RF's Financial News

Sunday, November 4, 2012

This Week in Barrons - 11.4.2012

This Week in Barrons – 11-4-2012

“An entrepreneur must be big enough to admit his mistakes, smart enough to profit from them, and strong enough to correct them.” ... John Maxwell

I have never gone to war, but I’m getting a real sense of total devastation when I see what Hurricane Sandy did to New York and New Jersey. It's one thing to see it on TV. It's quite another (as many of you have written) “to be standing in water up to your waist, using a chainsaw to cut an oak tree out of your neighbor’s bedroom.” You tell me that about half of the cell towers are out of service, and some towns won’t have power for another 3 weeks. Some of you are still prohibited from going back to your neighborhoods to even assess the damage – my thoughts and prayers go out to all effected.

Due to the hurricane and the shortened market week – allow me to address some listener’s e-mails.

Concerning the election DS writes: Berry and Bickers, (Political Science Professors at the University of Colorado who have correctly predicted the presidential winner since 1980) are predicting a landslide victory for Romney. Others such as Porter Stansbury predict an Obama victory – followed by a mass explosion of our national gas industry. He recounts that Obama will use the natural gas industry to make US fuels an ‘in demand’ commodity the world over – and consequently will use it’s taxes as a way to cure the debt/fiscal crisis. A third viewpoint by TL says that we potentially won’t know for weeks who wins this coming election – as it will just be too close to call. In any case – need I remind you to get out and VOTE on Tuesday.

SB was kind enough to remind me of something Mark Cuban (a Pittsburgh native) wrote 4 years ago. If you believe that small business is the engine of jobs and growth it’s definitely worth repeating: “Entrepreneurs who create something out of nothing don’t care what tax rates are. Bill Gates didn’t monitor the marginal tax rate when he dropped out of Harvard and started Microsoft. I doubt that any great business or invention started with a discussion or even a consideration of what the current or projected income or capital gains tax was or would be. Entrepreneurs live to be entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs live for the juice of having a vision and fighting to see it come true, thinking ‘mission accomplished’, and the scoreboard of the financial rewards. I have never had a discussion with anyone about starting a business that included tax rates. If anyone that wanted an investment from me made a point of discussing tax rates as an impact on their business, I wouldn’t invest in them - ever. Honestly, it doesn’t matter what our Presidential candidates and their economic advisors come up with – it’s meaningless. The cure to our economic problems is the Entrepreneurial Spirit of All Americans. Instead of bitching at each other, could one Presidential candidate please show even the least bit of leadership and character and stand up for and encourage the entrepreneurs in this country? Could our candidates stop yelling at each other, start looking at the American people, and encouraging the best of who we are? That person is the one I want to get behind. The best time for little guys to start a business is when the big guys are worrying about surviving in theirs. You don’t need to raise money. You need to be smart and be focused. It’s up to entrepreneurs to start businesses and create jobs. That is the cure to this country’s economic problems.”

And finally JA wrote about some crime statistics surrounding the “goings on” in Australia. It has now been 12 months since gun owners in Australia were forced (by a new law) to surrender their personal firearms (640,381 at last count) to be destroyed by the Aussie government, costing Aussie taxpayers more than $500 million dollars. In the first year:

- Homicides increased 6.2%,

- Assaults increased 9.6%,

- Armed robberies increased 44%, and

- In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300%!

The Market:

We have an election looming. President Obama has been doing a good job working with Governor Christie and has moved up in the polls. All the polls say that it’s virtually a ‘dead heat’ so it’s going to be incredibly interesting to see how this all works out.

In so far as the market is concerned, I figured they'd save DOW 13K and they did. Now it's all about the election, and we may very well see the beginning of a big year-end push. If I could see any demonstrable proof of this – I would put some money to work and capture some fast gains. BUT we need to get past the election first and see how the market reacts to the winner. If Obama wins, the markets may ‘pout’ a bit at first (considering all of Wall Street’s big donations went to Romney). If Romney wins, the markets may put on a big show of support. But honestly, until either happens, there is no sense trying to get out in front of this.

Many have written concerning Gold and Silver. This week (as the world sold-off ahead of the election) gold broke down and through the $1,700 psychological line in the sand. I constantly remind myself of the 5-year trend line – shown below for silver. It’s my view (at least in the short term) silver and gold will continue to move along that uptrend. If you are a trader, my advice would be to buy when it hits the uptrend line – and sell approximately 3 months later – rinse and repeat.

