This Week in Barrons - 1-22-12

This Week in Barons: 1-22-12:

“Up, Up and Away” … Superman

Here’s a news blurb that I found somewhat startling – “The average time a U.S. stock is held increased last year from 20 seconds to 22 seconds.” According to Michael Hudson, “It's a shorter time frame than even the average foreign currency trade, which is now 30 seconds. It's all about computers (with high-frequency trading) making up 70% of all volume.”

The trading day is 6.5 hours long, or 390 minutes long, or 23,400 seconds long. And if the average hold time is 22 seconds, one stock is changing hands 1,062 times in a day. Now multiply that by all the stocks. Last year $38 Billion was removed from mutual funds and stock funds as people moved to gold, silver, bonds, and spending money. So, if you take out all that money, and then add in the idea that 70% of all volume is high frequency trading lasting about 20 seconds – Is anyone really buying or selling stocks anymore? It sure doesn't seem like it!

Obviously it’s not humans doing these trades, but rather computers. And with this it’s not the ‘attitudes of millions of investors’ that are moving markets, but rather the high frequency computers that are moving markets. For example: didn’t it bother anyone (last week) that Goldman Sachs missed their revenue projections by 30% last quarter but the stock went UP $6. Didn’t it bother anyone that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is looking to borrow another $1 Trillion (because the first half trillion might not be enough) and our market went UP for the week? Now, I’m not advocating buying and selling 22 seconds later (like Wall Street has morphed into), but ‘active management’ is the only way to play in this market today.

What if you can’t manipulate your funds all that quickly? What if your funds are a part of a 401K or other structure that doesn’t allow for daily or even monthly manipulations? That ‘absolutely’ will require a more ‘macro’ view of the economy. If you have a broad enough ‘fund family’, potentially you can find a gold, silver, precious metals fund – but let’s assume your fund family isn’t that broad. Our ‘down the road’ view is that The Ben Bernanke is going to unleash QE4/3. (I say QE4 because QE3 was the U.S. loaning the European Central Bank (ECB) half a trillion dollars.) The Ben Bernanke will do QE4/3 because Obama is in the fight of his life to remain President. Obama needs an "up" market so he can take credit. The Ben Bernanke would be fired the day a Republican got in office. Therefore, The Ben Bernanke will do what ever Obama wants.

And this week (I digress) Obama wanted to veto the "Keystone Pipeline" bill. It would have been an opportunity to ship good oil and gas from a friendly nation down to our Texas refineries. It would have employed (some estimates show) 20,000 workers. It would put everyone from construction to chemical operators to work. But much worse was a quote Obama used to justify his veto: "However many jobs might be generated by a Keystone pipeline, they're going to be a lot fewer than the jobs that are created by extending the payroll tax cut and extending unemployment insurance." Huh? I know 6th graders that would construct an argument better than that. Somehow giving couch potatoes 150 weeks of unemployment payments creates more jobs than a 2 thousand mile construction job and the entire product that would be delivered, refined, and shipped. If you're a Democrat (and you love this guy), this even has to leave you scratching your head.

In any event (concerning your 401K), I truly believe massive stimulus is on the way. Stocks should go up, and so should gold and silver. Of course the U.S. can't afford the stimulus and of course a day of real reckoning will hit, but that's in the future. I would consider shifting some of that ‘cash’ in your 401K into a more growth oriented fund investment. We continue to lean long into this rally and it's going well so far. Let's keep our fingers crossed for more.

The Market:

Up, up and away… yes it’s a Superman market lately that shrugs off bad news like Superman shrugged off bullets. This week showed that J.Q. Public is putting his toes back in the water for the first time in almost a year. Last year J.Q. Public pulled over $39 Billion out of mutual funds, and this week $11 Billion came roaring back into them. It's not a record by any means, but it's a pretty big chunk of change. So why is everyone so optimistic? Well, there comes a time when people think they've weathered the worst: housing collapse, Lehman’s collapse, bailouts, rounds of stimulus, and horrible unemployment. They witnessed America's credit rating get cut for the first time in history. They remember August, 2011 when the market would drop 500 points on words out of Europe, and then gain 400 back, only to lose 300 the next day. J.Q. Public feels like he’s been through it all – and he’s still standing!

But J.Q. Public’s $11 Billion isn't why the market is moving higher. It's moving higher because there's a growing chorus of people expecting The Ben Bernanke to let loose another round of stimulus. I've been saying for quite some time that the next ‘round’ is on its way. This week, if indeed he does mention that more stimulus is coming, fund managers will plow into the market because they remember the market going up 6,000 points on QE1, and another 2,000 on QE2. So if this stimulus would be $1 Trillion, we could see another 2,000-point gain or more.

Now, if The Ben Bernanke and this week’s FOMC meeting produce nothing, and there's no News Conference – then I suggest this market will go down. So that's the deal, this market is rising in anticipation of more Federal Reserve stimulus. If we get it, we could see a very powerful rally that takes us into the fall. I think we will because The Ben Bernanke needs Obama, and Obama needs a rising market in order to get re-elected. It's pretty much assured that it's coming.

With additional stimulus, along with stocks rising, gold and silver will also increase as they are the anti-fiat money and will guard against the inflation that will eat into your dollars. Materials generally do well in a stimulus inspired market run. Last year some of our biggest swing trades were names like UYM. We bought UYM for around $30 and sold it 8 months later for $52 dollars. CLF and ANR did phenomenally well for us as well. We'll be looking at those and quite a few others that aren't so widely tracked going forward.

