This Week in Barrons - 8-18-2013

This Week in Barrons – 8-18-2013

Fracking, Natural Gas – Somebody Err’d Big Time…

This week – without a fanfare and without the NY Times or the WSJ carrying the news blurb – the US Government came out with a landmark study.  The US Government found that in shale oil drilling areas, fracking fluid does NOT disrupt the water table.  This is a major defeat to the EPA that has fought tooth-n-nail to stop fracking operations because they claimed that it contaminated the water supply with natural gas.  With the Obama administration being so completely on board with the environmental hard-liners this was an important finding.  Why?  There is an abundance of pressure on the Obama administration to slow down all of the fracking operations going on around the country.  The incredible amounts of natural gas that we’ve discovered, and are now exporting – means that (for the first time) the U.S. is providing energy to others (around the globe) for profit.

America was built on cheap energy.  The ONLY reason we built our vast rolling urban developments far away from cities was because land and gasoline were cheap – and people didn't mind driving.  That's what put millions of carpenters and craftsmen to work at the end of WWII – on housing, malls, and highways.  Cheap energy allowed that to happen.

I think the ONLY way we can truly save the American economy is if they cut all the red tape, do away with the over zealous environmental regulations, and allow us to produce enough oil and gas that we get back to $1.50 a gallon gasoline.  If they did that, it is my guess that the building/manufacturing boom would be so big it would surprise even me.  So, is this the start of it?  Honestly – probably not. 

I personally would love to see us go ‘full speed ahead’ with drilling, refining and gas capture.  But there are just so many regulations to get through now a days.  For example – here’s a true story that someone sent to me:

-       Last month a Missouri man who makes a living as a magician had quite the story to tell.  Because he has a pet rabbit he "pulls from the hat", the USDA contacted him about obtaining a USDA rabbit license because he uses the rabbit in the business.

-       In his correspondence he wrote:  “I just received an 8 page letter from the USDA, telling me that by July 29, I need to have in place a written disaster plan, detailing all the steps I would take to help get my rabbit through a disaster, such as a tornado, fire, flood, etc. They not only want to know how I will protect my rabbit during a disaster, but also what I will do after the disaster, to make sure my rabbit gets cared for properly.  I am not kidding-before the end of July I need to have this written rabbit disaster plan in place, or I am breaking the law.

-       This ended up being a 41-page document outlining the entire contingency plan that he would follow if a disaster struck.  This is the type of garbage our Government considers "normal" activity, and is making it more difficult for this  gentleman to earn a living. 

My fear is that the ‘insane’ is the new normal.  Everywhere I look the push is for more rules, more regulations, and more Government intrusions.  I'm just hopeful that their latest look into fracking and finding it not nearly as dangerous as was originally thought – could provide a light at the end of a tunnel.

On a related note – I am a firm believer in some sort of renewable energy.  I love solar energy but the storage of that energy is a real issue.  Batteries don't work that well, and other storage mechanisms also have issues.  Therefore, solar really isn’t a viable option until they solve the storage issue.  But recently some scientists in Colorado have come up with a solution that solves the problem differently.  Instead of batteries and panels, they considered a different ‘attack’.  They focus mirrors onto a tall cylinder filled with water.  This causes the water inside the cylinder to become extremely hot.  A catalyst metal is then introduced that causes the hydrogen (in water) to split from the oxygen.  They then bottle the hydrogen and store it in a ‘tank.’  There are no nasty by-products, and it’s completely ‘clean’ energy.  They are using solar power to split hydrogen from water – and then using the hydrogen to power our electricity generation facilities. 

My point to all of this is that we live in a country full of natural resources and a lot of smart people.  As much as we talk ‘doom and gloom’ of our economic system, the fact is that even if it fails completely (which is likely), something WILL rise from the ashes.  Cheap, abundant energy is one element that puts a lot of people back to work in a hurry.  A solution on how to harness the sun’s power – sets us up for generations to come.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

The Market:

This week we entered the land of ‘chop’.  With some form of S&P support at the 1650 area, we have worked our way down there and bounced around.  And when I say bounced around, an average day would have the market opening green, dipping red, going green, falling 140 points, and then reversing itself to close up 30.  That's one heck of a round trip.

So why the chop?  The taper talk is paramount, but there's also those 6 Hindenburg Omens that the market has flashed.  Then there are the ‘less than stellar’ economic reports that we keep getting.  Put this all together, and there are a lot of serious headwinds to contend with.

