Thoughts – Mr. Oscar Wilde
Oscar Wilde: “Illusion is the first of all pleasures.” We give ALCORN millions each year – only to find out that they help prostitutes buy houses in order to carry on her "business" and they even offered ways to help import underage girls to work in the industry. With Healthcare - no matter what they try and tell us, the facts show it will cost more, be more intrusive, be less effective and we can't afford it. Wasn’t it just a year ago that Bankers lost billions – came crawling to congress begging for a bail out before financial Armageddon – and now they’re suddenly swimming in billions of profits again, while main Street crawls along, hoping for a rescue. Corporate profits that show Mark to Model instead of Mark to Market accounting. Revenues continue to fall while profits increase. Corporations announce stock buybacks with no plans to execute them – and insiders are still selling 18 times more than they are buying. Our own government states that unemployment as 10.2% - but based upon 1980’s calculations (before "rejiggering") it's well over 20%. Inflation that “doesn’t exist” – meanwhile oil, food, medical, insurance and education continue soaring higher – and while GDP is constantly being revised lower. And, the FHA’s recent binge to subsidize mortgage loans – will result in an astounding 20% default rate. Oscar Wilde: “I guess I’m not young enough to know everything. It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless information.”
Oscar Wilde: “Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.” In midweek – we learned that Dubai has had to ask it's creditors for an extension. Now – if you owe people money - and you ask those people to postpone your debt payments – it clearly tells you that they don't have the money, they need time to re-jigger things – and they are in financial trouble. In CNBC’s view - Dubai's 80 billion is a drop in the bucket and this event could be the perfect buying opportunity for those looking to get into the next stage of the bull market rally. But understand our own ‘sovereign’ situation is a thousand times worse – with just one government agency (the FHA) set to default on 20% of it’s $725B in bad mortgages – and that isn’t counting Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Social Security, Medicare/caid, or the FDIC. The FDIC itself said this week that “bank lending fell by the largest amount since the government began tracking data.” Also total loan balances fell by $210B – the largest decline in history. News flash à the U.S. will default (devalue) on it’s payments. There’s no other way out – you only print money for so long as a world abandons you as an investment vehicle. The Fed is monetizing our debt – it’s printing money, swapping it with other Governments through currency, and then that very money is coming back to us via treasury auctions. This is worse than a zero sum game, it’s normally called a 3-card Monty. We can't tax enough, or cut spending enough to make it work. Oscar Wilde: “America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between.”
Oscar Wilde: “I think that God in creating Man somewhat overestimated his ability.” Now – why is gold so despised by TV’s talking heads? Well respected fund managers who lost their shirts in 2008 – while gold was increasing by 20% continue to point out a bubble. Millions around the globe are coming to the realization that the whole world is a fraud, fiat money is worthless and "he who has the gold makes the rules". Now it's migrated from silly newsletter writers to entire Governments like India and China. Well – you can justify a stock price by whatever means you wish – but gold just sits there. An ounce equals an ounce, there are no earnings to massage, no sales to jigger, or interest to swap. They hate it because they can’t lie about it. Gold is NOT rising because it's a hedge against inflation – or because it does well in deflationary times also. Gold is rising because its the only money that's going to count when more and more Dubai's come to center stage. When Uncle Sam has to finally admit that the jig is up, we're busted and we need to devalue our currency and default on our debt. We told people in the year 2000, that gold will be $1,500 an ounce – and now we’re $300 from that point. With the 2010 Congressional elections looming – our government will want to pass more stimulus, and do more monetization. Hundreds of banks will go belly up, and there will be hundreds of thousands of foreclosures. The dollar will get crushed, and we will pave the way into the next massive bear market. Gold is still buyable – as is silver. Oscar Wilde: “We often give our enemies the means of our own destruction.”
The Market:
Dubai is going belly up, and what happens in the global markets? Europe had a big down day and ended the next day green - Asia had two red days because they have a lot of exposure to the mid east region – the U.S. market opened down 250 points and in an hour and a half almost looked like it was going green. Now for those new readers – it’s my opinion that the DOW will see 4500 sometime in the next few years. I plan on shorting and buying long dated puts on the averages when it's time – but it’s not yet time. This fall we’ve seen three major forces at work. One is the desire for performance, as all the hedge fund managers got killed and liquidated in 2008 – are doing anything they can to keep the market higher in order to make their bonuses. Then we have the talking heads cheerleading the recovery daily. And finally, we have the U.S. injecting trillions of dollars in stimulus via buy backs, interventions, backstops, guarantees, and direct ‘dark pool’ purchases. All of this has caused a complete market disconnect with the real economy. On the other hand, there are many who did make their fortunes this year and are quite happy to cash out and hide in safety.
The market warfare over the next couple weeks is going to be intense, with those wanting out probably outweighing those looking to get in. I'm thinking that the analysts will hype black Friday's sales as being "very good" and that will push the market up for a couple days, but after that, I wouldn't be surprised to see it back off again. This is great news for daytraders, but not exactly the environment that we like to trade in. In 2009 the market ran from 6600 to 10450 in a lousy economic atmosphere – and 2010 is shaping up to be a real "doozie" as far as the economy and bad news is concerned, so to think we have significantly more upside is probably looking too hard.
The easiest way to play this will be to simply daytrade or sit on your hands if the DOW is below 10,450, and go long if it gets over it. Even if we seem to be rolling over hard, I wouldn't go short for anything more than very short term trades. I think our shot at going wholesale short is coming, but it's not here yet. Oscar Wilde: “Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth.”
TIPS:
We have HL at 4.51, with a hard stop at 5.75.
We have SPY at 108.84, with a hard stop at 108.35.
We have NEM at 52.72 with a hard stop at 52.20 – over 55 buy more.
Let’s begin to watch GDXJ – the junior gold mining ETF – and SGOL (thanks to Josh for this one) – as there will be something here.
Remember the Blog http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/
Until next week – be safe.
R.F. Culbertson
rfc@getabby.com
http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/
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