A reader had a question concerning how I arrive at my ‘Twitter’ posts each day. Every day I scan for particular set ups. I’m looking for stocks with a "reason" to go up, nearing a resistance level, and we have a flat to rising market. When I find some, I post them on Twitter (handle taylorpamm) with their corresponding ‘buy-in’ prices. I normally post them each morning, and if some get up and over their ‘buy-in’ prices – I take them. And then thru this Sunday letter you’ll see what’s remaining in my active portfolio, and the ‘stops’ that I have set for those ones that I am still holding. Lately – if something dips below the price that I paid for it – I normally sell it. Now, because not every stock gets over my ‘buy-in’ price that day I’m forced to keep a running list of some of the old ones that I’ve recommended as well (dating back a couple weeks). I continue to put up new ones as they develop, yet the old one's are still "relevant". For example: on December 11th, I mentioned that a move on CCJ over $19.65 was buyable. Well, it didn’t get over that mark for several weeks – but it’s now sitting at $23.50. What I do is take these ‘radar ideas’ that I tweet about – and load them into my stock trading ‘alert’ system. I let the ‘trading software’ alert me that one of these is getting close to the buy in area – and then I decide whether to pull the trigger.

Tips:
So for all the Twitter followers – thanks – and to reinforce what we’re holding:
- ADBE at 30 (currently 30.06) – stop at entry,
- LRCX at 40.16 (currently 42.45) – stop at 41.00,
- TMO at 50.01 (currently 51.14) – stop at 50.50,
- KBR at 29.80 (currently 32.01) – stop at 31.20,
- STX at 18.61 (currently 20.00) – stop at 19.20,
- SE at 30.20 (currently 31.44) – stop at 30.90,
- FWLT at 20.00 (currently 23.11) – stop at 21.60,
- GLD at 159.49, (currently 162.00) - AND
- SLV at 28 (currently 31.27)

DS writes in with a tip on BroadVision – BVSN – a stock that he purchased for $8.31 on December 12th, and is now at $27.05 – clearing the latest technical resistance level. It’s clearly on a rocket-ship – nice call DS!

As you’ve seen – we’ve been very true to sticking to our stops and just moving on to another stock. We’ll continue that philosophy especially next week.

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: .

Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on “Fearless Investing”:

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 1-15-12

This Week in Barons: 1-15-12:

Why can’t we just keep printing more, and more money?

What if our debts were so great – that we just printed all the money that everyone wanted and handed it out to everyone? The European Central Bank (ECB), (fresh graduates of the “Best Crooks that ever Wore a Suit School”) have taken their marching orders from Professors Timmy Turbo Tax Geithner, and Ben Helicopter Bernanke. They have point-by-point instruction via Mario Draghi (the X-Goldman associate) on how to print money ‘forever’ and hand it out to the banks. In lockstep, the individual European banks have gone to the ECB for a handout. The ECB is lending its member banks 3-year money at 0.75% (which they actually borrowed from our Federal Reserve). Where'd the Fed get it - thin air – just printed it! The ECB (with help from the International Monetary Fund) doles it out and we all party like it's 1999!

In years gone by, had the Federal Reserve done what they’re doing now – the investing world would have vapor locked, the markets would have crashed, corporate bonds would be paying 30% yields, and economic life (as we know it) would have come to a halt. But that was the ‘old days’, and it’s lucky for us that these new geniuses have it all figured out. According to them, we can print forever, debts don't matter, and there's economic bliss for everyone. The problem however is that this ‘really’ cannot last.

Does The Ben Bernanke and the boys ‘really’ think they're genius for discovering that if you print money out of thin air, you can perpetuate economic growth? Sorry that’s been done a thousand times. The only thing The Ben Bernanke has going for him is that because our money is now digital, he can press 9 buttons and create an instant one trillion dollar loan to the Treasury. But the problem is that this has never worked. Not for the Greeks, Romans, Thessalonians, Hasmoneans, Herodians, Weimar Germans, Zimbabweans and any other "ians" you can name. In each and every incident of money manipulation and abuse of the currency, the end result was first inflation, and then crushing deflation.

But, the time frame is what we need to put into perspective. While a small country like Zimbabwe can experience hyperinflation that will stagger your mind in just a couple years (my son actually has a genuine Ten trillion dollar Zimbabwe bill sitting on his desk), when dealing with larger civilizations, it takes decades for them to completely ruin themselves. The clock has been ticking since 1971 for the U.S. (when we went off the gold standard). We have put 40 years under our belt using a completely fiat currency. Since the US has been the single biggest economy of all time – it takes a long time to completely screw it up. We're going into year 4 since the Lehman blown up – yet where are we? Unemployment is rampant, housing still falling, and now Europe is blowing up. This is a slow motion train wreck, whose life expectancy is extended by The Ben Bernanke bucks. Rest assured, we will not break the most basic of economic rules. There has never been a "fiat" currency that has survived. The only other choice is just to pull the pin, let all the defaults happen, watch everything crash and start from scratch. That route won’t happen for two reasons: (a) it's very painful when it's happening and even the vaunted bankers who are in bed with the Feds and Politicians would have to crash and burn, and (b) there are never any guarantees that the people in power at the start of a wicked crash and burn are still in power on the rebound.

We all know that the Euro zone is in danger of breaking up. Greece is still destined to fail. They are going to run that digital printing press as fast and hard as it's processor will allow. For those of you who may think that gold and silver have already had their best days, you should reconsider that thinking.

Consider this, when I predicted that we’d invade Iraq – my reason was simple economics. Saddam was tired of the US dollar falling like a rock against the Euro, so he decided to change his central bank holdings from dollars to Euro's. He even said that he'd rather have Euro-states pay for his oil in Euro's. That right there sealed his fate. I stated at the time, that there was NO WAY the US was going to let petrol sell for anything but dollars. The fact is, the dollar is "backed" (if you will) by oil. We made a deal many years back with the Saudi's that we'd keep our oil off the market if they only sold oil in US dollars. It was the grandest "wink - nod" agreement ever. So, when Saddam went rogue his days were numbered.

Well back in December, Iran made a pact with Russia. When the US slapped the embargos on Iran, they said "Okay, we're going to talk to the other big dog on the street" and that was Russia. What they did, was agree to trade Iran Oil for Russian rubles. This is a massive slap in the face to the US, because we can't just go in and blow them up over not wanting to use dollars for oil any more, because they have Russian backing now. If you had any doubts about going to war with Iraq, erase them. We've been provoking them with everything we have, hoping they'll fire the first shot. Instead they did an end around, and buddied up with Russia. So you can bet the rhetoric against Iran will explode, and at some point, we'll be "going in". When it happens, be prepared for the 50+ dollar oil spike and gold will rise a bit on the "tension" side of things.

