This week in Barrons - 4-24-11

This Week in Barons – 4–24-11:

Hunting for the Next Batch of Easter Eggs:

Happy Easter! In this case an Easter Egg means a good thing – something that you get rewarded for when you find it.

Before we start – a good friend recommended that I watch the documentary: “The Inside Job” http://www.sonyclassics.com/insidejob/ I will pass along the strong recommendation to all of you as well.

And if you wish to really dampen your Easter spirits – Steve Forbes writes: “Watch this: http://www.youtube.com/embed/VtVbUmcQSuk. The very scope of these numbers point to an impossible task. So, what's to become of the financial markets, US and otherwise? It's not IF, just when? And, what is the outcome of the fallout?”

The market soared this week – was it due to:
A – great earnings = NOPE.
B – initial jobless claims rising to over 400K new people looking for work = NOPE!
C – the Ben Bernanke coming out and saying: “We may be forced to reconsider our stance on QE3” = BINGO!

About a month ago I said that the Fed would start talking about the need to end Quantitative Easing (QE). I also said that QE would NOT end – that they would just tell everyone that it's ending and then continue it under a different name. Sure enough with Monday’s ‘bogus’ downgrade of the US debt situation, everyone is now talking about how we shouldn’t be too quick to end QE, and maybe we need to continue the programs. So gold, silver, food, and oil all go higher, and the dollar continues to fall.

On Tuesday the oil producing countries CUT production because there is a GLUT of oil sloshing around the world, and they’re running out of places to store it. Running the numbers, I actually believe the oil producers. And what this tells me is that The Ben Bernanke pushed the price of gasoline to $4 so the Banksters could make billions off the trade. So we’re paying 100% more than we should be paying for gasoline, and I guess that makes me feel better about paying 30% more for food – yes? Oh yeah - steel prices are rising between 16 and 18% - so automobile prices will be going up as well.

The Market:
The DOW ended the week at 12,505 – closing over its old resistance level of 12,400, and the S&P closed above the 1,333 level. So this would have to be called a breakout period. In my opinion, we are headed for DOW 12,700. What can stop this market?
- Earthquakes that level nuclear plants and cause radiation poisoning of our oceans = NOPE!
- $110 oil and $4 gasoline = NOPE!
- McDonald’s talking about food inflation = NOPE.
- Market participation being at it’s lowest level since stock ownership began = NOPE.
- How about the dollar being driven lower daily = NOPE!

So (using a religious metaphor) like Easter, does this market just continue to rise? And where do we find the next batch of Easter Eggs? Honestly – I don’t know just yet. Unlike any time in our history where the markets were at least relatively "free and open" - this one is far from it. We have The Ben Bernanke designing policies around moving stocks higher. Sure – there has been back room manipulation ever since the creation of the "Presidents Working Group On Capital Markets" – but never has it been (a) so big, (b) so up-front and in-your-face, and (c) so well funded. So this market will go up until “they” want it to come down, OR until a stampede of trillions of dollars worth of stock owners want out and it overpowers the billions The Ben Bernanke is injecting. When is that?

We have seen gold hit all time new highs, and silver hit 46, just a couple dollars shy of an all time high. Both of these are still showing strength, and as long as The Ben Bernanke is willing to pump billions into the "economy", the value of the dollar will continue to fall, and gold and silver will continue higher. To quote David Tepper: "Sometimes it really is that easy"!

About every other day, The Ben Bernanke hands over $2 - $8 billion to Wall Street banks, to purchase Treasuries. Those Wall Street Banks are then free to go play cowboy in the market. If they were ever to decide not to buy stocks for a few weeks, we'd plunge 2,500 points. So, the only thing to do that makes sense is to continue to "lean long". We are currently carrying 10 long positions in our short term account, and when we get substantial profits in them we sell half, take the proceeds and buy more gold and silver – because the money that I’m making on the trading side – is being offset by the inflation that's eating us alive. If you make 10% on the trading side – but lose the 10% due to ‘food or energy’ increases - you haven't gained anything. However, if you keep your money in gold and silver, they will rise and outpace inflation. Once again: “Sometimes, it’s really that simple.”

