This Week in Barrons - 8-19-2012

This Week in Barrons – 8-19-2012

“Something’s Coming – Something ?” … West Side Story

This is a line from the musical West Side Story that announces a big change coming.  There is a certain uneasiness in the air, where people know “something” is coming and no one knows what.  There’s something just not right going on out there:

-       - In the past week the U.S. Treasury (via U.S. regulators) has directed five of the country's biggest banks (including Bank of America and Goldman Sachs) to develop plans for staving off collapse if they faced serious problems, emphasizing that the banks could not count on government help.

-       - In an attempt to push stocks higher, we are seeing our Fed send dollars to Europe to support the Euro and weaken the dollar.  These currency flows rose to $9.3 billion in the current week, the highest since December 9, 2009.

-       - In the past week John Corzine - previously of MF Gobal (a company that literally stole hundreds of millions of dollars from customer’s accounts – a criminal offense) – instead of going to jail, pseudo-announced that he would like to launch a new hedge fund!

-       - The unemployment rate in New Jersey rose to 9.8% - highest since 1977 – all the while unemployment claims in 44 of the 50 states are reaching new highs.

-       - The price of ground beef hit a record high.

-       - The Philadelphia Fed report came in negative (for growth) for the 5^th month in a row, and the Empire State Fed report came in with a 13 point plunge to go negative.

-       - Companies are beating earnings estimates by a penny on falling revenues.

-       - Anxiety about stocks is running so deep that net deposits to bond funds thru July are already 50% greater than for all of last year!

-       - And one of Joe Biden’s good friends received a $20M Federal Loan to open a luxury car dealership in the Ukraine!

Here are a couple headlines that fall into the: “You just can’t make this s__t up” category:

1.    1.  The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Monday that it will be awarding almost $100 million in grant funding to states to prevent layoffs by allowing businesses to pay employees as part-time workers and the federal government will pick up the tab for the cost of a full-time paycheck.

2.    2.  Finland is preparing to ‘batten down the hatches’ for a full-blown currency crisis as tensions in the Eurozone mount and has said it will not tolerate further bailout creep, or fiscal union by stealth.

3.    3.  And finally – the world is warning us about ‘food inflation.’  Between the drought in the mid west, the possible closing of the Mississippi river for barges, and the way oil is rising again – when The Ben Bernanke does his next round of stimulus – food prices will soar with ground beef being just the tip of the iceberg.   

While we see the stock market rise almost every day as they look forward to The Ben Bernanke's gifts of fiat dollars, I’m hoping the money we all see in gains will be enough to offset the inflation that we’re all going to feel.  If you have the room, buy some food for storage.  Not because the world will end today, but because food is going to cost more over the next several months.  When the Government is telling banks to make survival plans, and when seemingly mellow Government agencies are buying untold millions of rounds of body damaging ammunitions – there’s something "up" and it's NOT GOOD.  

The Market...

The high S&P and DOW closes back in April, were 1419 and 13,279 respectively.  On Friday the S&P closed at 1418, and the DOW closed at 13,275.  They have pushed the market right to the 4-year highs – so what’s next?

The technical pattern that was developing suggested that the market would trade sideways and then inch itself higher, and that has indeed happened.  Now all that is left is to see if we can close a couple days above the intra day highs at 1422 and 13,338 – which will get us into "breakout" mode.  Can they pull that off?  I think they can, but it won’t be easy.  Retail investors have been pulling money out of the market, and the only reason we're inching higher is the destruction of the US dollar.  The Ben Bernanke continues to prop up the Euro (so our dollar falls), and all of our hopes rest on The Ben Bernanke and Draghi pulling off a coordinated, gigantic round of "QE".

We are in overbought territory again – but as long as there's no bad news out of Europe, and as long as The Ben Bernanke's henchmen continue to tell us that something's coming, they will continue to inch us higher.  But we are getting down to the nitty-gritty!  The Jackson Hole Wyoming meeting is in two weeks.  If (after the meeting) The Ben Bernanke doesn't announce something – the market will be sorely upset.  Then on September 12, we have the German vote considering whether they can even join in on the ESM and the ECB bailout maneuver.  So there are two inflection dates – the Jackson Hole meeting, and the German ruling. 

What happens if we get positives out of both dates?  Will the market "sell the news" having already run up on the rumor?  In the case of QE, the market has made substantial gains after any announcement, and I would suspect that this would be no different.  If The Ben Bernanke does some form of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) buying, and the Germans go along with Draghi, I suspect we pile on a lot of points.  As long as Bernanke's willing to devalue the dollar, and help the Euro, we should see them try and threaten the old, all-time highs of DOW 14K. 

We've been leaning long into this and so far it's the right thing to do, but it’s like walking on eggs.  On any day someone in Europe could come out and say the whole plan is shot, and that would indeed knock 400 points off the DOW.

I believe that The Ben Bernanke will come out with something, and I believe the Germans are going to go along with Draghi.  NOT because it's right, but because they have no choice – without the punchbowl, everything falls.  It’s not about fixing anything; it’s all about living another day. 

In terms of developing a strategy to protect yourself and profit from all of this, you might consider an option straddle.  Also consider adding some VIXX to your portfolio, as volatility should increase if things don't unfold just right.  This is one of those times when making the right decisions can indeed line your pockets.

Currently I have 22 stocks that are on my radar for possible purchase.  I am not buying 22 stocks, but have 22 that are set up nicely and are worthy of a swing trade if indeed the market holds up.  Some are cheap – like LSCC, which I just purchased.  It had been struggling with the $4 level for months and I thought that if it crossed it again, it might go.  Some are more expensive – like IBM, which I also purchased.  It had been banging its head against $200, and when it made it through I took it.  And some are mid-range like MMM.  I liked the sideways shuffle it had done at the $92 level, and told my twitter followers that when it crossed $92.50 I’d buy it – and now it’s sitting at 94.24.

