RF's Financial News

Sunday, April 19, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 4-19-2015

This Week in Barrons – 4-19-2015:

Thoughts:

Dear Ms. Yellen:

I’m sensing a global uneasiness.

- Last week, Greece went to the IMF to ask for a delay in their payment schedule and was immediately denied.

- Big banks like Goldman and Citi beat their earnings estimates, but on lowered revenues.

- Fundamental economic reports such as: initial jobless claims, housing starts, and the Empire new orders index have been terrible.

- Data out of China reflects a marked economic slowdown.

- And Obama is pushing a new retirement program.

With all of this severe economic discontinuity, what do you do with your money? Do you just leave it in the system and pray nothing happens, or do you take it out? And if you take it out, what do you do with it? Personally, I'm not a big fan of 401k's because of their outrageous management fees, and their stock portion is often NOT covered by any FDIC insurance. I personally advise people to contribute enough money to get the employer match, and (since a ‘money market account’ is considered a deposit account) use the ‘money market’ option in the 401k instead of the ‘stock option’ for the time being.

In difficult times, I suggest that everyone attempt to pay off his or her own home mortgage. For example: if you have 200k in your 401k, and the balance on your mortgage was 170k – I would pay off the mortgage and free myself from the bank. First, most mortgages are ‘demand notes’, which the bank could call in at any time. Second, most people’s ability to pay off their mortgage depends upon their having reliable employment, which often comes into question in tough times. And thirdly, if things really get ugly, there is a real chance that our government could ‘temporarily’ confiscate our 401k’s. There is virtually no chance that our government would confiscate our real estate as a result of any economic or financial collapse. Putting this all together, I would rather pay off my mortgage when I could – rather than when I had to.

Ms. Yellen, our entire economic system is built on trust. I trust that when I put $5,000 into the bank – that I can get $5,000 out of the bank. I trust that when I send money to my 401K – that it is always going to be there. In a perfect ‘Leave It to Beaver’ world, that would be true. But what happens if we enter a greedy, evil world where fraud, theft and scams are prevalent? I never want to get to a place where I truly believed such institutions as our bank deposits or stock holdings could be taken from us, but I think we're pretty close to that right now. And, I think we all need to ponder the reality.

The Market:

Last week market regulators in China announced two things: One, they are going to get tougher about people using the shadow banking system to finance stock purchases. And two, the programs used to ‘short’ Chinese stocks were expanded to allow more stocks to be ‘short-able’.

Last Thursday evening, China announced some of the worst economic numbers in about 6 years. China is such an important importer and exporter, that if their economy is slowing – everyone will pay the price. But potentially the worst news of all was that all of the Bloomberg terminals around the globe went ‘dark’ early Friday morning. Allow me to explain. If you are a money institution, you probably use the ‘Bloomberg’ trading platform – which connects you to the world via news, messages, and trades. The platform costs approximately $20k per platform per year, and there are thousands of them in use around the world. All of those platforms ‘went down’ early Friday morning and caused immediate worry by all of the institutional traders.

So between the lousy numbers out of China and the Bloomberg glitch, the market was in sad shape on Friday. Adding insult to injury, there is mounting evidence that Greece is about to default, and could be forced to ‘leave the Eurozone’. So Friday was a complete washout with the DOW down (at times) over 300 points, and the S&P under its 50-day moving average. I thought that the market would struggle with its all-time highs, but not fall for 350 points. I didn’t see that one coming.

So, does that mean that we are in correction mode? It could be. But remember: (a) It's April – and April is historically a good month for the market, and (b) for the past 6 years, buyers have come in and ‘bought the dip’ each time this market has been hit really hard.

If I come in on Monday and there is no stabilization, and we continue to fall – the next stop would be around S&P 2060, then down to 2040. If we lose S&P 2040, we could be looking at the beginning of the first ugly correction in over 6 years.

