This Week in Barrons: 07.20.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7202025-r-f-culbertson-bqmqc 

Factually: (a) Semiconductors (along with their market cap weight) made further ATHs. (b) History tells us that the semis are normal & healthy, but need to be monitored. (c) Market cap Put/Call ratios and stretched valuations = stocks that are late in the cycle. And (d) Market booms start with good reason, and end when things get unreasonable. Overall, it’s a good opportunity to take a minute and look at the markets – as they relate to the risk and cycles outlook. Learning from history means learning to identify risks, opportunities, and what may come next. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7202025-r-f-culbertson-bqmqc 

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This Week in Barrons: 06.13.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06132025-r-f-culbertson-dwqic 

Factually: (a) We appear to be going through a “late-cycle reset”. (b) Institutional sentiment is healing, and risk appetite is resurging. (c) Retail investors are running very high equity allocations. (d) Our FED cutting rates may NOT be a good thing. (e) The IPO market is opening-up again. Overall per Callum Thomas: There is mounting evidence for the ‘Late-Cycle Reset’ hypothesis. Just like the late-90’s we’re seeing: (a) A frothy market with increasing pressures, (b) That was given ‘new life’ via a healthy correction (shaking out sentiment but doing little fundamental or enduring damage), and (c) Then will melt-up into a later and larger blow-off top. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06132025-r-f-culbertson-dwqic 

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This Week in Barrons: 7.6.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7062025-r-f-culbertson-zqwoc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps have broken out to all-time highs, and put in a “Golden Cross” uptrend signal.  (b) Seasonality is still bullish, and will turn bearish later in the year.  (c) Sentiment is bullish, but policy risk is also rising.  (d) And we’re back to investors running record high allocations to tech funds.  Per Callum Thomas: This late-cycle reset is running its course via the “re-frothification” of markets.  The bullish momentum we’re seeing could have room to run, but we have renewed QE and Trade-War-Truce expirations starting next week.  I’d sell: tech, U.S. Credit, and the US dollar.  I’d buy: commodities, bitcoin, and precious metal miners.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-7062025-r-f-culbertson-zqwoc 

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This Week in Barrons: 06.29.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06292025-r-f-culbertson-jrnyc

Factually: (a) The price action during the first half of 2025 is characteristic of a “late-cycle reset”. (b) US Semiconductors’ market cap weight reached an all-time-high.  (c) The biggest stocks are much bigger than usual, and vice versa.  (d) Risk pressures continue to increase – generating bullish signals.  Per Callum Thomas: The key theme of this week is a bit of marketplace examination in terms of the pressure points and risks – but if we’re witnessing a “late-cycle reset” we could witness a “What-If” bullish rally.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-06292025-r-f-culbertson-jrnyc

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This Week in Barrons: 6.22.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6222025-r-f-culbertson-zokhc 

Factually: (a) The market is facing a “Wall of Worry” as noise levels are increasing.  (b) Currency flows coupled with negative seasonality are showing a transitional phase in the market.  (c) Again, it’s a perfect storm for increased Geopolitical Risk + Tariffs + the Big, Beautiful Bill to come back into focus.  Per Callum Thomas: the major theme for the short-term is one of worry, pessimism, and we hit a sour-spot.  The long-term optimist in me will say that walls of worry are made to be hurdled, but we cannot ignore the legitimate concerns.Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6222025-r-f-culbertson-zokhc 

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This Week in Barrons: 6.15.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6152025-r-f-culbertson-fv6ac 

Factually: (a) Stocks are stumbling on geopolitics (S&P back below 6000).  (b) Sentiment remains bearish and defensive.  (c) Investor allocations to stocks are historically elevated.  And (d) energy stocks are unloved, undervalued, and unprepared for oil price upside.  TIMING is key.  Per Collum Thomas: Events-n-Excuses have a habit of showing up at times when markets needed a catalyst to justify a move.  When it comes to geopolitics, the stage of the market cycle and the width of its pressure point is more important than the nature of the event.  [FYI: Watch Silver hitting $120/oz. and Gold @ $5,500/oz. over the next 2 years.]. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6152025-r-f-culbertson-fv6ac 

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This Week in Barrons: 6.08.2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6082025-r-f-culbertson-khrkc 

Factually: (a) The S&Ps closed back above 6,000 on Friday.  (b) The third year of a bull market (this year) will be messy.  (c) Small caps remain unloved and undervalued.  It’s become common-place in the 2020’s to follow a rapid collapse with even a faster recovery.  Per Callum Thomas: Third-year bull markets have a range-bound / volatility behavior that produces interesting opportunities – hiding-out in plain sight.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6082025-r-f-culbertson-khrkc 

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This Week in Barrons: 6.01.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6012025-r-f-culbertson-msebc

Just the Facts:  

• - The S&Ps closed up +6.2% in May and +0.5% YTD.  This ranked the U.S. lower than the rest of the world on the YTD returns scale for the first time.
• - Sentiment rebounded in May, and remains historically high.
• - Big Tech is seeing small job growth and virtually zero M&A activity.
• - As life expectancy increases, people are Working-for-Longer.

