This
Week in Barrons – 8-11-2013
“To Taper, or NOT To Taper … that is the Question.”
The word on the street is that on September
18th we will see the Federal Reserve begin to taper (i.e. – to cut
back on the amount of money that they’re printing to purchase U.S. Treasuries
and toxic assets from banks). I will go on record as saying there is
‘nothing’ more important to your portfolio than whether they taper or not.
This entire market/economy has been built on nothing but Fed money –
pushed out to the 21 primary dealers – who in turn take large portions of that
money and plow it right into the stock market. Our economy is
experiencing ‘junkie growth’ not ‘organic growth’. Nowhere is the effect of the $85B per month
as evident as in the stock market.
The stock market has risen
dramatically since the Fed began printing in last November. Often a rising market equates to a strong
economy, but (in this case) that is far from the truth. If you compare year-over-year S&P
earnings, you will find that earnings have decreased 3%. This market is based upon a TRILLION dollars
a year being printed, and jammed into it on a daily basis. The Fed has hinted for months now that they
would like to ‘taper off’ the amount of money they print. Let’s look at
both sides of the tapering argument.
Why would you ‘NOT’ taper?
-
The
economy stinks, as 78% of the jobs recovery is based upon part time, service
workers. (FYI – Considering inflation, a
person making minimum wage back in 1967 would be ‘wealthier’ than someone making
$10/hour today.)
-
U.S. savings
rates are terrible. We’re presently
saving at a 4.4% rate, and historically we’ve been closer to 6.7%. Europe is saving at a 12% rate, with Asia being
north of 20%.
-
Millions
of individuals are trying to retire, but do not have the means.
-
The
Government is issuing record amounts of food stamps and disability checks.
-
Government
and Environmental red tape have effectively ruined the small businessman – the
first 6 months of 2013 showed the smallest number of businesses created since
WWII.
-
Housing
is crippled (with interest rates rising), and millions are still ‘upside down’ on their mortgages.
-
Adding
this all together, you come away with the idea that they cannot taper. If the Fed has injected TRILLIONS into the
economy (in 5 years), and this is the best we have to show for it – then if
they do not taper – they need to be ready for a fairly steep decline in the
stock market and corresponding economic activity.
Therefore, at first blush,
potentially all of this talk about tapering is simply fear mongering – in order
that the DOW see 20K this year. In fact
we’ve heard from the Fed on numerous occasions that when the data suggests
enough strength, they would remove the accommodation. And it’s been this
type of talk that has been effective in keeping the ‘excess froth’ out of the
markets.
Why would you taper?
-
#1 –
The Fed would stop printing money if it has decided that the global economies
are simply too corrupt and debt ridden to be saved, and it’s time to do a
global ‘reset’.
-
#2 –
Or, with The Ben Bernanke leaving as head of the Fed next year, he could be
willing to give the incoming head some ‘wiggle room’ to play with. For example, if they were to taper, and the economy
/ market sags, the new Fed head can then boost the QE right back up and make it
look like a rescue.
-
#3 –
But let’s consider yet a different reason to taper:
For months the economic reports have
been poor. In fact, in May the reports
were so horrid that even the ultra-bulls were suggesting that the Fed couldn't
be serious about tapering because the economy was so soggy. Those reports have somehow changed, in a big
way. In the past few weeks I’ve seen
some of the ‘prettiest’ economic reports I have in years. From manufacturing (ISM) – which was outrageously
strong, to the trade deficit report – I’m seeing better reports all the way
around. Something has changed, because
the underlying data is still the same:
-
Unemployment
did drop to 7.4%, but virtually all of the new jobs created are minimum wage, part-time
service work.
-
GDP did
increase by 1.7% last quarter – but only after completely changing the
calculation – otherwise the number may not have been ‘positive’ at all.
So why in May were we falling off a
cliff, and in July we’re the ‘Roaring 20’s’? Is the Fed using the ‘pretty data’ to justify
tapering, and crush the market? Are they
doing it to create ‘headroom’ for the next Fed head? Are they doing it for a ‘global reset’?
What if they know that we're close to some real economic damage, and want to
distance themselves from it? In other
words, if you're a central banker – your ultimate goal is to remain in control,
be king of the hill, and keep other bankers in a position of elitism. So, what happens if after all these
TRILLIONS, the economy simply dies? We
would blame the bankers. But what if
they play the “We tried, but the Government wouldn’t help us card” – first?
Several times in the past year, The
Ben Bernanke has said (to Congress) that he needed Congress and the Fed working
together to help rebuild the economy.