This market has come one heck of a long way over the last 6 years. The bull is tired, and all of the manipulations and QE's have run their course. This is a desperate time for the market, especially with some of the things we see coming later in the year concerning China and the IMF. Therefore, if the market continues to bleed this week and touches 2040, it could time to start selling. If (however) the S&P bounces back above 2084 on Monday (it’s 50-day moving average) – we could quickly forget Friday's plunge. It is nothing short of ‘interesting’ out there.

TIPS:

The following chart is showing the technical indicators favoring an upward movement in the S&P and DOW this coming week.

Currently looking at:

- S&P (SPY), NASDAQ (QQQ), and Russell (IWM) shorts and puts

I’m currently holding:

- GLD – BOUGHT MAY Call Debit Spread: +112 / -120,

- NUGT – BOUGHT MAY Calls: +10, and

- ORCL – BOUGHT MAY / JUNE Call Calendar: $45

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Creativity = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373017/0d0c374c28

Investing = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373016/a5e84dd610

Marketing = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373015/d7237d026d

Sales = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373014/0e44b43962

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, April 12, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 4-12-2015

This Week in Barrons – 4-12-2015:

“Statistics are a lot like a bikini - what they reveal is eye opening, but what they hide is essential.” Mark Puliafico

Thoughts:

Dear Ms. Yellen:

At the last G20 meeting, the nations (including the U.S.) modified the rules concerning what is and what is not a bank deposit. The new rule classifies ‘bank deposits’ as ‘bank holdings’, and that directly impacts who is entitled to these funds if and when a bank fails. That means that the moment you make a deposit, the money belongs to the bank first and the depositor second. In other words, if and when a bank fails the senior debt holders of a bank get paid first – virtually guaranteeing depositors never seeing 100% of their own money. The scarier part is that if banks were forced to use ‘mark to market’ accounting, their real estate holdings alone would result in a significant number of bank insolvencies. Therefore, under this new rule, insolvent banks could use their deposits first (to help pay back their debts) – leaving depositors with virtually nothing. Ms. Yellen, is your name on this G20 resolution?

Lately, over 50 of our ‘so called’ allies have rushed to join the Asian infrastructure bank being run by China. Our allies realize that China is going to be carrying a lot more weight globally, and their fear is that the U.S. dollar will go into a ‘free fall’ prior to official global reset. Keith Neumeyer (CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp.) stated the other day: “With the central banks changing from selling to buying gold (which is quite unique in our lifetime), a reset of the financial industry is coming. We’re seeing governments accumulate the metals because there is some kind of back-room deal being made. The gold accumulation that I see is (a) outside the normal system, and (b) an accumulation of the physical metal.” Ms. Yellen, my question is, when the reset hits, will it be the people that have the physical gold and silver that will win?

Lastly, I remember some of Harry Truman’s famous quotes: “The buck stops here”, and “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen”, and finally “It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.” But my favorite Truman quote is: “Just give me a one-handed economist. Because all of mine say, on one hand I would do this, and on the other hand I would do that." Mr. Truman – I feel your pain. As of late, two different FOMC members (on the same day) proclaimed (a) that interest rate increases are right around the corner, and (b) rate increases may not happen at all this year. The fundamental problem is ‘not’ which one publically spoke last, but rather not allowing capitalism to resolve the issue. The Fed’s ‘zero interest rate policy’ (ZIRP) is replacing ‘hard work’ with subsidies that demand ‘less work’ and more dependence upon government subsidies. ‘Do-It-Yourself’ motivation is a memory, as individuals are becoming solely reliant upon the government for their needs (food, shelter, healthcare, cell phones, and money). Ms. Yellen, it’s your job to change the U.S. back from being the ‘Land of Free Stuff’ – to the ‘Land of Opportunity’.

The Market:

Factually:

- Earnings season began this week with Alcoa (AA) beating its already lowered earnings estimates with revenues that were also ‘below estimates’. Remember the pattern of beting ‘lowered earnings estimates’ (via accounting) with ‘fewer sales’, as it will be repeated throughout this earnings season.

