This Week in Barrons: 5.4.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

With the negative Q1 GDP print of last week and the soft CPI reports … the prospect of a disinflationary recession is being raised. Per Callum Thomas: One school of thought is that tariffs will drive inflation higher – while the other school thinks that tariffs will drive costs higher, squeeze profit margins and discretionary incomes, and result in being a demand killer.   In any case, the possibility of a disinflationary recession would certainly be bond bullish, and it just so happens that we’re getting into the part of the year which has historically been good for bonds (from May through to October).  So just as the seasons are turning bad for stocks (“Sell in May”), it may finally be the season for bonds.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.25.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Investor sentiment is bearishly one-sided … but the pros know that this is an eye-of-the-storm type of moment.  The lack of new bad news, some less bad news, and the rebound in stocks is giving everyone a sense of calm and relief.  However, there is a gnawing sense that whether you call it a bull trap, a bear market rally, or an eye-of-the-storm moment – there is another shoe to drop.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.20.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

When you ‘Follow the Money’ … it shows us that foreign investors are voting with their feet.  Per Callum Thomas, they’re concerned about the U.S. Dollar, high valuations, policy uncertainty, and recession risks.  They’re rotating out of U.S. stocks and back into their home markets or gold.  It doesn’t make sense for U.S. assets to trade at such a premium when Trump’s Tariff risk is this high, and our recession risk is over 50%.  [FYI: When you’re priced-for-perfection and then find yourself in an increasingly imperfect world – it’s time to pause and re-think.]  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.13.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04132025-r-f-culbertson-phc8c 

Overall: stocks came back from the brink of ‘tariff tinkering’ and ‘worst-fear dreaming’.  Markets remain unresolved, recession risks are still rising, and it will be tough for bulls to keep control of this market.  Per Callum Thomas: With volatility this prevalent, bull traps and bear market rallies must remain front of mind. A lot of market damage has been done, but U.S. markets are clearly ‘squaring-off’ against the prospect of a Great Restructuring.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04132025-r-f-culbertson-phc8c 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.06.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-462025-r-f-culbertson-tlx6c 

Factually: It would make sense that we rally next week … and make new lows later in the quarter.  The technical and sentiment conditions are ripe for a rebound, but the fundamentals, macro and value factors still look early in a bear market process.  It would take an extremely powerful catalyst to turn this sinking market around.  Per Callum Thomas: Rally-chasers can try their luck, but investors need to exercise patience and caution in searching for the next generational buying opportunity … aka = NOT YET.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-462025-r-f-culbertson-tlx6c 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 03.30.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-03302025-r-f-culbertson-4ubnc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps failed to retake their 200-day moving average.  (b) Whether the 5550 level on the SPX can act as support – is the next big test.  (c) Semiconductor sales and many market indicators are turning significantly lower.  (b) In general, market tides are moving out.  But, Tariff Day is coming.  Per Callum Thomas: “Learn to love the cycle; to be a victor not a victim, and learn to keep things in perspective.”  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-03302025-r-f-culbertson-4ubnc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 03.23.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-03252025-r-f-culbertson-erwtc 

Overall per Callum Thomas: There are a lot of short-term, tactical indicators (e.i. sentiment, math, etc.) are oversold == buys, but all of the medium-to-longer term indicators are bearish and not even close to nearing a BUY.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-03252025-r-f-culbertson-erwtc 

This Week in Barrons: 3.16.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-03162025-r-f-culbertson-9ojqc

Overview: (a) Last week, stocks bounced off of key support levels.  (b) Short-term sentiment is washed out, and arguably the market was looking for any excuse to rally.  (c) The inconvenient truth is that the market has peaked at expensive valuations – giving it a wide path to correct.  Per Callum Thomas: conditions are ripe for a short-term rally, but that rally is likely capped and range-bound at best.  Unfortunately, none of the medium to longer-term risk signals have been resolved, and will require more time to change.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-03162025-r-f-culbertson-9ojqc

This Week in Barrons: 3.2.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barons-232025-r-f-culbertson-7fbbc 

There are many short-term indicators that will make it easy for the market to bounce, but an ever-increasing body of more longer-term/cyclical bearish evidence is sitting on the horizon.  We’re at a dangerous point in the cycle – especially with an uncharted policy backdrop.  Per Callum Thomas: (a) The S&P declined -1.4% in Feb., but is still up 1.2% YTD.  (b) Consumer + Wall Street expectations are coming off their highs, and this spike in bearishness may help the market bounce.  And (c) foreign money-flows have helped maintain the “U.S. Exceptionalism Bubble”.  