But everyday I have to listen to CNBC tell how great companies are doing, how great the consumer is, and how manufacturing is doing so well.  Yet this week:

-       Both Macy’s and Wal-Mart missed their earnings and guided lower saying the consumer is tight.

-       Cree (the largest maker of LED lighting) missed their earnings number, and said that sales are really slumping.

-       And mortgage applications have fallen 13 out of 15 weeks.  This week plunging 4.75%.

How can the Fed taper off the gas pedal when it's obvious that after 5 years of all this money printing, stimulus and bail outs – we’re just barely above stall speed.  The market has every right to be a bit edgy.  Some will say that we are just consolidating and ‘digesting’ the fact that tapering is coming.  Really?  I'm NOT in the camp that says the Fed can yank $15 Billion a month from their buying without causing harm.  Logically, if the market is up at these levels because of $85 Billion a month in Fed purchasing, doesn't it make sense it will fall to the level that equates with $70 Billion if they taper?

In any event, until the market either breaks out above 1709 or breaks below 1650 we are sitting tight.  I think the best play is fast small trades, not "jumping in" with both feet. On another note, gold and silver have both done very well in the past few days and (of course) TV isn't talking about that.  But let's face it, gold has outperformed the market since June, and there are a lot of reasons for that.  I’ve been a ‘gold bug’ for 12 years now and I feel that there's more to come.  The reasons we pounded the table for gold in 2001 have not changed.  I have stated that gold has a date with $2,400 – and silver a date with $70, and I'm standing on that.

In stock land, I'm a bit hesitant on doing much until S&P 1650 and 1709 either hold up or break down.  Over 1709 it would look like we should buy more, under 1650 we could be in for more pain.  On the precious metals front, I think we could see one small shake down, but all in all, the overall direction is up and buying the metals makes sense. Likewise the miners who have been beaten to a pulp have really done well recently. Back at the end of June I mentioned that picking up a basket of the highest ranked miners made a lot of sense – and congrats to whoever made that trade.

Tips:

This week I was stopped out flat on CAT and CCK.  But look at the movement in the metals – silver and gold.  There are rumors that there were ‘failed deliveries’ of some of the physical metals this week, and deliveries that used to come in 3 weeks are now stretching over 8 and 9 weeks.  Remember 6 weeks ago when silver was selling for $18+?  It’s now over $23 an ounce.  Congrats to the buyers out there!  Also – the miners are beginning to get a lot of interest.  This sector (in particular) has been beaten beyond belief – so it won’t take much to have some tremendous moves in a hurry.  You may want to buy into the junior miner ETF – just for good measure!

Also – I’m seeing SSYS (a 3D printing company) offering a fairly good opportunity to make 5% in a month.  The stock is selling for $99 / share, and you can sell the ‘covered call’ against it – Sept 21 - $100’s for around $5.10.  Now SSYS has been on a tear as of late – so you have a high probability of getting ‘stopped out’ – but you’re still making over 5% in one month, and you’re in a very fast-growing space. 

My current short-term holds are:

-       FB – in at 25.61 (currently 37) - stop at 36.00,

-       FCX – in at 28.47 (currently 31.52) – stop at 30.50,

-       SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 15.82) – no stop

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 132.88) – no stop ($1,371.70 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 22.44) – no stop ($23.31 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! a

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons - 8-11-2013

This Week in Barrons – 8-11-2013

“To Taper, or NOT To Taper … that is the Question.”

The word on the street is that on September 18^th we will see the Federal Reserve begin to taper (i.e. – to cut back on the amount of money that they’re printing to purchase U.S. Treasuries and toxic assets from banks).  I will go on record as saying there is ‘nothing’ more important to your portfolio than whether they taper or not.  This entire market/economy has been built on nothing but Fed money – pushed out to the 21 primary dealers – who in turn take large portions of that money and plow it right into the stock market.  Our economy is experiencing ‘junkie growth’ not ‘organic growth’.  Nowhere is the effect of the $85B per month as evident as in the stock market.

The stock market has risen dramatically since the Fed began printing in last November.  Often a rising market equates to a strong economy, but (in this case) that is far from the truth.  If you compare year-over-year S&P earnings, you will find that earnings have decreased 3%.  This market is based upon a TRILLION dollars a year being printed, and jammed into it on a daily basis.  The Fed has hinted for months now that they would like to ‘taper off’ the amount of money they print.  Let’s look at both sides of the tapering argument.

