RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, January 10, 2016

This Week in Barrons - 1-10-2016

This Week in Barrons – 1-10-2016:


Thoughts:




















“Let Me Entertain You” = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSJfkLXaayg 


Dear. Ms. Yellen:

I’m reminded of what Jimmy Cayne (previous CEO of Bear Sterns) once said about Wayne Angell (his Chief Economist): “Economists are right only 35 to 40% of the time.  I think that he is mostly entertainment, but he probably doesn't think so.  Wayne travels a lot, visits people, after all – he is an entertainer."

Mr. Cayne didn’t even pay lip service to the idea that Bear Sterns' clients were entitled to the firms best efforts based upon their superior research.  For Mr. Cayne, the goal was simply to be entertaining enough to make sales.  So as we dive into Wall Street's forecasts and predictions, remember that many on Wall Street are only there to entertain you, and get you to part company with your money.

To start the week, Mr. Richard Fisher (former head of the Dallas FED & former FED Co-Chair) came on CNBC this week and said: "We (the FED) front-loaded an enormous market rally from 2009 onward, in order to create the wealth effect.  For too many years everyone wanted the FED to lift all boats.  Now, that's over and people are going to have to go back to fundamental analysis.  The kind of work that used to be done – looking at individual companies to see if a company (on it's own) can grow its bottom line and increase shareholder value.”

Ms. Yellen, what I’m hearing from Mr. Fisher is that the FED can only fuel spending at a pace faster than private sector growth for so long.  Eventually either you top out, or private sector growth catches up and continues to fund the spending spree.  Of course the third option is the FED injects yet another round of uber-stimulus (QE, ZIRP, TALF, Operation Twist, etc.).  After all, the rest of the world is accelerating their ‘stimulus to prosperity’ policy – why not the U.S?  Given you’re a Keynesian and this administration strongly dislikes the pain of financial responsibility – I’m assuming that your next move is ‘Stimulus 5’ – yes?

But recently I noticed that a law was passed outlawing the FED from saving a failing bank.  Excuse me, but there are $700 Trillion in derivatives floating around out there.  That means that the next banking collapse is Uncle Sam's problem.  With Uncle Sam being broke, that leaves the bank depositors on the hook for the collapse.  Oops, (I forgot) due to another law, the minute I deposit money into a bank – it ceases to be MY money.  It’s all beginning to make sense to me now.  Under the new law, when a bank fails – the depositors will lose all of their money and will become completely dependent upon Uncle Sam for handouts.  Got it!

Lastly Ms. Yellen, I’m beginning to hear talk of a potential U.S. recession in 2016.  A key recessionary indicator is U.S. trucking tonnage, and that has been down 3 out of the last 4 months – and down 6 out of the last 11 months.  The last time that we saw this significant of a fall off was during the 2008-2009 recession.  Combine this with ‘mixed’ holiday sales, stagnant wage growth, and a low employment participation rate – it doesn’t bode well for private sector growth.  You do know that 2016 is a Presidential election year, and a recession would all but guarantee a change in governmental leadership – yes?  And often what comes with a change in governmental leadership is a change in FED leadership – yes?  I’m thinking that you are hoping for stagnant economic growth, and betting that market volatility is more than the long-term investor can stomach.  I have to hand it to you; I haven’t seen this much ‘market entertainment’ in years.  If that was your goal for starting 2016 – I can’t wait to see how November plays out.


The Market

This week we saw the December Jobs Report offer some good news in a sea of weak economic data.  It seems that in December, we created 290,000+ jobs, when only 200,000 were expected.  Now December also gave us weak holiday sales in many sectors, sharp manufacturing declines, reduced shipping tonnage, fewer exports (widening the trade deficit), contracting corporate profit growth, and 4th quarter earnings that could be significantly weaker than anticipated.

What I find silly is that the December Jobs Report is already fueling ‘FED rate hike’ talks.  Talks like this will only drive more volatility into the market.  And as the report continues to sink in, and talks of the next FED rate hike grow louder – the market will accept a rate hike as being bad news.  The market really wants ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) so that corporations can continue to leverage and push up asset prices.  Higher interest rates translate to:
-       Higher mortgage rates (stalling the housing market),
-       Higher borrowing costs (cutting spending),
-       Higher carrying costs (reducing leverage in the market), and
-       Declining bonds so yields can rise (increasing savings).
All of the above make it more difficult for the market to rally.

