This Week in Barrons: 11.02.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-11022025-r-f-culbertson-iplcc 

 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps gained +2.27% in Oct – their 6th monthly gain in a row.  Following 6 consecutive monthly gains, another gain is more likely. (b) Seasonally, November is historically the best month of the year.  (c)  Tech’s surging profit margins help explain their extreme highs in valuations.  Profit margins peak before stocks, and with no margin peaks – then no stock peaks.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: There is a statistical slant towards another month of gains in November.  Yet never be satisfied with a 1-sided synopsis, bad breadth, statistical tails, and/or increasingly expensive valuations.  I suggest you not get too complacent this coming week.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-11022025-r-f-culbertson-iplcc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 10.26.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10262025-r-f-culbertson-n6zbc 

 

Factually: (a) There has been a surge in retail participation since 2020, along with a surge in leverage – especially more recently.  (b) Some leverage indicators are at warning levels.  (c) Small Tech is ticking up vs Big Tech (after 8-years of losing).  (d) Studying the history of markets prompts a pondering of “the path forward”.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: The rise of retail investing and speculation marks a shift and an extremely significant development in modern markets.  If I had to guess I’d say that at least some elements of it are going to end up as ‘the new normal’.  Retail and speculation will stay higher for longer, but that’s also a sign of the times and a marker on the stage of the market cycle.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10262025-r-f-culbertson-n6zbc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 10.19.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10192025-r-f-culbertson-dbmcc 

 

Factually: (a) Stocks found support at their 50-dma, seasonality is turning up, and the trend is intact. (b) FED policy support & earnings are outweighing politics & valuations.  (c) Investor allocations to cash are at the low end of the historical range as investors are all-in on stocks.  And (d) Early tech stock bubbles are showing repeating patterns of market psychology.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: After the latest trade war scare selloff, the S&P500 has found support at its 50-dma, and the 200-dma remains upward sloping.  Yes, stocks are expensive.  Yes, (geo)political risk is in shambles with many a boogeyman lying in wait.  Yes, the macro environment has been a little murky, but central banks are cutting rates, (tech) earnings are decent, and the trend is your friend.   (The music’s still playing.)  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10192025-r-f-culbertson-dbmcc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 10.12.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10122025-r-f-culbertson-rklxc 

 

Factually: (a) Seasonally, it’s not unusual to see volatility flare-ups this time of year.  You tend to see a dip and then a year-end-rally. (b) Speculators are already buying the dip. (c) Several indicators focused on speculative excesses are displaying fragility.  And (d) High valuations warn against complacency.  Overall, it’s 1999 == ‘Déjà vu all over again.’  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10122025-r-f-culbertson-rklxc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 10.05.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10052025-r-f-culbertson-r1vsc 

 

Factually: (a) The S&P500 made its 5th monthly gain in a row in September. (b) The 1990s tell us that there is room to run for this bull market.  (c) Lofty valuations suggest tempering your enthusiasm. In fact, the “S&P493” is overvalued vs its global peers (which are breaking out).  And (d) there is a growing list of major, global, bullish breakouts.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: The bull market moves higher.  While there are various warning signs starting to light up, there’s also numerous global, bullish developments.  These developments signal a bullish broadening of the rally and highlight the merits of looking beyond the Mag-7 for investment ideas.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-10052025-r-f-culbertson-r1vsc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 09.28.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-09282025-r-f-culbertson-osvmc 

 

Factually: (a) Seasonality is soft into Oct, (b) Defensive equities are dangerously discounted, (c) Tech valuations & allocations are at generational highs, and (d) Commodities look bullish and investors are underexposed.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: when many of the most interesting charts are sounding warning signs you just can’t ignore them.  The week ahead is giving off bearish vibes, but it’s the commodity sector (including precious metals) that is getting me excited and that not many people are talking about.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-09282025-r-f-culbertson-osvmc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 09.21.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-09212025-r-f-culbertson-zz9qc 

 

Factually: (a) The S&P500 remains in a strong uptrend, and resuming rate cuts has helped to unlock further new highs.  (b) Global equities are also going strong.  (c)  The wealth effects are speaking louder than soft jobs data.  And (d) There has been a surge in ETF launches recently.  Overall, per Callum Thomas, while there are some concerning signs and signals, the trend is still up and the path of least resistance for stocks looks to be: “Higher for Longer”.   And as we look at this week’s economic session; the changing US economy currently means that macro soft spots are set to get painted over by wealth effects.  It could also be the case that further bad economic news could be good news for the markets.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-09212025-r-f-culbertson-zz9qc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 09.14.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-09142025-r-f-culbertson-znlzc