Why would you ‘NOT’ taper? 

-       The economy stinks, as 78% of the jobs recovery is based upon part time, service workers.  (FYI – Considering inflation, a person making minimum wage back in 1967 would be ‘wealthier’ than someone making $10/hour today.)

-       U.S. savings rates are terrible.  We’re presently saving at a 4.4% rate, and historically we’ve been closer to 6.7%.  Europe is saving at a 12% rate, with Asia being north of 20%.

-       Millions of individuals are trying to retire, but do not have the means.

-       The Government is issuing record amounts of food stamps and disability checks.

-       Government and Environmental red tape have effectively ruined the small businessman – the first 6 months of 2013 showed the smallest number of businesses created since WWII.

-       Housing is crippled (with interest rates rising), and millions are still  ‘upside down’ on their mortgages.

-       Adding this all together, you come away with the idea that they cannot taper.  If the Fed has injected TRILLIONS into the economy (in 5 years), and this is the best we have to show for it – then if they do not taper – they need to be ready for a fairly steep decline in the stock market and corresponding economic activity. 

Therefore, at first blush, potentially all of this talk about tapering is simply fear mongering – in order that the DOW see 20K this year.  In fact we’ve heard from the Fed on numerous occasions that when the data suggests enough strength, they would remove the accommodation.  And it’s been this type of talk that has been effective in keeping the ‘excess froth’ out of the markets.  

Why would you taper?

-       #1 – The Fed would stop printing money if it has decided that the global economies are simply too corrupt and debt ridden to be saved, and it’s time to do a global ‘reset’.

-       #2 – Or, with The Ben Bernanke leaving as head of the Fed next year, he could be willing to give the incoming head some ‘wiggle room’ to play with.  For example, if they were to taper, and the economy / market sags, the new Fed head can then boost the QE right back up and make it look like a rescue. 

-       #3 – But let’s consider yet a different reason to taper:

For months the economic reports have been poor.  In fact, in May the reports were so horrid that even the ultra-bulls were suggesting that the Fed couldn't be serious about tapering because the economy was so soggy.  Those reports have somehow changed, in a big way.  In the past few weeks I’ve seen some of the ‘prettiest’ economic reports I have in years.  From manufacturing (ISM) – which was outrageously strong, to the trade deficit report – I’m seeing better reports all the way around.  Something has changed, because the underlying data is still the same:

-       Unemployment did drop to 7.4%, but virtually all of the new jobs created are minimum wage, part-time service work.

-       GDP did increase by 1.7% last quarter – but only after completely changing the calculation – otherwise the number may not have been ‘positive’ at all.

So why in May were we falling off a cliff, and in July we’re the ‘Roaring 20’s’?  Is the Fed using the ‘pretty data’ to justify tapering, and crush the market?  Are they doing it to create ‘headroom’ for the next Fed head?  Are they doing it for a ‘global reset’?  What if they know that we're close to some real economic damage, and want to distance themselves from it?  In other words, if you're a central banker – your ultimate goal is to remain in control, be king of the hill, and keep other bankers in a position of elitism.  So, what happens if after all these TRILLIONS, the economy simply dies?  We would blame the bankers.  But what if they play the “We tried, but the Government wouldn’t help us card” – first?

Several times in the past year, The Ben Bernanke has said (to Congress) that he needed Congress and the Fed working together to help rebuild the economy.  And all Congress did was to bicker and do nothing.  Benji asked for some solid policy agreements from the administration, and got nothing.  Could it be that the Fed is willing to tell everyone that: “We pushed as hard as we could.  Congress hasn’t done a single thing to help us.  They fought us all the way.  We have to reduce our accommodation to remain solvent, keep inflation tame, and if the economy sags even further, it is Congress you have to blame".

I believe the Fed could be using ‘tapering’ as a scare tactic to force our Congress to actually do something.  Maybe the plan is to cut QE, watch the markets fall and the economy stall, and then scream at Congress that they were warned.

Therefore the bottom line is:  If they do some form of taper, it is because they have an agenda to promote, as everyone knows that the economy is not really strong enough to survive a taper.  For gold and silver, if they taper – both metals could get hit fairly hard.  But like stocks, if they don't taper, I could see September into October being very strong for the metals.  If we do get a taper and the gold and silver markets take a huge hit, then I will be a buyer on the dip.