Considering that we "broke out" Thursday, we "should" move higher on Monday and Tuesday – and then stumble on Wednesday. We're still in earnings season, which means on any day, someone's earnings news can toss us around a bit, and we never like to hold any stock over its reporting period.

The debate over the debt ceiling is still going on, but there will be a deal! Because no one knows just how bad things could get if we default, they won't take the chance, and the congress will reach a deal. So, that news will probably push the market higher once again. I think we're going to try to attack DOW 12,700, and maybe that might just end up being the "end" of this insane run up.

In any event, I plan on enjoying the day with my family. It's a great day to huddle up and remember what is really important.

Tips:
Our long holds looking like: SLV, NG, AAU, DNN, AVL, SLW and USSIF.

In our short-term holds:
- We still believe in Silver and purchased more SLW and SLV this week.
- FRG, QSURD, NGD, PAL, EXK, SVM, AGRO, SD, NBR, and SQM.
- I’m trying to be more diligent on Twitter – I am ☺
- In fact I’m going to (over the next couple of months) release an iPhone APP – showing my actual trades / advice videos / etc. – stay tuned for that!

In the past week SLW has been in the news. We added to our SLW position at 45 a couple weeks ago. It did it's job and soared to 47 in a couple days. Unfortunately it fell back – but really due to the CEO stepping down – and he’s being replaced by a ‘more than competent’ insider. I am keeping an eye on this – and it’s the stock price that will determine if we stay in SLW or go.

If you’d like to view my actual stock trades – and see more of my thoughts – please feel free to sign up as a twitter follower – “taylorpamm” is my nickname on Twitter – fyi.

If you’d like to see me in action – teaching people about investing – please feel free to view the TED talk that I gave 4 months or so ago now:

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 4-17-11

This Week in Barons – 4–17-11:

I told you so … there I said it ☺
- Two years ago I told you silver (then at $17) would hit $50 – well this week it hit $42 (on it’s way up).
- Five years ago I said gold (then at $500) would hit $1,500 – and this week it hit $1,482 (on it’s way up).

How did I know that Silver and Gold would basically triple inside of two and five years respectively? It had nothing to do with a Fibonacci series, or a ‘cup and handle’ formation – but had everything to do with common sense - seeing bad loans, printing money, and sitting back and saying – people are going to need a stable currency – and what’s severed us well for the past 1,000 years – gold and it’s sister element silver.

Shifting gears - on Friday the government released their Consumer Price Index (CPI report) and according to The Ben Bernanke, prices (excluding food and energy) have only risen 0.1%. I apologize in advance but I cannot hold back my contempt for that elitist scumbag any longer. We all understand that housing is still imploding and because housing is such a large component of the CPI it makes the CPI basically fictitious – but really Benji – how can you make statements saying that you believe “inflation is contained”?

