This Week in Barrons: 8.3.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-832025-r-f-culbertson-qopsc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps closed up +2.2% for July (+7.8% YTD), and subsequently slipped -1.6% the first day of August.  (b) Volatility and Credit Spreads are seeing their normal seasonal upturn.  (c) Investors are skewing portfolios heavier and heavier into tech stocks.  And (d) US electricity demand has broken out to a new all-time high.  Overall, Per Callum Thomas: Investors have shifted their focus from ‘rebound management’ to ‘full-risk-on’ – as the recovery from the April low fizzles, and seasonal headwinds begin to weigh.  Short-term technicals are tenuous, pressure points are building, but medium-to-long-term trend indicators remain healthy.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-832025-r-f-culbertson-qopsc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

This Week in Barrons: 7.27.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7272025-r-f-culbertson-tvcwc

Factually: (a) Volatility (at a 5-month low) will rise from August to November. (b) Stocks, Bitcoin, and Gold are all riding waves of liquidity. (c) The Equal-Weighted S&P500 made a new ATH last week. And (d) Penny stock ‘gambling’ has doubled in recent years.  Overall, the rally continues to run its course. Per Callum Thomas: Momentum is strong, sentiment is building, valuations are becoming expensive again, and we could be seeing signs of a bullish rotation and broadening out.  But data points to things being a little too quiet lately – just as we head into a traditionally volatile time of year.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7272025-r-f-culbertson-tvcwc

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This Week in Barrons: 07.20.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7202025-r-f-culbertson-bqmqc 

Factually: (a) Semiconductors (along with their market cap weight) made further ATHs. (b) History tells us that the semis are normal & healthy, but need to be monitored. (c) Market cap Put/Call ratios and stretched valuations = stocks that are late in the cycle. And (d) Market booms start with good reason, and end when things get unreasonable. Overall, it’s a good opportunity to take a minute and look at the markets – as they relate to the risk and cycles outlook. Learning from history means learning to identify risks, opportunities, and what may come next. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7202025-r-f-culbertson-bqmqc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 06.13.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06132025-r-f-culbertson-dwqic 

Factually: (a) We appear to be going through a “late-cycle reset”. (b) Institutional sentiment is healing, and risk appetite is resurging. (c) Retail investors are running very high equity allocations. (d) Our FED cutting rates may NOT be a good thing. (e) The IPO market is opening-up again. Overall per Callum Thomas: There is mounting evidence for the ‘Late-Cycle Reset’ hypothesis. Just like the late-90’s we’re seeing: (a) A frothy market with increasing pressures, (b) That was given ‘new life’ via a healthy correction (shaking out sentiment but doing little fundamental or enduring damage), and (c) Then will melt-up into a later and larger blow-off top. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06132025-r-f-culbertson-dwqic 

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This Week in Barrons: 7.6.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7062025-r-f-culbertson-zqwoc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps have broken out to all-time highs, and put in a “Golden Cross” uptrend signal.  (b) Seasonality is still bullish, and will turn bearish later in the year.  (c) Sentiment is bullish, but policy risk is also rising.  (d) And we’re back to investors running record high allocations to tech funds.  Per Callum Thomas: This late-cycle reset is running its course via the “re-frothification” of markets.  The bullish momentum we’re seeing could have room to run, but we have renewed QE and Trade-War-Truce expirations starting next week.  I’d sell: tech, U.S. Credit, and the US dollar.  I’d buy: commodities, bitcoin, and precious metal miners.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7062025-r-f-culbertson-zqwoc 

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This Week in Barrons: 06.29.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06292025-r-f-culbertson-jrnyc

Factually: (a) The price action during the first half of 2025 is characteristic of a “late-cycle reset”. (b) US Semiconductors’ market cap weight reached an all-time-high.  (c) The biggest stocks are much bigger than usual, and vice versa.  (d) Risk pressures continue to increase – generating bullish signals.  Per Callum Thomas: The key theme of this week is a bit of marketplace examination in terms of the pressure points and risks – but if we’re witnessing a “late-cycle reset” we could witness a “What-If” bullish rally.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06292025-r-f-culbertson-jrnyc

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This Week in Barrons: 6.22.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6222025-r-f-culbertson-zokhc 

Factually: (a) The market is facing a “Wall of Worry” as noise levels are increasing.  (b) Currency flows coupled with negative seasonality are showing a transitional phase in the market.  (c) Again, it’s a perfect storm for increased Geopolitical Risk + Tariffs + the Big, Beautiful Bill to come back into focus.  Per Callum Thomas: the major theme for the short-term is one of worry, pessimism, and we hit a sour-spot.  The long-term optimist in me will say that walls of worry are made to be hurdled, but we cannot ignore the legitimate concerns.Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6222025-r-f-culbertson-zokhc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options