- On Friday GE came out with a $50B buyback. To put that in perspective, February was a record month for stock buybacks at $100B, and GE is going to do half of that by itself. To do the buyback, GE is going to sell most of GE Capital – which contributed 42% of GE’s profits for the past 5 years. So cutting to the chase, GE is selling the division that made half of their corporate profits, in order to keep their stock price higher in the short term.

- In March the U.S. created 50,000 real jobs, but last week over 4 TIMES that many people (200,000+) signed up for ‘First Time’ unemployment benefits.

- 57% of Americans have $0 set away for retirement.

- The NY Times reported that the average American is now worth 36% LESS than they were a decade ago.

- The fastest growing jobs sectors are retail sales clerks and cashiers. How well can you say: “Do you want fries with that?”

Last week I said that I would sell many of my long positions if the S&P’s closed below 2056, and that I would increase my holdings if the S&P’s closed above 2086. Thursday’s session ended with an S&P close of 2091, and on Friday they followed through with a close of 2102. The next milestone is 2108 – which isn't far away. If we can get over that, there is little question that we will challenge the all time S&P high of 2117. I think we will probably get there; however, breaking through and reaching even higher is going to be a lot tougher.

This coming week, the floodgates of earnings reports will open, and we will get to hear the confessions from hundreds of companies. Companies will ‘proforma’ and ‘one time charge off’ their way to accounting glory. The real story will lie within their revenue numbers. You see, companies can manipulate earnings, but it’s tougher to manipulate revenues / sales. Buying back their own stock and using non-GAAP reporting are two mechanisms companies use to ‘account’ themselves into higher earnings. But watch a company’s revenue numbers for Quarter over Quarter (QOQ) and Year over Year (YOY) comparisons. When a corporation is showing QOQ and YOY revenue declines, that will be your ‘red flag’.

I think we will get to the all time highs. I am not so certain that we will get past them in any meaningful way. The top in the S&P that was set on March 2^nd could end up serving as a market ‘top’ for a long time. In the meantime, I will lean long and pick up some swing trades, but I won't overstay my welcome. This is not the time to buy and hold things.

TIPS:

The following chart is showing the technical indicators favoring an upward movement in the S&P and DOW this coming week. Also, the VIX (volatility index) is currently low (12.58). It’s tough for the market to ‘rollover’ with the VIX this low. Therefore, this week we could see a steady ‘grind higher’ into Friday’s monthly options expiration.

Currently looking at:

- Mosaic (MOS) and Potash (POT) to the upside,

- Carmax (KMX) and TripAdvisor (TRIP) to the downside,

- Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) to the upside – buying a Diagonal for a 5 cent credit: - APR4 190 / + MAY1 192.5, and

- Sam Adams (SAM) – thinking of selling an Iron Condor: + 220 / - 230 to – 310 / + 320.

I’m currently holding:

- AAPL – SOLD APR Iron Condor: + 119 / - 121 to -131 / + 133

- DUST – SOLD APR2 Calls: -17

- GLD – BOUGHT MAY Call Debit Spread: +112 / -120

- HD – BOUGHT APR Call: +112, and SOLD APR2 Put Credit Spread: -114 / + 113

- KR – BOUGHT APR – Call Butterfly: +75 / -77.5 / -80

- LL – SOLD APR – Put Credit Spread: -30 / +28, then SOLD APR – Call Credit Spread: -35 / +40

- NUGT – BOUGHT MAY Calls: +10

- ORCL – BOUGHT MAY / JUNE Call Calendar: $45

- RUT – BOUGHT May Call Butterfly: +1170 / -1240 / +1300

- SYK – SOLD APR – Put Credit Spread: +85 / -87.5 and Buy Butterfly: +95 / -97.5 / +100

- URI – SOLD APR – Iron Condor: +80 / -82.5 to -95 / +97.5

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Creativity = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373017/0d0c374c28

Investing = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373016/a5e84dd610

Marketing = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373015/d7237d026d

Sales = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373014/0e44b43962

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@culbertsons.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, April 5, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 4-5-2015

This Week in Barrons – 4-5-2015:

Thoughts:

Dear Ms. Yellen:

This week I listened to a fascinating talk on our economy given by a panel of economists. The discussion focused around ‘the light’ that I’m seeing at the end of the tunnel – and whether it is actually one of an on-coming train. And this train would produce a pro-longed economic depression that could start within the next 6 months. I was wondering how many of their points you agree with?

- (1) Our Debt is destroying our economy. After WWII, for every dollar’s worth of government debt, our economy experienced $2.41 worth of growth. Currently, due to the staggering amount of our debt, our economic growth has dropped to 3 cents on every dollar, causing our growth to be stifled by the enormity of our debt.

- (2) Our Misery Index is too high. The Misery Index is a number created to measure the amount of economic suffering on a population. It is currently at 32.89. During the Great Depression it measured only 27. A high Misery Index normally precedes recessions. And unfortunately our FED is no longer in a position to bailout our banks because it only has $56B of capital reserves remaining – to support over $4.3T in questionable, unstable banking liabilities.

- (3) Our stock market is over-priced when compared to our productivity. One could make a case for the value of all of country’s public stocks representing (at some level) the fundamental value of that economy. Currently the ratio of the total value of the stock market – divided by GDP is 203%. Prior to the 2008 recession this ratio was 183%, and prior to the ‘Dot Com’ implosion it was 204%.

The economists were making the point that we are heading for a stock market correction, and the loss of wealth this time could exceed $100T. But every severe stock market correction requires a catalyst, and here are a few that they suggested:

- (1) An attack on the U.S. Treasury market: From October 2014 to March 2015 when Russia and China were dumping U.S. Treasuries, our FED bought them (via Belgium) in order to stabilize our economy. But the FED is currently leveraged 77:1 and is (by all measures) ‘tapped out’. What if nations continue to dump U.S. Treasuries? If no one buys them, then U.S. interest rates will rise – sinking our stock market.

- (2) A failing ‘Petro-Dollar’: Because of our strained relationship with Saudi Arabia, they have started selling more oil in exchange for gold or for currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Russia (one of the world’s largest energy exporters), has said: “It’s time to discontinue the dollar as the key reserve currency.” If others follow this pace, and drop the U.S. dollar as their global reserve currency, then the dollar’s value will fall, and cause U.S. interest rates to rise.

- (3) A fragile Chinese banking system: As the banking system in China continues to stretch, a highly leveraged, ‘shadow banking’ system is evolving. Shadow banking has grown over 4,067% since 2005, and is approaching $8T in value. China has many ‘ghost’ cities waiting for inhabitants. If these ‘ghost’ cities do not soon become inhabited, then housing prices will collapse and (along with the ‘shadow banking system’) create a fundamental ‘ponzi scheme’ that could bring down the entire Chinese economy.

- (4) The IMF’s planned replacement of the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In the case of a global financial panic, the world’s Central Banks would be required to re-liquefy their financial markets. Unfortunately our FED is ‘tapped out’ and leveraged 77:1. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) is only leveraged 3:1 and has the only ‘clean balance sheet’ out there. The IMF would print SDRs (Special Drawing Rights), declare them the world’s reserve currency, and effectively replace the U.S. Dollar in that category.

Ms. Yellen – the amount, frequency, and degree of severity of these elements seem to be growing. Would you agree that – that light at the end of the tunnel is truly one of an ‘on-coming’ train?

The Market:

A report surfaced this week showing that of the 102 companies that have pre-announced earnings, only 16 companies have raised their forward guidance while 86 have lowered theirs. That is the worst ratio for an earnings season in 7 years. Historically April has been a good month for the market; however, this time around we have: (a) lousy economic reports, (b) corporate earnings estimates that will be missed to the downside, and (c) a collapsing DOW transportation index (IYT). Adding this all up, this market has a lot of work to do to turn itself around, and create a sustained move higher.