This week, China proved that they do not understand the technology, timing, and/or algorithms surrounding the use of market circuit breakers.  2 days this past week, Chinese trading was suspended due to circuit breakers tripping within an hour of their market’s open.  Presumably, they have suspended circuit breakers completely (which is not the right answer either), but we will see how their markets react next week.

Are we ever going to go back to the days when the ‘average, hard-working person’ can live their life in peace, be kind to their friends and neighbors, raise their 2 kids and a dog, buy the picket fence – and just enjoy life?  How is J.Q. Public ever going to believe that everyone is NOT out to get him?  After seeing the movie “The Big Short” (which I highly recommend), he now realizes that not only is the market ‘rigged’, but the Big Banks and the FED both ‘swindled’ him.  This week the Nevsky Capital hedge fund closed shop – not because they bet the farm on something that didn't work, but rather in their words: “Data releases have become much less transparent and truthful at both a macro and a micro level.  At a macro level the key issue is the ever-increasing importance of China and India. China is the world's second largest economy, but already much larger than the US in a broad swathe of sectors.  India will be the world's third largest economy within a decade.  Unfortunately … the most important data they produce is simply not credible.  This obfuscation and distortion of data, whether deliberate or inadvertent, makes it increasingly difficult to forecast macro and hence micro as well, for an ever growing share of our investment universe.

The unintended consequences of new regulations have given rise to falling equity market volumes, and a dramatic rise in individual stock volatility.  To mix metaphors: butterflies flapping their wings now regularly create hurricanes that stop out fundamentally driven investors who cannot remain solvent longer than the market can remain irrational.  Less disclosure means more risk, and instant downside risk on both longs and shorts has become immeasurably larger.

In summary, all of the above factors now mean that it is more difficult than ever before for us to accurately forecast macroeconomic and corporate variables.  This has made what we enjoy most - the thrill of analyzing economic data releases and company accounts - no longer enjoyable.  We are confident our process will eventually work again - for the laws of economics will never be repealed - but for now they are suspended and may be for some time; an indefinite period involving indeterminate levels of risk during which we think it would be wrong for us to be the stewards of your money.”

Bottom line – Nevsky Capital is telling the world that the market is rigged, manipulated and controlled.

By taking a ‘hawkish’ stance on raising interest rates, the Fed is playing a dangerous game.  In 2015, rate hike expectations drove the dollar higher, and created disinflation.  China (after last weeks currency devaluations and a stock market plunge) has become public enemy number one.  In reaction, our market has peeled off an incredible 158 S&P points and 1,404 DOW points in just 7 sessions.  Right now we're in ‘Correction Mode’, but eventually we are going to be in full on ‘Crash Mode’.

‘Crash Mode’ will happen when everyone figures out that the FED is no longer going to rush in and save the market.  I do not think that the FED will take back its rate hike, but there will some form of snap back rally.  Look at a chart of August 2015.  Following China’s first 4% currency devaluation, we plunged 1,000 points in 5 days, but then had a 2-day, 990-point bounce.  I’m looking for something similar.  My only question is sustainability.

I think that it is written in stone that we're going to test 1867 on the S&P.  We might bounce and wiggle first, but eventually that level gets tested.  If it holds, we'll trade sideways and slightly higher for a while.  If it doesn't, then a full on ‘Crash Mode’ is upon us, and we may not stop until a full 25% correction has been put in place.

The market tried to bounce on Tuesday, but managed only a slightly green day.  It tried again on Friday morning, quickly gaining 150 points before rolling over once again.  One of these bounces will stick.  If nothing goofy happens over the weekend, Monday may be the day – or it may show up as a ‘V’ style rescue.  The bottom line is that unless you are a skilled day-trader, you do NOT want to be holding anything long or short in this mess.  If you're a position trader, I think it would be a big mistake to ‘buy this dip’ in hopes of some ‘run to glory’.

