RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, April 10, 2016

This Week in Barrons - 4-10-2016

This Week in Barrons – 4-10-2016:

Thoughts:



















If you listen closely … you can hear the 70’s a-comin’

Ms. Yellen:
This is one crazy, screwed up world that we live in.  Sometimes you just need to change – to do what’s right.  Money has become everything – which makes what Bruce Springsteen did last week that much more remarkable.  Artists are the embodiment of their identity.  When done correctly, artists channel their emotions, feelings, and insights directly to their listeners.  Artists change hearts and minds, make a difference, and speak to us – all by putting the truth first.  Bruce grew up in an era when musicians were giants.  Heck, musicians (almost single-handedly) helped to stop an unjust war.  Today's fans will have trouble digesting what Bruce did last week when he cancelled his tour date in North Carolina.  He said: “As you also know, North Carolina has just passed HB2, the ‘bathroom’ law.  HB2 dictates which bathrooms transgender people are permitted to use.  Just as important, the law also attacks the rights of LGBT citizens to sue when their human rights are violated in the workplace.  No other group of North Carolinians faces such a burden.  In my mind, it’s an attempt by people who cannot stand the progress our country has made in recognizing the human rights of all of our citizens – to overturn that progress.  I feel that it is time for the band and I to show solidarity for those freedom fighters.  As a result (and with deepest apologies to our dedicated fans in Greensboro), we have canceled our show scheduled for Sunday, April 10th.  Some things are more important than a rock show, and this fight against prejudice and bigotry — which is happening as I write — is one of them.  It is the strongest means I have for raising my voice in opposition to those who continue to push us backwards instead of forwards.”

Last week I also listened to Elon Musk as he introduced his new (more affordable) TESLA automobile.  Prior to announcing the vehicle itself (which produced the largest one-week launch of any product – ever), he stressed WHY to buy this car.  (A) The internal combustion engine is continuing to spike our levels of CO2 ever higher.  The last time our CO2 levels were this high was 11 million years ago – when man was just starting to walk.  I’d rather not return to those times. (B) These same CO2 levels have resulted in 20-degree increases in our temperature extremes – resulting in unthinkable, environmental discontinuities if continued.  And (C) a recent MIT study directly attributes 53,000 deaths per year to transportation emissions.  So if you’re in favor of living over the alternative – then the decision is easy.  Mr. Musk (in no small way) is raising his voice toward change – in order to do what’s right for our environment.

Finally in the ‘changing to do what’s right’ category, we learned this week that Brittany Stinson (a Delaware teen) was admitted to 5 Ivy-League colleges and Stanford – after penning an essay about Costco.  Her 655-word ode to Costco was in response to a College Common Application admissions essay question that asked applicants to share something that was so important that their lives would feel “incomplete without it.”  In the essay she talked of being: “A conquistador, but rather than searching the land for El Dorado, I scoured aisles for free samples.”  She posed such questions as: “Was cultured yogurt any more well-mannered than its uncultured counterpart?  Just as I sampled buffalo chicken dip or chocolate truffles, I probed the realms of history, dance and biology, all in pursuit of the ideal cart — one overflowing with theoretical situations and notions both silly and serious.”  The line that I especially liked was: “With cart in hand, I do what scares me.”

Ms. Yellen, so few of us anymore ignore what makes us money, and do what scares us.  Who will follow Bruce (the musician), Elon (the visionary), and Brittany (the conquistador)?  Who will follow – potentially jeopardizing their career, losing money – all for what's right?  It used to happen all the time.  It must happen again. http://goo.gl/KZgvEH


The Market:
Factually:
-       The Atlanta Fed now believes that GDP for 2016 will come in at 0.1% growth for the YEAR.  That’s down from a 1.6% estimate in January.
-       This week wholesale inventories fell 0.5%, and big truck orders plunged 37% to their lowest level since 2007.
-       This week the Financial Times reported that the U.S. corporate default rate is at a 7 year high.
-       On Wednesday, Gene Dodaro (an auditor for the Government Accountability Office) told lawmakers that in the next few years the federal government will OWE more money than our entire economy produces – and THAT is not sustainable.
-       Additionally Gene found that in 2015 there was $136.7 Billion in improper payments made, which calls in question ALL governmental financial reporting.

We continue to see this divergence between reality and what's happening in the capital markets that are just a couple percent from all time highs.  Our economy is troubled.  Our trade deficits and our debts are through the roof.  Our Government’s last hope is that keeping the stock market UP at all cost will keep J.Q. Public from revolting.  In general, markets climb for years, and then fall like a rock in a short period of time.  This market should have fallen two years ago, but the coordinated efforts by the FED, the ECB, and the Japanese Central bank – have kept all of the spinning plates in the air.  They can't do this forever.  Something’s going to break, but trying to call the exact date is a fool’s game.

Remember, a record $9 trillion USD has been pumped into the economy, and according to Goldman Sachs: “In each year since 2010, corporate demand via buybacks and M&A has represented the largest source of inflow to the U.S. equity market. We expect this pattern will repeat in 2016.”  http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2016/02/08/goldman-sachs-stock-buybacks-to-rescue-stock-market.html.  That is to say, instead of investing in the company, expanding the business, funding R&D and purchasing new capital equipment – companies are pandering to their executive’s salaries and their Board of Directors.  One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to recognize the effect of massive stock repurchases on the market.  Last week, during the blackout period (when companies were forbidden to re-purchase their own stock), the market had 3 consecutive down-days of record low liquidity.  Some of the better known share buyback programs are: Gilead (GILD) - $12B, 3M (MMM) - $10B, GE (GE) - $26B, AIG (AIG) - $25B, and Apple (AAPL) - $35B.

The recently architected run-up from the February lows is nothing short of spectacular.  But we're in a very interesting place.  Hedge funds lost big in the first quarter.  Bank of America says that investors are still fleeing the stock market in droves, and the only organizations propping up the market by buying ‘hand over fist’ are the ‘banksters’ themselves.

You’ve heard me compare this to a game of musical chairs.  The problem is (at these levels) any day the music stops could be the day that the markets start a ‘major’ downward slide.  It drives me crazy when major individual investors from Marc Faber to Jim Rogers scream to get out of stocks because something bad is coming.  Yet each time we get a couple down days, our FED simply calls on their other central banking buddies to purchase even more stock than normal.  It is terribly hard to bite your tongue and buy stocks when you know that they are rising for the WRONG reasons. 

I predicted this week to be a pause to down week – and we got it.  I am taking longer term ‘short-side’ positions, while in the short term trying to snag-n-grab profits from market bounces.  The ‘Vegas Play’ I introduced in January is chugging along nicely, as the miners are still in an uptrend.

Should you be buying gold?  Absolutely.  Is buying silver still a good idea?  Yes.  All of the investors disillusioned by gold’s fall from 1900 to 1200, will be amazed at where gold ends up in the future.  Gold and silver are assets where ‘timing the buy’ is everything.  For example, if you bought gold between the years 2001 and 2006 (between $300 and $500) – you’re sitting pretty with gold currently at $1,240 / ounce.  Timing is indeed everything, and I believe the time is right again.

However, be careful this week.  I expect wicked pops-n-drops as earnings hits and misses start filing through.  Try not to hold stocks over their reporting dates as the risk to reward is skewed to the downside. 

TIPS:

S&P Index    - On a pullback to the 2,000 level, watch to see how high it bounces.  If it bounces over 2100, then the FED is in control and they are signaling a yearend rally.  If the market does NOT bounce very high, then the market forces are in control and we are in store for much lower readings.
Russell Indx - The 1140 level will continue to act as resistance.
Nasdaq Indx - Unless we see a dramatic shift toward an up-trend, the broadening action displayed here is most often resolved to the downside.
Gold (GLD)    - If we continue to hold 1,200 as support, we could rally fairly dramatically into the end of the year.

In terms of the upcoming earnings season (that starts on Tuesday) – if you’re an aggressive trader, think about buying out of the money, Delta 20 - Calls on some of the FANG stocks as they run into earnings.  (Please sell BEFORE the actual earnings announcement as current risk/reward favors the downside.):
-       GOOGL – Apr4 - $800 calls for $6.50,
-       AMZN – Apr4 - $615 calls for $6,
-       NFLX – Apr4 - $115 calls for $2.30, and
-       FB – Apr5 - $118 calls for $2. 

I am:
-       Long various mining stocks: AG, AUY, DRD, EGO, FSM, GFI, IAG, KGC, and FFMGF,
-       Long an oil supplier: REN @ $0.56,
-       Sold CMG – Apr – Call Credit Spread – 470 / 472.5,
-       Long GLD – Apr – Call Debit Spread – 118 / 123,
-       Long IBM – Apr – Looking for a Pin @ $150,
-       Sold NDX – May – Iron Condor – 4125 / 4150 to 4750 / 4775,
-       Long NKE – Apr – Call – 67.5,
-       Sold RGR – May – Put Credit Spread – 55 / 60,
-       Long RUT – May – Butterfly – 1000 / 1080 / 1130,
-       Long POT – Stock & Apr – Call 20,
-       Sold TEX – Apr – Put Credit Spread – 19 / 20,
-       Long TLT – May – Call Debit Spread – 128 / 133,
-       Sold TSLA – Apr – Iron Condor – 227.5 / 232.5 to 275 / 280.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, April 3, 2016

This Week in Barrons - 4-3-2016

This Week in Barrons – 4-3-2016:

Thoughts:



Ms. Yellen – What if we’ve been duped?

I wonder if we've been duped?  I just returned from the Mid-America Truck Show (MATS) where the #1 topic was Donald Trump for President, and the most popular item was a “Make America Great Again” hat.  We’ve all experienced the circus surrounding Mr. Trump, and how everyone is ganging up to stop him.  When the leaders of the Republican Party came on CNBC to tell the voters that they have NO SAY in the nomination process – everyone was outraged and Trump’s poling numbers increased.  Coincidence?

Years ago, the U.S. 2016 Presidential election was predicted to be Jeb Bush vs. Hillary Clinton.  But no matter how hard Jeb tried, he couldn't raise the eyebrow of a working hooker.  While everyone was fine handing the election over to Hillary, the Republicans had to find another person to work with.  Rubio instantly came to mind, but there was still this ‘problem child’ – Donald Trump to deal with.  Trump just kept on winning elections and debates.

The failure of Jeb Bush pushed the Republican Party into panic mode.  But then they had their ‘Can’t Beat’em – Join’em’ moment.  They decided to feign their repugnance of a Trump Presidency, and keep the Dump Trump meme alive until it no longer drives people straight to Trump.  This allowed the established Republican Party to appear Anti-Trump, all the while moving The Donald up in the poles.

It will be easy to see if I'm reading this correctly.  If the Republicans pull a fast one at their Convention and appoint someone else, then it’s clear the establishment isn’t hiding their ambitions – and has disassociated themselves with the people.  I don't think they'll do that, as it would cause massive disruption to the Republican Party. 

Even this past week a reporter (Michelle Fields) filed a battery charge against Trump’s campaign manager – Mr. Lewandowski.  Ms. Fields said that Lewandowski grabbed her arm and almost threw her to the ground, but she regained her balance.  She said that it was the second most horrible thing in her life – after the passing of her father.  The video tape is all over YouTube.  Piers Morgan and J.Q. Public are laughing at this woman and saying: “Trump is being set-up – I’m going to support him.”

I’ve got to admit, 50,000 people visiting Louisville, KY this weekend – all talking and buying Donald Trump paraphernalia – convinced me that it’s working.  Be careful out there, the Donald may just pull this one off.


The Market:

Factually:
-       The Atlanta FED cut it’s annual GDP estimate from 1.9% to 0.6%.
-       The credit ratings on the majority of corporations are LOWER today, than in 2009.
-       Corporate defaults for all of 2008 were 42, and in 2016 are already 31.
-       There have been 8 bank failures thus far in 2016.
-       The foreign governments that own the most U.S. debt are China ($1.25T), Japan ($1.1T), and the Caribbean Banking Centers ($0.3T).
-       The rate of Global Trade is now forecast to be 2%.  Global GDP is forecast between 3.1% and 3.5%.  Most economists believe that unless Global Trade exceeds 6% - a recession is on our immediate horizon.  (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/01/

As MJP suggested, our Central Bankers have a real dilemma on their hands.  Since 2009 (the last time there was any governmental sense of fiscal responsibility), Central Banks have taken the brunt of supporting the global economy via: low interest rates, quantitative easing, forward guidance and now negative rates.  But it seems that the economic relationships that preceded the 2008 banking crisis may not hold today.  For example: the Phillips Curve.  It has always shown a relationship between unemployment and inflation.  Presumably, as unemployment falls, inflation would start to rise because businesses would compete for labor and correspondingly wages would increase.  This relationship has been the basis for many a Central Bank policy.  In fact in 2012, Ben Bernanke envisioned an unemployment rate of 6.5% being a trigger for monetary tightening; when, in fact, the first upward move in rates did not occur until December 2015 when the unemployment rate was already at 5%.

Could it be that the best measure for monetary tightening may not be the unemployment rate (which measures those on unemployment benefits), but rather the labor force participation rate (which calculates the proportion of those of working age who are employed)?  In the US, the labor force participation rate has fallen from a peak of 67% reached in 2000 – to 62.9% today.  Everyone expected the labor force participation rate (the percentage of people working) to increase as the unemployment rate fell, but (unfortunately) the two have fallen in tandem.  Are we making it too comfortable to remain unemployed?  Would some of the unemployed rejoin the labor force if wages were higher?

