This Week in Barrons: May 25, 2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5252025-r-f-culbertson-uacbc

It seems like the sell-off that everyone was waiting for has finally arrived. The market (technically) was ripe and primed for a pullback, and simply awaiting some news or narratives as a reason/excuse. Per Callum Thomas: With the ebb and flow of government policy and macro narratives, there’s a new acronym in town: “RTFL” (Range Trading For Longer). With re-shoring talk rising, and tech capex dominating - where are the raw materials?  Where will we find all the energy to run the new economy?  Where are the materials to build the structures, the products, the devices, and wire it all together?  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5252025-r-f-culbertson-uacbc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

This Week in Barrons: 5.11.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5112025-r-f-culbertson-3oauc

This rally has stalled at resistance, and seasonality is signaling that downside risk is imminent. However, the risk-off signal is fragile, and could switch quickly from bear-to-bull at any time. The word ‘Recession’ is on every earnings call, and could become a self-reinforcing prophecy. Overall, a bull-bear stalemate has set in. Per Callum Thomas: This market is sitting on a window of optimism and anxiety, our floor and ceiling have been set, and there’s an explosive third option lying in wait. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5112025-r-f-culbertson-3oauc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 5.4.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

With the negative Q1 GDP print of last week and the soft CPI reports … the prospect of a disinflationary recession is being raised. Per Callum Thomas: One school of thought is that tariffs will drive inflation higher – while the other school thinks that tariffs will drive costs higher, squeeze profit margins and discretionary incomes, and result in being a demand killer.   In any case, the possibility of a disinflationary recession would certainly be bond bullish, and it just so happens that we’re getting into the part of the year which has historically been good for bonds (from May through to October).  So just as the seasons are turning bad for stocks (“Sell in May”), it may finally be the season for bonds.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.25.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Investor sentiment is bearishly one-sided … but the pros know that this is an eye-of-the-storm type of moment.  The lack of new bad news, some less bad news, and the rebound in stocks is giving everyone a sense of calm and relief.  However, there is a gnawing sense that whether you call it a bull trap, a bear market rally, or an eye-of-the-storm moment – there is another shoe to drop.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.20.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

When you ‘Follow the Money’ … it shows us that foreign investors are voting with their feet.  Per Callum Thomas, they’re concerned about the U.S. Dollar, high valuations, policy uncertainty, and recession risks.  They’re rotating out of U.S. stocks and back into their home markets or gold.  It doesn’t make sense for U.S. assets to trade at such a premium when Trump’s Tariff risk is this high, and our recession risk is over 50%.  [FYI: When you’re priced-for-perfection and then find yourself in an increasingly imperfect world – it’s time to pause and re-think.]  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.13.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04132025-r-f-culbertson-phc8c 

Overall: stocks came back from the brink of ‘tariff tinkering’ and ‘worst-fear dreaming’.  Markets remain unresolved, recession risks are still rising, and it will be tough for bulls to keep control of this market.  Per Callum Thomas: With volatility this prevalent, bull traps and bear market rallies must remain front of mind. A lot of market damage has been done, but U.S. markets are clearly ‘squaring-off’ against the prospect of a Great Restructuring.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04132025-r-f-culbertson-phc8c 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.06.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-462025-r-f-culbertson-tlx6c 

Factually: It would make sense that we rally next week … and make new lows later in the quarter.  The technical and sentiment conditions are ripe for a rebound, but the fundamentals, macro and value factors still look early in a bear market process.  It would take an extremely powerful catalyst to turn this sinking market around.  Per Callum Thomas: Rally-chasers can try their luck, but investors need to exercise patience and caution in searching for the next generational buying opportunity … aka = NOT YET.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-462025-r-f-culbertson-tlx6c 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options