This
Week in Barrons – 12-1-2013
A Nice Couple of Thanksgiving
Stories:
Because Thanksgiving is my most
favorite holiday, I would rather not dwell on the #WalMartFights, or any other
goings on that turned caring individuals into ferocious zombies – fighting,
punching, and tasering each other over junk they don’t need and often with
money they don’t have. (Yes, in one
instance a fight over an electronic device caused one woman to use a Taser on
another.) I would rather talk about 2 thoughts – submitted by SF – that
should leave a smile on your face.
Many years ago, Al Capone virtually
owned Chicago. Capone wasn't famous for anything heroic, but was
notorious for immersing the windy city in everything from bootlegged booze and
prostitution to murder. Capone had a lawyer nicknamed "Easy
Eddie." He was Capone's lawyer for a good reason - Eddie was very good.
In fact, Eddie's skill at legal maneuvering kept Al Capone out of jail for a
long time. To show his appreciation, Capone paid him well. Not only
was the money large, but Eddie received special dividends, as well. For
instance, he and his family occupied a fenced-in mansion with live-in help.
The estate was so large that it filled an entire Chicago City block. Eddie lived the high life of the Chicago mob,
and gave little consideration to the atrocities that went on around him. Eddie
did have one soft spot, and it was for his son that he loved dearly.
Eddie saw to it that his young son had clothes, cars, and a good education. Price was no object. And, despite his
involvement with organized crime, Eddie tried to teach him right from
wrong. Eddie wanted his son to be a better man than he was. Yet,
with all his wealth and influence, there were two things he couldn't give his
son; he couldn't pass on a good name or a good example. One day,
Easy Eddie reached a difficult decision. He wanted to rectify wrongs he had done.
He decided he would go to the authorities and tell the truth about Al
"Scarface" Capone, clean up his tarnished name, and offer his son
some semblance of integrity. To do this,
he would have to testify against The Mob, and he knew that the cost would be
great. But he went ahead and testified. Within the year, Easy
Eddie's life ended in a blaze of gunfire on a lonely Chicago Street.
But in his eyes, he had given his son the greatest gift he had to offer, at the
greatest price he could ever pay. Police removed from his pockets a
rosary, a crucifix, a religious medallion, and a poem clipped from a magazine.
The poem read: "The clock of life is wound but once, and no
man has the power to tell just when the hands will stop, at late or early
hour. Now is the only time you own. Live, love, toil with a will. Place no faith
in time. For the clock may soon be still."
Changing gears a little bit. World War II produced many heroes. One such man was Lieutenant Commander Butch
O'Hare. He was a fighter pilot assigned to the aircraft
carrier Lexington in the South Pacific. One day his entire
squadron was sent on a mission. After he was airborne, he looked at his
fuel gauge and realized that someone had forgotten to top off his fuel tank.
He would not have enough fuel to complete his mission and get back to
his ship. His flight leader told him to return to the carrier.
Reluctantly, he dropped out of formation and headed back to the fleet. As
he was returning to the mother ship, he saw something that turned his blood
cold; a squadron of Japanese aircraft was speeding its way toward the American
fleet. The American fighters were gone on a mission, and the fleet was
all but defenseless. He couldn't reach his squadron and bring them back
in time to save the fleet. Nor could he warn the fleet of the approaching
danger. There was only one thing to do. He must somehow divert the
Japanese aircraft from the fleet. Laying aside all thoughts of personal
safety, he dove into the formation of Japanese planes. Wing-mounted 50 caliber
guns blazed as he charged in, attacking one surprised enemy plane and then
another. Butch wove in and out of the now broken formation and fired at
as many planes as possible until all his ammunition was spent. Undaunted,
he continued the assault. He dove at the planes, trying to clip a wing or
tail in hopes of damaging as many enemy planes as possible, rendering them
unfit to fly. Finally, the exasperated Japanese squadron took off in
another direction. Deeply relieved, Butch O'Hare and his tattered fighter
limped back to the carrier. Upon arrival, he reported in and related
the events surrounding his return. The film from the gun-camera mounted
on his plane told the tale. It showed the extent of Butch's daring
attempt to protect his fleet. He had, in fact, destroyed five enemy
aircraft. This took place on February 20, 1942, and for that action Butch
became the Navy's first Ace of W.W.II, and the first Naval Aviator to win the
Medal of Honor. A year later Butch was killed in aerial combat at the age
of 29. His hometown would not allow the memory of this WW II hero to
fade, and today, O'Hare Airport in Chicago is named in tribute to the
courage of this great man. So, the next time you find yourself at O'Hare
International, give some thought to visiting Butch's memorial displaying
his statue and his Medal of Honor. It's located between Terminals 1 and
2.
So what do these two stories have to
do with each other? Butch O'Hare was "Easy Eddie's" son. Happy Thanksgiving.