If we can’t trigger monetary tightening off of the unemployment rate, can we trigger it off of productivity?  After all, we can measure the average worker’s output, the average hourly workweek, and get a good estimate of productivity.  Unfortunately, we continue to see weak productivity growth, which has most recently caused a downward revision in the GDP forecast to 0.6% in 2016.  The weak productivity growth could be caused by no real improvement in the speed of road transport (congestion) or air transport (security checks) in the last 40 years.  It could reflect household appliance technology (refrigerators, stoves, dishwashers) remaining stagnant over the past 50 years.  It could also reflect technological industrial improvements reaching a time when: 
-       Wage growth has been so low that it’s currently cheaper to employ workers than to invest in new technology.
-       Service-focused productivity is just harder to improve.  (For example: a 10-minute haircut is not appreciably better than a 60-minute haircut).
-       The Internet’s technological distractions (e-mails, tweets, and cat-videos) are reaching a point of reducing office-worker productivity.
-       OR are we just bad at measuring service-sector productivity, and later revisions may show that GDP is higher (and inflation lower) than we thought?

In the meantime, I don’t think our Central Banks know the answer as to when to tighten monetary policy.  In fact, it seems that the FED’s ONLY job right now is to keep the stock market higher.  Do you think it’s coincidence that on February 12th (when the market was at its lows) – Jamie Dimon (head of JP Morgan) declared that he was buying millions of his own stock.  AND that Ms. Janet Yellen (on the same day) called the ECB’s President Mario Draghi and the Bank of England’s President Carney asking for a favor.  Do you think it’s coincidence that the market magically stopped going down on EXACTLY THAT day, and has made one of the most incredible rebounds since 1933?

So our FED had their buddies rescue what was turning into a market ‘crash’, and they engineered one of the biggest monthly rebounds ever seen.  However, this doesn’t change the fact that our market remains at nosebleed, over-bought, over-priced, and very expensive levels.

This week will start another earnings season.  And chances are good that even with all the primping and fluffing of the various individual earnings releases, these earnings comparisons are going to be ugly.  The dilemma is that Wall Street tells us that ‘earnings move stocks’, and if earnings stink – then the market should fall like a rock.  But the market currently moves on Central Bank purchases and stock buy-backs.  However, corporations can’t buy back their own stock because they are in the ‘black-out (non-buy-back)’ period surrounding corporate earnings.

In terms of a prediction, last week I thought they were going to keep us green for the week, and they did.  Now I tend to think we're going to see some sideways chop with a downward slant.  I believe that during the next month we will be shown the final resolution to which direction this market wants to move.  Markets are either: (1) Quiet and Trending – often grinding higher to the upside, (2) Sideways and Volatile – this current phase always front-runs bear markets, or (3) Volatile and Trending – which characterizes a downward market.

A market’s MONTHLY timeframe dominate trends; however, it’s DAILY timeframe initiates reversals.  We are currently in a monthly market downtrend that was confirmed on February 12th, 2016 – coincidentally – the same day that a massive daily reversal (uptrend) was initiated.  I believe that over the next 2 to 3 weeks:
-       We will experience a significant market pullback – whether we need to touch an S&P reading of 2100 before it’s triggered is anyone’s guess.
-       Watch the rally following the next market pullback.  If it exceeds an S&P reading of 2116 – then Ms. Yellen has decided to throw all caution to the wind and we will take off to the upside and make new all time highs.
-       If (however) after the next pullback, we do NOT exceed an S&P reading of 2116 – triggering a lower low and leading this market downward quickly.

I think we are within 4 weeks of this signal.  It will dictate whether we go blasting into the stratosphere and become the next Venezuela (which is my guess due to the Presidential election), or whether gravity takes hold and we go down in a hurry.


TIPS:

Think about buying out of the money, Delta 20 - Calls on some of the big boys running into earnings (and selling before their actual earnings announcement):
-       GOOGL – Apr4 - $810 calls for $8,
-       AMZN – Apr4 - $630 calls for $8,
-       NFLX – Apr4 - $120 calls for $2.25, and
-       FB – Apr5 - $125 calls for $1.20. 

I am:
-       Long various mining stocks: AG, AUY, EGO, GFI, IAG, and FFMGF,
-       Long an oil supplier: REN @ $0.56,
-       Long GLD – Apr – Call Debit Spread – 118 / 123,
-       Long NKE – Apr – Call – 67.5,
-       Long POT – Stock & Apr – Call 20,
-       Long SBUX – Apr – Call – 55,
-       Sold TEX – Apr – Put Credit Spread – 19 / 20

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>