Factually:
- The World Bank calculates that global food prices are 36% above year-ago levels and have pushed an additional 44M people into poverty. (FYI the World Bank defines poverty as earning less than $1.25 per day!) The figures would be far worse if not for rice, whose price has remained stable because the U.S. is NOT being the premier supplier! Benji your printing press has people dying of hunger!
- Obama is gearing up to run again for 2012. His re-election budget is ONE BILLION dollars. It now costs you $1B to buy an election!
- In 2010, according to USA Today, only 45.4% of Americans had jobs – and last year just 66.8% of men had jobs – the lowest percentage on record!
- New unemployment claims rose above the 400,000 level again last week.
- This week, after a two-year investigation, members of Congress laid out a 5,000-page report concerning the housing bubble/toxic loan implosion. Senator Levin especially points to premeditated fraud and outright theft by Wall Street banks, and of course sitting on the top of the heap was Goldman Sachs. Senator Levin states, “In my judgment, Goldman clearly misled their clients and misled the Congress. Our investigation found a financial snake pit rife with greed, conflicts of interest, and wrongdoing,"
- Doesn't anyone find it odd that just this week, the FBI shut down 3 online poker sites, impounding all the money and arresting the owner operators because online poker is "bad" – but that very same FBI can't find ONE criminal banker (Bankster) to take down – after evidence proves they committed “fraud and misled millions”?
- JPM is still illegally naked shorting a third of all silver production on earth.
- On Friday – the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve, and the Office of Thrift Supervision announced a settlement yesterday with the 14 largest U.S. mortgage servicers including Bank of America, Citibank, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, MetLife Bank, PNC, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo. The settlement does NOT fine the banks for any of the wrongdoings but instead lists ways they need to improve their mortgage and foreclosure proceedings. WHAT? I can’t even misplace a parking ticket – but if you're JP Morgan, or Banc of America you get the free pass to steal, lie, cheat, and then have the taxpayers foot the bill for it all?
- And finally, this week regulators decided to EASE the rules on private companies selling stock allowing them to "raise more money without incurring the increased reporting and other requirements of becoming a public company". This is, of course is a bonanza for Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the rest of the Gang of 12, who are looking at goldmines called: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon, and Zynga.

It’s fairly evident that the world hates us – and they a special dislike for the U.S. Dollar. Just last week the nations that actually HAVE MONEY had a meeting about trade and currency, and the U.S. wasn't even invited. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa called for stronger regulation of commodity derivatives to dampen excessive volatility in food and energy prices, which they said posed new risks for the recovery of the world economy. In another dig at the dollar, the five BRICS nations agreed to establish mutual credit lines denominated in their local currencies, NOT in the U.S. currency.

In my view, the U.S. system should have failed – but that’s what capitalism was designed for – failure and then out of failure comes strength. But by letting the Central Bank save member banks, they have bankrupted the U.S. There is no way out. If The Ben Bernanke stops the printing press - we crash immediately. If The Ben Bernanke continues printing money - we hyper-inflate and then crash. Either way a severe downturn is coming to an economy near you.

The Market..
Currently we’re leaning long – however I suspect our biggest gains are in front of us and will come on the short side. But since the U.S. dollar is deteriorating, we don't keep our profits there – we put them in gold and silver, and I think this will be a successful strategy going forward as well.

This market can be called the Energizer bunny because when the government is behind the market – the market ‘just keeps going.’ Virtually every day The Ben Bernanke (thru POMO) gives Wall Street about $8 Billion, and the ‘Banksters’ are required to keep the market up as part of the deal. There will come a day when the collective redemptions of millions of investors will offset the money injected by The Ben Bernanke, and that is when the rug-pull is going to hit.

DOW 12,400 has held as an upper resistance level, and DOW 12,000 has provided the "floor". If the DOW closes over 12,400 two days in a row - you can expect a quick run to 12,700. If we fail DOW 12,000 for two closes, you can be sure we're about to drop ten percent in a short period of time. In the meantime, one of our favorite tactics is to buy heavy, and sell half quickly. This tactic seems to work well in a choppy market. Meaning – if we like ABC over $50 – and at 10:45 it breaks above $50 – we buy X shares (say 2,000) – and by 2 pm it's at 50.60 – we’ll sell half (1,000 shares) and pocket that quick $600 dollars. Then we set our stop at the entry price and let the balance ride. Hopefully over the course of several more days ABC is at $53 or $54 and we then take that trade off the table.

Tips:
Our long holds looking like: SLV, NG, AAU, DNN, AVL, SLW and USSIF.

In our short-term holds:
- We still believe in Silver and purchased more SLW and SLV this week.
- FRG, QSURD, NGD, PAL, EXK, SVM, AGRO, SD, NBR, and SQM.
- I’m trying to be more diligent on Twitter – I am ☺

If you’d like to view my actual stock trades – and see more of my thoughts – please feel free to sign up as a twitter follower – “taylorpamm” is my nickname on Twitter – fyi.