But how about the lies we were told less than 60 days ago: “Black Friday was the best in 10 years!” And now we find out that the retail numbers stink, company after company is lowering guidance, chipmakers say there's a global slowdown on everything from smart phones to Televisions, Jim Cramer has called a bottom in housing 4 times in 3 years – yet last week we learned applications to buy again fell like a rock. Oh, and one more item – of course QE3 is coming. In many ways it's already come, as there is absolutely no charter that states that our Fed can bail out Europe, but they just did. Likewise, because our numbers here in the states are just manufactured lies, another round of stimulus is coming. Just this past week they let 3 members of the Fed board run around the country suggesting they wouldn't be against more stimulus spending and more purchases of assets. I wouldn't be surprised at all if The Ben Bernanke comes out later in January and announces himself that they are working up the new plan.

The Market:
We are definitely "in January Effect" mode, but it’s going to be herky-jerky and fraught with pull downs as European news crosses the wires. Same shirt, different day. But right now – it is a proverbial day-trader’s market. For example: on Thursday, we had 8 open positions that we had initiated on various days since the start of the year. As they'd rise, we'd sell half positions, and let the other half ride. So, coming into Thursday these 8 were doing really well for us. Then the news hits on Friday am BEFORE THE OPEN of the market that S&P was going to downgrade a slew of European debt. Boom, our stocks fell like rocks – before the open – so there’s literally nothing you can do about it. Now, when the market was falling on that Euro news, was there any proof that it wouldn't be a 300-point down day? So as the market was falling 80 to 120 points, do you hold your short-term stuff, and "hope" this isn't the "big one" and you're going to lose all your profits? Don't let anyone ever tell you that you can look at a chart and know the answer – because you can’t! So you have to use your best judgment and risk management. We sold some half positions on really strong stuff, and held anything that didn't violate our stops – which were all set for “at entry” or higher.

I think that this current rally has more legs, but ONLY for a couple reasons. A lot of fund managers didn't make big numbers last year. In fact, almost 80% didn't do as well as the indexes themselves, so they are desperate for a good quarter, even if it's only one. Secondly, there's no question that with The Ben Bernanke's goons talking about more stimulus, we are probably getting close to QE3 here in the states. (Granted I guess it should be called QE4 because QE3 is the "interest rate twist" game they've put in place to get longer-term rates lower.) Thirdly, if a Republican takes the office, you know that The Ben Bernanke's days are numbered. Thus, he better do what ever it takes to put lipstick on this pig and keep the market up, because without Obama in the Whitehouse, The Ben Bernanke is going back to teaching perverted economic theory.

Depending on the size of QE3, it could propel the market up for a few weeks to several months, but it’s a fake rally. Just like QE1 took us from 6.6K to 12K, and then we faded. So did QE2 took us from 11k to almost 14K, and then we faded. Now that the interest rate twist isn't provoking more home buying, The Ben Bernanke is going to do QE3, and if it's big, we'll see all new market highs this year, before the wheels fall off. If QE3 is not big enough, we'll pop and drop, and likely trade sideways.

Tips:
So for all the Twitter followers – thanks – and to reinforce what we’re holding:
- UA at 75.69 (currently 77.36) – stop at 76.50,
- SPY at 124.08 (currently 129.24) – stop at 128
- STX at 18.61 (currently 19.56) – stop at entry,
- SE at 30.20 (currently 30.89) – stop at entry,
- GDXJ at 25.77 (currently 26.37) - stop at 25.90,
- STLD at 14.68 (currently 14.32) - stop at 14,
- FWLT at 20.00 (currently 20.96) – stop at entry,
- PFE at 21.91 (currently 21.81) - stop at 21.30
- GLD at 159.49, (currently 159.40) - AND
- SLV at 28 (currently 28.95)

This is a full-boat for us – so normally we won’t carry more than 8 stocks (outside of the GLD and SLV ETF’s). We’ll be very quick on the trigger next week in terms of sticking true to our stops.

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: .

Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on “Fearless Investing”:

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 1.8.2012

This Week in Barons: 1-8-12:

I’m still Old enough to Remember, but not (yet) Old enough to Forget:

The market did something very interesting on Friday; it failed to respond to a mindless jobs report by roaring higher. That speaks volumes of what the investing public is doing. In terms of the numbers released this week:
- Friday’s jobs report said that 200,000 jobs were created in December, and I’m sure J. Q. Public said – ‘Wow, maybe my kids (or me) can find a job.’ Not so fast, because short-term delivery drivers and extra help at retailers accounted for 45k of those jobs. And subtracting off other seasonal variations - Trim Tabs reported that the jobs created number was actually 38k and not 200k.
- Thursday’s ADP ‘Unemployment’ report came in as a seasonally adjusted to 376k new unemployment claims files – but also the non-seasonally adjusted number was actually 525k (ugh)!

The interesting part of both of these reports is that Wall Street behaved rationally. That means that we’re going to need ‘spectacular’ news in order to move this market higher – because the real facts are beginning to get in the way of ‘fantasy’ – even on Wall Street. Some real facts from this week:
- American Eagle Outfitters - the teen apparel retailer – cut its Q4 guidance,
- HTC – the mobile phone maker – will cut its Q1 chip orders by 20% blaming slowing global demand for high-end smartphones,
- Nucor - a steel maker - announced that it was closing Nuconsteel due to faltering returns, and
- J.C. Penney and Gap slashed their Q4 outlook.

