This Week in Barrons - 11-18-2012

This Week in Barrons – 11-18-2012

“We shall draw from the heart of suffering, the means of inspiration and survival.” … Sir Winston Churchill

Survivors of Hurricane Sandy have sent us the following tips:

-       Water … two 55-gallon barrels would let a family of four "flush" for a long time, and having 20 gallons of bottled water is necessary for drinking, sponge baths, etc.

-       Heat … either preparing food or staying warm – a wood stove and your outdoor grill (with some propane) become your best friends. 

-       Power … a generator with a supply of ‘recreational’ fuel.  This is gasoline that does NOT have ethanol in it and will last up to 2 years.  An 8,000-watt generator will consume half a gallon of gasoline per hour – so plan accordingly.

-       So for under $3,000 you can make your coastal home quite livable for weeks during something like Hurricane Sandy. 


A more global survival list goes something like this:

-       Because the Dow and the S&P 500 are both down more than 5 percent since the election and the U.S. government rolled up $22 Billion more debt in October 2012 than it did in October 2011 – think gold, silver, and agriculture as alternative investments.

-       Initial claims for unemployment benefits soared to 439,000 for the week ending November 10th.  This is the highest level that we have seen in more than a year.  The largest number of new unemployment claims came from the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

-       According to the Federal Reserve of New York, economic activity is contracting.  Their index measured a ‘minus’ 5.2 this month after recording a ‘minus’ 6.2 in October. (Readings of less than zero signal contraction.)

-       The mid-Atlantic region is also slowing much faster than analysts were projecting.  It’s index measured ‘minus’ 10.7 down from ‘plus’ 5.7 the previous month.  Some of the fall can be attributable to Hurricane Sandy – but unfortunately not nearly enough.

-       The number of Americans living in poverty rose to a new all-time record of 49.7 million last year.

-       The number of Americans on food stamps increased by 420,947 from July to August.  At this point, an all-time record 47.1 million Americans are enrolled in the food stamp program.

-       The Eurozone is officially in a recession once again, and unemployment in the Eurozone is at an all-time record high.

-       China is buying gold and building uninhabited ghost cities.

-       Stealth inflation is running rampant – hamburger is over $5/lb, and it costs $3.99 for a 10-piece loaf of sourdough bread.

-       We learned this week (thanks to the powerful corn lobby) that our (non-elected) EPA is going to continue the ethanol subsidies – taking corn from being a valuable food resource.

-       Companies like Denny's, Papa Johns and many others are reducing worker hours and laying off personnel in order to avoid the Obamacare mandatory price tag.

And finally:  The Middle East is a tinder box, and if there's one thing we really don't need right now it's a full blown outbreak of war across the Middle East, which brings into play Iran and the Straits of Hormuz.  An oil price jump linked to additional US involvement would virtually assure a disastrous economic condition. 

Obama could help us all survive by:

-       Opening all the Federal lands to natural gas and oil drilling.

-       Opening the permits to build LNG plants on our coasts so we could export LNG (liquid natural gas) all over the world.

-       Donating Federal Property on closed military bases and have several state of the art oil refineries built, supplying us with $2 gas and exporting the rest.

-       Shutting down the EPA, and undo the ethanol madness so that corn is once again be a food source instead of fuel – thereby lowering our food costs.

Let’s all try and survive the storms that are coming: inflation, hyperinflation, high unemployment, and even more class warfare.

The Market...



There are a lot of reasons that the market has plunged for about 1000 points in the past month and I’ll explore a few of them here.

-       1^st the “Fiscal Cliff”.  There's no doubt that some folks have decided they'd cash out this year and take the lower tax hit than hold into next year in case the tax rates are higher.

-       2^nd Obamacare.  We have companies saying that Obamacare is going to cut into profits and jobs.

-       3^rd Revenues and Earnings.  Revenues have been falling for years, and companies have succeeded in keeping profits elevated by slashing jobs, cutting costs, expensing things that should be illegal.  But you can only cut so far, and now profits are beginning to suffer.    