This is an exciting time. In the next couple weeks we will know a whole lot more, and I will probably be making changes to my asset allocation and cash positions along the way.

Tips:

Currently I’m holding:

-       SPY – in at 135.75 (currently 142.13) – stop at 141.00

-       GDX – in at 42.50 (currently 45.32) – stop at 43.50

-       PBR – in at 21.80 (currently 22.28) – stop at 22.00

-       WRES in at 2.63 (currently 3.04) – stop at 2.80

-       LSCC in at 3.80 (currently 4.10) – stop at 3.80

-       WYNN in at 102.03 (currently 105.03) – stop at 104.09

-       IBM in at 199.99 (currently 201.18) – stop at 200.60

-       SNDK in at 42.51 (currently 42.53) – stop at 41.80

-       MMM in at 92.53 (currently 94.12) – stop at 93.00

-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 156.66) – no stop ($1,616.30 per physical ounce), AND

-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 27.23) – no stop ($27.99 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! 

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons - 8-12-2012

This Week in Barrons – 8-12-2012

“Gold and Silver were mixed with dirt, until Avarice parted them” … proverb

Anyone that has read us for any length of time knows that I am a big fan of physical gold and silver.  I began our gold buying in 2001 and added to our holdings right up into the $1500 per ounce range.  I began silver accumulation in 2007, at around the $13 level, and bought it into the high $30's.  All along the way we've talked about how prices do not reflect reality, because gold and silver aren't priced by physical supply and demand.  Their prices are set by paper trading futures, derivatives, forward leases, swaps, and government interventions.  These prices have been manipulated for decades.  In Gold there was the "London Gold Pool" of the 60's that set the price at $35 an ounce, and bought and leased gold daily to keep that price locked.  Silver started being manipulated by the Coinage Act of 1965, and President Johnson himself stated, “Investors should not try and look for gains in silver because the US would dis-hoard their stockpile.”  It doesn't get much clearer than that.

J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) is usually the target of silver manipulation – because on any given day they might be short one-third of the ENTIRE silver production for a full year!  In fact, Andrew McGuire (a silver trader) went to the CFTC and told them that a manipulation would occur on a specific day, and "bingo" – on that exact day and time – the price moved to the levels he suggested.  At one time I believe there were more than 14 separate lawsuits about silver manipulation.  Recently a Financial Times article said that they are close to shutting down the CFTC investigation into silver manipulation due to lack of evidence.  So are all the silver traders just nuts – or is the CFTC covering up for JPM?  Is this an example of the foxes guarding the hen house?  Well, ‘Yes’ everyone sees the manipulation, but it’s difficult to prosecute the perpetrator when the perpetrator is the U.S. Government.

The gigantic shorting that you see at JPM isn’t because JPM has some issue with silver.  It’s a clear case of “Don’t shoot the messenger.”  JPM is simply one of the vehicles the Government uses when they're executing their monetary policies under the cloak of the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund).  This is a fund our government uses to “push metals around” in order to extract the highest advantage for them in their banking/currency contracts.  Big banks – like JPM – become the trading platform to do their dirty work.  JPM is not doing the manipulation – it’s just carrying out the trades for the true manipulators – the U.S. Government.

Some feel that because Uncle Sam himself is doing the manipulation, there's no hope that silver will ever really break free.  I do not believe that.  While the government does it’s best to keep gold in line (because it's viewed as a competing currency to the dollar), silver is a different animal.  Along with being a currency, silver (unlike gold) is also used in industry.  Except for all the gold that's been lost to shipwrecks, most of the gold (ever mined) is still here.  Silver however gets depleted as it's used in technology, aerospace, and medical.  There is less and less silver available each and every year, and at some point the shortage of the physical metal itself, will push the price higher.  Yes the manipulations will continue, but they will continue at a much higher price level.

This past week, silver went into ‘backwardation’.  That is when the physical price at the present is higher than the futures price in months to come.  That suggests that investors do NOT want to give up their bullion.  With the possibility of the ECB and our own Federal Reserve going crazy next month (carpet bombing the planet with fiat dollars), it is no wonder that people are holding onto their metal.  We are about to enter a period of severe inflation.

So ‘Yes’ the price is manipulated, and ‘Yes’ the price doesn't reflect true supply and demand.  And ‘Yes’ I am still accumulating the metal because I feel that the situation will be changing.  I have predicted a silver price of $70 to $80 an ounce, and still believe it will get there.  Considering that's about 3 times more than its current price, it's our opinion that Silver is still one of the best investments one could make.  Besides, as they debase our currency into oblivion, silver and gold just continue to make sense.  And, if the Central Bankers want it, I feel comfortable wanting it too!

The Market – The Plot Thickens…

We saw the market roar higher on the hopium that Mario Draghi is going to get Angela Merkel to go along with his plan to have the European Central Bank (ECB) act like our Federal Reserve, and buy up all the toxic debt, thus relieving Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc. of their debt burdens.  Currently the market is trading sideways – not wanting to give back the gains it's made, but it has NO volume to bust over the resistance zone.  The volumes on even the biggest ETF's like the SPY are trading on levels like we’re used to seeing on Christmas eve.  Yet, the markets continue to inch and claw their way higher.

In a technical sense, we are looking at the market try and work off an overbought situation by doing the ‘Pause and Shuffle’.  That's fine, and very well may work.  Everyone knows that the Fed is cooking up something in the background, and nobody wants to miss it.  In the past several days a Boston Fed Head was out saying it's time the Fed did something about the economy.  Now this particular gentleman doesn’t vote – but he’s out there talking because it's the wink and nod to investors that ‘something’ is in the works.  It’s coming – it’s just a matter of when – and that’s why the market is holding up here.