With real un-employment running around 15%, and under-employment running around 40% - I took a few minutes this morning to look at the job listings in Pittsburgh, PA. The results are potentially not shocking, but they are indeed depressing. I remember my old friends being hired (right out of high-school, no experience, 30 years ago) in my old hometown, for a manufacturing position – for $15 per hour. Within a couple of years they were making $21 per hour. In this morning’s paper there is an “Engineering Assistant” job listing:
- Requirements: Bachelors degree in Engineering
- Duties include: Complete familiarity with implementing process control techniques and procedures into manufacturing environments. Analyzing manufacturing process flows continually for the enhancements of quality, cost reduction, and throughput…
- Salary Range: $28,000 / Year

So 30 years ago a person could start with 0 experience for $29,640 / year, and today with a college degree, and experience that person is starting at $28,000 / year. And 30 years ago a Ford F150 cost $8,383, and today it costs upwards of $22,000. So prices on Ford F150’s have gone up 175% - while wages have gone down.

The bottom line of this particular rant is that in order for the markets to go higher this year (and potentially President Obama to be re-elected), we’re going to need to hear "better" news on all fronts. Therefore, please make your financial decisions by digging below the surface, do your own research, and stay safe.

The Market:
Between insider trading, the plunge patrol team, high frequency trading, dark pools, criminal Federal Reserve heads – I really sympathize with anyone trying to predict this market. Therefore when I saw the jobs numbers on Friday, I really did expect everyone to buy the market. Remember, on Jan 3, we closed the DOW right at 12,400 – the next trading day we closed at 12,418 – and the following day we closed at 12,415. That looks very much like a consolidation, ahead of the important (to be released) jobs number. Yet Friday, instead of using those numbers as a base to press higher, the market sagged and closed at 12,359. I don't think we can explain it away as a European problem, or not wanting to hold over the weekend – I think the market just ran out of gas – a.k.a. the buyers just didn't show up.

So does this mean that the “January Effect” is over? We still see some stocks making good chart patterns and pressing higher, but the fact is if the market (as a whole) rolls over, individual stocks will rarely be able to hold up on their own merits. Just like a rising tide lifts all boats, an ebb tide puts them all in the mud. This week we’ve seen stocks that run higher for a dollar, two, maybe three and then "bang" all the way down to where we bought them. So we are going to change our trading philosophy slightly. What we are doing now is going into a stock ‘fairly heavily’ and then selling ‘half-positions’ as it makes a decent gain – and then we exit the entire purchase where we bought it (if the stock drops to that point). We accomplish all of this electronically – naturally.

Now in the case of Gold and Silver, things are equally as bazaar. 80% more silver was purchased the first week of January 2012 than was purchased in January 2011. Now, how can demand for something rise 80% in a year, and yet the price not move up accordingly? It's easy, just ask J. P. Morgan. On Wednesday, the CFTC is going to hold a meeting to determine and clarify 3 rules in regards to “swap” trading (the type of trading in which J.P. Morgan specializes). But wait, the committee has decided that they first need to determine the meaning of "swap". So, they're going to hold a meeting to clarify such things as "Business conduct standards for swap dealers" this coming week, and then they will define the term "swap" in February.

The Gold pits are equally bazaar. Some central banks are clamoring to buy more, while others have sold some to raise desperately needed cash. In Asia, and in Europe, the amount of people buying gold is making new record highs every quarter. But the price is still depressed – why? By calling up your physical gold dealer you’ll find that they have very limited, shippable quantities on any significant buy order. You’ll find that the ability and price to obtain the physical product is indeed growing – which is good news for investors because at some point, imbalances do come to an end. I don't know when, but I think we're getting close. Currently there is tremendous pressure on the SEC and the CFTC to finally come clean and give us back a market that people can trust. They’re taking a long time so that the criminal banks (JPM) can cover their shorts and get properly in the shadows. But I do believe “swaps” and position limits will be defined, and at that time the silver market (in particular) will rise substantially.

I’m still leaning long but there’s no guarantee, so be careful out there. We are no more stable in January, than we were during the fall, so wicked 300-point days could become the norm again. Hold tight, its all going to be jolly fun!

Tips:
So right now we’re holding:
- UNH at 50 (currently 52.78),
- SPY at 124.08 (currently 127.90),
- EP at 25.72 (currently 26.14),
- SE at 30.20 (currently 30.45),
- GDXJ at 25.77 (currently 25.50) - stop at 25.0
- XOM at 86.00 (currently 85.18) - stop at 84.70
- PFE at 21.91 (currently 21.57) - stop at 21.30
- GLD at 159.49, (currently 156.87) - AND
- SLV at 28 (currently 27.96)

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: .

Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on “Fearless Investing”:

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 1-1-2012

This Week in Barons: 1-1-12:

This Ain’t Your Father’s Market Anymore…

Today’s world is so vastly different from just a couple years ago – “This ain’t your father’s market anymore.” Right now, even the most disinterested of economic followers would tell you that Europe seems to be the big problem. But why is Europe in so much debt? It’s because they implemented socialist programs, that were never financially supported. When I was younger I remember seeing a nice car and saying: “I need to learn what to do, so that I can drive that type of car.” Never did I say: "Boy those people shouldn't have such nice things, they should sell all that and give the money to everyone else". I’m wondering - has the American “dream” become the American “entitlement” state?