Our economy has been supported for years by Central bank interventions, debt increases, corporate buybacks, and Non-GAAP / Pro-forma accounting. Monday, the Atlanta Fed announced that their estimate for 1^st Quarter GDP was a mere 0.2%. The Kansas Fed and the Dallas Fed reported their lowest economic numbers in 2 and 6 years respectively. Recently, the manufacturing outlook in Texas turned negative for the first time in two years, and for the first time in 6 years the energy sector lost jobs.

Traditionally the first week in April is fair, the second week is rotten, and the third and fourth weeks are pretty good. The explanation given is: (a) the first week is new monthly and quarterly money, (b) the second week is people selling stocks and bonds to raise money to pay their taxes, and (c) the third and fourth weeks are people spending their tax refunds. Therefore, next week is not historically all that great of a week for stocks. And with the poor ‘Non-Farm Payrolls’ report that came in on Friday, the markets will indeed need to keep the S&P index above the March lows of 2,040 in order to try and save the month. If we were to lose the 2,040 area, then I think we are in for a fairly hefty market correction. But as long as the S&P remains above that level, we should be range bound between 2,040 and the March high of 2,108.

But as the disclaimer says: “Past performance is not indicative of future results". April does not have to turn around in the 3^rd and 4^th weeks. We need to let the market prove itself by passing technical milestones before acting too bravely this coming week. The market simply feels like there is a great ‘shaking out’ coming, and if we’re not prepared – we too will be ‘shaken apart’.

TIPS:

I would be remiss if I didn’t take a moment to reflect upon the absolute disaster that was Friday’s ‘Non-Farm Payroll’ report. The estimates were for job gains of 245,000. The report showed that we only gained 126,000 jobs. But wait, it gets worse. Almost 60% of those 126,000 jobs (72,000) were fake – and simply added using the ‘birth/death’ model. It gets even worse: the number of people ‘NOT in the workforce’ has grown to 93,173,000. That is the first time we've ever seen that number over 93 million. Of course the ‘spinmeisters’ blamed the weather and had us look at the averages, but with 60 of 69 economic releases missing estimates, and 86 of 102 companies lowering their 2015 outlook – it’s not that big of a stretch to say that our economy is hanging by a fraying thread.

As a further cautionary signal, in the year 2000 (45 days prior to the crash and with the NASDAQ making new highs) the transportation index (IYT) sold off. Just this week the transportation index broke its 2^nd ATR (average true range) to the downside – signaling a potential, larger market downside correction. When looking at specific stocks that are poised for a downside move, look no further than: Zillow (Z), Federal Express (FDX), and Alibaba (BABA). Also, often accompanying a down market is the movement of Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV) to the upside. You could even look toward the gold miners moving higher and play them via NUGT.

I’m currently holding:

- AAPL – SOLD APR Iron Condor: + 119 / - 121 to -131 / + 133

- BABA – BOUGHT APR Put Debit Spread: +87 / -81

- DUST – SOLD APR2 Calls: -17

- GLD – BOUGHT MAY Call Debit Spread: +112 / -120

- HD – BOUGHT APR Call: +112, and SOLD APR2 Put Credit Spread: -114 / + 113

- KR – BOUGHT APR – Call Butterfly: +75 / -77.5 / -80

- LL – SOLD APR – Put Credit Spread: -30 / +28, then SOLD APR – Call Credit Spread: -35 / +40

- NUGT – BOUGHT MAY Calls: +10

- ORCL – BOUGHT MAY / JUNE Call Calendar: $45

- RUT – BOUGHT May Call Butterfly: +1170 / -1240 / +1300

- SLV – BOUGHT May Call Debit Spread: +15 / -17.5

- SPX – SOLD APR – Iron Condor: +2010 / -2015 to -2160 / +2165

- SYK – SOLD APR – Put Credit Spread: +85 / -87.5 and Buy Butterfly: +95 / -97.5 / +100

- URI – SOLD APR – Iron Condor: +80 / -82.5 to -95 / +97.5

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

Creativity = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373017/0d0c374c28

Investing = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373016/a5e84dd610

Marketing = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373015/d7237d026d

Sales = http://vimeo.com/user8991651/review/105373014/0e44b43962

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.