What’s your 100-Day Plan? What would you like to be doing 100 days from now? Are you working toward that? What changes do you need to make to get there? WHAT skill sets do you need, and WHO do you need around you for support? For that to happen, everyday MUST be different than the day before. If you keep focusing on ‘What’s Next’ you will never get around to doing the work necessary to get to day 100. P.S. Happy day 102 of 2021.
Let’s hear it for Open-Source: This week, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with Google over Oracle in a major copyright battle about the “fair use” of code. The ruling is a confirmation to open-source software and has many implications for crypto going forward – because most crypto projects are not protected by copyright. The backstory: Way back when Google was developing Android, they ported over 10,000 lines of code from Java – a programming environment owned by Oracle. Why? Because Google wanted to ensure interoperability between platforms. Oracle argued that this blatant code-reuse was copyright infringement. Unfortunately for ORCL: The court’s decision upholds a forever Silicon Valley tradition that coders: “steal, transform and iterate”. The cut-n-pasting of code is everywhere. Developers can rest easy knowing that the ‘fair-use doctrine’ is safe and well-defended.
The Market:
What’s Up with the Infrastructure Plan? Biden’s $2.3T infrastructure plan (rightly or wrongly) is 25% infrastructure and 75% everything else. For example, it gives:
- $621B for transportation projects including: repairing bridges, modernizing roads, airports, and building a network of 500K electric vehicle chargers.
- $400B for long-term care facilities for the elderly and disabled.
- $300B to boost manufacturing and make the US less China-reliant.
- $213B to build and update affordable housing, $100B to modernize schools, and $100B to bring high-speed broadband to all Americans.
It would be the biggest federal investment program since the 1960’s Space Race, and would be paid for over 15 years by raising corporate taxes from 21% to 28%.
Fixing ZOOM Calls: It’s time to get serious about how we appear in remote meetings. Per SG: It’s clear that the nature of work and meetings has changed, so let’s make sure we ‘look the part’ on those ZOOM calls.
1. Stop looking into a Mirror: Studies show that looking at yourself all day wears you out – mentally. So, in ZOOM, find the button that says ‘HIDE SELF VIEW’ and click it. Here’s a link. You won’t be able to see yourself, but others will be able to see you just fine.
2. Light yourself gently from the Front: Buy a set of LED lights, and set them up 3 feet behind and to either side of your computer screen. Never light yourself from behind. LED lights are incredibly cheap, and here’s a link.
3. Start making Eye Contact: When you’re staring at your computer screen and talking, it appears to others that you’re looking slightly downward. The fix is to use: the far superior camera on your iPhone and/or iPad, your Mac, and an app called: Reincubate Camo. You will need a small tripod for your iPhone but this set-up will allow you to make contact and appear more genuine to your audience.
The entire setup, costs less than $50 – which is ‘peanuts’ compared to the amount of fatigue you’ll save, and how many more people will actually listen to what you’re saying.
InfoBits:
- GameStop raised $1B in cash… with an additional equity offering. GME only dropped 2.3% on the news.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose by 916,000 in March… while the unemployment rate declined to 6%. It was the fastest job growth since August 2020. Gains were felt in leisure, hospitality, and construction.
- Argo AI, a self-driving startup… is weighing plans to go public as it comes closer to commercializing its technology. Argo AI has raised $3.6B to date from Ford, which plans to roll out robo-taxis and driverless delivery pods next year.
- Per HL: “The geniuses at Credit Suisse… just took a $4.7B hit because cheating is hard. It boggles the mind how many awful things Credit Suisse has done over the years, but one look at their stock chart acts as an easy reminder.”
- GM confirmed that its EV Chevrolet Silverado truck… will be built in their Factory ZERO plant in Michigan in 2022, and have a +400-mile range.
- Morgan Stanley dumped about $5B in Archegos’ stock… the NIGHT BEFORE the massive ‘fire sale’. The buyers were smaller hedge funds trying to get in on the Archegos action. It pays to know people in high places.
- Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPM) thinks: “We’re almost over the pandemic hump, with a 2-year post-pandemic economic boom waiting for us at the end. But banks have enormous competitive threats – coming from virtually every angle, including Fintech and Big Tech!”
- Amazon now controls more than 10% of US digital ad market share… inching closer to Google and Facebook.
- Topps, the company famous for baseball cards and Bazooka candy… is going public via SPAC at a $1.3B valuation.
- More than half of older millennials… with student debt say that their school loans were NOT worth it.
- Survey Reveals 50% of the hospitality industry… has CLOSED due to COVID.
- “What me worry?”… says Alfred E. Neuman as he watches the SPX close at another all-time high and the VIX hit its lowest level since Feb 2020.
- TuSimple is IPO’ing with an $8B valuation: TuSimple is developing highly automated self-driving semi-trucks via a partnership w/ Navistar.