Judging by the way the market has held up (with no volume, and large overhead resistance at the 13,300 level), my guess is that they are going to continue crabbing sideways and just barely "up".  I can't see them letting a meaningful pullback hit when we're just a couple weeks from the Jackson Hole meeting, and then the German vote on the constitutionality of participating in the ESM.  I could see a couple hundred points peel off on some weak trading days, but right now I'm comfortable saying we've got a 70 to 75% chance of going higher.

I took some money off the table this past week – but I’m still leaning long into this market, and so far it's working well.  If the Europeans do what Draghi wants at the same time our “Fed Goes Wild”, we are going to see a rally of epic proportions.  Now we still have the German vote on September 12^th, and if they declare that they cannot participate in the scheme, all bets are off.  I believe that the German courts will do an "about face" and go with the program.

So, I think we're going slightly up.  I also think we're going to get the "accommodations" both here and overseas that will lead to a really sharp rally into year end.  Now, the only reason we're not 100% invested is the German vote. If they don't go with the plan, then all of this could implode.  So we’re leaning long – but not over-exposed. 

Tips:

Currently I’m holding:

-    -  SYNC – in at 11.15 (currently 9.96) – held over earnings – my error!

-    -  SPY – in at 135.75 (currently 140.87) – stop at 139.00

-    -  MRO – in at 26 (currently 27.74) – stop at 27.00

-    -  GDX – in at 42.50 (currently 44.85) – stop at 43.50

-    -  MLNX – in at 107.50 (currently 112.17) – stop at 110.00

-    -  CLF – in at 45 (currently 44.85) – stop at 44.00

-    -  PBR – in at 21.80 (currently 21.95) – stop at 21.30

-    -  X in at 22.24 (currently 23.31) – stop at 22.80

-    -  TEX in at 20.17 (currently 21.96) – stop at 21.10

-    -  WRES in at 2.63 (currently 2.95) – stop at 2.80

-    -  GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 157.16) – no stop ($1,619.70 per physical ounce), AND

-    -  SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 27.20) – no stop ($28.06 per physical ounce).

A couple stocks I’m watching are IBM over 200, and Intel (INTC) over 27.50.

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! 

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

 

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons – 8-5-2012

The Bottom Line



With all of the anagrams floating around Europe (each one kicking the can down the road a little bit further than the last), have we come to the end of the road?   The next kick sends Europe spiraling into a huge crevasse, too deep to ever be recovered.  The bottom line:  Will Germany allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to print trillions of Euro's and buy up all the sovereign debt loads from Spain, Greece, Italy… OR will they say “NO?”  That is the culmination of 2 years of kicking the can, creating rumors, and playing “Weekend at Bernie’s” with these countries.  Either the ECB goes nuclear and sops up all of that debt, OR the Eurozone implodes.  Therefore the future of the Eurozone lies squarely at the feet of the German people.

On Friday the market went nuts and gained 217 DOW points.  The mainstream media told folks that it was because of a great jobs report.  The problem with that statement is that the jobs report really stunk.

-       - The ‘Household Survey’ showed a LOSS of 195K jobs.

-       - The BLS (birth-death model) added 52,000 jobs to the report, and none of those exist.

-       - The hours worked were dismal.

-       - The reported unemployment percentage increased!

-      -  Our only hope was that the report was so bad that The Ben Bernanke will be forced to move sooner rather than later.

The market really moved up on Germany’s (Angela Merkel’s) “trusted coalition” hinting strongly that they were in agreement with Mario Draghi (the architect behind the ECB plan) to change the basic "charter" of the ECB so that they can indeed join Ben Bernanke in "Bankers Gone Wild" and print money at will. 
The second the news hit that Angela Merkel’s own coalition group was ‘on board’ with this plan, the futures popped from slightly negative, to up over 100.  No lousy jobs report was going to stand in the way of Europe receiving trillions in bogus Euros, in order that Italy and Spain could then start borrowing money at incredibly low rates, instead of the 6 - 7.5% that they’re paying now. 



In a nutshell, Mario Draghi wants the ECB to do what Bernanke did in 2008 – open the faucet and pour trillions of freshly minted dollars into the system.  But Germany has ‘seen’ that easy fix before.  Germany knows that printing money creates inflation.  The Germans experienced one of the worst hyper inflationary periods the world has ever seen. 
The Germans know that when the price of goods rises rapidly due to inflation, the government cannot raise taxes fast enough to counteract the effect.  And when people realize that their money is rapidly losing value, they spend it quickly – which further increases prices and the vicious cycle itself.  In 1923, German employers would pay their employees 3 times per DAY, civil unrest became common, farmers and cattlemen stopped delivering goods because they didn't want worthless paper for their edible assets, and rioting and looting started fraying the seams of what was once a stable society. 

So, here we are with Mario Draghi making plans for the ECB to become a true Central bank and flood the Eurozone with freshly printed money.  But what if Germany does NOT go along with the plan?  If Germany refuses, the Eurozone will change forever.  Italy, Spain, Greece, and probably half a dozen others will spiral out of control and crash.  The Germans with their strong economy will survive, but their currency will RISE so quickly in value, that their main income source (exported goods) will come to a halt.  And if Germany cannot export, then unemployment will rise, and their economy will tailspin.  It seems as though Germany is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. 


On September 12, they will vote over this whole notion.  If they go along with it, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a wicked market run up here in the US.  As a form of ‘double whammy’, I also believe that our own Federal Reserve will chip in with some form of accommodation here as well, which would trigger a rally of really epic proportions.  If they don't approve it, we're going to see some real dislocations and everything the market has built up will come crashing down. 



From where I sit, I think that they must go along – not because they really want to – simply because the immediate fall out of ‘not going along’ will set in motion the disintegration of the Eurozone, and it could have unforeseen consequences.  Germany realizes that by letting the ECB print money – they will trigger inflation.  But unlike in previous years, they don't have the burden of trying to make war reparations and paying down their gold reserves.  I think they will reason with themselves that inflation will occur, but it shouldn't spiral out of control.  After all, they have seen the US print for ages and although we have inflation, it's not out of control (yet).  Combine that with letting all those Euro Countries simply crash and burn, could affect Germany in ways no one's quite aware of yet.

