Click here to Listen / Learn: https://youtu.be/cNzH19D6s_I?feature=shared
Q: I used to float, now I just fall down.
I used to know, but I’m not sure now.
What I was made for.
What was I made for?
A: You were made for THIS…
Q: Was I made for entrepreneurship? Entrepreneurship does not favor the greedy as it is NOT grounded in wealth creation, but rather in innovation and making-a-difference. Those that succeed have learned to put their employee’s and customer’s needs – first. Entrepreneurial success is found on the fringes – the areas that have been left unguarded. Spend your spare time building a remarkable original – because it’s nearly impossible to create a great sequel. Virtually all of today’s bestsellers are surprise-bestsellers. Are you made to be an entrepreneur? A: Unfortunately, the answer lies in the jig-saw puzzle: and you never get to see the complete picture – until you’re done.
Q: Was I made for investing? There’s a consensus among investors that someone out thereknows the market’s next move. Nobody will tell you directly, but that secret someone is you. It’s your salary, 401k, IRA, pension fund, and your investments. The SELLERS are: Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Jamie Dimon, and most corporate insiders. The BUYERS are: Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard, and anyone else trying to play catch up with the averages. The only problem is: BUYERS are buying what the people ‘In-The-Know’ are SELLING – and they’re buying it with YOUR money. The key to learning to invest your own money, is to conquer your fear-of-failure. A: Worst case, buy the SPY or QQQ ETF – and you’ll be a better investor than 85% of those other imposters.
The Market:
“You do the math”… Over the past 6 months:
- The average return for the Top 200 Cryptos = +154%,
- The average return for the Top 25 Cryptos = +393%, and
- The percentage of all Bitcoin supply that is now owner-profitable = +95%
This type of performance is rare in financial markets, and it’s all due to increased demand associated with the new spot bitcoin ETFs. Demand for new bitcoin is equivalent to 9,510 bitcoin/day – and we’re only making 900 new bitcoin/day (soon to be 450/day). According to Anthony P: there is ~10 TIMES the daily demand for bitcoin than what the network can produce. That imbalance of supply and demand is even more shocking because we are now 45 days after the official ETF launch. The sport Bitcoin ETFs have officially crossed over $6B in cumulative net inflows – making them the single greatest launch of any ETF in history. Are you made for crypto investing?
Forecasting Sales: When you find your first dozen people that are ~50% engaged in what you’re offering – do NOT count them as 6 sales. Per Seth G: You get ZERO credit for just showing up and ZERO credit for less than 100% engagement. Yes, I know that we’re all busy, we all have too many options, and we’re all constantly tempted to do less than what is required. But, getting less than 100% of someone’s focus and care, is like getting ZERO percent – so count it as such.
InfoBits:
- Apple broke thru its moving averages to the downside... as the market wakes up to the idea that Apple is a shrinking business.
- Jeff Bezos sold 50m shares of Amazon ($8.5B)... and saved $600m in taxes thanks to his move to Miami.
- There are no winners fighting inflation: If you keep interest rates high – you push the economy into a recession. If you cut interest rates – you risk inflation coming back and ruining your legacy.
- With the National Debt this high… +40% of all personal income tax dollars will be spent on servicing that debt instead of: better education, defense, infrastructure, and health services.
- EA gaming will lay off… 5% of its global workforce. Expedia is cutting ~10%, and Supermassive games is giving 27% of its staff the-boot.
- U.S. consumer confidence fell for the first time in 3 months… as worries shifted toward jobs and the upcoming presidential race.
- After a decade of R&D, Apple pulled the plug on its EV project… and surprised ~2,000 employees who were working on the project.
- In a post-pandemic world, Novavax plummeted 27%... after revenues and earnings missed expectations, and their forecasts for 2024 were flat to lower.
- Keep your head on a swivel… as Waymo has received approval to operate its autonomous taxis in Los Angeles, and on San Francisco’s freeways & Peninsula.
Crypto-Bytes:
- Tip #1: MATIC: keep buying it over $1… with a $8 target.
- Tip #2: ETH: keep buying it over $2k… with a $4.7k target, and then $70k.
- Tip #3: BTC: keep buying it over $46k… with a target of $65k, and then $250k.
- Trust, but Verify… because the blockchain will soon be the only way to verify anything.
- JPMorgan’s crypto forecast expects higher prices… because JPM has just flipped their view on crypto due to: BTC’s upcoming halving, ETH’s chances of an ETF approval, and a global buyer resurgence. Ya think?
- Ben Goertzel (AGIX’s visionary) is on the brink of unveiling… a “baby AGI” prototype. It will be both open source and decentralized to ensure AGI’s AI benefits humanity without falling under corporate or gov’t control.
- BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF is like printing money… because Bitcoin ETFs are officially the fastest growing investment vehicle – ever!
- Can bitcoin breach and remain above the $64,000 level? Now that’s the REAL $64,000 Question!
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
Monday: Keep an eye on the chip sector, as Taiwan Semi’s founder said that increased demand will require additional chip fabrication plants. The chip list should include: ASML, TSM, NVDA, LRCX, SMCI, AVGO, MRVL, AMAT, and AMD. If this tech momentum continues, we have SNOW reporting on Wednesday – and if it's impressive then it could soar. I may buy an out-of-the-money CALL spread on SNOW tomorrow.
Tuesday: Ahead of the GDP data on Wednesday and the PCE inflation data on Thursday, the Kansas City FED President Schmid is advocating for patience on cutting rates – citing above target inflation and a hot job market. He said that further disinflation would need to come from services, and wage growth would need to moderate. Anything attached to bitcoin has gone parabolic so watch: MARA, RIOT, MSTR, and COIN.
Wednesday: Bitcoin touched $64,990, and then the crypto exchange Coinbase crashed. In a matter of 15 minutes, Bitcoin went from $64.99k to $59k – losing $100B. Let’s see MARA’s (a Bitcoin miner) earnings numbers tonight – in order to see which way the train is moving in the morning.
Thursday: The big news is that the PCE inflation numbers came in FED friendly – and the market loved it. Spending was lower than they feared, and the core prices came in at estimates.
Friday:
- 2 stocks = 20% of the Nasdaq 100, and 7 stocks = ~50% of that same index.
- 5 stocks = 23% of the S&P 500, and 10 stocks = ~30% of that same index.
When you see the S&Ps gain 26-points, don't think that a lot of the S&P stocks had a decent day. Nope, reality tells us that less than 25 stocks had a great day, and the rest were flat or red. It’s not healthy to have a handful of the most powerful corporations in the world – dictating an entire market.
Morgan’s Moments…
Why are so many people buying Bitcoin right now? It could be as easy as: institutions wanting to make money, and now that they can buy the best performing asset over the last 15 years – they are going to buy as much as they can. I’m also wondering if people are buying bitcoin as an inflation hedge – because we all see inflation coming back.
1. In 2020, Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller went on CNBC and said: “Inflation is Coming! We’re buying bitcoin because it will be the fastest horse in an inflation-based economy.” Their prediction was spot-on. Bitcoin’s price was around $8,000 during the summer of 2020 and inflation was under 2%. By March 2021 (less than 1 year later) bitcoin was trading at $64,000.
2. Currently our FED has worked tirelessly to get inflation under control. But as inflation ticks higher, spot Bitcoin ETFs give more capital the option to invest in bitcoin than at any other time in history. Bitcoin analyst ‘Checkmate’ explained: “The current rally is different than in 2021. In 2021, it was the levered longs that were getting wiped out. Now, it’s short-sellers that continue to bet against the prevailing uptrend, that are getting liquidated as a result.”
3. Will Clemente wrote this week: “Anyone that’s bought a Bitcoin ETF is now up at least 15%, as it trades just 25% away from price discovery. Any group waiting to see whether the spot Bitcoin ETFs will have an impact – will soon become a momentum buyer – then the all-time-high breakout buyers will follow. It’s just human nature.”
Morgan’s Top 4 Tips:
- Tip #1: MATIC (Buy @ $1 … Sell @ $8)
- Tip #2: ETH (Buy – Buy – Buy)
- Tip #3: BTC (Buy … Demand > Supply)
- Tip #4: LINK (Buy @ $20 … Sell @ $70)
Next Week: When the Selling Starts…
What’s holding markets together? While you don’t want to get too fixated on seasonality, but the playbook for the year is: UP in Jan/Feb, DOWN in Mar/Apr, and then WOBBLY UP for the rest of this election year. Markets tend to be the ultimate bandwagon, and that’s dangerous because without a correction – risk continues to move higher. It doesn’t take long for one big, definitive sell order… to be followed by tens of millions of others. After all, this week both Google and Apple moved twice their expected move lower – leaving only Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia to keep the market from breaking apart.
Dow vs S&P vs Nasdaq: Speaking of valuations, while the Mag 5 are chasing the summit, small and mid-cap stocks are still cheap – at least on a relative basis. One market bull case calls for a generation rotation and catch-up into small and mid-cap stocks. But currently we’re working the other way as just 5 companies make up ~25% of the S&Ps $43T market cap. Over the past 30-days, even the DOW has been relatively flat when compared to the QQQ and the SPY – that have moved appreciably higher. Therefore, any trading momentum is missing outside of the Mag 5 stocks (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, and META).
An Energy / Oil bid is inflationary…. I’m not promoting buying energy stocks just yet, but I wouldn’t count them out. The oil and energy sectors are both catching a bid right now, but that is awfully inflationary (oil is ~$80/barrel).
Because 5 Companies are 25% of a $43T S&P500… realize that where Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta go – so goes the market. Tip #5: Therefore, use Defined Risk trades as you trade directionally – CALL or PUT spreads for example. The market has effectively lost its grip on reality with everybody turning their investment firepower toward a handful of products. Tip #6: This reinforces the Bitcoin ETF popularity – buy it if only as a hedge against the general, marketplace craziness.
SPX Expected Move (EM):
- Last Week: EM = $64 … and we finished inside the EM.
- Next Week: EM = $65 … but we have a lot more economic data being released.
TIPS:
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- 13-Week Treasuries @ 5.3%
- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $2090/oz. & Silver @ $23/oz.
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $63,400 / in at $4,310)
- **Ethereum (ETH = 3,450 / in at $310)
- **ChainLink (LINK = $21 / in at $7.78)
- **MARA – Marathon Digital = ($27 / in at $12)
o Sold April $32 Covered Calls
- **COIN – Coinbase = ($205 / in at $125)
- DECK – Deckers ($903 / in at $882)
- DKFG - DraftKings ($43.5 / in at $41.5)
- **IBIT – Blackrock’s BTC ETF ($36 / in at $24)
- INDA – India ETF ($52 / in at $50)
o BOT Nov, +$53 / -$55 CALL Spread
- MC – LVMH ($54 / in at $57)
- META – Meta ($502 / in at $458)
- **RIOT – Riot Bitcoin Mining ($14.4 / in at $12.5)
o Sold April $20 Covered Calls
- **MATIC – Polygon ($1.07 / in at $0.94)
o Sell it when it gets to $8 / share
- BOT Protection (Just-In-Case):
o BOT the AAPL Mar, +$175 / -$170 PUT Spread,
o BOT the IGV Mar, +$400 / -$395 PUT Spread,
o BOT the QQQ Mar, +$410 / -$405 PUT Spread, and
o BOT the XLK Mar, +$190 / -$185 PUT Spread.
** Crypto-Currency aware
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
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