The Market:

To quote a line from the old TV show Lost in Space: “Danger Will Robinson - Danger!”   Right now the stock market is flashing warning signals.  First and foremost is the argument whether to taper or not?  The other elements brewing are technical in nature – called “Hindenburg” Omens.  They are a group of technical factors (taken together) that often signal that something "bad" is coming.  Such as:

-       The daily number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8%.

-       On the same day: the NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago, and the McClellan Oscillator is negative.  

-       And the number of new 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52-week lows.

If you believe in stats, we find that within 40 days of a Hindenburg Omen there is a 77% chance of a 5% drop, a 41% chance of a panic sell off, and a 24% chance of a major stock market crash.  There has never been a market crash without a Hindenburg Omen, but there have been many Hindenburg Omens that didn't produce any drops.  The only reason to pay attention to this one – is that we’ve had 4 of them in the past week.  Beyond this, technically we are forming a ‘megaphone’ pattern in the market – often called the ‘jaws of death.’  This pattern (if it holds) always resolves itself by the market crashing over 50%. 

Adding up the size of the run up, the increased chances of a taper, the lousy technical indicators, and you have the ingredients for a market that is struggling to hold up.  Unfortunately, we have 6 weeks of this ‘taper on, taper off’ argument to wade through before we ultimately find out their decision.  Therefore, I expect an increase in volatility in the weeks ahead.

We’ve entered a time where the only thing that truly matters is the Fed and their printing press.  Forget the talking heads on TV telling you how great things are, and how we don't need the Fed.  Ask Detroit, Chicago, and countless other cities how they're doing. Ask the “new” food stamp recipients how they’re doing.  I can’t see how this economy or market hold up if they start to taper.  So if they taper, this is going to get very interesting, very quickly.

Tips:

Many of you have written asking for a list of dividend stocks that I like.  Frankly, high paying dividend stocks (over 6%) often scare me – because not many businesses have the ability to pay out that much of a dividend.  And, when they invariably cut the dividend, then the stock gets hit due to increased selling.  The dividend paying stocks that I like are often set up as trusts, REITS, and MLP’s.   

-       GOV (Government Properties Income Trust) – has a 7% dividend – and given they rent properties back to the U.S. Government – it’s the closest thing to guaranteed rent that I’ve ever found.

-       VNR (Vanguard Natural Resources) – has a 9% dividend, and is another one of the safest dividend companies out there.  They don’t do their own drilling or shipping, but rather piggyback onto existing projects.

-       EPD (Enterprise Products Partners) – 4.5% dividend, and is one of the biggest dividend payers in the energy space.  KMP (Kinder Morgan Energy Partners) is also up there – and they pay a 6.4% dividend.

-       Finally, NTI (Northern Tier Energy LP) – has a 20% dividend – but it can be reduced significantly at the drop of a hat.  The May payout was down 4% and the stock price was hit immediately.  I think this one is best to buy after a huge decline.

This week we sold out of JNJ for a $4 gain, but were stopped out flat on MMM, TEX, SLW, LOW, POT and JBL.  Look at the movement on BTU and ACI on Friday!  Keep an eye on the energy / coal sector in the coming weeks – it could be used as a ‘safe haven’.

My current short-term holds are:

-       FB – in at 25.61 (currently 38.55) - stop at 36.00,

-       FCX – in at 28.47 (currently 31.70) – stop at entry,

-       SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 13.69) – no stop

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 127.09) – no stop ($1,312.90 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 19.82) – no stop ($20.40 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! a

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons - 8-4-2013

This Week in Barrons – 8-4-2013

No Growth, No Jobs = Market at Record High?

The Labor Department reported that the economy added 162,000 jobs in July, after adding 188,000 in June. 

-       Of those 162,000 jobs, 54,000 were ‘fake’ (added by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a result of the Birth/Death model), and virtually all of the remaining jobs (103,000) were part-time jobs. 

-       The unemployment rate fell to 7.4%, largely because 240,000 adults left the work force and stopped looking for work.  And adding in discouraged adults and part-timers that want full-time employment, the unemployment rate becomes 14.0%.

-       Inflation adjusted wages are falling, and income inequality is rising.

-       For all of 2013, we have created 953,000 jobs, BUT 731,000 of them have been part-time jobs.  Companies are cutting full time workers and hiring part-time workers in order to avoid Obama’s health care plan.  Unfortunately, part-time workers can't buy cars or houses.