Which begs the question: “These elements have existed for a while now - why would anyone stop buying stocks?”  Honestly, I think J.Q. Public is running out of money.  One thing to remember is that the 401K's and pension plans buy the bulk of stocks for their mutual funds.  As the economy continues to slide, more and more folks will need that 401K money to pay bills.  Small businesses will liquidate their 401K’s and IRA’s when they will close due to inflation and Obamacare.  This year is on track for more than a $90B withdrawn, on top of the $100B that was withdrawn last year.  Eventually those exiting the market will offset The Ben Bernanke billions pouring in – and a major league bear market will begin.  Many readers have told me that raiding their 401K was the only way that they could send their kids to college.  Toss in the global slowdown, the money troubles of Europe, and try as they might to keep the market "up" – I just don't think they can pull it off in the long run.

After we get whatever "bounce" we're going to get from an agreement on the ‘fiscal cliff’ (and the fact that we're entering the single strongest period for the market (Dec- Jan) ) – I sense the market heading lower for a long time (ending below 7K) starting in the spring of 2013.

For now keep your powder dry and sit on your hands.  Wait for the turn, jump in and ride it up, and then go short next year.  There's going to be some huge money to be made on the short side of things in the future.

Tips:

In terms of investing your way OUT of this market.  I hate to be a broken record by Gold and Silver have remained fairly stable vs the 1,000 point drop in the DOW (quite honestly) – so consider them safe-havens for your dollars.  

Also, Dave S and Francis D reminded us that “DBA” the agricultural exchange traded fund (ETF) is about to produce its first “higher low” in a long time.  It should use its moving average as support.  Additionally, we see that the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about to become oversold, and this means that higher prices are likely to come in the months ahead.  In addition to that, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index diverged from the falling price action earlier in the year, and this showed that DBA’s descent was likely coming to an end.  That happened and now DBA has surged so much that the MACD’s lines are now above its zero line.  This tells us that the likelihood of an uptrend forming and continuing is high.  And with what we expect in terms of higher food prices in 2013 and beyond, we know that we’ll see DBA head much higher in the months ahead.  So you may want to hedge some of your higher grocery bills and dining out costs by buying DBA – the agricultural ETF. 

I continued to hide out in ‘cash’ over the past week – exiting SLW even.  After our ‘Santa Claus Rally’ – please remember the list below – as they will come in handy in order to manage a bear market (ETF’s offered by ProShares):

-       Short the DOW 30 – ticker symbol = DOG

-       Ultra Short the DOW 30 = SDOW

-       Short the ‘Financials’ – ticker symbol = SEF

-       Ultra Short the Financials = FINZ

-       Short the Nasdaq = PSQ

-       Ultra Short the Nasdaq = SQQQ

-       And if you LOVE SILVER = Ultra Silver = AGQ

My current short-term holds are:

-       SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 22.34) – no stop yet

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 165.80) – no stop ($1,714.30 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 31.35) – no stop ($32.36 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! 

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons - 11-11-2012

This Week in Barrons – 11-11-2012

“Opportunity is missed by most people because opportunity is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” … Thomas Edison

It’s the morning after the election, and we need to get back to work fixing our country.  Obama has been re-elected, and the market rewarded him by falling about 450 points in 3 days.  Previously I suggested that the market may ‘pout’ if Obama won, and I'd call 450 points a pretty big tantrum.  Small businessmen are blogging that they’re going to be shutting down due to the regulations and taxes.  Financially – SK writes that: “Several sectors such as defense, energy and financials may well encounter headwinds during Obama’s second term.”   My thinking is that traditional energy companies may suffer from both increased and enforcement of EPA regulations.  The financial sector will also face increased regulatory implementation and oversight, especially with Elizabeth Warren being elected to the Senate.  Also think thru your municipal bond investments because the value of municipal bonds is partly determined by the value of their tax exemption.  An increase in tax rates could increase the value of these bonds, while a limit on tax exemptions could reduce the value.

Mathematically we cannot tax our way out of our country’s fiscal dilemma.  Nor can we ‘mathematically’ cut spending (in a short enough timeframe) that will make a difference.  A true global reset like Bretton Woods (where 170 World leaders gathered and hammered out the new global reserve currency and re-priced all currencies) could be the last shoe to fall.  We (as a country):

-       Still have $700 Trillion in derivatives to contend with. 

-       Still have $90+ Trillion in National debt and unfunded liabilities.

-       Still have over 43M people on food stamps, and over 80+ social programs to support.

-       Still take in less in taxes than we pay out.

-       And we need to make sure that we hold steadfast the concept of: Hard Work + Personal Responsibility = Success and Wealth Creation!

We all need to get to work planning for:

-       Small businesses going out of business due to increased taxes and healthcare costs,

-       Much higher inflation,

-       The ultimate demise of the European Union (with Spain leading it’s downfall and Greece being the prime example), and

-       Plan for a major market crash – while the timing is suspect it is inevitable.

We’ve chosen the path of printing more money – that leads to hyperinflation – that always ends with a crash; rather than clearing out the dead wood, letting the bankrupt banks fail, raising interest rates, stabilizing savings, and relying on our innovation, our small businesses, our entrepreneurs to dig us out of this mess. 

With the 450-point drop – this ‘wild ride’ has already started.

The Market:

Obama won the election.  The market greeted him with a 450-point plunge.  Welcome back Kotter.  Why the big selloff?  One reason I’m hearing is that most of the people running the EU are Goldman Sachs alumni – and they were told to keep the EU stable until after the election.  Don't you find it interesting that we didn't hear a thing about Europe going down the toilet for two months, and the VERY DAY Obama wins, Greece goes up in flames with riots over austerity?

And now we have the "Fiscal Cliff" to contend with.  What is the “Fiscal Cliff”?  The “Fiscal Cliff” is the penalty for a bi-partisan committee’s (along with President Obama) not reaching agreement on a financial direction for our nation.  A series of consequences (laws) will go into effect at midnight on December 31^st, 2012 that:

-       End last year's temporary payroll tax cuts (resulting in a 2% tax increase for workers),

-       End certain tax breaks for businesses,

-       Shift the Alternative Minimum Tax resulting in a larger individual and corporate tax bite,

-       End the ‘Bush Era’ tax cuts,

-       Begin the “Obama Care” taxes, and

-       Begin all the spending cuts agreed upon, as part of the debt ceiling deal of 2011 (such as a 10% decrease in defense spending). 

By going over the “Fiscal Cliff”, the CBO tells us that the combination of higher taxes and spending cuts would:

-       Reduce the deficit by an estimated $560 billion,

-       Cut our 2013 GDP by 4% sending the economy into a massive recession and/or depression,

-       Increase unemployment by over 1%,

-       Be responsible for a loss of approximately 2 Million jobs.

According to J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli, $280 Billion would be pulled out of the economy by the sun-setting of the Bush tax cuts, $125 Billion from the expiration of the Obama payroll-tax holiday, $40 Billion from the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits, and $98 Billion from Budget Control Act spending cuts.  In total, the tax increases and spending cuts make up about 3.5% of GDP, with the Bush tax cuts making up about half of that.

Our economy is in no position to weather that kind of storm.  So in one day we changed focus from who’s going to win, to “Oh no - Europe's going down the toilet".  In one day we went from standing in voting lines, to "Oh no – in less than 2 months, our GDP will go horribly negative". 

Now the question is, can they get their act together and make a year end market run?  They could, but the real question is why?  The economy isn't going to magically heal itself because Obama's still in office.  Corporate sales are not mystically going to increase.  The only way the market could make a move higher is if Obama calls The Ben Bernanke and says: "Print up A LOT MORE DOLLARS and pass it around the stock market so it rises and people love me".  

The issue is that technically the DOW has lost it's 50 AND it's 200-day moving averages. The S&P lost it's 50, but is still clinging to it’s 200-day moving average at 1380.  That is the line of demarcation.  If the S&P loses that 200-day average, then I'm going to go (in a big way) to cash; however if we hold that 200-day, they might use that as something of a support and build sideways and upward from there.  Again, even though the DOW is the most watched and reported index on earth, it's the S&P that all the fundies use as a benchmark.  If the S&P doesn't hold, this could turn (very quickly) into a really interesting pull back.  Don't get brave and try and buy the dip, not yet.  If it's going to hold, we'll know soon enough. 

Factually, the internals are a mess, and there's an awful lot of "stuff" being sold – more than the averages suggest.  The world looks fairly worried about "something", and I don’t blame them.  Things couldn't stink much more, and if someone tries to tell you that the millions of folks on the NJ/NY coast are going to be out spending for iPhones and Christmas tech gear – well – don’t bet on it.  Hurricane Sandy money will be spent, just not on the ‘usual’ Holiday items.

In 2011 over $100B dollars came out of mutual funds, and in 2012 over $78B more was pulled out of the market.  Some of this is going to bonds, some to gold, but a big percentage of this is going to pay the monthly bills.  Don’t forget that when a postal worker is laid off – they get 2 years of unemployment.  When the small business guy is laid off – all he has is his 401k.  So, I expect the huge outflows to continue, only to be countered by The Ben Bernanke giving banks billions to try and support the market.  While a "bounce" is certain, what isn't certain is if the bounce will hold and whether they will work us higher into year- end?  There was a lot of damage done on Wednesday and Thursday.  Friday didn't do much to undue that damage. 
Until things quiet down, sitting on your hands isn't a bad play, and we’ll make our trades when we see a trend develop.

Tips:

I continued to be somewhat of a “deer in headlights” this week – not wanting to catch the proverbial “falling knife” – but not wanting to ‘go short’ for fear of The Ben Bernanke.  This coming week – if the S&P fails its 200-day moving average (1380) – I will continue to move to cash in order to ride out this storm. 

For those of you unaccustomed to trading ‘options’ – you may want to consider the ‘inverse’ ETF’s offered by ProShares …

-       Short the DOW 30 – ticker symbol = DOG

-       Ultra Short the DOW 30 = SDOW

-       Short the ‘Financials’ – ticker symbol = SEF

-       Ultra Short the Financials = FINZ

-       Short the Nasdaq = PSQ

-       Ultra Short the Nasdaq = SQQQ

-       And if you LOVE SILVER = Ultra Silver = AGQ

My current short-term holds are:

-       SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 23.88) – no stop yet

-       SLW – in at 38.50 (currently 40.51) – stop at entry

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 167.76) – no stop ($1,730.30 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 31.57) – no stop ($32.59 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! 

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons - 11.4.2012

This Week in Barrons – 11-4-2012

“An entrepreneur must be big enough to admit his mistakes, smart enough to profit from them, and strong enough to correct them.” ... John Maxwell

I have never gone to war, but I’m getting a real sense of total devastation when I see what Hurricane Sandy did to New York and New Jersey.  It's one thing to see it on TV.  It's quite another (as many of you have written) “to be standing in water up to your waist, using a chainsaw to cut an oak tree out of your neighbor’s bedroom.”  You tell me that about half of the cell towers are out of service, and some towns won’t have power for another 3 weeks.  Some of you are still prohibited from going back to your neighborhoods to even assess the damage – my thoughts and prayers go out to all effected.

Due to the hurricane and the shortened market week – allow me to address some listener’s e-mails.

Concerning the election DS writes:  Berry and Bickers, (Political Science Professors at the University of Colorado who have correctly predicted the presidential winner since 1980) are predicting a landslide victory for Romney.  Others such as Porter Stansbury predict an Obama victory – followed by a mass explosion of our national gas industry.  He recounts that Obama will use the natural gas industry to make US fuels an ‘in demand’ commodity the world over – and consequently will use it’s taxes as a way to cure the debt/fiscal crisis.  A third viewpoint by TL says that we potentially won’t know for weeks who wins this coming election – as it will just be too close to call.  In any case – need I remind you to get out and VOTE on Tuesday.

SB was kind enough to remind me of something Mark Cuban (a Pittsburgh native) wrote 4 years ago.  If you believe that small business is the engine of jobs and growth it’s definitely worth repeating: “Entrepreneurs who create something out of nothing don’t care what tax rates are.  Bill Gates didn’t monitor the marginal tax rate when he dropped out of Harvard and started Microsoft.  I doubt that any great business or invention started with a discussion or even a consideration of what the current or projected income or capital gains tax was or would be.  Entrepreneurs live to be entrepreneurs.  Entrepreneurs live for the juice of having a vision and fighting to see it come true, thinking ‘mission accomplished’, and the scoreboard of the financial rewards.  I have never had a discussion with anyone about starting a business that included tax rates.  If anyone that wanted an investment from me made a point of discussing tax rates as an impact on their business, I wouldn’t invest in them - ever.  Honestly, it doesn’t matter what our Presidential candidates and their economic advisors come up with – it’s meaningless.  The cure to our economic problems is the Entrepreneurial Spirit of All Americans.  Instead of bitching at each other, could one Presidential candidate please show even the least bit of leadership and character and stand up for and encourage the entrepreneurs in this country?  Could our candidates stop yelling at each other, start looking at the American people, and encouraging the best of who we are?  That person is the one I want to get behind.  The best time for little guys to start a business is when the big guys are worrying about surviving in theirs.  You don’t need to raise money.  You need to be smart and be focused.  It’s up to entrepreneurs to start businesses and create jobs.  That is the cure to this country’s economic problems.”

And finally JA wrote about some crime statistics surrounding the “goings on” in Australia.  It has now been 12 months since gun owners in Australia were forced (by a new law) to surrender their personal firearms (640,381 at last count) to be destroyed by the Aussie government, costing Aussie taxpayers more than $500 million dollars.  In the first year:

-       Homicides increased 6.2%,

-       Assaults increased 9.6%,

-       Armed robberies increased 44%, and

-       In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300%!

The Market:

We have an election looming.  President Obama has been doing a good job working with Governor Christie and has moved up in the polls.  All the polls say that it’s virtually a ‘dead heat’ so it’s going to be incredibly interesting to see how this all works out.

In so far as the market is concerned, I figured they'd save DOW 13K and they did.  Now it's all about the election, and we may very well see the beginning of a big year-end push.  If I could see any demonstrable proof of this – I would put some money to work and capture some fast gains.  BUT we need to get past the election first and see how the market reacts to the winner.  If Obama wins, the markets may ‘pout’ a bit at first (considering all of Wall Street’s big donations went to Romney).   If Romney wins, the markets may put on a big show of support.  But honestly, until either happens, there is no sense trying to get out in front of this.

Many have written concerning Gold and Silver.  This week (as the world sold-off ahead of the election) gold broke down and through the $1,700 psychological line in the sand.  I constantly remind myself of the 5-year trend line – shown below for silver.  It’s my view (at least in the short term) silver and gold will continue to move along that uptrend.  If you are a trader, my advice would be to buy when it hits the uptrend line – and sell approximately 3 months later – rinse and repeat. 

Tips:

In this shortened trading week I did absolutely nothing.

My current short-term holds are:

-       SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 24.37) – no stop yet

-       SLW – in at 38.50 (currently 39.20) – no stop yet

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 162.50) – no stop ($1,674.10 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 29.87) – no stop ($30.83 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! 

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>