Deadlines are extremely powerful… as a management tool. Once everyone agrees on the deadline – you don’t have to worry about it anymore. All of the negotiating and making excuses – end. Shipping no longer depends upon perfection, but rather depends upon meeting an on-time delivery date. If handled correctly, the quality of what you ship goes way up. Instead of spending time ‘n energy looking for reasons, excuses, or deniability – people simply do the work. Over time, you’ll get better at deadlines and promises – because when you promise you’re obligated to deliver.
Real traders:
- only talk about their losses,
- only care about their trades,
- love being right more than rich,
- do not count good listening skills as one of their strengths,
- still believe crypto and NFTs aren’t real, and
- can trade anything because nothing is off-limits.
‘Sitting on the fence’… is uncomfortable. I find it much easier to just get on one side or the other. Sitting on the fence wastes far more time and emotion than I’d expend committing to something. But that’s just me.
The Market:
- Don’t shoot the messenger: “So goes January, so goes the Year”.
- Ivan writes: “The easiest / only way to make money in this environment is intraday trading. This type of market behavior usually doesn’t last too long, except if it’s a new bear market – which is clear only in hindsight.”
- Per Howard L: “I added some Coinbase to my long-term portfolio. I feel that the right crypto is going to come out of this fintech crash as the true ‘fintech’. The era of neo-banks and payment companies has been spectacular, but just a pre-show to the real fintech disruption ahead.”
- China will promote its state-run digital currency at the Winter Olympics. The digital yuan (#digi-yuan) is the globe’s first major central bank-backed digital currency (CBDC). China recently opened it up to all citizens, and launched a digi-wallet app that already has 261M users.
- The digi-yuan could threaten the US dollar’s global trade dominance: Most nations purchase oil in USD. Also, the USD is used in 88% of all foreign exchange trades. Ms. Yellen, you’re ready for the USD to be replaced as the global reserve currency – yes?
- Digital Currencies: (a) settle instantly, b) are less expensive to create, and (c) are more accessible for people without bank accounts. Of the 10 largest banking systems, the US is furthest from going digital as concerns center around privacy.
InfoBits:
- Tesla (in China) launched an in-car karaoke mic: at $188, it sold out in 1 day.
- Sony, the company behind the world’s most popular gaming console… is buying Bungie – a former Microsoft subsidiary, for $3.6B.
- U.S. national debt surpasses $30T… ringing in the latest ridiculous milestone in the U.S.’s macro-economic arsenal.
- Mark Zuckerberg is no longer one of the Top 10… wealthiest people in the world. Facebook’s user additions stalled and guidance was abysmal.
- PayPal’s price plummeted… after the company’s disappointing earnings and reports of slowed growth.
- Burned out teachers are leaving the classroom for the private sector. After all, Teachers are underpaid, stressed, and the COVID-19 pandemic has politicized them (and their roles) more than ever before.
- Kanye (Ye) delivers a blow to the NFT space… to his 10.5m followers he said: “Do not ask me to do a f*cking NFT. I’m focused on building real products in the real world.”
- With FB spending $10B this coming year on immersive meta-future… is the worst yet to come in the stock?
- SeaWorld wants to double down… by buying fellow amusement-park operator Cedar Fair for $3.4B.
- Cruise, GM’s self-driving-car unit… secured a $5B credit line to help launch its autonomous ride-hailing biz. GM is starting to assemble 100 Cruise Origin shuttles.
- Google had better-than-expected Q4 earnings and revenue… and announced a 20-for-1 stock split that will go into effect in July.
- Peloton, the stationary bike company… is drawing interest from potential suitors such as Amazon.
- How do you increase the price of your Tesla… sign-n-drive it OFF the lot.
- Delta Air Lines wants the U.S. government… to place passengers convicted of on-board disruptions on a national "no-fly" list – FOREVER.
Crypto-Bytes:
- An Arizona bill would make bitcoin legal tender.
- Morgan Stanley’s “State of the Bear Market”… hi-lites BTC levels of $28,000 and $45,000.
- JPM believes that 1 BTC is fairly valued at $38,000.
- FTX just raised $400m at a $32B valuation… with its eyes on M&A.