And all Congress did was to bicker and do nothing. Benji asked for
some solid policy agreements from the administration, and got nothing. Could it be that the Fed is willing to tell
everyone that: “We pushed as hard as we could.
Congress hasn’t done a single thing to help us. They fought us all the way. We have to reduce our accommodation to remain
solvent, keep inflation tame, and if the economy sags even further, it is Congress
you have to blame".
I believe the Fed could be using
‘tapering’ as a scare tactic to force our Congress to actually do something. Maybe the plan is to cut QE, watch the
markets fall and the economy stall, and then scream at Congress that they were
warned.
Therefore the bottom line is: If they do some form of taper, it is because
they have an agenda to promote, as everyone knows that the economy is not
really strong enough to survive a taper. For gold and silver, if they taper – both
metals could get hit fairly hard. But
like stocks, if they don't taper, I could see September into October being very
strong for the metals. If we do get a
taper and the gold and silver markets take a huge hit, then I will be a buyer
on the dip.
The Market:
To quote a line from the old TV show
Lost in Space: “Danger Will Robinson - Danger!” Right now the stock market is flashing warning
signals. First and foremost is the
argument whether to taper or not? The
other elements brewing are technical in nature – called “Hindenburg” Omens. They are a group of technical factors (taken
together) that often signal that something "bad" is coming.
Such as:
-
The daily
number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows are
both greater than or equal to 2.8%.
-
On the
same day: the NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago,
and the McClellan Oscillator is negative.
-
And the
number of new 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52-week
lows.
If you believe in stats, we find
that within 40 days of a Hindenburg Omen there is a 77% chance of a 5% drop, a 41%
chance of a panic sell off, and a 24% chance of a major stock market crash. There has never been a market crash without a
Hindenburg Omen, but there have been many Hindenburg Omens that didn't produce
any drops. The only reason to pay
attention to this one – is that we’ve had 4 of them in the past week. Beyond this, technically we are forming a
‘megaphone’ pattern in the market – often called the ‘jaws of death.’ This pattern (if it holds) always resolves
itself by the market crashing over 50%.
Adding up the size of the run up,
the increased chances of a taper, the lousy technical indicators, and you have
the ingredients for a market that is struggling to hold up. Unfortunately, we have 6 weeks of this ‘taper
on, taper off’ argument to wade through before we ultimately find out their
decision. Therefore, I expect an
increase in volatility in the weeks ahead.
We’ve
entered a time where the only thing that truly matters is the Fed and their
printing press. Forget the talking heads
on TV telling you how great things are, and how we don't need the Fed. Ask Detroit, Chicago, and countless other
cities how they're doing. Ask the “new” food stamp recipients how they’re
doing. I can’t see how this economy or
market hold up if they start to taper.
So if they taper, this is going to get very interesting, very quickly.
Tips:
Many of you have written asking for a list of
dividend stocks that I like. Frankly,
high paying dividend stocks (over 6%) often scare me – because not many businesses have the ability to pay out that
much of a dividend. And, when they
invariably cut the dividend, then the stock gets hit due to increased
selling. The dividend paying stocks that
I like are often set up as trusts, REITS, and MLP’s.
- GOV (Government Properties Income Trust) – has
a 7% dividend – and given they rent properties back to the U.S. Government –
it’s the closest thing to guaranteed rent that I’ve ever found.
- VNR (Vanguard Natural Resources) – has a 9%
dividend, and is another one of the safest dividend companies out there. They don’t do their own drilling or shipping,
but rather piggyback onto existing projects.
- EPD (Enterprise Products Partners) – 4.5%
dividend, and is one of the biggest dividend payers in the energy space. KMP (Kinder Morgan Energy Partners) is also
up there – and they pay a 6.4% dividend.
- Finally, NTI (Northern Tier Energy LP) – has a
20% dividend – but it can be reduced significantly at the drop of a hat. The May payout was down 4% and the stock
price was hit immediately. I think this
one is best to buy after a huge decline.
This week we sold out of JNJ for a $4
gain, but were stopped out flat on MMM, TEX, SLW, LOW, POT and JBL. Look at the movement on BTU and ACI on Friday! Keep an eye on the energy / coal sector in
the coming weeks – it could be used as a ‘safe haven’.
My
current short-term holds are:
-
FB – in at 25.61 (currently 38.55) - stop at 36.00,
-
FCX – in at 28.47 (currently 31.70) – stop at
entry,
-
SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 13.69) – no stop
-
GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently
127.09) – no stop ($1,312.90 per physical ounce), AND
-
SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 19.82)
– no stop ($20.40 per physical ounce).
To
follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is:
taylorpamm.
Please
be safe out there! a
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