 

Factually: (a) Tech and Bitcoin both peaked in August when investor allocations to equities reached a record high.  (b) Continued weak labor data makes the odds of a 25bps FED rate cut on Wednesday very likely.  Overall: While tech stocks have been riding a wave of strong fundamentals, the comparable numbers get more difficult going deeper into the year.  Headwinds include: a softening labor market, rising inflation risks, and ‘stagflation’ continuing to be front-n-center.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-09142025-r-f-culbertson-znlzc

 

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This Week in Barrons: 9.07.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-9072025-r-f-culbertson-pazwc 

 

Factually: (a) Tech Stocks and Bitcoin peaked in August – both seeing extremes in investor positioning.  (b) Total investor allocations to equities reached a record high.  (c) Weak labor data raises the odds of FED rate cuts.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: While tech stocks have been riding a wave of strong fundamentals, the higher they climb – the greater the risk.  And that makes August’s technical top in tech – interesting.  Aside from that there is: a softening labor market, rising inflation risks, and the teetering prospect of “good cuts vs bad cuts”.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-9072025-r-f-culbertson-pazwc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.31.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08312025-r-f-culbertson-dvmzc 

 

Factually: (a) The S&P500 closed up +1.9% in August (+9.8% YTD). (b) Future FED rate cuts are likely to be bullish for the markets.  (c) We are due for a seasonal uptick in volatility.  And (d) The bullish broadening theme continues to play through.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: This week’s 3 Key Themes are: (1) Future rate cuts will be bullish for markets and for rotational broadening of the market itself.  (2) There is a real tendency for volatility to spike around Sep/Oct.  (3) There is an abundance of bullish breakouts across sectors and regions which increases the odds for bull-market longevity and the bullish broadening of markets themselves.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08312025-r-f-culbertson-dvmzc 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.24.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08242025-r-f-culbertson-uui9c 

 

Factually: (a) There is bullish broadening, improved earnings breadth, and bullish rotations as markets trend higher. (b) There are plenty of seasonal risk flags and tech early warning indicators firing off as we head into September.  And (c) Credit spreads are at 25-year lows indicating confidence & complacency.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: This week’s 3 Key Themes are: (1) Markets are building bullish evidence via their technicals, rotation, and breadth.  (2) The big picture risk pressures are also increasing due to expensive valuations, AI hype, and all-in positioning.  And (3) The short-term seasonal risk flags are waving.  Reconcile these indicators via hedging, risk management strategies, and paying attention to what price is telling you.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08242025-r-f-culbertson-uui9c 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.17.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08172025-r-f-culbertson-9ca6c 

 

Factually: (a) Sentiment is slipping as we head into a seasonally ‘slippery’ part of the year. (b) Valuation indicators are reaching ‘stupidly’ extreme / expensive levels. (c) More people are ‘negotiating’ with the facts.  And (d) Emerging Market equities are cheap and breaking out.  Overall, per Callum Thomas: It’s just another day in the late stages of the market cycle. Aside from the speculation, there’s a bull market in the number of charts showing valuation extremes and pressure points.  More people are ‘negotiating’ against those facts using phrases like: “valuations don’t matter” and “it’s different this time”, but the facts are ironically what tend to give valuations a greater weight and meaning.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-08172025-r-f-culbertson-9ca6c 

 

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This Week in Barrons: 08.10.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-8102025-r-f-culbertson-j9szc

Factually: (a) Companies are no longer concerned about a recession.  (b) Q2 earnings saw a large surge in big beats.  (c) Tech stock earnings are going vertical, non-tech stocks == horizontal earnings.  (d) Tech sector profit margins are at a cyclical and secular high.  And (e) If Tech used to be expensive, it’s now insanely priced.  Per Callum Thomas: The market continues in its lane - unbothered.  The tendency for higher volatility around Aug-Sept-Oct, and the constant geo-political surprises warns against complacency.  Maybe it’s just as simple as good earnings justifies expensive valuations.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-8102025-r-f-culbertson-j9szc

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