- Justin Bieber is now the proud owner of Bored Ape #3001… which he purchased for 500 ETH ($1.3m).
- India’s Finance Minister announced a 30% tax on any income… from the transfer of virtual digital assets.
- Anchorage, the digital assets custodian and the first crypto startup to receive a trust charter from the OCC… is in the final stages of bidding for a 3-year contract with the FDIC.
- Investment firms like Credit Suisse, Jefferies, and others… are hiring crypto analysts to boost their research divisions.
- Fidelity, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, and Charles Schwab… have all recently announced intentions to pursue crypto ETFs.
- The Ethereum blockchain’s most popular application… is the NFT marketplace OpenSea – which recorded an all-time high $4.9B monthly trading volume in Jan.
- Solana, Avalanche and Flow are the fastest-growing ‘Ethereum-killer’ alternatives… offering significantly speedier and cheaper transactions.
- John Bollinger tweeted… “it’s time to start thinking about a bottom in crypto.”
- Institutions now make up 50% of Coinbase’s business.
- Pixel Vault, a decentralized crypto media company focused on NFTs… raised $100M.
- The Olympic Committee is launching a game with NFT prizes… to coincide with the Winter Games.
- Coachella hooked up with FTX US to release their first set of NFTs… including some that come with lifetime passes to the festival.
Last Week:
Monday: At 5 am the DOW futures were down 120, and by 6, they had fallen to -265. One would think that after Friday's huge reversal from blood red to bright green, we'd get some follow through, but that remains to be seen. This week, if AMD (reporting tomorrow) does well with earnings, the market will dive into the chips and NVDA. Today, lots of positioning will be going on. I grabbed some PINS @ $28.70, some SNAP @ $32.35, and some X @ $20.58. If you're looking for a lotto, with a ton of risk, but the chance of a payout – UPST is joining in the festivities today. This Friday's $120 Calls are $1.70. Could UPST soar higher over the next 4 days and turn those $1.70 calls into $5+? Indeed it could. If the techs stay hot, it could indeed go crazy with them. It's a risk play, so if you want to try it = a single contract is $173.
Tuesday: We're getting the rebound bounce from what was a horribly short-term oversold situation last week, but how far can it go? I’m thinking 4,500 on the /ES – maybe further. XOM reported earnings and another big buy back. Companies are still borrowing for pennies, using the proceeds to buy back their own stock – jamming their price higher. UBS released earnings and is trading higher in premarket – which could light up the financial sector.
Wednesday: AMD did real well last night and that lit up the chips this morning. But the bigger driver was GOOGL that announced a 20 for 1 stock split. ADP’s latest release says that January payrolls actually lost 301k jobs. That's not good. After AMD and GOOGL one might have thought the market was going to be putting in a rip roarin' session, so what's the issue with all of this red? The damage that was inflicted during the last two weeks of January, wasn't on a whim. That was real selling, and that was just temporarily reversed on Friday, Monday and Tuesday. Friday was the last day of a horrible month, so we saw everyone ‘window dress’ their portfolio. Then you get ‘new month money’ on Monday and Tuesday. But today that mojo is gone.
Thursday: The Bank of England has halted QE and hiked rates by a quarter point. On our side of the pond, Meta didn't do so well on earnings last night and plunged $75 a share. I thought having the DOW down 9 of 10 days was a bit much last week, and that "we should get a bounce that lasts at least a few days". Is the bounce over, and are we about to fade back down? There’s always a bull-market somewhere. I could like CSCO over $56.16. VALE is nudged tight up against its 200-day moving average at $16.43. If it gets up and over $16.45 I might take a shot at it.
Friday: Okay so the JOBS numbers are out and they say that 467,000 new jobs were created in January. The unemployment rate is now 4%, and the labor participation level is 62.2%. The market is selling off on the news because J. Powell is basing the pace of his rate hikes on employment as well as inflation. So, we now ‘appear’ to have both. This puts more pressure on our FED to move more aggressively. Are the numbers real – probably not. They’re political. They also added 500k jobs to December’s report. This stinks like 3-day old fish.
TW3 (That Was - The Week - That Was):
- Over the past year, the exchanges that were responsible for the most hires were: Coinbase = 1,532, Binance = 1,500, Kraken = 1,035, BlockFi = 520, and Gemini = 402.