-       - Think of the ‘counter party exposure’ for their nation’s banks, and the derivative contracts. 

-      -  How badly would their exports be affected if their currency rose above all the others in the zone?  

-       - With China slowing and the US below stall speed, can they be reckless and flippant with the idea of not going along with the bailouts?

I think Germany will go along with Draghi. 
But, if Germany does NOT go along, then it’s going to be time to get out the popcorn and watch a truly epic situation unfold. 



The Market

There isn’t much left to say after surviving last week.  Four days of selling were reversed in one orgy of buying on Friday.  Once again the market was "saved" from crashing through all manners of technical levels, just like it was saved back on July 24^th.  Back on July 24^th, the market again wasn't saved due to wonderful fundamentals or glowing earnings, but rather because someone in Angela Merkel’s coalition suggested that they would go along with the ECB carpet-bombing the Eurozone with freshly printed dollars – sound familiar?

Now we enter a very interesting time.  Factually – we won't know until 9/12 if Germany's court will rule that they can indeed participate in the European Stability Mechanism.  If they vote yes, and Merkel goes "all in" for Draghi's plan, we should see a very large market move higher. 
But 9/12 is a long way off:

-       - Will we just keep going up in anticipation?

-       - Will some of the Northern Countries in the Union complain that they aren't much interested in supporting the Club-Med guys and the market backs off?

-       - Will the market backfill just because it needs to.

-       - Or will they continue to support it on "hopium?" 



My guess is that 9/12 is too far off for them to punch through the triple top at DOW 13,300.  I tend to think that we will fade back some this week, but it will not be a hard sell off, and maybe just a fade down to near the bottom of the channel where we have been trading.  Three times since June, the market has slid down to DOW 12,500, and has used that to springboard us back up – and potentially we drift down to 12,650’ish this time. 
What we want to look for (over the next several days), is whether we can remain above DOW 13,000.  If we can get a volume push over Friday's high, then we're going higher – probably to 13,300 before we stumble.

Tips:

Shout out to DS for recommending MLNX – it’s been on a tear lately – congrats on catching that one. 

Currently I’m holding:

-       - SYNC – in at 11.15 (currently 10.09) – held over earnings – my error!

-       - SPY – in at 135.75 (currently 139.57) – stop at 138.00

-      -  MRO – in at 26 (currently 26.84) – stop at entry

-      -  GDX – in at 42.50 (currently 42.82) – stop at entry

-       - GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 155.55) – no stop ($1,606.00 per physical ounce), AND, SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 26.99) – no stop ($27.79 per physical ounce).

Some of the stocks that’s I’m watching for this additional push are:

-       - IBM > 198.20,

-       - LRCX > 35.10,

-       - CHKP > 50.30,

-       - TJX > 45.50,

-       - COP > 56.00,

-       - MLNX > 107.50, and

-       - CAB > 47.30.

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there! 

Disclaimer:

Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to <rfc@getabby.com> to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<mailto:rfc@getabby.com>

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

This Week in Barrons - 6-3-2012

This Week in Barrons – 6-3-2012 To QE or not To QE - That is the question? Any economic activity for the past few years has been based on the $Trillions that The Ben Bernanke put into the system when his banking fraternity collapsed. It was the bailouts, the "cash for clunkers" and the myriad of other programs that were initiated – along with the desire to get interest rates to zero – that stimulated economic activity. Go back YEARS in our writings and you'll see us talking about the stimulus being exactly the same as a drug to a junkie. The first shot gets them high. Then it takes two, then four, and then 10, and they are still not as high as they were on his very first dose. Monetary stimulus works in exactly the same fashion – you constantly need more, or the economy retreats. So, we started with QE1 (QE stands for Quantitative Easing and it was designed to bring down interest rates), but the effects of QE1 wore off, and then came QE2. Then the effects of QE2 wore off, and then came “Operation Twist” which is due to expire in June. And the debate begins: - Some say: "No Way" is The Ben Bernanke going to let loose with more stimulus – he is going to sit back and let the "great recovery" take hold. More stimulus could be seen as a political nightmare – being this close to a major election. - And some say: – “Are you nuts? Without Fed stimulus, this economy crumbles in on itself and crashes." I’m in the camp that says that he's going to pull a rabbit out of his printing press and initiate another QE program! As for the political comments: Do you think Obama (who has trampled everything in his path to do what he wants to do) really gives a flying tomato if it looks "funky" that the Fed moved just 6 months ahead of his election? This is the guy that rammed Obama-Care down our throats. A piece of legislation that over 90% of business owners don’t want, and over 75% of the people hate. His voting base could care less about what the politics look like. As long as their 401k’s are moving up, and he can take credit for saving the economy, he'll hold a gun to The Ben Bernanke's head and order him to do more QE. And it seems that this opinion has been gaining some momentum over the past week: “The probability of more Fed stimulus when Operation Twist ends in June has gone up to 80% from 50%,” says Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw. “Winter month optimism has faded away, and The Fed is likely to do what it can to provide some support." The numbers tell us that our economy is NOT in a soft patch. This is NOT a bump in the road. The economy is doing exactly what it is supposed to do when the effects of stimulus wear off – it’s fading fast. This past week: - the jobs and the layoff numbers were horrid, - housing prices fell 2% in the 20 city Case Schiller index, - manufacturing activity dropped, - and first quarter GDP was below 2%! Speaking of jobs – on Friday we were looking for 155,000 jobs created in the month of May – and we only got 69,000! But even that number included 204,000 ‘birth/death’ jobs (that do not exist); therefore, we really LOST over 140,000 jobs during the month of May! Now, if you add it all up: - jobs are non-existent, - layoffs are growing, - housing is still falling, - manufacturing is slowing, - interest rates are at 200 year lows, - wages are not keeping up with inflation, - 47 million people are on food stamps, - 40% of our youth are unemployed, - Europe is swirling the toilet, - And China is in a slowdown and will get worse. If the Fed does nothing, then unemployment will spike back up to 9%, Obama's chances of winning the election go down another 30%, and Romney fires The Ben Bernanke when he wins! The Ben Bernanke was hired because he knew what to do in a depression. Well – it’s not working and he’s panicking! Therefore, I think a stimulus package is coming, and the reason that it hasn't been announced is because of Europe. Things are so ugly there, that at any minute Greece could leave the EU, and Spain could declare a bank holiday (as Spain is actually worse than Greece.) The situation is even more complicated if we get involved in Syria or Iran. So The Ben Bernanke can’t afford to use all of his ammunition, and then when something massive happens – have nothing to rush in with. But as we said before, this market is going sideways and down until they hear the words “more stimulus.” But we are not in a fight for our economy; our economy is a result of our politicians. Remember the article Charley Reese wrote back in 1985? “One hundred senators, 435 congressmen, one president and nine Supreme Court justices - 545 human beings out of the 235 million - are directly, legally, morally and individually responsible for the domestic problems that plague this country. I can't think of a single domestic problem, from an unfair tax code to defense over-runs that is not traceable directly to those 545 people. When you fully grasp the plain truth that 545 people exercise the power of the federal government, then it must follow that what exists is what they want to exist. If the tax code is unfair, it's because they want it unfair. If the budget is in the red, it's because they want it in the red. If the Marines are in Lebanon, it's because they want them in Lebanon...” Wicked things are going on all around us and unfortunately I don't think we can escape without some awfully tough times. I hope I'm wrong, but I keep buying silver and gold! The Market: Well since last week: - we have lost over 1,000 DOW points, - we have crashed through the 200-day moving average, - and we have seen the entire Month of May only produce 4 up days. I also think that between the jobs report and the massive dump that the market took on Friday, Obama's advisors are probably screaming at The Ben Bernanke to do something and do it soon. But did you see that gold was up $50+ on Friday? That's because when the world saw our jobs report, they knew that we were one step closer to hearing from The Ben Bernanke. Europe is already dead, and the destruction of the PIIGS nations is accelerating faster than monetary policy can offset it. Only one person has the amount of money necessary to fight this, and it’s The Ben Bernanke. Remember, he lent Europe $16 TRILLION under the table back in 2008! You can make the case that we are heading into something that is many times worse than what we saw in 2008 - 2009. Back then – China was still soaring, Europe was supposedly safe from the U.S. Banks, and back then we had NOT spent $25 Trillion (that we didn’t have) to fight off a depression! Now we are facing it with all those ills very much intact. Many have asked me (over the past 3 months) if I was still a gold and silver bull. I always answer with a question: “If indeed the entire world is going into a recession/depression, if the US dollar's role is reduced as a reserve currency, if the Euro fails, if war breaks out in Iran/Syria – what would you rather have – a pocket full of gold, dollars, euros, yen, or Yuan? I will take the gold and silver. We are facing a deflationary time economically, and an inflationary time monetarily. Those combined are strange bedfellows. As people deleverage (and cannot find the kind of employment that supports a 3 or 4 percent growth in GDP) we will slowly slide sideways and down. But I think we get a stimulus bill out of the Feds, and I think it lights up the market for Obama's campaign. If that's correct, then “Watch Out Below” in 2013, because then I'm fairly convinced we'll be revisiting the lows set in 2008/09. Now, if there is no rescue from the Fed, then we will continue to slide sideways and down from here. Clearly going short makes the most sense; however, any day there could be a new plan, or a new Europe and instantly we would be up 400 points. Going long is no picnic either – as each day where there is no announcement of new, free money is another day we head south. Tips: Our mining stocks are doing well, as we got into the miners and the juniors a couple weeks ago. The GDX we got at 41.72 is over 46 now. Some are asking if it's too late to get into the miners from here – maybe. Remember, the gold miners really have it made – as they dig the stuff that everyone wants. But in really bad times, they are often looked at as "stocks first" and thus sold off – versus a good way to play the increasing price of gold! My opinion is that it is not too late and they have more room to run. It was just February when the GDX was at 58. Currently I’m holding: - GDXJ at 19.50 (currently 20.74) – stop at entry - GDX at 41.72 (currently 46.62) – stop at entry - EXK at 7.96 (currently 9.42) – stop at entry - SYNC at 10.88 (currently 11.82) – stop at entry - GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 157.95) – no stop, AND - SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 27.81) – no stop. To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. Please be safe out there! Disclaimer: Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: . Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference . If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle. If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email. Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article. Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above. Remember the Blog: Until next week – be safe. R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 5-27-2012