If you’d like to see me in action – teaching people about investing – please feel free to view the TED talk that I gave 4 months or so ago now:

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 4-10-11

This Week in Barons – 4–10-11:

It’s Funny – I wonder what a 3rd World U.S. will look like?

It’s funny – on Friday the big panic was the debate about shutting down the Government for a week as they haggle over numbers and politics that make no difference. When you realize that they're haggling over a few billion in a situation where we're underwater by trillions is kinda funny to me. As much as I do my best to stay out of politics, I have to chuckle when Nancy Pelosi tells everyone that the Republicans want to starve the elderly, while she's a headliner at George Soros's "Take Over the World" conference next week. We (the U.S.) lose over $4 Billion per HOUR into debt – and we’re haggling over $39 Billion in cuts – really? So we lost more money just DEBATING the cuts than what we saved – really?

It’s funny – to think what the U.S. will look like once the US Dollar is removed as the global world currency. You see there are a couple givens here: the dollar will crash, the dollar will be removed from its sole Global reserve status, Greece and Portugal are back begging for bail outs, Ireland has been given the green light to beg next year, and Germany is tired of paying for it all.

It’s funny – we’re talking about cutting defense. We’re presently at war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya – does anyone know why? Allow me to defer to the two-time Congressional Medal of Honor Recipient Major General Smedley D. Butler’s book: “War is a Racket!” The answer is simple says General Butler, “Bankers and the military complex create wars, so they can finance them and make billions.”

It’s funny – we’re talking about cutting social programs. Over two-hundred years ago a politician came out with the statement: “Doesn’t anyone realize that when we ALL start voting for the guy who gives us the most – we’re doomed?” Well, with 44 million people on food stamps, and 1 in every 6 Americans getting some form of Uncle Sam hand out – do you really think that the U.S. is ready to vote for really tough measures?

It’s funny – we’re talking about making changes to credit policies. Well – over the past 4 months we’ve seen consumer credit explode. People have been snookered into thinking the worst is behind us and are (once again) taking on more and more debt. Last week personal credit was expected to come in around $2.5 Billion – it came in at $7.2 Billion. I’ve seen this movie before – the ending will just kill ya!

It’s funny – as much as I’ve preached about inflation – and that someday Silver and Gold will rise both as currency hedges but also inflation hedges – this week we really saw them both take off. Beware – nations inflate and crash and the only thing that comes out smelling ‘like a rose’ is gold and silver.

Many are asking if it's "too late" to get in. Well – I continue to buy silver coins – why – (a) because it's going higher, and (b) there's a pretty good chance that JPM and HSBC have lost control and all their naked shorts are going to burn them. Just this week JPM (J.P. Morgan) was granted a vault and weigh station license. What that means is that J.P. Morgan decided that it was time to be a precious metals warehouse. Why become a warehouse now? My guess is that they’re going to take in a bunch of bullion, and then use it to cover all the naked shorts that they're getting killed on. Just like fractional banking – as long as ALL of the metal depositors don't show up all at once to make a withdraw, they can potentially pull it off. But that tells me (however) that they know the metals are going higher. JPM is horribly exposed to the short side and the "squeeze" is on. So in my opinion it's headed much higher, and I’m still buying.

The Market:
The market is in a very interesting area folks. The line in the sand is at S&P 1,333 and the resistance level on the DOW is 12,400. The market has attempted to attack these levels for days now, and each time gets rejected. A while back I had said to you all that we'd need to see a couple market closes above those levels to confirm they're going to push us even higher, and thus far they can't manage it. You could easily see the DOW "rolling over" from here. But of course this isn't your daddy's market, and we have Bernanke handing Wall Street $8 Billion a day via the POMO program, so it's hard to believe that this isn’t getting put to work and driving things higher.

But the one thing you have to understand is that all the gains are coming from overnight gaps. This is important - watch the futures overnight and they're usually red, and then they start their march towards green. By the open we're often big and green and the market "gaps up" and CNBC gets to gush that all is marvelous with the world. All that's happening here is that the Street is walking the futures up, luring in more and more dollars from “John Q Public” and then using their existing inventory of stock to sell right to him at higher prices.

Again – if The Ben Bernanke can push us over 12,400 on the DOW – the next stop is 12,700. However, if they can’t get us over 12,400 we may very well be looking at the start of a hefty pull back. On Monday I’d pop champagne over the "agreement" reached Friday night, but until we get a couple good healthy closes above those numbers we're in very, dangerous territory.

Tips:
Our long holds looking like: SLV, NG, AAU, DNN, AVL, SLW and USSIF. If any of you caught the USSIF 12% gain on Friday good for you. That stock is still 80 cents (yes – 80 cents) so it’s an interesting ‘speculative play’.

In our short-term holds:
- We purchased more SLW this week, along with SVN, and UXG.
- Still have FRG, QSURD, NGD, PAL, EXK, SVM, AGRO, SD, NBR, and SQM.
- Obviously the metals did very well this week – congrats to all of you who had those with me!

I am trying to be more diligent on Twitter at least in the early mornings when I do most of my business.

The oil space continues to scare me - The shale drillers last week - Approach Resources (AREX), GeoResources (GEOI), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) – have all started to move south and we have not purchased as of yet because our recipe is: rising market, a catalyst, and a technical break-out.

If you’d like to view my actual stock trades – and see more of my thoughts – please feel free to sign up as a twitter follower – “taylorpamm” is my nickname on Twitter – fyi.

If you’d like to see me in action – teaching people about investing – please feel free to view the TED talk that I gave 4 months or so ago now:

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

This Week in Barrons - 4-3-2011

This Week in Barons – 4–3-11:

When you’re up 130% - What do you do?

If you purchased SLW, GG, NBR – others like AVL that are in our long-term holds – you’re currently up over 100% – and someone wrote me asking: “What should I do?” My advice is simply: Wash – Rinse – and Repeat – meaning sell 50% of the winner (so you’re now playing with the house’s money) and go find the next winner!

Moving on, I always wondered – if I was a pension fund manager in Germany (for example), and I had purchased a collection of mortgage backed securities (all rated AAA by the three US ratings agencies) – I would have been suing the world when I found out that what I had purchased was junk! But that has yet to happen – why not? Well, this week the Federal Reserve finally had to admit to who was doing all the borrowing during those dangerous years, and most of it was going to FOREIGN banks. According to Bloomberg, foreign banks accounted for at least 70% of the $110.7 billion borrowed during the week in October, 2008 (which was the ‘record’ week). Arab Banking Corp., the lender partly owned by the Central Bank of Libya, received 73 loans from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the 18 months after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Ah – at least now we know that there was ‘obviously’ a deal struck between The Ben Bernanke and the foreign central banks to bail them out of anything bad. As we look through the ledgers, tons of the really bad stuff is now the property of The Federal Reserve, and that is why The Ben Bernanke fought so hard to keep us out of his books. Now ask yourself how you feel about bailing out foreign banks? Ask yourself how you feel about The Ben Bernanke - knowing his buddies at GS, JPM, and others were packaging up absolute garbage, taking in billions in fees and bonuses, and then being rescued by tossing it on the backs of the American Taxpayer?

Well in April, 2011 – Bill Gross of the Pimco Bond Fund – the single largest bond fund on earth, and the gentlemen who has been behind it’s remarkable performance for years said: “I am confident that this country will default on its debt". Now for those of you that think Bill is ‘blowing smoke’ – I’d say - two weeks ago Bill sold ALL his US treasury funds. For a gent that trades nothing but bonds (and tens of billions of them) that's quite a statement. Bill’s convinced we will default and sold his T-Bills and notes as proof. The U.S. is in the process of quietly devaluing it’s currency in order to pay back debt with devalued dollars. It makes covering the debt easier. But this time it's not going to stop with just rampant inflation. Over the years (when we had recessions) the FED would rush in - lower interest rates - people would finally take advantage of the cheap money - buy "stuff" - create demand - and businesses would finally respond by hiring workers and creating a new economic boom. Currently we are 3 years AFTER TRILLIONS in stimulus, bail outs, work programs, owning auto companies – and the best we can get is a 10% unemployment rate, with Housing sales still falling like a rock, and a 2% "growth" rate! Unfortunately the ‘run of the mill’ devaluing of the dollar will not be enough to offset the trillions in debt. I think Bill Gross knows that, but is such a public figure he cant' say it. At some point the U.S. dollar will be ‘replaced’ with something – and judging by the way China, India and Russia are buying up gold at the Central bank level – it’s going to have some form of loose gold backing again.

So what do I do with my 130% returns? Well (a) I don’t want bonds (Bill Gross told me that) and the Government and most municipalities are bankrupt anyway, (b) I don't want most Real Estate because it’s still falling, and (c ) I’m not marrying stocks because they're works of fiction based upon two sets of accounting books. So – when you ask me whether I still like precious metals the answer is still - Yes!

The Market:

Fast times at Ridgemont High – “People on ludes, should not drive” (Jeff Spicoli). The market drove past it’s 2-year high this week, but couldn't hold it and closed under that by a small margin. Everyone said it was due to the 216k jobs number that came in on Friday. Maybe, but 112,000 of those jobs were ‘fictitious’ (birth/death model jobs).

In any event, the question now is – will we truly take out the old high and romp higher? The general feeling is yes. The market has ignored Europe imploding, the PIIGS, a nuclear meltdown in Japan, a Tsunami, massive frauds, crashing housing, stubborn unemployment, and anemic growth. But it’s different this time, because at no time in the history has the Federal Reserve come out and stated that their policy includes causing the stock market to rise. The Ben Bernanke loves the "wealth effect" it gives people. But currently fund flows are anemic, as baby boomers are beginning to face retirement and are actually cashing out, not buying more. So the question becomes – how long can The FED keep this market afloat? I have two streams of thought. One: The FED is pushing the end of QE2. Now if fund managers buy into the idea that the FED is going to end the printing of money in June - they are going to be convinced that it's going to fall like a rock in June and should sell out in Late May. Well, the market never makes it that easy. So, one very real possibility is that we begin a protracted market slide in April, well ahead of the fund managers that will be trying to get "every last drop" out of the market. So, IF we can't get up and over 12,400 on a closing basis, we might start rolling downhill now. BUT if we do get up and past that level, we'll probably run up some into earnings reporting season – and then I'd expect the rug pull. The second scenario that I see playing out is that since everyone is convinced that the end of QE will spell the end of the market, that the market just keeps on grinding higher and higher by quiet QE3, 4, and 5. The people that sell out in May and early June will watch it keep going higher. They will rush back in in late July and August, and THEN in September (after everyone's back in and we've made some new short term highs) the FED yanks the rug and yanks it hard.

Be careful out there. Don't be afraid to take some profits home.

Tips:
Our long holds looking like: SLV, NG, AAU, DNN, AVL, and USSIF. The double down on DNN from the week before proved to be very beneficial indeed - and I believe that there’s more to run there.

In our short-term holds:
- We sold N and AUGT last week (both on the plus side)
- Still have SLW, FRG, QSURD, NGD, PAL, EXK, SVM, AGRO, SD, NBR, and SQM.
- AVL had quite a jump forward last week – all of those who had it with me – congrats!

The shale drillers last week - Approach Resources (AREX), GeoResources (GEOI), and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) – have started to move north – but we have not purchased as of yet because our recipe is: rising market, a catalyst, and a technical break-out.

If you’d like to view my actual stock trades – and see more of my thoughts – please feel free to sign up as a twitter follower – “taylorpamm” is my nickname on Twitter – fyi.

If you’d like to see me in action – teaching people about investing – please feel free to view the TED talk that I gave 4 months or so ago now:

Remember the Blog:
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson