RF's Financial News

Sunday, August 13, 2023

This Week in Barrons: August 13th, 2023

The Birth-Death-Birth of Barstool Sports:

Birth:

- January 2016 – the Chernin Group bought 51% of Barstool Sports for ~$8.5m.

- January 2018 – the Chernin Group invested $15m at +$100m valuation.

Death:

- January 2020 – Penn National bought 36% of Barstool Sports for $163m.

- February 2023 – Penn National bought the remainder of Barstool Sports for $388m. So, as of February 2023, Penn owned 100% of Barstool Sports after paying a total of $551m for it. Not bad for a company that started (20 years ago) as a free physical newspaper handed out by the founder.

Re-Birth:

- ESPN has wanted to get into the gambling business for a while now, because their traditional cable revenue stream is dying.

- August 2023 – Last week, ESPN and Penn National announced a 10-year partnership. Penn will pay ESPN $1.5B over 10 years including $500m in warrants, and Penn gets to launch a new sportsbook called: ESPN Bet.

- Then Penn decided to sell Barstool back to founder Dave Portnoy for $0. Yes, the same man who founded and sold Barstool Sports for $551m – bought it back for $0 – nine months later.

- Dave Portnoy currently owns ALL of a media empire that does hundreds of millions of dollars in cash-flow / year. He sold his ownership once for $551m, and then pulled off one of the greatest business deals of the last decade.

The Market:

- What are your dreams and your roadblocks? Per Seth G:

o Step #1 = Imagine what your customers want and care about it.

o Step #2 = Figure out why they don’t have it.

o Step #3 = Help your customers get to where they want to go, when they’re ready to get there.

o Step #4 = And that marketing stuff just got significantly easier.

- If you would like to see a great 3min. entrepreneurial pitch… look no further: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-gcZMNDc7Q

- 50 neighborhoods, ZERO open houses… By some measures, it’s never been harder to find a home in America – let alone an affordable one. There are over 50% LESS houses for sale as there were five years ago. That’s driving up prices and forcing folks to put their white-picket dreams on hold. People who snapped up houses during the near-zero-interest era don’t want to give up the sweet mortgage rates that they’ve locked in. Almost 90% of mortgaged homeowners have a rate under 6%, while the current 30-yr fixed is closer to ~7%. Nearly 80% of consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a house, and over 50% of owners who plan to sell in the next three years are waiting for mortgage rates to drop. Fed Chair Powell thinks: “Rate cuts are still a couple years out.”

InfoBits:

- S&P500 earnings on pace to decline -5.2% YoY.

- Without warning, all 4 major Australian banks… began limiting cash withdraws to $500 making some areas "cash free".

- Softbank V-Fund #1 = $12B in gains… while V-Fund #2 = $19B in losses.

- China’s export demand fell -14.5% YoY in July… and imports fell -12.4%.

- UPS sees revenues slacking over softer e-commerce deliveries.

- WeWork thinks that there’s “substantial doubt”… about its ability to continue operating due to: sustained losses, canceled memberships, and a negative -47% net margin.

- Verizon folded-up BlueJeans… 3 years after they acquitted the $500m video conference platform.

- China fell into deflation in July… and overall, the country is facing issues with over-supply and weak domestic demand. Additionally, foreign investment is going elsewhere as manufacturing looks to diversify away from China.

- Novo Nordisk's profit margins expanded… as Ozempic sales grow 58% YoY.

- X’s CEO Yaccarino said that video chat and payments are coming soon.

- Adoption isn’t just on consumers… the UAW wants our government to link federal incentives with union standards. EVs require 30% less labor than gasoline cars; therefore, the industry needs to keep their workers employed. If not, a pricey strike of: GM, Ford and Stellantis could ensue.

- Subway’s bizarre promo… the sandwich chain said that nearly 10K people offered to legally change their first name to “Subway” for a lifetime of free footlongs.

Crypto-Bytes:

Venmo-ing Satoshi:

- Stablecoins can be a profitable business… although their usefulness in the U.S. is limited. Stablecoins make 5% interest on customer’s deposits, and pay back 0%.

- PayPal unveiled a new stablecoin (PYUSD)… that is: “designed for payments and is backed by highly liquid and secure assets. You will soon be able to buy, sell, hold and transfer PYUSD”.

- On one hand, this makes a lot of sense for PayPal to do. They are a payments company. A new technology (Ethereum’s blockchain) has been popularized that will allow PayPal users to send money faster, cheaper, and more globally than before. If PayPal does not embrace the new technology, they will risk being disrupted by it because users don’t care which interface or app they are using – they just want to send money to another individual or business.