This Week in Barrons – 5-27-2012 Happy Memorial Day? Memorial Day is the day we have chosen to remember those who have fallen. It was formerly Decoration Day, as it originated after the American Civil War to commemorate the fallen Union soldiers of the Civil War. By the turn of the century, Memorial Day had been extended to honor all Americans who have died in all wars. I have always had a soft spot for Memorial Day as my father and father-in-law were WWII veterans, who have seen their share of horrors. I guess I could follow the usual plot and talk about patriotism, love it or leave it, and all the normal adages applied to the day, but I'm not going to do that. Today we are engaged in many wars, most of them undeclared. They are not wars between countries or dictators, but rather for your freedoms, your property, and your way of life. All while I was watching the movie “Hunger Games” I was thinking: I wonder how many people know about “Agenda 21?” Agenda 21 is a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally and locally by organizations of the United Nations System, Governments, and Major Groups in every area in which humans impact the environment. More than 178 Governments at the United Nations Conference in June of 1992 adopted Agenda 21. Agenda 21 says we should live in cities like compounds, and all rural areas should be returned to nature. Agenda 21 says that you have no rights to personal property because it belongs to everyone. Agenda 21 wants "biospheres" all around the country where you may NOT trespass. Combine that with the fact that the U.S. is currently building the biggest data center the earth has ever seen. The National Security Agency will use it to watch for "terror". The Utah Data Center’s purpose is to intercept, decipher, analyze, and store vast swaths of the world's communications. Flowing through its servers will be all forms of communication, including the complete contents of private emails, cell phone calls, Google searches, as well as personal data trails on parking receipts, travel itineraries, bookstore purchases, and other digital "pocket litter." It is, in some measure, the realization of the "Total Information Awareness" program created during the first term of the Bush administration – an effort that was killed by Congress in 2003 after it caused an outcry over its potential for invading Americans' privacy. On this weekend we are celebrating the fine folks that fought to give us freedoms. Yet I worry that in the past 20 years we have lost many of them. Yes it's Memorial Day and my thoughts will be with those who've served, but a nagging presence in my head tells me that the freedoms they fought for are all turning to smoke and mirrors. The Market... The old adage of "Sell in May and go away" is in full effect, but for a much bigger reason. With Greece about to exit the Euro, With a noticeable slowdown in China, with the UK as broke as the PIIGS nations, and with the US loaded with so much debt it's impossible to ever repay it – sometimes the reality of it all rises to the surface like an oil slick. The reality is – without the ever-increasing printing of fake dollars, the Euro cannot survive, and the US economy can not expand. In June, three upcoming events must be monitored closely: the Greek elections, the next Fed meeting, and a Supreme Court ruling on President Obama’s health care law. Although we can’t predict the outcomes, the decisions could add to or ease anxiety in the financial markets, and the economy. The Greek elections are on June 17th, and ordinarily, what happens in Greece has little impact on the US. The Greek economy accounts for less than 3% of euro-area economies and an even smaller percentage of the US economy. Yet, on June 17, Greece will vote on its future in the euro area and the ramifications could be global. SB points out – that even if Greece elects a government that will keep the country in the euro, the situation won’t be resolved. However, it would provide the new government with the public support to meet its previously agreed to fiscal targets, and the ability to negotiate less stringent terms and some financial support for growth-oriented measures. This would, at least, reduce the downside risk to other economies in Europe and across the globe. Secondly, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (scheduled for June 19 and 20) is expected to address major monetary policy issues. Policymakers must decide whether to end the Fed’s “Operation Twist” program, which was launched in September 2011 to extend the average maturity of its portfolio securities. The Fed may also consider starting another round of quantitative easing (QE3), via a further expansion of its balance sheet. Finally, by the end of its current session in late June, the Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – which was signed into law by President Obama in 2010. The law requires all people to have minimal healthcare coverage in what is known as the “individual mandate”, and penalizes people who aren’t insured. The law also includes several tax law changes – affecting those earning over $200,000 per year. Honestly, Obama’s healthcare law is widely seen as the administration’s biggest domestic legislative achievement over the past four years. A ruling in its favor would augment President Obama’s credibility and could add momentum to the administration’s ability to tackle fiscal issues. On the other hand, if the individual mandate is ruled unconstitutional, the pendulum may swing toward other approaches to healthcare reform and provide momentum to opponents seeking to address future fiscal deficits by scaling back the size of government. In our view, financial markets are often driven more by the direction of change than by actual legislation or resolution of a problem. In this respect, a Greek vote to stay in the euro could be a positive catalyst for the US economy, even though the outlook for Greece and the European economy would not materially change. A “No” vote would deal a huge blow to the European economy and the impact on the US economy and financial markets would be substantial. On the Supreme Court healthcare decision, the markets will be guided by the ruling, as it could set the stage for the framing of future legislation on deficit reduction that will undoubtedly take place after the November elections. I went on record a few weeks back saying that the market was about to do a sideways and down slide. My reason wasn't because it was "May", my reason was simply that “Operation Twist” would expire in June. If they stop that form of QE, then there's a chance rates will increase, and the Fed's beloved member banks cannot afford that – nor can the economy, which can't sell houses at 3.8% let alone 6%. So, I figured the market would sag until they came out and declared some form of new stimulus. So far that hasn't happened. They have hinted that "additional accommodation" may be necessary, but for now they are holding the line on no new QE. I could have this all wrong, and The Fed does nothing. But for The Fed to do nothing would be an almost explicit statement that they "want" the world to crash. Hey, maybe they do? Maybe that's part of the UN’s Agenda 21 as well? In any event, the market is (once again) highly oversold. I haven't seen any horrible news come across the wires from Europe, so if we get past Monday with no significant nightmares, there is a good chance we see the market bounce into month end and into June. But if we do bounce, I suggest it is nothing more than a “dead cat bounce”, and we'll slide sideways and down again. The market needs The Ben Bernanke to print. If and when he comes out with his new plan, then the market will stage a very powerful rally, taking us right back to the old highs. Until then, it's hard to imagine. Tips: We continued picking betting on minors as well as a new recommendation from DS – Synacor (SYNC). Currently I’m holding: - GDXJ at 19.50 (currently 20.03) – stop at entry - GDX at 41.72 (currently 44.96) – stop at entry - EXK at 7.96 (currently 8.95) – stop at entry - SYNC at 10.18 (currently 11.12) – stop at entry - GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 153.18) – no stop, AND - SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 27.69) – no stop. To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. Please be safe out there! Disclaimer: Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: . Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference . If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle. If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email. Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article. Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above. Remember the Blog: Until next week – be safe. R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons – 5-20-2012 Sell in May and Go Away? This isn't your typical "Sell in May and Go away". This market downturn has very little (if anything) to do with investors starting to book vacations and trading desks getting thin. This downturn has everything to do with Europe, overwhelming debts, no jobs, falling housing, and the biggest reason of all – the effects of the QE's having run their course. But honestly, the entire globe is slowing (especially Europe), and people with very little money don't tend to buy a lot of goods and services. Consider these facts: - “A hurricane is approaching," says a Chinese official, “where 8 of 10 of the country's largest shipbuilders have yet to receive an order this year.” - This week’s upward revision makes the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) a perfect 20 for 20 this year in needing to revise higher the previous week's jobless claims number. - This week’s Philly Fed Business Activity index came in at -5.8 versus an expected 10.0. New Orders came in at -1.2 versus an expected 2.7. - We learned that Hewlett Packard (HPQ) is planning massive layoffs that, along with an early retirement program and attrition, could reduce its workforce by 10% to 15%. - We also learned that in Chinese real estate: April Housing starts were down 14.4% year over year, Office starts declined 21%, Land sales were down 54.7%, and Foreign funding of property development declined 80.8%! People fear this may push the Chinese economy into a hard landing. The problem with nobody buying anything is the domino effect. When there is no buying, there is no production and therefore fewer jobs. So, like a cancer it spreads. Now, our politicians obviously know that printing money out of the clear blue is bad. But they also know that without freshly printed money to jam into the banks, the economy will grind to a halt. Will they let the economy grind to a halt, and let the too big to fail – FAIL, or will they take the tough road and increase interest rates, put the EPA back into the ground, and really do what's necessary to fix a failed economy? To me the choice is simple, they're going to print money and announce more QE (more stimulus). The only thing I don't know is when. How far down are they willing to let the market fall before Bernanke comes out with an announcement? The current version of QE (called Operation Twist) is set to expire in June. Thus far, The Ben Bernanke has hinted to us that he has many tools to employ and will jump in if the economy looks like it's weakening. But thus far, despite some pretty horrid economic news, he has kept his powder dry. I have to think that it's going to hit in early June, as they announce the program that will replace the twist. If he rolls out a really big package, then we should see the market run back up and threaten the triple top at 13,000. But what if it's not that big – then that would be ugly. Everyone knows that Greece and Spain are shot, Europe is fading, and China is slowing. Everyone also knows that the U.S. is much weaker than the numbers suggest. Therefore, I think that the next stimulus package will be a monster, but until it hits we are going to fade. We may see a couple hundred point counter bounce, but overall we are sinking. Some folks have asked about Gold and silver – and why they are not moving up? One reason is that because the Euro is so weak, the dollar is relatively strong, and most gold is priced in dollars. So when the dollar is firm, gold slides, but it is deeper than that. JA wrote in showing us a nice article by Greg Canavan hi-liting: - If gold weren’t such a crucial part of global finance, it wouldn't be such a huge market. Gold is crucial regardless of what Warren Buffet or The Ben Bernanke say. Therefore, the day physical gold leaves the banking system is the day when the paper dollar based system dies. - At this point the value of physical gold is many multiples of the current price, and many would not be surprised to see trading halted and gold re-priced much higher over the course of a weekend – as has been done throughout history. - This current pullback in the gold price has not been as severe as past episodes, and the pullback is suggesting that physical gold is increasingly in demand. Many monetary systems are being brought into question – and when this happens (regardless of what the price tells you) – physical gold is the only asset without counterparty risk. - So if you’re thinking of selling your gold – be strong – and think about what you will be swapping it for. You will be going short on 6,000 years of history and long on a 41-year paper and credit based experiment. - A very low gold price is not in a government's interest because physical gold would leave the system and end the paper money game. So governments simply try to control gold's rise, making sure it doesn't throw off too much of a red alert signal. - For the gold price to genuinely fall, we need to see a rise in REAL interest rates. In a world buckling under the weight of debt at all levels, that is just not going to happen. So, I look at this as just more "noise" in the overall picture. I might have gold and silver wrong. I was told I had it wrong at $400, $500, $700, and $1,000. Yet I'm just too dumb to understand why it's wrong, so I continue to buy it. Some have asked: “What if Romney wins?” Do you really think he is going to do the tough things that need to be done? There are only two choices: the tough love, tough medicine we need, or more bogus dollar printing until hyperinflation takes over. I say they pick printing, and history is on my side. The Market What a week. We came into the week with the news that JP Morgan managed to lose $3 Billion. Yes, grand master Jamie Dimon (the guru of finance) didn't know his "whale" trader had placed them with so much risk that $3 Billion could go poof? Give me a break! A “whale” might lose $100 Million and Jamie not know about it – but $3 Billion – not a chance! Of course he immediately had to rush out and tell folks why the banks don't need any more regulations, and it was just a big, bad bet. The market was particularly nasty this week as it didn’t like: Europe, Greece, Spain’s banks on the edge of absolute insolvency, not even the Facebook IPO! You know a market is really nasty, when the single biggest collection of Wall Street wizards couldn't keep it green on the day the biggest IPO in a decade hit the wires. So, are we destined to the dustbin of DOW 7K, or is this just ‘Sell in May, and Go away’? There are areas of the market that got "sold silly". Look at the mining ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ that had been beaten unmercifully. The coal sector represented by KOL has also been getting hammered. Some of these areas are ripe for a nice bounce, but what about the overall market? If you're comfy believing that established technical patterns are really still in place, then it's possible we're looking at a move higher soon. But I'm in a separate camp. I say this market can't do squat in a meaningful way if The Ben Bernanke doesn't come out with some form of replacement for “Operation Twist”. My feeling is that we are indeed overdue for a bounce, maybe even a few hundred points. But after that we will continue lower until we hear from the Feds. My guess is that The Ben Bernanke is going to unleash a massive program (one that drives the market up to possibly all new highs) right in time for Obama to say: "See I fixed it". So, when the announcement hits we want to be very long in the market. But until it does, be very careful, and take a look at the most beat up of the sectors. Tips: We continued picking up mining shares last week as the sector has been beaten bloody and there's no reason they're so low. We bought more physical gold and silver. DS urged us to acquire more EXK and we did. Currently I’m holding: - GDXJ at 19.50 (currently 18.71) – stop removed temporarily - GDX at 41.72 (currently 41.58) – stop removed temporarily - EXK at 7.96 (currently 7.96) – no stop - GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 154.82) – no stop, AND - SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 28.00) – no stop. To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. Please be safe out there! Disclaimer: Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: . Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference . If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle. If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email. Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article. Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above. Remember the Blog: Until next week – be safe. R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons – 5-13-2012 What Out for the Banks! First off – Happy Mother’s Day to all – gosh knows they certainly deserve the day. It’s by far the toughest job going out there – congratulations to all the moms! Secondly - take a peek at the following chart (attached):