Tips:

In this shortened trading week I did absolutely nothing.

My current short-term holds are:

- SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 24.37) – no stop yet

- SLW – in at 38.50 (currently 39.20) – no stop yet

- GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 162.50) – no stop ($1,674.10 per physical ounce), AND

- SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 29.87) – no stop ($30.83 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, October 28, 2012

This Week in Barrons - 10-28-12

This Week in Barrons – 10-28-2012

“Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.” ... John Wayne

This week the US Government posted GDP growth over 2%. GDP is our Gross National Product (the sum of all the goods and services produced in the U.S.), and this 2% growth EXCEEDED even the brightest of estimates. With all of the major businesses telling us that they are dramatically slowing – how can GDP go up?

- Over 18 major companies are telling us that the global economy is dramatically slowing.

- The stock market darlings are missing their earnings estimates by a mile.

- CEO's are telling us that things “stink out loud”.

How can GDP go up? The reason is that the U.S. Government juiced the number itself – by purchasing over (33%) 0.7% of the 2% growth number – ITSELF – with money that it doesn’t have. So in much the same way as the September jobs report showed a decreased level of unemployment to 7.8% (courtesy of government employee hiring), this same government is now juicing its own numbers to make itself look better on the GDP side of the ledger.

I suggested back in June that the economic numbers were going to come out much better than the economy would suggest. Just imagine the (wink-wink) ‘courage’ that it took to print that 2% GDP number.

There is a real financial war going on between mutual fund managers too scared to buy over priced stocks, and banks that are flush with The Ben Bernanke's $80 billion a month burning a hole in their pocket. Will lousy fundamentals ever give way to a really deep, protracted correction, or will they find the ‘courage’ to give us a year-end rally? In the past, I’ve voted for the year-end rally.

Unfortunately, the DOW didn't challenge 13,600 because of rising earnings, wonderful fundamentals and a growing economy. The DOW crawled up from the 6,600 lows in 2009 on nothing but money printing by our Federal Reserve. Yet climb to 13,600 we certainly did. So, the market has proven that The Ben Bernanke’s Bucks do indeed move markets. But now we have a problem. In order to rise from 6,600 to 13,600 – companies had to lie, lay-off workers, account for all manners of write-offs, and even modify generally accepted accounting principles – in order to beat their publicized earnings “by a penny”. I think we’ve run out of ‘sharp pencils.’ If this had happened during any other market time in history – where 18 of the biggest, most amazing, terrific companies (like IBM, Google, Federal Express, Intel, Caterpillar, Apple, Microsoft, etc.) all came out and missed earnings and/or warned about lowering earnings guidance, we would have plunged straight down for 2,500 points instead of the 500 point plunge that we’ve seen thus far.

So the jury is still out. This collapse could (and should) indeed be the big one. This market has been primed and pumped like no one has ever seen – with $80 Billion a month flowing straight into the banks. Banks enjoy spending and taking risks with other people’s money, so what are they going to do with all of this money, it if they don't buy stocks? We have a very important election in front of us. We have a rabid Federal Reserve tossing the kitchen sink at things. We have an over-bloated stock market. And we have a global recession – all at the same time. So which group(s) will have the ‘courage’ to do the right thing?

The Market:

This past week wasn't very friendly to stock investors. After trying for the fourth time to break above a very tough resistance at the 13,600 level, the attempt failed and the market lost 500 DOW points this week. It should have. All the monster companies of the US economy missed already lowered earnings, warned about the future, and should have received an old-fashioned butt whoopin’.

And Thursday evening things got even sillier. Apple (the most darling of all companies) missed their earnings estimates by a mile. And, to add insult to injury, Amazon then came out and confessed that they too were not selling as much as everyone had hoped. So, come Friday morning, I had to laugh when the ‘magic’ GDP number of over 2% was released, as it’s validity was only rivaled by the 7.8% unemployment number released weeks earlier.

But I tend to think that there is also something else at work here. DOW 13,000 isn't horribly important as a technical indicator, but it's quite a valuable psychological level. If the DOW lost the 13K level, it would paint a very bad picture for the health of both the market and the economy. I simply didn't think they wanted to lose that level, no matter what. So we closed out Friday sitting at 13,107.

I don’t think that they want to run the market higher just yet, but they don't want it to cascade downward either. I’m biding my time until a true trend forms. Right now, I think sitting on your hands is the right play.