-       For all of 2013, we have created 24,000 manufacturing jobs, but have created 247,000 waitress, waiter and bartender positions.

-       For all of 2013, business ENTREPRENEURSHIP is at it’s weakest point EVER = fewest businesses started on record!

-       Food stamps, Obama phones, and welfare are at an all time high.  20% of all Americans get some form of Government handout!

With that as a backdrop, is any of this QE-Taper friendly?

History shows us that 4 years into the Reagan recovery (a much deeper recession than Obama inherited) – GDP growth was 5.1% per year – and job creation was quite robust.  Under Obama – our job creation is abysmal, and (even with a complete re-calculation of the GDP rate) our present GDP growth rate is a mere 1.7%.

What about the DOW and the S&P?  Over the years, ‘the powers that be’ have manipulated virtually every number.  Considering the DOW and the S&P: whenever a company begins to fade, and ‘look bad’ on the index, they ‘reconfigure’ the index.  They toss out the losers and add in the new winners, so that it always looks like the index is strong.  There is only 1 company that has continued to be in the DOW for more than 50 years, all of the others have gone by the wayside.  But re-jiggering the index (replacing ‘laggards’ with ‘hot stocks’) doesn’t mean that our economy is any stronger.  

What about unemployment? Over the years (especially the Clinton and Obama years) if they didn't like the rising unemployment rate, they'd simply change the way it was calculated.  That is why we have the 6 separate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6.  Back in the early 80's the way we reported unemployment INCLUDED those that couldn't find work, those that were frustrated for lack of work, and those that were woefully underemployed.  Those ‘real’ numbers are too ugly for the current administration – so we changed the rules.  Now the discouraged, frustrated, and under-employed are EXCLUDED from the current reading.

What about inflation?  Any ‘real person’ that has to buy groceries, gasoline, education, medical treatments, insurance, an automobile, a movie ticket knows that inflation is soaring.  But inflation puts a black mark on the current administration – especially after making a pledge to keep it under 2%.  Therefore, their current inflation calculation EXCLUDES food and energy.  Recently they also do (what is termed) a hedonic adjustment – which takes into account a product’s characteristics.  For example: your new computer may cost $100 more, but it is twice as fast; therefore, increasing productivity and lowering cost.  So, despite the computer costing $100 more to buy, after hedonic indexing, it is reported as ‘cheaper’ than last year. 

What about GDP?  Just this month we introduced a new way of measuring GDP.  This will have one of the most profound impacts on readings over the last 75 years.  What they're doing now is including ‘ESTIMATED VALUE’ into the GDP mix.  The new GDP calculation includes recognized expenditures by business, government, and nonprofit institutions on RESEARCH and DEVELOPMENT as fixed investments.  This has never been done before, and for good reason.  Art (for example), was previously recorded at cost ($17 worth of canvas and paint), but is now being recorded at market value.  R&D expenses were never included – just the sale of the products and services that can OUT of R&D.  Depending upon the estimator, the GDP changes could result in increase of over 3% per year.  Because the new calculation was used for Q2, and the first half only totaled 1.3% per 6 months; does that mean that the real GDP calculation (done the old way) would have been a NEGATIVE -0.2% (i.e. – denoting a recession)?

Honestly, more rapid growth requires importing less and exporting more. Dealing with the $540 billion trade deficit requires drilling for more oil offshore and in Alaska and substantively addressing China and Japan's undervalued currencies and other protectionist policies.  Obama has flat out refused to even discuss proposals from liberal and conservative economists alike on these issues.  Healthy growth also requires sound stewardship at the Fed – not a chairman bent on inflating the country out of its problems or inclined to support left-wing causes aligned with those hostile to business.  The current administration's anti-business regulatory policies and rhetoric are creating a crisis of confidence in the business community.  More jobs require trimming back on tax increases, and more realistic and less-ideological trade, energy and regulatory policies.

The Market:

As everyone knows, the stock market has been on a tear for years now, and all of it on the heels of The Ben Bernanke (and his band of merry Fed heads) printing trillions out of thin air.  They have put a floor under the market that simply cannot fail.

For weeks now we've been told that in September they're going to ‘taper off’ the amount of QE they are employing.  That has everyone worried and rightfully so.  If the only reason the market is up, is because of QE, cutting it would be ‘bad’ for the market.  I know this may sound ludicrous, but the economy is fading.  We've had stimulus, QE-1, QE-2, and QE-3, but after 5 full years and trillions of injected dollars later, we're shouldn’t be rejoicing over a 1.3% GDP rate for the first half of 2013.

  

If I'm right, not only will there be NO TAPER, as the months go on, but they will start dropping hints about increasing the amount of ‘monetary accommodation’ they will employ.  Right now The Ben Bernanke is printing and distributing $85B a month.  I can see that going to $100B between now and March of 2014.  If that happens, I expect gold, silver and stocks to all move higher.  But it will be the stock market that moves the most at first – because it is the ONLY element that is under the FED’s direct control.  The FED can’t create jobs, or economic strength, but they can keep buying stocks and futures.  

During the last couple days we learned a lot of things.

-       Mortgage applications fell 3.7% for the week; and are now down 58.8% for the year.

-       Home ownership is at an 18 year low.

-       If you add up all the companies that have reported globally, you’ll find that 60% of them were negative.

-       We learned that the first quarter GDP was revised from 1.9, to just 1.1%.

-       With the largest re-jiggering to the GDP calculation methodology, the best they could come up with was a 1.7% reading for Q2.  Are you kidding me?  1.7% was the best they could do, even after revising all the numbers back to 1929.

As for the market itself, keep an eye on the S&P 1,700 level.  We’ve had a couple days over 1,700 – questionable closes indeed – but still over 1,700.  If we remain over that, we could be in for a nice ride higher.  So watch that level, and don't let it head fake you.

In terms of precious metals – I promised some thinking on gold and silver a week back. 

Some will take what I'm saying, and think that they should shun the precious metals and just buy stocks.  That is NOT true.  What I’m saying is to buy stocks, then take the profits from them and use those proceeds to buy more gold and silver.  There's a big problem at the end of the yellow brick road.  At some point the velocity of money will spike higher and (in a very short period of time) we could go from our usual 8% inflation to over 25% (hyper-inflation).  That would be the ‘end game’ and force the elites to finally admit they couldn't fix things by printing and just let it all crash.

   

So, don't ignore the PM's.  Gold and silver will be set free; it’s simply a matter of time.   We're seeing trouble in the bullion banks; we're seeing very shady things happening in the futures pits.  These are all desperation moves.  But no Ponzi scheme lasts forever, and suppression tactics won't either.

In terms of Gold and Silver specifically, we can judge extreme trader sentiment by looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for gold.  The COT report shows the real bets of futures traders.  When traders all believe something, the opposite usually happens.  Right now, the COT for gold is coming off extreme bearish levels.  The last time futures traders were even close to being this bearish was 2008.  After traders hit that extreme level of bearishness, gold jumped 71% in 13 months.  This time around, gold prices have already jumped… up over $100 an ounce – or 10% – since their recent bottom in June. That’s put the trend in the gold bulls’ favor. 

Dennis Gartmen told CNBC: “People won’t like to hear me say this, but the trend in gold is up, and it will continue to be up until it stops being up.  That’s the only thing I’ve learned in 40 years of doing this in the business.  And certainly, I think the lows that were made three weeks ago will stand for a fairly long period of time.”  Dennis isn’t making a multiyear prediction, but as a trader – with a short-term perspective – he believes the low in gold occurred in June.  Gold is coming off extreme levels of bearish sentiment. And it continues to rally.  You can easily trade it with the big gold fund (GLD).  It’s tough to say how much higher gold could go. But the last time it was this hated, it rose 71% in 13 months.

Tips:

This week we purchased 3M (MMM) and Terex Corp (TEX).  We are up very nicely on FB (about 50%) and JNJ, but were stopped out flat on: BTU and ACI (after being up).

My current short-term holds are:

-       FB – in at 25.61 (currently 38.05) – took ½ off the table - stop at 36.00,

-       JNJ – in at 89.00 (currently 94.26)  - stop at 92.75,

-       MMM at 117.31 (currently 117.76) - stop at entry,

-       TEX at 30.00 (currently 30.66) – stop at entry,

-       SLW – in at 21.64 (currently 22.11) – stop at entry

-       FCX – in at 28.47 (currently 29.23) – stop at entry

-       SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 13.00) – no stop

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 126.71) – no stop ($1,310.60 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 19.19) – no stop ($19.90 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! a

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