Remember those ‘Occupy Wall Street’ (OWS) protestors – and their ‘transformational’ placard: “Everything for Everybody.” Well somewhere along the line some basic concepts were missed – and I’d like to thank one of our readers for reminding me of them:
#1 Life isn't fair. The concept of justice - that everyone should be treated fairly - is a worthy and worthwhile moral imperative, but justice and economic equality are not the same. Or, as Mick Jagger said, "You can't always get what you want." No matter how you try to "level the playing field," some people have better luck, skills, talents or connections that land them in better places. Some also seem to have all the advantages in life but squander them. And others play the modest hand they're dealt and make up the difference in hard work and perseverance. Is it fair – that’s a stupid question?
#2 Nothing is "Free." Protesting with signs that seek "Free" college degrees and "Free" health care make protestors look like idiots, because colleges and hospitals don't operate on rainbows and sunshine. The 53 percent of taxpaying Americans owe you neither a college degree nor an annual physical. There are other things that are not free: overtime for workers, trash hauling, repairs to property, and the food that magically appears on tables. Real people with real jobs earning real dollars are underwriting the OWS temper tantrum.
#3 Your word is your bond. When I see demonstrators advocating eliminating student loans debts, I wonder if they realize that they are advocating precisely the lack of integrity that they decry in others. Loans are made based on solemn promises to repay them. No one forces you to borrow money; you are free to choose educational pursuits that don't require loans, or to seek technical or vocational training that allows you to support yourself and your ongoing educational goals. Also (for the record) being a college student is not a state of victimization. It's a privilege that billions of young people around the globe would die for - literally.
#4 A protest is NOT a party. The issue with OWS protestors is that it’s clear – most are doing it for attention and fun. Serious people in a sober pursuit of social and political change don't dance jigs down streets. Please understand your actions cause your pursuit (as noble as it may be) is being viewed as irrelevant to all that are seeing you.
#5 Finally – there are reasons you haven’t found jobs! The truth? Your tattooed necks, gauged ears, facial piercings and dirty dreadlocks are scary and off-putting. Nonconformity for the sake of nonconformity isn't a virtue. Occupy Reality: Only 4 percent of college graduates are out of work! And if you are among that 4 percent, find a mirror and face the problem. It's not them – It’s YOU!

Now consider what's happening in Europe right now as things have disintegrated to the point of no return. The current push is for all the countries involved - to give up their sovereign rights, and hand them over to a group of technocrats in Brussels. These technocrats will then tell the countries what budgets they can run, and how to form their economic policy. Can that be any clearer? The countries actually will need to give up control of themselves – so that a ‘new world order’ could govern them appropriately – Really?

I remember in 1966 Alan Greenspan writing: “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights.”

So, we look back on 2011 and see things never seen in history.
- The Manipulation of Markets. Everyone from Jimmy Rogers to Marc Faber has declared that we do NOT have free markets. As MF Global literally ‘looses’ people’s money – John Corsine (the CEO) serves no jail time.
- We’ve had volatility this year, as never seen before. We had 40 - 90% days this year. That means that there were 40 days when 90% of all the trades and all the volume was to one side, whether up or down. Now from 1996 to 2006, there were only 28 of those sorts of days total - about 3 a year. In 2011 we had 40 such days!

OK in 2012 we know that the world’s economies are on the ropes, and there are only TWO ways out:
- Outright default, where everyone just writes off their debts, the economies implode for a period, and then everyone rebuilds from the ashes. Now once everyone defaults, the first thing to do is to print money in order to rebuild.
- Secondly, the economies can print money as fast as they can in order to paper over the troubles, and put off the pain of default. That always brings the inflation problem.
- The bottom line is that in either situation, whether they print now, or print after default, a "whole lot of money" is going to be created.

2012 is set to go down as one of the most fascinating years in American history. We have an election and our own fiscal nightmare to take care of. Will the billions that our Fed printed and sent to Europe stave off the liquidity problem at the banking level? After all our FED gave 523 banks over half a trillion dollars at basically 1%. These same banks can take that money and buy Italian bonds paying 7%. Italy will then benefit because they won't have to default. The bankers will benefit by getting 6% for "free", and if they leverage that and loan it out, they could light an economic fire. The question is: Will the bankers loan out the money – that is the big question?

The Market
So in 2012 if you can't just park your money in the market, where can it go? Housing? Nope - as much as they've called a bottom in housing about 30 times, housing continues to fall, and foreclosures still mount. In our world, the only thing that still makes sense is short term trading the market, and buying physical gold and silver.

Now I know that many of you are upset over gold’s plunge. At the beginning of 2011 we said that gold would go from $1,200 to $1,600 per ounce – and we got very close at $1,560. But the interesting part of this story is that currently there is a disconnect between the price of the traded element, and the price of the physical element itself. In fact, many places won't honor the spot price of gold, because the physical metal is selling for much more than the paper. Remember, there has never been a time in the world’s existence that the price of gold EVER went to zero – you can’t say that about any other fiat currency!

The stock market itself (as you all know) doesn’t belong at these levels, yet it could go higher with all this funny money. Then again if we cause a war in Iran that pushes oil over $200 per barrel – then we could easily see the DOW at sub 8k levels overnight. But one thing is certain, and that is you can't just "set it and forget it".
- You have to trade this market, or be out of it.
- This year we are going to see more volatility, and more insanity.
- If you can't be nimble, you'd be better off staying away.

In the short term, we are now in January, and "often" we get the January effect. This is when fund managers get their "new year pension money" and plough it into the market. Usually they focus on two places:
- They put a lot in the stocks that worked well in the year before,
- And they put "some" in stocks that have been clobbered to death, looking for a strong rebound.

Will we see a January effect – we should but it’s not written in stone. Even though this year brings major challenges, let me wish you a great new year. Don't forget gold and silver. Yes they're down – they’re supposed to be down, and they'll be back. Keep an eye on your personal safety, and remain aware of your surroundings. Crime is on the rise and will continue in that direction.

Tips:

So right now we’re holding:
- UNH at 50 (currently 50.81),
- SPY at 124.08 (currently 125.43),
- EP at 25.72 (currently 26.85),
- SE at 30.20 (currently 30.75),
- JCP at 34.05 (currently 35.15),
- HEK at 6.51 (currently 6.64),
- GLD at 159.49, now @ 152 - AND
- SLV at 28, now @ 27.07

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: .

Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on “Fearless Investing”:

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 12-25-11

This Week in Barons: 12-25-11:

‘I Heard the Bells (of the Cash Register) on Christmas Day…’

Wall Street loves Santa Claus, but Santa has been very elusive this year. The Ben Bernanke, knowing that he's going to have to juice Europe to keep them from collapse, has been stubborn about giving away free money. So, let's just examine why we gained those 300+ points this past week. Not long ago the ECB (European Central Bank), with help from our Federal Reserve, told the Euro region that they'd lend banks all the money they need, at about 1%, for the next 3 years. Now everyone knew that a lot of European banks needed this kind of infusion, and we thought that about 250 banks would come calling. Well, when the lending window opened and 523 banks lined up to borrow $645 Billion we were all taken by surprise and the markets rejoiced. But why would the markets be so happy to see all those banks needing so much help? Well, what’s really needed is that Spain, Italy and the other PIIGS be able to sell bonds, so they don't go broke. And because of their legal charter, the ECB cannot directly lend to countries. So what better than to have the banks borrow all the money, and then have the BANKS lend to the countries by buying up all the sovereign bonds. That way the banks get income, and the countries get their badly needed liquidity. Now, my guess is that ‘NONE’ of this was a loan but rather it was all ‘free money’. This effort saved the banks, and it might just kick the sovereign debt problem down the road a bit. It might let the banks be a little bit more footloose with lending, since they know that if they lend out the money they got at 1% for say 5%, they'll make a sweet profit, and if no one pays them back – what the heck the FED will give them more.

Anyway – as we stroll around the world – not much has changed – we see:
- The Bank of Japan lowering its outlook for the economy for the second month in a row, saying that the pick-up in activity has paused, and that there are spillover risks from the U.S. and the Eurozone. Data released earlier showed Japan's exports fell 4.5% in November from a year earlier, the second consecutive month of declines.
- Gas costs have risen dramatically for consumers. Although pump prices have been falling, consumers have spent more money than ever on gasoline this year. Based on recent demand trends, consumers will have spent $481B on gas in 2011 vs. $389B last year. Therefore, each U.S. household will have spent an average of $4,155 on gasoline, 8.4% of an average family's annual income.
- The November Existing Home Sales shows contract failures at an alarming rate. 33% of National Association of Realtor members report seeing a cancellation caused by a declined mortgage application contract last month, compared to only 9% a year ago.


The Market:
The market had that huge up day this week. The right people were told that the ECB was going to push half a trillion dollars into the Euro zone. We gapped open in the morning – so that the only people that could take advantage of the entire move were Senators, and naturally Goldman Sachs. The rest of the week was spent verifying that we could stay at these levels for at least the short term. I think they'll add a bit more to the pot early this week, then it might tail off some. We should get a "January effect" heading into the new year, where pension and fund managers dump their new year money into the best performers of the previous year, looking to get a nice fat first quarter gain.

I'm going to wrap this up with a holiday wish – and truly wish you all the very best. Merry Christmas to all – and to ALL a Good Night!

Tips:
2011 was an interesting year indeed. I always like to review and compare our results with others – mostly in order to learn. It appears that we’re going to end up the year up around 24%. The famed John Paulson is off a wicked 30% as we close out the year. The major difference here is that Paulson buys and holds for months at a time, and this year our timeframe was often days. In any event it's not going to get easier in 2012. The over riding debt issues remain. The European crisis is still there, not to mention: North Korea, Iran, and the Presidential race. There will be no shortage of volatility in 2012.

This week we bought the SPY which is the proxy for the S&P 500. We also purchased United Healthcare (UNH), J.C. Penny (JCP) and a handful of others (see below), which are doing well for us considering we bought them this past week. But there's going to be some others to consider as we move into the year-end and January.

So right now we’re holding:
- UNH at 50 (currently 51.35),
- SPY at 124.08 (currently 126.59),
- EP at 25.72 (currently 26.01),
- SE at 30.20 (currently 30.87),
- JCP at 34.05 (currently 35.67),
- HEK at 6.51 (currently 6.95),
- GLD at 159.49, now @ 156.19 - AND
- SLV at 28, now @ 28.30

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: .

Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on “Fearless Investing”:

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 12-18-11

This Week in Barons: 12-18-11:

‘Twas the Week Before Christmas – and We’re Up 23% on the Year…

For the most part Europe is "Closed", and that seems to have left a vacuum of topics to chat about – yes? Hardly. Believe me when I say, things are not rosy here in the U.S. as Morgan Stanley just announced 1,600 job cuts. The leading business school candidates are now seeking employment outside the banking sector. And leading Hedge Funds owned by such notables as Paulson and Tilson are down hard for the year. Part of the reason gold took such a wicked pounding last week, was that Paulson sold millions of shares (rumored 11M) of the GLD to raise cash for all the people that wanted out of his fund. Why, because his fund is down 28% for the year! Whitney Tilson is down 25% for the year, and hundreds of hedge funds are rumored to be in the process of closing. Fortunately, our trading account is still up over 23% for the year, which is not spectacular (by our measure), but certainly not as bad as some of these "Headline Stars". One of the benefits of being a "small player" is that you can be nimble. And with a market that has seen more up and down chop this year than any year in history – the investors that couldn't be 'nimble" got killed.

The ONLY thing I'm willing to be invested in long term is gold, silver and a few related mining stocks. Until this global train wreck is complete, I don't trust anything in the market. For example: look at MF Global. Even if you owned NOTHING, and your money was sitting in CASH in the fund, the crooks stole it – invested it in Europe – and now they can’t find it!

Currently, we own a significant amount of gold, and a decent amount of silver. Some will ask: “When do you stop buying?” My self-imposed "top" for gold is going to be in the $2,000 to $2,200 range. When gold gets to that $2,200 level I will stop purchasing gold and continue to purchase silver. In many respects, silver is a better supply and demand story than gold. I believe that in the years to come, silver will see $80 to $100 dollars an ounce. So at $30 currently – silver has a real chance of rising 200%, vs gold @ $2,000 can’t give me those kinds of returns. The other question is: “When do I sell?” My answer is always the same: “When you need money.” Gold and silver are nothing more than savings accounts, but instead of putting in dollars, you put in metal coins. So when it’s time for college, or a house, or retirement you tap into your savings account. The other "time" we will be selling is when the end game of our US dollar is complete and we have either: crashed, been replaced by something new, OR defaulted. In other words, gold is the insurance policy against all the ills we see. And when the world presses the ‘reset’ button – we will want to be able to buy those new dollars.