- One day you’re a billionaire, and the next – you’re NOT: If you’re Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital, it happened in spectacular fashion. On March 26th, he defaulted on loans, blew up 5x leveraged bets, and wreaked financial havoc.
- Ikea is being accused of running “a system of espionage” in France: We're waiting for their next spy novel: The Couch That Came in From the Cold.
- Facebook did NOT notify over 530m users… that their personal details were hacked and made public, and have NO plans to do so. If you’re still on Facebook – you must bank at Wells Fargo as well.
- Snap has acquired an app called Screenshop… it recommends clothes users can buy based upon photos uploaded into their app.
- Amazon defeated the unionization drive… at an Alabama warehouse.
Crypto-Bytes:
- Grayscale Investments is 100% committed… to converting its flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund.
- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has entered the 1st phase… of its digital currency pilot, which will study its commercial and monetary impact.
- The Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs said… they’re considering blockchain and digital alternatives to SWIFT. Fearing their access to the global payments network may be cut off as tensions between Russia, EU & US ramp up.
- X-SEC Chair Jay Clayton said… “Bitcoin has the status as a non-security at the SEC, but new domestic and international regulations should be expected.”
- The Sacramento Kings are set to become the 1st… major sports franchise to offer a bitcoin payment option for all players and staff.
- The largest exchange in India… just launched the nation’s first NFT (non-fungible token) platform, amid a period of legal uncertainty.
- Mark Cuban-backed Nifty’s has hired Olta Andoni… as chief legal officer to wade through complex copyright & money laundering laws – posed by NFTs.
- Coinbase reported earnings before next week’s IPO: The crypto exchange has 56m users and 6.1m monthly transacting users. Their Q1 revenues (in $’s) grew 900% from last year, and will debut under the ticker = COIN.
- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said: “The legal and regulatory status of crypto-currencies is among the serious emerging issues that need to be dealt with.”
- Ripple won a court ruling Tuesday… giving it access to the regulator’s internal communications. Ripple hopes to get the investigation thrown out by arguing the SEC was pre-disposed to believing XRP was a currency.
- USD is currently used in 88% of foreign exchange trades… with the yuan being used in only 4%. China is positioning the digi-yuan for international use. It will be an attractive alternative for countries, and for those who don't wish to pay fees when they transfer money abroad.
- Last week Altcoins outgained Bitcoin: Bitcoin fell by ~2% with large-cap assets Binance Coin and XRP rising ~11% and ~58% respectively.
- Ripple CTO suggested… that rumors of an XRP relisting by Coinbase “may have triggered some of its 69% upward movement since April 1st.”
- MicroStrategy has purchased another 253 BTC. The firm now holds about 91,579 BTC worth ~$5.17B, on a total spend of $2.23B.
- State Street, the second-oldest bank in the U.S. and with $3.1T in assets… will start trading crypto in the near future.
- Peter Thiel said… “Bitcoin could be the ‘Chinese financial weapon’ used to dethrone the U.S. dollar's global monetary reserve status.”
- Kraken posted a blowout Q1… and is considering going public via direct listing in 2022.
- Coinbase has joined the DeFi Alliance… a group that provides mentorship and funding for early-stage tech teams working in the $49B DeFi sector – that could make centralized exchanges obsolete.
- Fewer retail players are using their $1.4k stimulus checks to buy crypto… this time around.
Last Week:
Last week, FED-head Kaplan mentioned that he wouldn’t be against removing some financial accommodation if the economy strengthened. BOOM! In a minute, with just the sniff of a cutback in stimulus, our markets were lower. Kaplan may have rattled them a bit, but everyone knows that if they truly yank the punch bowl – we’re in for a 40% correction that will make your head spin. Does our FED want that? At some point, my answer will be yes. There’s going to come a time when they’re ready to usher in their ‘reset’ – and that’s when our FED will yank the rug on the current system.
When the Fed released their March minutes, they said that their easy money policy will stay in place until certain economic outcomes are achieved. Which means more money printing, more yield curve controlling, and more Central Bank buying of everything that’s not nailed down.
Until our FED is ready for this to end, we can dip, wiggle, and correct – but a full-blown crash or nasty pull back won’t happen. So, as upside down as things are, we should still go higher. Get in while you can, but that’s why I (personally) am using covered calls to secure income and to keep my risk under control.
Marijuana’s Coming… and Everyone Knows It!
- Governor Cuomo signed… New York’s recreational cannabis legalization bill into law, and similarly the New Mexico legislature successfully voted MJ legal.
- California Cannabis beverage sales… increased 100% YoY in January, and cannabis drinks are selling at 6X the rate they were just 3 years ago.
- Despite TWICE the tax rate for cannabis in New Jersey… New York (by 2025) should be the nation’s 2nd largest MJ market – behind California.
- In California, CANN is a hit beverage… and has quickly become the largest beverage brand in California. They recently struck a deal with GTI to expand into new U.S. markets – including Illinois.