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barons-232025-r-f-culbertson-7fbbc 

This Week in Barrons: 02.23.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-02232025-r-f-culbertson-6qwsc

It’s a forever case of mixed signals.  Bonds are telling us that inflation and interest rates will remain higher for longer.  I remain bullish on precious metals and commodities as a hedge due to their extremely cheap relative value, record low investor allocation, and continued set of buy signs.  Per Callum Thomas: Geopolitical chaos is causing investor sentiment, and markets to underperform around the weekend.  We’re Back in ‘da Box as upside pushes are being limited by sentiment shifts and a concentrated / overvalued market.  It will NOT get any easier from here.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 2.16.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-2162025-r-f-culbertson-87qgc 

Market sentiment is shifting from euphoria to doubt as valuations continue to move toward the upper end of their new higher range. Passive index funds continue show inflows over active funds. The risk of recession is low due to: manufacturing being in expansion mode, our GDP currently being at 3.9%, and earnings continuing to beat estimates. Per Callum Thomas, the U.S. dominates the global equities’ arena. The sentiment shift from extreme bullishness and frenzied inflows – to increased skepticism and concern – is simply a part of today’s reality. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 2.9.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-292025-r-f-culbertson-mrixc 

This week’s trading vibe had a distinctly cautionary flavor – as our bull market showed its age and the risk flags began to wave. (a) Sentiment shifted from bull to bear.  (b) Mag-7 stocks sounded warnings on volumes, price, and inflows. And (c) US equity risk premiums remained at multi-decade lows.  Below the surface, sentiment has moved from extreme optimism to murmuring pessimism, and portfolio allocations are starting to reflect that.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 2.2.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-222025-r-f-culbertson-freic 

The S&Ps closed up +2.7% in January, and companies are sounding more optimistic in earnings calls.  Investor confidence is down but economic confidence is up – which sets the scene for a market rotation (mega-cap to small-cap).  Per Callum Thomas: Investor sentiment has slipped as market volatility, policy uncertainty, and valuations have all increased.  This is a characteristic of stocks becoming more range-bound and an upcoming market rotation.  Heads-Up, because that is a different macro-market than what we’ve been used to over the past couple of years.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

 Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1262025-r-f-culbertson-kf4dc

This year will be the moment-of-truth for the AI market.  On one hand you have the “AI Manhattan Project” that will cost $500B just to maintain superiority.  And on the other hand, you have the just-released DeepSeek (Chinese) model which demonstrates the success of nerds + open-source models = superior efficiency at a tiny fraction of the cost and speed == Cheaper, Better, Faster.  Per Callum Thomas: “The big questions remain around commercialization and profitability.  We will begin a period of re-thinking on capex, earnings prospects, and a probable shakeout of our excesses.”  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 1.19.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1192025-r-f-culbertson-li9oc

(1) Markets rebounded off oversold conditions, but sentiment has also shifted from bullish to neutral/bearish.  (2) Retail flows have moved from doubt to hype – further fueling the ‘degenerative economy’ trade.  However, earnings per share for Defensive stocks has reached a decade+ low.  (3) Finally, Tech will not go quietly into this good night, and an interesting play is to: Replace Bonds (in the 60/40 portfolio) with Bitcoin + Defensives.  

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This Week in Barrons: 1.12.2025

 

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Just as retail traders are going all-in on stocks, the indexes are becoming more concentrated and uncertainty surrounding our new fiscal / monetary policies is growing. We desperately need Mag-7 earnings to out-perform.   But a bit of stock market indigestion is to be expected at this stage of the election cycle. Q1 volatility is an understatement with: expensive valuations, stretched investor / consumer sentiment, and policy uncertainty. 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-1122025-r-f-culbertson-l9txc