- Per JL, Crypto VC funding… totaled $23m in 2012 and $25B in 2021. So, in 10 years, funding increased by a factor of 1,000. Remember, 1 out of every 100 make it. That percentage has never wavered.
- In 2021 vs 2020, the top crypto sectors that have increased hiring are:
o HR: +170%,
o Finance: +93%,
o Marketing: +94%,
o Customer Support: +62%, and
o Management: +31%
Next Week: Goldilocks Markets are Dead:
Market Update:
- Facebook lost 26% of its value last week. That’s equal to losing Costco. In fact, that’s equal to losing any of over 450 of the S&P500 companies. That will drastically influence FB’s ability to attract good tech talent going forward.
- The S&Ps fell 45 points in the last 30 minutes on Friday, as nobody wanted to be long going into this weekend.
- And this is a week when all of the major indices finished slightly higher.
Things are no longer … just right in this market.
- The Goldilocks condition (things are ahhh just right) was created when our FED first implemented QE – 15 years ago. It was then that Bad economic news became Good news for investors.
- When we learned last week that 467,000 new Jobs were created in Jan. – the market sold off. Currently, Good economic news is Bad investment news, and that means that Goldilocks has ‘left the building’.
- Oil is a serious concern as it broke over $93/barrel this week. In every market recession, oil has been a leading indicator.
- Bonds tanked – pushing rates closer to 2%. If / when the 10-year (TNX) exceeds 2%, markets will become more nervous and react violently.
- The VIX is quiet and holding under 25. If / when we cross the 4211 line in the S&Ps – you will see volatility spike once again. With the VVIX (125) above 110 – it tells us that the professionals are worried. Tip #1: If you need hedges, now is the time.
- Is it Wrong to be Long? You need to consider the downside risks in this market, and how you will protect yourself if/when another 10 to 20% correction comes. And yes – CASH – secured by an 8% Nexo / Celsius position = IS a position.
Back to the Volatility Box:
- The Nasdaq has a high probability of dropping into the 14,000 area. The /NQ volatility box extends from about 14,500 down to 14,000. If we break under 14,000, then it’s ‘look-out-below’. Tip #2: Between 14,500 and 14,000 – volatility will begin to rise and shorts will come out of the woodwork.
- I fully anticipate the Nasdaq and the S&Ps dropping into their respective volatility boxes, and that is when markets will begin to turn up the heat on our FED.
- The magic line in Bonds (/ZB = 30-year) is 150. We are currently at 153. Tip #3: any drop below 150 and fear ‘n loathing will hit this market.
- The BEAR is coming. The S&Ps are only off 7%. The Nasdaq is off 13%, but it was off 20% a couple weeks ago. The IWM is down 19%.
- Tip #4: Being Long is close to being Wrong. At minimum sell some CALL Options 100 days out against your Longs.
SPX Expected Move (EM):
- Last Week = EM = $138
- Next Week = EM = $107
Tips:
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- **BitFarm (BITF = $4.00 / in at $4.12)
o Sold Feb, May, Dec ‘22: $5, $7.50 CCs for income,
- **Bitcoin (BTC = $41,400 / in at $4,310)
- CPG (CPG = $6.62 / in at $6.44)
o Sold Jul $7.50 CCs for income,
- Energy Fuels (UUUU = $6.38 / in at $11.29),
o Sold June $11 CCs for income,
- **Ethereum (ETH = $3,000 / in at $310)
- GME – Holding
- **Grayscale Ethereum (ETHE = $23.32 / in @ $13.44)
- **Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC = $27.96 / in @ $9.41)
- Hyliion (HYLN = $4.13 / in @ $6.01)
o Sold April $6 and $7 CCs for income,
- **Loopring (LRC = $0.98 / in at $1.94)
- **Solana (SOL = $114 / in @ $141)
- Uranium Royalty (UROY = $3.18 / in at $4.41)
o Sold April $5 CCs for income,
- Vertex Energy (VTNR = $4.88 / in @ 4.74)
o Sold April $5 CCs for income.
- **Yearn Finance (YFI = $24,300 / in @ 32,850)
** Denotes a crypto-relationship
Thoughts:
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
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