People also ask: “What about the mining stocks?” Well, the mining stocks are indeed more risky. The miners dig the precious metals out of the ground. If you have good product coming out, and you can keep your costs of extraction low, then you are making a fortune. A lot of the miners are operating on costs that made them a profit with gold at $700, so imagine how much they're making with gold at $1,600? Yet as stocks go – they’ve truly stunk out loud – why? (1) Unstable foreign governments make mining the precious metals harder each year. (2) Environmental pushbacks against mining get tougher year in and year out. And (3) the over riding reason is that when markets are in a panic, they look at the miners as "stocks" first and a back door to the metal second. So when the market is plunging for 1,000 points nobody sits and says: "I should keep the miners because they have the gold!" No, they dump them and ask questions later. There are 13 "significant mining" stocks that pay dividends. Yet the single highest return is from NEM at about $1.40 annually (which is 2.3%), and then comes FCX at just $1.00 annually, (2.7%). Now, if those miners were paying 5% or 6% - then people would hesitate to dump them, their shares would soar and even a market melt down wouldn't kill them. Therefore, the miners will continue to be volatile and relatively driven by the overall market. I do think that as a whole they've been sold off too much and the GDXJ appears to be a nice buy, but the fact is I still only “trade” the miners and not "invest" in them for the long haul.

Having said that, if you had invested $10,000 in the basket of the 13 big miners that pay dividends in the year 2000 (AEM, AU, ABX, BVN, FCX, GG, GFI, HMY, KGC, NEM and RGLD) – you would now have an investment worth $94,000 – a 22% annualized return. However, you would have had to sit through a period from late 2007 to mid 2008 where their value crashed from $96,000 to just $34,980 along with the rest of the market.

In terms of the U.S. economy: in years gone by you would let an economy go through the death throes, default, and have investors run in and pick up the good stuff, toss out the bad stuff and "start over". But things are different now. The world is intertwined like never before, and we are all witness to a global reset. If it was "just" Europe, or “just” the UK, or “just” the US – that was bankrupt we'd be ok. But it's everyone from Japan, to most of Europe, to the UK including Ireland, and the US that are mired in crushing debt, and slowing economies – all caused by the global housing bubble. And even China is facing something they will not admit – their economy is on the ropes.

It's my opinion that we're in a slow motion train wreck. And between now and the ‘global reset’ we're completely dependent on The Ben Bernanke's printing press. If he prints a few trillion, the markets soar, and countries function. If he doesn't print enough, the markets fall, and America implodes. I believe we're going to see the DOW below 6,600 in our future. I believe the world will mire in a dark depression for a few years. The “when” is a little fuzzy because countries can keep playing "kick the can" by printing more money. But like all games, scams, and schemes, they come to an end when the system can no longer support them. My guess is that point is in late 2012 and into 2013.

So, if/when the Fed does another round of mega stimulus to save Europe and the US, we will get a giant pop out of it – possibly propelling us up and into the DOW 15,000 range. But then it would be lights out, because there could be no more mega stimulus, due to inflation being greater than 15%. If we don’t get the mega stimulus, then things continue to break down – a little here and there – with ultimately the big swoon coming in. In either case having some gold and silver lying around should get you through it all just fine.

The Market:
It's the last call – 9 trading days left until the end of the year. Everyone’s trying to drum up some excitement and get the market higher, but it's a massive struggle. Without The Ben Bernanke’s money, there is more money flowing out of stock funds than into them. On Friday we didn't hold the early gains, but we ended the day statistically flat. I suspect they're going to try and move us up Monday thru Wednesday, and then get flat on Thursday and Friday.

One thing we will have to worry about is the tax selling that's going on behind the scenes. Hedge funds will be dumping things that can create a tax advantage against their winners, and sometimes that gets a bit too "out of hand". Then of course what we often see is the "January Effect". The “January Effect” is when the pension funds come into the New Year with fresh deposits, looking to jump into last year’s winners. That gives the first quarter a good shot at looking decent. Now, factually over 70% of the time the “January Effect” has worked in moving the market higher.

We'll be trying to lean on the long side into the week, but we are definitely going to have to take profits quickly. Although it's possible we could roll over and fall from here, it would be fairly unusual in a historical sense. I tend to think we have one more shot at higher, and then we're going to see some roll over pain. Then with a bit of luck, we'll use the “January Effect” to ride that home.

Tips:
For those of you following me on Twitter – we sold out of the banks last week, MS, BAC and Goldman Sachs (GS) – with a nice profit – and are fairly slim right now.

Currently we have:
- GLD at 159.49 – now at 155.49,
- SLV at 28.00 – now at 28.85, (bought more last week).

A shout out to Jim T for noticing that the Divergence between (lower) Labor Compensation and (higher) Corporate Profits is at its highest point in over 40 years. Think that’s leading to any discontent?

A shout out to John for pointing out the chart breakdown in the Gold sector – and the easiest path going forward for the market could be ‘down’ – especially after the early part of January. Absent printing, the deflationary risk will cause The FED to add liquidity to make up for the contraction in the private sector and that will ignite the next phase in the gold run. This could (however) take a couple of quarters – but could be just in time for the November election.

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, RF Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: .

Please write to to inform me of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference .

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of my thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower - "taylorpamm" is my handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on “Fearless Investing”:

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 12-11-11

This Week in Barons: 12-11-11:

The Euro – Arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic
Many people think that the European Union was some form of agreement to get all the countries able to do commerce more easily, instead of having 17 different types of currency and 17 different interest rates. And at 50,000 feet that sales pitch sounds very much believable. But what if their founding was really all about safety. In the U.S. we’ve never been invaded by Hitler, seen millions die in trenches, and before that had England, Spain and France lobbing musket and cannon balls at each other. After centuries of war Europeans wanted an ever-lasting peace. The difficulty here is taking 17 "cultures", and melding them into one interest rate/one currency/one work ideal. For example: Germany is full of hard working people, enormous exports, tremendous precision and quality. While Greece is socialist to the extent that people vacation more than work, exporting very little, and living off the government. Time has proven that these two cannot function under one economic rule. As one can imagine the German people are none too fond of having to adjust their work lives, and their savings habits to bail out the ‘Club Med’ folks. But, there is indeed a plot to figure out this nightmare, and to do so we need to go back to 2008 in the U.S. to figure it out.