Overall, per Callum Thomas: This pattern has the Bull-Case being a late-90’s, late-cycle reset, and the Bear-Case being the bull-trap that occurred prior to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-6012025-r-f-culbertson-msebc

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This Week in Barrons: May 25, 2025

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5252025-r-f-culbertson-uacbc

It seems like the sell-off that everyone was waiting for has finally arrived. The market (technically) was ripe and primed for a pullback, and simply awaiting some news or narratives as a reason/excuse. Per Callum Thomas: With the ebb and flow of government policy and macro narratives, there’s a new acronym in town: “RTFL” (Range Trading For Longer). With re-shoring talk rising, and tech capex dominating - where are the raw materials?  Where will we find all the energy to run the new economy?  Where are the materials to build the structures, the products, the devices, and wire it all together?  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5252025-r-f-culbertson-uacbc

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This Week in Barrons: 5.11.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5112025-r-f-culbertson-3oauc

This rally has stalled at resistance, and seasonality is signaling that downside risk is imminent. However, the risk-off signal is fragile, and could switch quickly from bear-to-bull at any time. The word ‘Recession’ is on every earnings call, and could become a self-reinforcing prophecy. Overall, a bull-bear stalemate has set in. Per Callum Thomas: This market is sitting on a window of optimism and anxiety, our floor and ceiling have been set, and there’s an explosive third option lying in wait. Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-5112025-r-f-culbertson-3oauc

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This Week in Barrons: 5.4.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

With the negative Q1 GDP print of last week and the soft CPI reports … the prospect of a disinflationary recession is being raised. Per Callum Thomas: One school of thought is that tariffs will drive inflation higher – while the other school thinks that tariffs will drive costs higher, squeeze profit margins and discretionary incomes, and result in being a demand killer.   In any case, the possibility of a disinflationary recession would certainly be bond bullish, and it just so happens that we’re getting into the part of the year which has historically been good for bonds (from May through to October).  So just as the seasons are turning bad for stocks (“Sell in May”), it may finally be the season for bonds.  Please feel free to read the rest of the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-542025-r-f-culbertson-hzmxc

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This Week in Barrons: 04.25.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

Investor sentiment is bearishly one-sided … but the pros know that this is an eye-of-the-storm type of moment.  The lack of new bad news, some less bad news, and the rebound in stocks is giving everyone a sense of calm and relief.  However, there is a gnawing sense that whether you call it a bull trap, a bear market rally, or an eye-of-the-storm moment – there is another shoe to drop.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04252025-r-f-culbertson-hnaec 

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This Week in Barrons: 04.20.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

When you ‘Follow the Money’ … it shows us that foreign investors are voting with their feet.  Per Callum Thomas, they’re concerned about the U.S. Dollar, high valuations, policy uncertainty, and recession risks.  They’re rotating out of U.S. stocks and back into their home markets or gold.  It doesn’t make sense for U.S. assets to trade at such a premium when Trump’s Tariff risk is this high, and our recession risk is over 50%.  [FYI: When you’re priced-for-perfection and then find yourself in an increasingly imperfect world – it’s time to pause and re-think.]  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04202025-r-f-culbertson-qnqkc 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

This Week in Barrons: 04.13.2025

 

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04132025-r-f-culbertson-phc8c 

Overall: stocks came back from the brink of ‘tariff tinkering’ and ‘worst-fear dreaming’.  Markets remain unresolved, recession risks are still rising, and it will be tough for bulls to keep control of this market.  Per Callum Thomas: With volatility this prevalent, bull traps and bear market rallies must remain front of mind. A lot of market damage has been done, but U.S. markets are clearly ‘squaring-off’ against the prospect of a Great Restructuring.  Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-barrons-04132025-r-f-culbertson-phc8c 

Please feel free to read the blog post: #investing #stocks #bonds #options