Last week we heard about the dismal jobs picture, but the concept of ‘participation rate’ is a difficult one to understand. The line on the above graph (produced by the St. Louis Fed) is literally off the charts. Their chart only goes to 88 million, and we now have 88 million 400 thousand people that are NOT in the labor pool. That is why the unemployment rate ticked down. Every time someone leaves the labor pool (gives up looking for work) – they are no longer counted in the unemployment rate! Amazing accounting wouldn’t cha say? I’ve been telling you for years that the banks are insolvent. Not only do they hold toxic "assets" that are not worth the paper they're printed on, but there are so many derivatives cross swapped between the 27 major banks that no one really has a clue what they're all worth. The top bank in the US with exposure to derivatives is JP Morgan Chase (JPM). JPM has over $1.8 Trillion in assets and $70 Trillion dollars exposed in derivative plays! The top 25 banks have $230 Trillion in derivative exposure, but only have $11 Trillion in assets. Now – are these quality assets – of course not. Many of these assets are priced at ‘mark to model’, not mark to market – so who really knows what they’re worth. But it's even worse than that. A lot of these assets are collateral that has been pledged multiple times from smaller dealers to the larger banks. Therefore, no one truly knows exactly who's got what, at what price, or how many times it's been pledged. When you do the math, whether its fractional lending, assets to exposure, or whatever your measurement – the banks are insolvent. Yet The Ben Bernanke cannot let them fail, thus the printing presses continue to run. Remember The Ben Bernanke’s main job is NOT employment, but it IS to save his member banks at ALL COST. Factually we’re seeing: - the worst retail sales since 2009, - factory orders posting their largest decline in 3 years, - housing prices continuing to fall, and - Challenger layoffs increasing 7% in April! Unfortunately, stimulus is like a drug to a junkie – after very short periods of time, you need bigger hits to get the same high. For example: - QE 1 took us from DOW 6600 to DOW 10K. - QE 2 took us from DOW 10K to DOW 12K. - “Operation twist" (basically QE3) took us to DOW 13,300. Notice that each additional stimulus move bought us lower results. That's the way it always works. So we've got an issue, the economy is rolling over again. The effects of QE 1, 2 and 3 are wearing off and all this is taking place smack dab in the middle of what will be a nasty, grueling Presidential race. If the banks roll over again, it’s going to make Obama look really bad because he's been out telling folks he rescued us from collapse – not to mention the stock market will simply implode on itself. Thus, we wonder: "What happens now?" If you listen to CNBC most of them will tell you that any additional stimulus is "off the table". I find this ludicrous, as The Ben Bernanke has NO choice but to open the floodgates, expand the balance sheet, and do more "non-conventional" means of stimulating our economy. Unfortunately it’s mathematically impossible for us to get out of this mess. When you see the Fed’s charts, view the Bank statements, hear the accountants spell it out – then you realize the frustration as CNBC trots out their cheerleaders to tell us that all is fine. Wouldn't it be nice to approach the American people with the real facts, and discuss the disaster we're in the middle of? For all of you asking about gold and silver. The reason that I don't really get too concerned over the daily prices of gold and silver are that they are being manipulated by the likes of our central banks (JPM included). The reason I feel confident is because The Ben Bernanke and the ECB in Europe have absolutely no choice but to print more money and try and reduce their respective debts with devalued dollars. And just like it sounded crazy in 2001 when I said Gold would hit $1,000 in ten years, it sounds equally as crazy when I say that Gold still has $2,400 written all over it and silver will see $70. But I'm a very patient guy, and The Ben Bernanke isn't. The Market The Market is showing lots of down. Ever since the ugly jobs report, the initial jobless claims, and the Challenger report we’ve been down. Isn’t it funny that just last week we were at "four year highs" and now we're desperate to hang on to the lower range of the channel we've been in for months. We all know that the present "operation twist" is scheduled to end in June; therefore, the 20th of June is the latest The Ben Bernanke could come out with something. Yet that would be a bit rash to just say nothing for two months and then surprise us. I believe that the market will continue to trade sideways and down until the next announcement of stimulus. Sure it won't go down every day. It will bounce and backfill, bounce and sink; however, when The Ben Bernanke does announce something, we'll rally. We might not get the same pop out of it as we have in the past, but we will see them rejoice. Be careful out there folks. it's very hard to find stocks that can go up for more than a day, without sector rotation pulling money away from the very stock you just bought and the next day it's down. Take profits on the lion’s share of the position quickly and try and let the smaller balance ride. If the market goes up again and you're stock does, you're still in the game, but if it rolls on you - you've already made your profit so step out. Tips: We started picking up mining shares last week as the sector has been beaten bloody and there's no reason they're so low. We also picked up some physical silver. When we get something out of The Ben Bernanke, gold and silver should start inching higher. I’m holding: - GDXJ at 20.20 (currently 20.20) – stop at 19.00 - GDX at 42.02 (currently 42.43) – stop at entry - CNX at 34.02 (currently 34.44) – stop at entry - ECA at 21.29 (currently 21.25) – stop at 20.50 - GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 153.38) – no stop, AND - SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 28.10) – no stop. To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. Please be safe out there! Disclaimer: Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: . Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference . If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle. If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email. Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article. Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER. Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above. Remember the Blog: Until next week – be safe. R.F. Culbertson