The Market:
The broken record plays on and on.
Once again for what seems like the 50th time, the market is sending
signals that it is exhausted and wants to take a nap. The signals tell us that it would like to correct
some of the insanity that has pushed it to daily, all -time highs. But we've seen the market set up to correct
in the past, only to be jammed higher as desperate people push freshly printed
fiat money into the system, eeking out returns. Will they do that again, or are
we going to see a quick drop of a few percent?
Recent history shows us that the market will ignore all the technical
signs, and just shovel ‘new month’ money into the market and move it ever
higher.
This week brings in the month of
December, and will indeed usher in ‘new month’ money as pensions and insurance
companies invest some of the monetary inflow they have received for the month. It is likely that the inflow will keep the
market (at minimum) flat and potentially up if the inflows are large. But I am a tad concerned later in the week. At some point, fund managers are going to want
to ‘lock in’ some of their gains, and you can only do that by liquidating
positions. The second week of December
is often when this happens, and then we often jump back up and the market runs
to yearend. I am looking for that to
happen again this year.
However, there are quite a few
things out there that could send a ripple through the global markets.
-
The
Middle East is turning ugly as Saudi Arabia and Israel appear ready to make a
strike on Iran's nuclear ambitions.
-
In
Asia, China and Japan are rattling swords at each other, as China established
"No Fly Zones" overtop their two disputed island countries.
-
And
North Korea has restarted a nuclear facility.
So there's no shortage of things to
be concerned about.
Thanks to DS for the following thoughts surrounding
the latest Fed minutes. The minutes show
that the Fed expects
inflation to be tame for years to come. That means that they are unlikely to
raise rates or unwind QE anytime soon. Moreover, the Fed may actually add
measures that expand QE to address falling prices and demand if there is
another economic shockwave.
The takeaway:
- The Fed does not expect inflation to
be anywhere near the 2.5% level that would trigger a rate hike through 2016, and
- Any external shock – the meltdown of
a country in Europe or terrorist attack in the developed world – would
certainly draw more and varied QE with interest rates at zero.
This gives our stock market a
natural ‘upward and onward’ bias, and the bond futures a reason to continue to
rally.
I have been leaning long into this
yearend push, taking some profits along the way. I think if more gains are coming, we should
find them in technology, and in some retail stocks. I'm thinking Starbucks (SBUX) may have some
room to run, as do some of the technology companies behind the gadgets and
games. The key is the XLF, which is the financial Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
The market cannot get far without the
criminal bankers, so if the XLF starts to fade, a market pullback will indeed
happen.
Tips:
The market should have a natural
upward bias for the week – especially with Friday’s retail sales exceeding
expectations. I couple things I’m
looking to get involved with this week:
-
FXY –
buying March, $97 PUTS for between $3.30 and $2.65. The Japanese currency is being ‘destroyed’
and I’m looking for it to bottom around $88.
-
For a speculative
play look at ONTY. It got over the
$2/share price last week, and could ‘technically’ run as far as $5 – but it’s
not for the ‘weak of heart’.
-
Buy-the-dips
on the 3D printers. They corrected and
sorted wheat from chaff with DDD and SSYS coming out on top. My advice is buy-the-dip – especially DDD –
covering it with a weekly covered call.
-
Look at
RiteAid (RAD) in the healthcare space. (FYI
– I still like GILD and INCY.) RAD broke
out last week – and at $5.96 – buying shares and selling the $6 calls could net
you 4% for the week.
-
ACI at
$4.08 is attractive – and covering it with the $4 calls gives you over 5% for
the month.
-
NPSP at
$26.41 is on a tear. Look at NPSP under
$35 or buy the February calls.
-
Twitter
(TWRT) at $41.57 – but ONLY for the $41 or $41.50 ‘covered calls’ – yielding 2%
for the week.
-
Finally
– GDXJ has ‘literally’ been left for dead.
It’s the Junior Gold Miners that has fallen 41% in 2013 – after falling
43% in 2012. When gold wakes up (and it
will) these Junior Miners will rocket higher in epic fashion. Remember the goal here is to ‘buy low’ and
‘sell high’.
My
current short-term holds are:
-
TSO in at 50.56 (currently 58.63) – stop at
57,
-
JNJ
– in at 94.50 (currently 95.24) – SOLD @ $95 - $0.50 gain,
-
CCJ
– in at 20.50 (currently 20.48) – stop at 19.80,
-
OC
– in at 38.44 (currently 39.31) – stop at entry,
-
AXP
– in at 84.14 (currently 86.41) – stop at entry,
-
SIL – in at 24.51 (currently 11.65) – no stop,
-
GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently
120.93) – no stop ($1,237.80 per physical ounce), AND
-
SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 19.29)
– no stop ($19.43 per physical ounce).
To
follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is:
taylorpamm.
Please
be safe out there!
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