I have received a few emails asking about going short any time soon. My feeling is if the DOW loses 13K, then it would be time to do a bit of short selling. BUT – this market reacts to The Ben Bernanke's printing. If you go short and The Ben Bernanke steps up his bond buying, we will put in another 200+ point gain in a heartbeat. I'm still in the camp that says at some point they will ‘light-it-up’ and send this market into a year end rally; therefore, I’d rather do nothing than get caught short.

I do believe that a monster correction is coming. It could be starting now, but I think it will start around May of 2013. I think that because Wall Street is a very vocal supporter of Mitt Romney, and could very well be using this time to "do some selling”, so that Obama can't point to a rising market and try and take credit for it.

If I’m right, we could see a soggy, droopy sideways market for the next 9 sessions, see a Romney win, and a very powerful sprint higher. However, if the DOW loses 13K, it's not a good sign. That's a big mile-marker to lose and could mean that we have more downside ahead.

Tips:

This week I did not purchase anything – nor did I tweet about any stocks to watch. There’s an old saying: “Don’t fight the tape” – and currently this tape is ugly and it’s fighting to maintain that 13,000 level on the DOW.

I was stopped out of: TCK, RIG, CLF, BRCM – all for 50-cent losses.

I’m still holding silver and gold as a hedge against inflation and our currency.

As DS wrote us: “With the Fed so committed to quantitative easing, stocks might escape a crash, but not the dollar and Treasuries. Black Monday is more likely to occur in the currency and/or bond markets, with safe-haven flows moving into gold, not Treasuries.”

My current short-term holds are:

- SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 24.56) – no stop yet

- SLW – in at 38.50 (currently 39.34) – no stop yet

- GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 166.00) – no stop ($1,710.90 per physical ounce), AND

- SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 31.08) – no stop ($32.01 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, October 21, 2012

This Week in Barrons - 10-21-12

This Week in Barrons – 10-21-2012

“Many times the Questions are Complicated – the Answers are Simple.” ... Dr. Seuss

On Monday night, there will be the last Presidential debate. But like all of these debates, the questions will be hand picked soft balls. Just once I’d like to hear someone in the audience stand up and ask the tough – ‘complicated’ questions:

1. "Mr. President, with almost 11 million people living in their homes without paying the mortgage and/or taxes – tell me why your administration changed the banking regulations concerning foreclosures and bank accounting, so that people could live in their homes – not paying their mortgage – but rather purchase cars and iPads?”

2. OR – “Mr. President, previous to your administration – when a mortgage went 3 months late, a bank would start foreclosure proceedings because the bank had to take the entire loan value as a loss. Banks would then move quickly to get that house back on the market, repackaged and sold – so as to remove the loss from their books. Why did your administration change the banking rules so that banks now only have to count the missed payments as a loss, and not the entire value?”

3. OR – “Mr. President, your administration lowered the rules to make it easier for people to be granted permanent disability. And last month, more people were granted disability than actually got jobs? Is it true that in order to reduce the unemployment rate, your administration no longer counts the people on disability as unemployed?

4. OR – “Mr. President, you stated in your last campaign that you would "Fundamentally Change" America. Did you mean change it from a nation of rugged individuals, competing for the top, and being rewarded for it’s efforts – into a European Union?"

5. OR – “Mr. President, during your first term you have chosen to concentrate your efforts on Obama-care (giving a majority of the people something that they did not want) – rather than fixing the jobs and economic problems in the middle class. Aren’t you elected to give the people what THEY want?”

6. OR – “Mr President, when you took office gasoline was less than half of what it costs now. Yet while your green companies are going bankrupt and costing us billions, you continue to beat up on our proven methods of energy production such as coal, and oil. Will you ever change your mind and realize that if we cut the red tape we could again get gasoline down to a buck a gallon, saving billions for the American people?"

In my view, the economy (in the upcoming months) is going to go through a rough patch. If Obama wins, our economy will crash outright. If Romney wins, it will contract to very unhealthy levels. Therefore, I don’t think that there is anything either candidate can truly do about our short-term economic outlook. But I do believe that capitalism, entrepreneurship and significantly less regulations will get us out of the coming recession/depression faster. To quote Jack Welch: “If you can’t be right, at least be quick.”

The Market:

Sometimes I make predictions that come true. One thing I mentioned a while back was: “Companies have cut their staff to they bone, and accounted their books into fantasyland; I’m wondering at what point do lower revenues equate to little or no profits?” Well – the answer is now. We’re in the middle of a war between The Ben Bernanke's QE dollars, and horrible earnings. We have seen some our largest corporations miss earnings: Microsoft, Google, IBM, McDonalds, GE, Federal Express, UPS, and Intel – to name a few. The globe is racing toward a depression. Currently The Ben Bernanke is pushing about $80 billion a month to the banks in “Operation Twist” and "QE3". I’m wondering when the big buyers of stocks (the BlackRocks, T. Row Prices, mutual funds, etc.) stop buying stocks because they will view them as being over-priced, and having falling profits?

Right now every single investor is scratching their head (confused) because Wall Street has taught them that the market goes up due to strong fundamentals, increased profits, and growth. Investors are now seeing companies that have gone higher and higher – tell us that they have no growth, no increased profits and no strong fundamentals. Does every individual investor sell? Well, individual investors have removed $470B from mutual funds thus far. So how is the market within 220 points of a 4-year high – with so much money coming out of the market? The answer is Benji Bucks.

In the past if IBM and Google would have missed earnings by as much as they did – we would be down a thousand or more DOW points – not the couple hundred we saw on Friday. Could this snowball – absolutely – but what we’re seeing is that with $80B coming IN from The Ben Bernanke – is enough to temporarily offset the $470B (in total) that is going OUT by investors.

I thought we would see horrible earnings and we are. I still feel that Benji Bucks will support the market, and (at some point) cause buyers to ignore earnings and warnings and move the market higher. I also think that at some point next year we are going to enter a monster bear market. It will be so powerful, that The Ben Bernanke will have to pump close to $200B a month to stave off a depression. This experiment has never been tried before, so nobody knows how this book will end.

On Friday we closed the day below the 50-day moving average on the DOW. That is a problem in the short-term. I’m honestly surprised that the market didn’t rally and bring us back over that level for Friday’s close. That is a significant change from the last couple of times we dipped below the DOW 50-day moving average. But the S&P 50-day moving average is considerably more important, and it has held it’s 1,427 support level, as we closed at 1,433 on Friday. In a nutshell:

- I am cautious investor with the DOW under 13,600.

- If we close a couple days over DOW 13,6000 I would get very bullish.

- If the S&P drops below the 1,427 level, I would get very bearish.

Tips:

Thanks to DS for this: The biggest upside catalyst for gold is a massive re-evaluation by the Basel Committee of Bank Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS sets the international rules for banks. Currently gold is rated as a Tier 3 asset. This means banks can only carry 50% of its market value as capital. This could change in a few short months as it is rumored that the Basel Committee is planning on turning gold into a Tier 1 asset so that it can be carried at 100% of its value. The more Tier 1 assets that a bank has, the more money it can lend. What nations would this impact, well let’s see who’s carrying the most in gold reserves:

- USA = Gold reserves: 8,133.5 tons

- Germany = Gold reserves: 3,395.5 tons

- Italy = Gold reserves: 2,451.8 tons

- France = Gold reserves: 2,435.4 tons

- China = Gold reserves: 1,054.1 tons

- Switzerland = Gold reserves: 1,040.1 tons

- Russia = Gold reserves: 936.7 tons

- Japan = Gold reserves: 765.2 tons

- Netherlands = Gold reserves: 612.5 tons

- India = Gold reserves: 557.7 tons

Hmmmm – imagine that!

This week I purchased some: TCK, RIG, CLF, WYNN, and DE. I stopped out of: FDX for a $2 gain, DE for a $2 gain, and WYNN for a $4 gain. I am still holding the Silver stocks – breaking my discipline – as a hedge against inflation and our currency. I temporarily removed my stops on TCK, CLF and BRCM because the last 90 minutes of trading on Friday were horrific!

My current short-term holds are:

- TCK at 32.22 (currently 31.63) – no stop just yet

- RIG at 48.00 (currently 48.52) – stop at entry

- CLF at 44.66 (currently 44.10) – no stop just yet

- BRCM at 33.52 (currently 33.34) – no stop just yet

- SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 24.47) – no stop just yet

- SLW – in at 38.50 (currently 39.02) – no stop just yet

- GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 166.67) – no stop ($1,722.80 per physical ounce), AND

- SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 31.00) – no stop ($32.07 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>