In 2008, the U.S. had a housing "Ponzi scheme" the likes of which the world has never seen: from politicians that had plans to get every person in a house, to greedy bankers that sold fraudulent mortgage backed securities (MBS's) around the world, to a credit explosion that ‘financially’ interconnected everyone.
So, while the politicians played to the masses of people with declining wages, and created the "bubble", you know that behind the scenes The Ben Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner and the rest of the Goldman Sachs alumni said: "Don't worry about it. Make the loans; take in the fees. It won't be evident for several years that it's a massive nightmare. Then package all of it up, and make more fees selling the Mortgage Backed Securities to all the pension funds around the world. You'll take in more billions in fees". And then someone asked: "But what happens when they're all found to be junk?" To which the reply had to be, "That's not a problem – the U.S. Federal Reserve will make sure all the major banking institutions that buy this stuff, will be made whole". Then they asked: “Can we really make Europe whole?” The answer: “Legally no, but in reality – you bet!” The rest is history and for the longest time I was wondering why none of the European Banks were screaming lawsuit? Well recently (via the Freedom of Information act, along with several lawsuits from Bloomberg) we found that the Federal Reserve had lent/given European institutions some $16 TRILLION. And when Congress asked The Ben Bernanke, where's the money? He replied. "I don't know". The same response John Corzine gave last week when asked about the missing $1.2B from MF Global!

Okay, now we fast-forward to Greece going under, and 5 other countries very close indeed to declaring insolvency. Now the ECB of Europe is often thought of as Europe's Central bank and in some function it is. But the ECB is legally not allowed to lend to any Government. And all totaled – countries needed over $6 TRILLION to stop the bleeding. Who has $6 TRILLION – enter Timothy Geithner from the U.S. But one of the caveats of this lender (and one of the articles of the ESM) is that a "Committee" of 8 Government regulators, and 17 "Board Members" be formed. These 25 people will have TOTAL control of all the member countries budgets, austerity rules, margins, rates, ratios - you name it. Now where it gets interesting is that the heads of ALL of these banks, and Governments are Goldman Sachs employees, advisors, or X-Goldman Alumni! Just a coincidence? I think not!

So here is how I think this will all play out. The ECB will stand firm against lending to the individual countries and randomly printing money. The insolvent countries need that money desperately, and will be forced to join the ESM (controlling ‘board’ etc.). When everyone is then "under the umbrella" of central command, the money will flow. But if it’s illegal for the ECB to lend money, where’s the money coming from? The money will come from the U.S. Federal Reserve. They will do what they perfected in the housing bubble years, which is to get money, attach fees to it, and lend, lend, and lend to all the sovereigns. And they’ll funnel it through Goldman to ‘Get Er Done’! So the bankers are in line to make ‘Billions’ providing the money those countries need. And who’s on the hook for it: The U.S. taxpayer!

The Market:
Because of Europe, our market has been an up and down mess. Without the huge "bazooka" of money, the bankers don't get all those great fees, nor do they get to go speculate in the markets and drive prices higher. But the bazooka is coming, they just have to get it all set up. When everyone is "on board", the money will indeed flow. Because the money spigot isn't currently on full blast, the market has had a hard time driving itself higher – for example: up days still come on lower volume than the down days. Too many fund managers, desperate for performance want with all their might to just buy-buy-buy, but they still worry that something in Europe will beat them up again. They've been through it too many times. But I tend to think that they're going to try one more time to push this market over the resistance line of DOW 12,200. If it makes it (and I believe it will) we should have one last hurrah run that takes us close to Christmas and nearly challenging the 12,600 level.

Now (don't get me wrong), we don't deserve a rally. Just this week, Cargill a huge private company with it's roots in lots of businesses, said that sales were slowing quickly. DuPont, Corning and the chip sector all warned that they wouldn’t make their yearly numbers. The true economic news is terrible. This week we heard that initial jobless claims fell to 381K. Well, those are "seasonally adjusted" numbers, and without the adjustment the initial claims soared by 120K to over 500K. But yet again, fundamentals mean nothing, because it’s all about free money. The Fund Managers "need" a decent market for year-end bonuses, and they don't have much time left to make it happen. So, if we get through 12,200 and close above that for 2 sessions, it's my guess we run wild for a while.
Oh, one last note, when the money spigot is opened for Europe, both gold and silver will make their next move higher.

Tips:
For those of you following me on Twitter – you know that I purchased more Gold and Silver last week.

Currently we have:
- GLD at 159.49 – now at 166.55, (bought more last week),
- SLV at 28.00 – now at 31.37, (bought more last week),
- MS (Morgan Stanley) at 15.08 – now at 16.4 – my sell stop is 15.5
- BAC (Bank of America) at 5.31 – now at 5.75 – my sell stop is 5.31
- GS (Goldman Sachs) at 92.1 – now at 101.70 – my sell stop is 96
- MGN (Mines Management) at 2.33 – now at 2.47 – my sell stop is 2.40

With the U.S. backstopping Europe, it means we will be printing more money. That means inflation, and that means Gold will rise both on the idea of an inflation hedge, and as an alternative currency. Silver will rise on the inflation hedge, and the ever-continuing global demand for it both as an investment and for industry. Frankly they're both seriously in play and will be until the Fat lady sings – and she’s not even in the dressing room!

We’re still looking at the junior minors, but the only one we pulled the trigger on as of yet is MGN.

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: “taylorpamm”.

Please be safe out there!

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Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations. Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers. This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson