 10m Internet users.  The following year the Netscape browser came online, and we went from 10m users to hundreds of millions of users overnight.”
   The U.S. Government continues to support the crypto environment by auctioning off hundreds of thousands of bitcoins seized from people breaking the law.  The most high-profile example came in October 2013, when the FBI raided the online marketplace Silk Road.  Those specific confiscated bitcoins were auctioned off, and some winners of the auctions are:
-       Venture Capitalist Tim Draper – who on June 30, 2014 bought 30,000 bitcoins for $647 per coin, and today is looking at a profit of $115m.
-       Second Market’s Barry Silbert (who currently runs the Bitcoin Investment Trust) – who on December 9, 2014 purchased 48,000 bitcoins for $378 per coin and today is sitting on a profit of $197m.
   The tide is turning toward crypto-currencies and governments could be behind the shift.  Japan recently approved bitcoin as a legal payment method.  Russia’s largest online retailer (Ulmart) is now accepting bitcoin, even though Russia won’t explore the cryptocurrency until 2018.  And in the U.S., there is speculation that the SEC could overturn its rejection of the Winklevoss twins' bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
    I realize that I’ve gone on a little long about bitcoin, it’s positioning as a potential SDR, and its continued acceptance.  But when comparing it with our manipulated and over-extended stock market – I’d say almost exactly what Dorothy said: “Follow the digital yellow brick road.”




The Markets:   Factually this week:-       The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index continued its downtrend slide, and for the first time since June 29, 2016 – fell below its 200-day moving average and turned negative for the year.-       The relationship between the S&P 500 index (SPX) and Germany’s DAX broke down.  Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners, points out: “There have only been five other occurrences of this in the last twenty years, and 4 of the 5-preceded medium to large market pullbacks.”-       Wall Street’s volatility guide (VIX) moved above its 200-day moving average.  This fear indicator is often seen as a measure for near-term market drops.-       Gold jumped back above $1,300 per ounce for the first time since the Presidential election.  This was influenced by a weaker dollar, diminished expectations for a FED rate hike in 2017, and an indication that investors are hedging their bets against a further slide in equities.-       The Dow Jones Transportation average (DJT) continued to trend lower.  This is viewed as a sign of overall market weakness because companies that move goods and services should be moving higher along with the broader market.  When they don’t, that’s a bearish signal, and one that often previews a broader market fall.-       Last week a greater number of stocks hit 52-week lows than 52-week highs – which is something the market hasn’t seen since July 2015.  Combine this with down-volume dramatically exceeding up-volume, and it’s a recipe for continued market weakness.-       And perhaps the biggest signal that the market may face pressure going forward is the inactivity surrounding the Trump agenda.  Not because of the recent rhetoric, but because his infrastructure plan and tax cuts appear to be in jeopardy.



















   For the S&P index, a combined series of lower highs and lower lows, a break in the downward trend line, and an uptick in volume and breadth – all point to an ominous week ahead of us.  This is the first time in a long time (see chart above) that I’ve seen a complete S&P sell-off into the close – with all 100 S&P stocks being down on the day.  This is what it looks like when investors want out of their positions – at any cost.  The only place to ‘hide’ was in bonds, gold and volatility.


























   Last week we saw the volatility index (see above) explode above the 110 level once again.  Buying volatility (UVXY) is a method of hedging that the pros use, leaving only the retail investor to weather the downward storm.


























   The financials last week (as characterized by the XLF pictured above) had their most substantial down day in recent memory.  Any bounce at this point is going to be sold into.  Look for gold to continue its uptrend, the U.S. Dollar to continue moving sideways to down, and U.S. Treasuries to continue climbing higher.  Volatility looks to move higher, and off of its abnormally low levels of the spring and early summer.  This coming Thursday will be the annual get-together of top central bankers including U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank Head Mario Draghi in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  Policymakers are expected to deliberate on why the Phillips Curve (the rule that correlates lower unemployment to higher inflation) isn't working as it should.
   And finally, buckle up – because the latest rendition of the U.S. Treasury running out of money is about to play out all over again.  The curtain goes up on September 29th, and in the 2017 production – President Trump is playing a lead role with his quote: “The Federal Government needs a good shutdown.”  The 2011 production brought down the house – after a nasty showdown led to an unprecedented credit-rating downgrade for U.S. Treasury debt.  That curtain-call cost the U.S. taxpayers an extra $1.3B in higher borrowing costs, and coincided with the last 20% stock market correction.  With Congress not coming back to work until after Labor Day, that only gives them three weeks to work out a deal and pass a bill.  Undoubtedly, Congress and the White House will figure out a way to kick the can further down the road, but the ultimate day of reckoning is fast-approaching.
   By the way, in terms of the solar eclipse on the 21st - please play it safe.  If you don't have proper glasses, or at least a #12 welding hood – don’t risk even 30 seconds of looking at the sun.  Instead, get a pair of binoculars, and point the big end at the sun, and focus the small ends above a sheet of paper.  You'll be able to watch the entire thing on that piece of paper with no ill effects.


Tips:
   The DOW put in a high on August 7th of 22,118, and then fell back about 275 points to 21,843.  It then rallied up to 22,024 (a lower high), and fell back to 21,674.  If we bounce on Monday and don't make it over 22,024 before falling back again – we would be in a repeating ‘stair step’ lower pattern of lower highs and lower lows.  Such a pattern could get us down to 21,500 and potentially 21,200 before finding support on the DOW.  I’m looking for a ‘dead cat bounce’ on Monday, and then rolling over and heading lower the remainder of the week.
    The financial ETF (XLF) is only up 4.7% year-to-date (YTD), and is losing support by the day.  The S&P is still up 7.7%, but is getting its strength from the FAANG stocks that are still up 18% YTD.  The Russell Small Cap Index (IWM) is now down 0.4% for the year, and is just shy of entering corrective territory.  The retailers (XRT) are in correction mode as they are down 13.79% YTD.  The DOW transports (IYT) have come down 8% in the past couple of months and are now flat on the year.  If the FAANG stocks begin to drift lower, they could fall quickly and hard – and take the rest of the market with them.
   The level on the S&P (SPX) that the bulls need to reclaim is 2,438.  If the SPX can’t reclaim 2,438, then we will see 2,411 and 2,400 after that.  If we remain between 2,438 and 2,411, the markets will behave themselves.  If we go below 2,411, institutions will start to sell hard and fast.

Recommendations:
Bullish Plays:
-       Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) – also buy Ethereum & Litecoin
-       Paypal (PYPL) – Sell Sept 15th Put Credit Spread +57.5 / -60
-       EOG Resources (EOG) – Sell Aug 25th Put Credit Spread +80 / -82
-       Jr. Miners (JNUG) – Sell Aug 25th Put Credit Spread +15.5 / -17
-       YY Systems (YY) – Sell Aug 25th Put Credit Spread +69 / -71
-       Weibo Corp (WB) – Sell Aug 25th Put Credit Spread +85 / -87
-       Shopify (SHOP) – Sell Aug 25th Put Credit Spread +90 / -92

Bearish Plays:
-       Amazon (AMZN) – Buy Sept 15th Put B-Fly +940 / -920 / +900
-       Netflix (NFLX) – Buy Aug 25th Put B-Fly +170 / - 165 / +160
-       S&P Short Futures (SVXY) – Buying Puts
-       Volatility Index (UVXY) – Buying Calls

To follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

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