- My issue with the PayPal solution… is that it is centralized. The centralization of these new digital technologies will give issuers even more control over their users. We may get some gains in convenience and functionality, but we are giving up security and resilience. ‘Same shirt … different day.’

- Swimming against the current… can give you a boost when the tide turns. With crypto regulation up in the air, PayPal’s decision to forge ahead could help it secure a piece of the $126B stablecoin market as other players exit. PayPal’s entrance will force regulatory clarity sooner rather than later.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday: We had a down week last week – losing 2.5%. Given the seasonality issues, I think it's more likely that we trade lower, possibly down to the S&P's 50 day moving average at 4406. We get the CPI this week, and if it's hotter than expected markets will grumble. I’m watching GE over $114.88, and MRO over $26.50. But today's bounce just doesn't feel right to me. I'm going to remain a bit more cautious than usual, until this proves to me that it's not just a dead cat bounce.

Tuesday: Yesterday’s action showed me that they can jam this market higher, for no apparent reason – whenever they want. August is not traditionally a great market-month, and September is actually the worst market-month of the year. So, history says we should finally get the correction that's been missing for months on end. At 10:40am, we have the DOW down 455 points. If they do come in and start buying, I'd take a shot at the DIA’s if they got over $350.50 and are still going. As economic evidence mounts: “Total credit card indebtedness increased by $45B in Q2, an increase of more than 4% - taking the total amount owed on CC’s to over $1T.” And then there’s Moody's cutting the ratings of 10 US banks – with more to come.

Wednesday: I'm smelling some form of upcoming credit event as tensions are higher than normal. Just today shipping group Maersk warned of a steep decline in global demand for shipping containers – prompted by muted economic growth and customers reducing inventories. The whole world is slowing. Supposedly, markets are going higher due to earnings, but let’s be real: 80% of the earnings beats lately have come from them lowering their estimates so low, a snake could jump over them. The NASDAQ composite closed slightly below its 50-day moving average, and if they don’t rescue it – there’s a 1,700-point gap between the 50-day and the 200-day. It's a great time to sit back and watch things for a bit.

Thursday: The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM headline is estimated to rise +0.2% and on a YoY basis estimated to rise +3.3%. On a core basis, MoM = +0.2%, and to rise +4.8%YoY. The numbers are out and they’re asking us to believe that inflation is up 3.2% YoY, and core inflation is up 4.7% YoY. Hah, using every trick known to man to manipulate the data to look good – wow. Today watch energy and the chip sector. A deciding factor in here is tomorrow's PPI.

Friday: Today is the Producer Price Index (PPI). We will find out whether producers are seeing input costs rise because of commodities, and thus are hiking their prices. The numbers are out and they came in a tenth hotter than expected. The 10-Year yield pushed up over 4.1% after the PPI came in hotter than they hoped. 401k ‘hardship’ loans have sky-rocketed. There’s really no legitimate way this market should be up in the face of inflation, the fastest rate hikes in history, lowered earnings estimates, the increased amount of people living paycheck to paycheck – and yet ‘magically’ every dip gets bought.

AMA (Ask Me Anything…)

Our FED recently rolled out its Novel Activities Supervision Program. Reading it gives you the impression that innovation is a threat to traditional financial systems, and Big Brother is nervous about that. The highlights:

- The Tread-Lightly Areas include:

o 1. Complex tech partnerships with non-banks [Heaven forbid banks lose their monopoly],

o 2. Activities related to crypto-asset custody, trading, and stablecoin issuance [Our FED wants a piece of that pie],

o 3. Projects using Distributed Ledger Technology that could impact the financial system [Challenging the status quo], and

o 4. Banking services for crypto-entities and fintechs [Traditional banks are feeling the heat].

- Implementation Risks include:

o 1. Risk-based supervision based upon how much they perceive you’re shaking up the financial world, and

o 2. Continuous monitoring – as our FED will always be watching.

Next Week: Headed into a Tech Volatility Storm?

Correlation comes back to life… and we’re beginning to see a lot more 2-sided trading.

Watch the critical levels on the XLK, MSFT, TSLA, and AAPL…. It's mostly just the fact that Tech stocks dominate the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 indexes. Without those sectors participating to the upside, these indexes are going to have a hard time advancing. And without tech breaking to new highs (from overbought + bearish divergence) – a tech correction should be looming. If tech (XLK) takes out short-term support at $168, it then opens up a prospective ~10% downside move to previous resistance. Microsoft’s critical level to hold is $320, while TSLA falling below $240 will open up $200. META’s $300 level is pivotal, while the $170 level on Apple would be concerning. Tip #1: Focus your September shorts on AMZN and GOOGL.

Bonds and Notes are pressing into recent lows… The interest rate on the 10-Year is testing 4.2%. That’s the highest rate since 2007, and it brings the entire concept of a soft-landing into question. You can’t go from a 1% rate to a 4.2% interest rate without inflicting absolute pain and damage to financial markets. Tech is going to feel the brunt of the 10-Year’s strength.

Watch continued Dollar Strength… Investors are buying the dollar due to a global capital defensive, strategic rotation. You have bonds that are pressing their lows, rates that are touching new highs, strength in the dollar, obvious weakness in technology, correlation has come to life, and a ‘last gasp’ rotation into energy.

Energy is strong (+6%) in the past month… and Tip #2: Tells that asset managers are running toward the energy sector for cover.

SPX Expected Move (EM):

- Last Week = $79, and we closed approx. unchanged because of the energy sector. It’s never good to have markets rally due to higher fuel prices – because it simply signals inflation and a looming recession.

- Next Week = $66

TIPS:

Remember, the DOW is just 30 stocks = much easier to manipulate than the 4,000 NASDAQ stocks or the 500 S&P’s. All last week, we saw them buying the DOW even if the techs and the S&Ps were red. Watch for a continuation of that behavior.

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1945/oz. & Silver @ $22.7/oz.

- 17-Week Treasuries @ 5.5%

- **Bitcoin (BTC = $29,500 / in at $4,310)

- **Ethereum (ETH = $1,850 / in at $310)

- Apple (AAPL = $178 / in at $177)

- CCJ – Uranium = ($34.8 / in at $33.8)

- DKGS – DraftKings = ($29.4 / in at $31.81)

- DO – Diamond Offshore ($15.3 / in at $15)

- MESO – Mesoblast Ltd. ($1.25 / in at $3.60)

o SOLD Oct $5 CALLS

- NFGC – Newfound Gold ($4.40 / in at $3.75)

o SOLD Oct. & Jan. $5.00 CALLS

Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

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Sunday, August 6, 2023

This Week in Barrons: Aug 6th, 2023

Heads Up:

1. Per Jack R: Become a Category of ONE: The key to winning the game is to either be the first or be the only – and it’s far easier to be the only."

2. Was that ever a lucky coincidence… Per Seth G: the first type of coincidence is make-believe / magic / two things occurring that we never expected to occur. When you and your long-lost college roommate, 50-years post college, end up randomly sharing adjacent bowling lanes – now that’s a random coincidence. The second type (which matters far more) is when two unrelated events just happen in proximity. If you were drinking your first smoothie when you heard that your dog died. Going forward – seeing a smoothie may trigger sadness. As the world gets smaller, it’s easier to have these events in proximity prompt feelings that are unrelated to what they actually created. That’s why marketers work so hard to have their products show up in times of our lives when we’re likely to associate them with consumption. These are NOT random coincidences, but rather incidents that were planned in advance by marketers.

3. What do you do 1^st when thinking about starting a business? Before getting investors, systems design, or infrastructure – practice getting customers. Then find out what delights / disappoints those customers. Per SG: Customer traction is the only common thread between successful organizations.

The Market:

Heads-Up:

1. The biggest catalyst for stocks being under pressure, is the strength in the US Dollar. It's hard for me to be too optimistic on the major indexes if the US Dollar Index is above $101.50.

2. Apple’s services revenue… (App store, Apple TV, Apple Music etc.) has reached new heights - despite shrinking revenue from weakening iPhone and iPad sales. The iPhone currently accounts for half of Apple’s overall sales, compared with two-thirds 7 years ago.

3. Mergers & Acquisitions are finally picking up… only it’s not the kind of deal-making that investors want – fire sales and over-valued, in-trouble corporations. You know who gets screwed the most on these kinds of deals? It’s not the founders. It’s not the preferred shareholders, who get their money back first. It’s the employees, whose common stock is last in line behind all of the other equity holders.

InfoBits:

- US interest expense is rising exponentially… and about to eclipse $1T for the first time in history.

- Microsoft uncovered evidence… that Chinese-affiliated hackers installed malware inside the U.S. military facility in Guam. There are between 50k to 100k Chinese individuals engaged in global cyberwarfare.

- Barbie is on-track to be the highest grossing movie of all time… the film's total box office is now over $900m.

- The Heartland Tri-State Bank of Elkhart… has been shuttered and all assets transferred to The Dream First Bank. J. Powell wants us to believe the banking sector is safe and stable, a recession will be avoided, inflation is transitory, and a soft landing is imminent.

- Hedge Funds are the shortest they’ve ever been… since at least 2016.

- The PEG ratio (price to earnings to growth rate) on equities… is now comparable to levels seen during the Dot Com bubble.

- In Q2, over half of Amazon’s orders in the 60 biggest cities… were delivered within one day. AMZN is doubling its same-day warehouses.

- The U.S. 10-Year Treasury broke above 4%… a lot of people are betting on a breakout in rates.

- Walmart will begin to incorporate third-party ads… in its self-checkout lanes, store intercoms, and at free-sample stations. Just another way to reach Walmart’s 140m weekly customers.

- The Chinese government is capping… the time minors can spend on their smartphones. The best part is that they laid the task of enforcement at the feet of online platforms – not parents.

- A proposed NY law would block studios from state tax breaks… if they replace human actors with AI. NBC has received $100m in NY tax breaks YTD.

- Per Hank T: the 12-year risk free rate of return is now -7.5%... a 95-year record low.

- Oil prices received another boost… after Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary 1m barrels per day production cut into September.

- U.S. labor productivity surged 3.7% in Q2… while unit labor costs rose 1.6%.

Crypto-Bytes:

- SEC: “We believe every asset other than bitcoin is a security.”

o Coinbase CEO: “How are you coming to that conclusion, because that’s not our interpretation of the law.”

o SEC: “We’re not going to explain it to you, but you need to delist every asset other than bitcoin.”

o Coinbase CEO: “We really don’t have a choice. Delisting every asset other than bitcoin (which is NOT what the law says) would have essentially meant the end of the crypto industry in the US. It made it an easy choice: Let’s go to court and find out what the court says.”

- Michael Saylor CEO of Microstrategy… is issuing $750m in a secondary offering so he can buy more Bitcoin.

- Coinbase asked the judge… to dismiss the SEC's lawsuit against them because they do not trade securities; thereby, rendering the SEC’s arguments invalid.

TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):

Monday: The end-of-month / beginning-of-month activities normally bring in fund money. That said, I'm seeing a few sell waves. RIG recently put in an intra-day high of $8.79, if it gets over $8.80 and holds – I’ll take a shot.

Wednesday: Fitch downgraded the credit rating of the U.S. from AAA to AA+. From their remarks, they see the insanity of our situation both monetarily and fiscally. I've been scared of a ‘credit event’ for weeks. Could this be the start of something big and nasty? Combine that with the ripples that are forming due to the Yen carry trade, and the bond market could very well be what blows up. The dollar is up over $102.50 and the 10-Year is over 4.1%.

Thursday: For the second time this week, The Bank of Japan had a bond-buying exercise. While everyone focuses on equities, it’s the debt market that runs everything. When the credit markets get indigestion, everyone gets heartburn - including equities. The Japanese are saying that they’re tired of a cheap yen – because it makes things cost more to them. However, by letting it rise they are risking blowing up tons of global institutions that have borrowed cheap yen and invested everywhere else at higher rates. Credit markets are already upset over the fastest rate hike schedule in history. Add these trillions in derivatives, and a treasury ‘hell bent’ on printing trillions of more dollars – we could be creating our own ‘trouble’.

Friday: The monthly jobs report is out and on-the-surface the U.S. gained 187k jobs last month, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, and hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM. In Q2, US worker productivity rose at a 3.7% annual rate. In June, private sector hourly wages grew 4% YoY, compared to a 3% jump in consumer prices – marking the first time in two years that wage growth outpaced prices. And that wage boost has now effectively been largely offset by the boost in productivity. That’s good for employers and tempers wage-inflation’s impact on overall inflation. BUT that was ‘on-the-surface’, did you see the birth/death adjustment? The BLS’s Birth / Death model added 208,000 jobs for July. That's all of the 187K jobs and leaving us with a net -21,000. The BLS’s jobs are make-believe, and this means we actually LOST JOBS in July. Do the market and FED know this? Absolutely.

AMA (Ask Me Anything…)

Heads-Up:

1. The last time America built a nuclear reactor: My Sharona topped the charts and Jimmy Carter was in the White House. On Monday, a nuclear power plant in Waynesboro, Georgia, started delivering energy to the Southeast US. If all goes well, an additional nuclear reactor (at the same facility) is scheduled to go live next year. When it goes live, over 50% of Georgia’s energy will be from nuclear power. That compares to only 18% of the total US’s energy.

2. In a few weeks we're going to hear from Brazil, Russia, India and China = the BRICs. They will announce their short-term path toward a gold backed common currency. The official statement will outline plans on how they'll bring it to fruition. This basically ‘dooms’ the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency. We are witnessing the initial step away from fiat to gold backed currencies. Without the burden of expensive welfare commitments, all the attendees in Johannesburg can back or tie their currency values to gold with less difficulty than our welfare-dependent nation. And it is now in their commercial best-interests to do so.

3. What is the Yen carry trade? For years traders around the world have used Japan's low interest rate and falling currency for their borrowing, and then reinvested in currencies and interest rates providing higher yields. Japan has to decide to: (a) let the yen fall even more, which causes inflation for its citizens, or (b) "make it rise" via changing interest rates. Lately, the Japanese Yen strengthened and 10-Year Japanese Government Bond yield (JGB) spiked after the Bank of Japan said it would allow "greater flexibility" in its target range for 10-Year JGB yields. Yields for the 10-year JGB rose to 0.575% for the first time since September 2014. This is a Global margin call, and if the Japanese continue to push things – all manner of heck will break loose.

Next Week: Rally Back – or Bigger Smack?

The back-half of 2023 will look much different than the front-half: The selling pressure this time of year is right in line with all historical norms. The bounce in Consumer Staples relative to Tech stocks has occurred right near logical support levels. The CRB Commodities Index has run into this multi-year downtrend line and bounced. With Commodities outperforming since 2020, having them resume a leadership role makes perfect sense at this time of the year. This is all as historically normal as it gets. However, the back-half of 2023 is going to look much different than the front-half.

Currently, the S&P100 is not correlated… which means that it’s more of a ‘stock-pickers’market than a ‘run-for-the-hills’ situation.

Is market fear making a comeback? Yes, the VIX is higher at 17.19, but it has not broken 20. The VVIX is also higher at 101.17, but it has not broken 110. Thus far, the market is telling us to ‘be careful’, but it is not telling us to ‘exit-stage-left’. I use the 7-day SPX volatility futures (16.4) as my yardstick. I’m constantly comparing them to the VIX, and if their value exceeds the VIX – then I know to ‘pull-back’.

Bonds & Rates are of critical concern. The 10-Year (TNX) exceeded 4.1% last week, and that immediately ignited the ‘fear’ trade in the market. TIP #1: When the TNX exceeds 4.1 and remains there – then keep a close eye on the ‘sell’ button.

If inflation upticks – then volatility will rage. The longest time our FED goes without a meeting is between July and September. This is the time when the bond market is left to its own devices – to set the tone for the entire financial community. Last week we started to hear rumblings of a RECESSION – because of the soft Jobs number. If the CPI reading comes in ‘hot’ on Thursday, then you will see markets move and the rumblings get louder. Inflation could up-tick because oil has moved from $67/barrel to $82/barrel (+22%) in the span of the last 6 weeks. And if inflation moves higher while our Jobs are disappearing – nobody’s going to like that.

Trades:

- Tip #2 = BA = Boeing’s recent price action has given us a healthy pullback to buy into using an options CALL spread.

- Tip #3 = 3 stocks (per Howard L.) that very few people have heard of, have incredible price momentum, are valued in the billions, and get relatively no social interest. These 3 stocks have out-performed NVDA since 2020 (price and volatility) and each has less than 4,000 Stocktwits followers.

o CELH (Celsius Holdings = $143),

o SMCI (Super Micro Computer = $338), and

o SYM (Symbotic = $54).

TIPS:

HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)

- PHYSICAL COMMODITIES = Gold @ $1978/oz. & Silver @ $23.8/oz.

- 13 Week Treasuries @ 5.45%

- **Bitcoin (BTC = $29,050 / in at $4,310)

- **Ethereum (ETH = $1,825 / in at $310)

- Apple (AAPL = $182 / in at $177)

- CCJ – Uranium = ($33.5 / in at $33.8)

- DKGS – DraftKings = ($31.74 / in at $31.81)

- DO – Diamond Offshore ($15.70 / in at $15)

- MESO – Mesoblast Ltd. ($1.64 / in at $3.60)