- Florida-based medical cannabis company Trulieve… is spending $60m to buy more MJ dispensaries in Pennsylvania.
- Cannabis beverages are… far more popular with women than men, and the female Gen-X consumer is the top buyer of cannabis drinks.
- Illinois adult-use retail sales increased 24% MOM in March… making yet another all-time-high.
- Parallel enters Illinois via 6 dispensary acquisition… for $100m.
- What do you get when… (a) weed-loving rapper Snoop Dogg, (b) right-wing billionaire Charles Koch, and (c) criminal justice reform advocate Weldon Angelos walk into a Zoom room = The Cannabis Freedom Alliance. A new coalition that could change the dynamics of the marijuana legalization debate.
Next Week: Who Buys at All-Time-Highs?
Who buys at All-Time-Highs?
- Retail Investors: NOPE – the retail investor is too smart for that.
- Shorts Squeezes: MAYBE – with options Friday coming in a week.
- Retirement Funds: ABSOLUTELY – they allocate $’s with no regard to timing.
- Call Buyers: YES – and the Gamma Squeeze would force market makers to buy the stock to remain neutral.
- Bona Fide Hedgers: SURE – but they do it for a living.
The SPX and Q’s smashed through their Expected Moves (EM), but the Russell Small-Cap Index ended the week lower, and this has me worried.
Bonds have clearly lost their MoJo. If they break above 158 (sending interest rates lower) – expect the market to respond favorably. However, if they break below the 153 level, markets will not appreciate significantly higher interest rates.
A large VIX Call Spread Buyer may not be a bearish forecast. A large July, $25 / $40 Call spread trade in the VIX occurred last week (see below). Normally, someone buying this may VIX calls would signify a belief that this market is moving lower. However, it’s my belief that this buyer had a correspondingly large PUT position in the VIX, and was simply ‘hedging his bet’ because the SKEW and the cost of the options were in their favor.
As much as the economy is still barely hanging on, as evidenced by yet another week of +700,000 people signing up for unemployment – the market is doing fine. Chairman Powell said that they’re looking at instituting ‘Yield Curve Control’ to make sure that 10 year rates don’t get out of hand. Sec. Yellen said: “We need more cash infusions”, and FED member Kashkari said that he’d be comfy with 4% inflation. Add all that up and even if the stock market wanted to organically fade off – it couldn’t.
Next week starts ‘Earnings Season’: I dislike earnings season because of the amount of fuzzy math that has been allowed to leak into the system. Secondly, you never know whether The Street is going to accept the earnings and make them a darling – or if they’re going to dump them. My guess is that they’re going to hype the earnings, so that it’s not as evident that it’s FED money sending things higher. They’ll say stocks are moving higher on great earnings, and things look great. It’s all market food, but yesterday’s market vitamins are turning into steroids in a hurry.
Tips:
I’m watching:
- GRTS = Gritstone Oncology = $9.10 / share
o Sell May $7.50 Covered Call for $2.32 net net $6.78 31% / month
o Sell May $10 Covered Call for $1.42 net net $7.68 14% / month
o Liquidity?
- OCX = Oncocyte Corp Com. = $5.32 / share
o Sell May $5 Covered Call for $0.95 net net $4.37 13% / month
- IRIX = Iridex Corp. = $7.30 / share
o Sell May $7.50 Covered Call for $0.92 net net $6.38 12% / month
o Liquidity?
HODL’s: (Hold On for Dear Life)
- Bitcoin (BTC = $59,750 / in at $4,310)
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH = $690 / in at $170)
- CTI BioPharma (CTIC = $2.58)
o Sold Apr. $3 CCs for income.
- Electramericcanica Vehs (SOLO = $4.74)
o Sold Apr. $5 CCs for income.
- Express Inc (EXPR = $3.79)
o Sold Apr. $4 and $5 CCs for income.
- Ethereum (ETH = $2,150 / in at $310)
- Grayscale Ethereum (ETHE = $20.47 / in @ $13.44)
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC = $49.65 / in @ $9.41)
- Hyliion (HYLN = $10.72 / in @ $0.32)
- Infinity Pharma (INFI = $3.31)
o Sold Apr. $3 and $4 CCs for income.
- Inovio Pharma (INO = $9.72)
o Sold Apr. $10 CCs for income.
- Litecoin (LTC = $250 / in @ $191)
- Opko Health (OPK = $4.18)
o Sold Apr. $4 CCs for income.
- Sandstorm Gold (SAND = $7.59)
o Sold Apr. $7 CCs for income.
- SOS Limited (SOS = $5.25)
o Sold Apr. $5 and $7.50 CCs for income.
- VisLink Tech (VISL = $2.96)
o Sold Apr. $2.50 and $5 CCs for income.
- VivoPower (VVPR = $9.78)
o Sold the August $12.50 CCs for income,
Thoughts:
Follow me on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.
Please be safe out there!
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