The world is in turmoil.  Gold is a great place to be.  But if you can't stomach the gyrations of gold, then go to cash.  Earnings season starts this week, and that will add even more volatility to the mix.  If you're going to trade, do it in big liquid instruments like the SPY.  Right now, ‘Return OF’ your money is much more important than a ‘Return ON’ your money.


Tips:

Support & Resistance
INDU 16,346 - I’m expecting consolidation around the 16,400 level, and if we continue through that – then I think the low is 16,000.
NDX 4270      I’m looking for some sloppy consolidation around 4200 – 4400. Apple has been an unexpected drag, but speculative buyers came in on Friday.  This could give the index support that could rollover into the Dow Jones.
SPX 1922      The range here is between 1920 and 1980.  This week could bring ‘knee-jerk’ sell-offs and rallies.  The next level of support is 1901.  I’m hearing people talk about 1750 and 1800, but I don’t think we get there.  I think we will see consolidation in this area – unless some other shoe drops.
RUT 1046      My one concern about the general market order flow is seeing the Russell index smash through its 1080 level.  We really need to see this index get back above 1080 and close there with some strength.  If we can get up into the 1080 area with some volume – it could confirm some support or at least bring consolidation in here.

I’m looking at:
-       TSLA (211) – now that it has broken through 213, I’m looking for more downside,
-       DECK (44) – below 45, it appears to be heading lower,
-       CRM (73) – is sitting on it’s 200-day moving average – if it holds – selling a Put Credit Spread would be the way to go,
-       DIS (99) – around $98 Disney gets interesting again to the upside,
-       AAPL (97) – look for the bounce to continue – before shorting this again,
-       FB (97) – look for a bounce into 99, before shorting it again,
-       AMZN (608) – looking for more downside into 601, and
-       **UA (75) - looking at selling the $87 Jan5 Calls / and buying the $90 Feb Calls for a credit of 2 cents – so virtually no downside risk in this trade!

I am:
-       Long various mining stocks: AG, AUY, EGO, GFI, IAG, and FFMGF,
-       Long an oil supplier: REN @ $0.56,
-       Sold RH – Jan – Call Credit Spread – 80 / 85, and
-       Sold SPX – Mar – Call Credit Spread – 2150 / 2155.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, January 3, 2016

This Week in Barrons - 1-3-2016

This Week in Barrons – 1-3-2016:


Thoughts:
















“Yippee Ki Yay – Mother-F!#$#@” – Bruce Willis in the movie Die Hard

Happy New Year:
I can almost guarantee that if you liked 2015 – you’re going to love 2016.  Here are some sobering thoughts by a very smart man – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts.  Dr. Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy under President Ronald Reagan, and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal.  He believes that as long as the European governments (especially Germany and the UK) continue to act as nothing more than an extension of Washington, the prospect of World War III / Armageddon will continue to rise.  But let’s take a step back.  

In 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union gave birth to Neo-conservatism.  Neo-conservatism generally states that the U.S. is the ONLY superpower that can act without restraint anywhere in the world.  In 1992, Undersecretary Paul Wolfowitz wrote the Wolfowitz Doctrine.  It states that our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of any new rival that poses a threat to the U.S.  In 1998 (three years prior to 9/11), the Neo-conservatives sent a letter to President Clinton calling for the removal of Saddam Hussein from power, and for removing seven other governments from power in the next five years. http://www.globalresearch.ca/we-re-going-to-take-out-7-countries-in-5-years-iraq-syria-lebanon-libya-somalia-sudan-iran/5166 Neo-conservatives view the events of September 11, 2001, as 'the New Pearl Harbor’ – which was necessary in order to begin the conquest of the Middle East.  Since 9/11, Washington has destroyed (in whole or part) eight countries – and now confronts Russia both in Syria and Ukraine.

Russia's president Vladimir Putin has been demonized by Neo-conservatives.  Even Hillary Clinton has declared him to be ‘the New Hitler.'  Putin's responsible behavior, however, has been misinterpreted by Neo-conservatives as a sign of weakness and fear.  Putin has made it clear that Russia will not give in.  By example, on September 28, 2015 (at the 70th anniversary of the United Nations) Putin said that Russia would no longer tolerate the state of affairs in the world.  Two days later Putin took command of the war against ISIS in Syria.

Dr. Roberts believes that nuclear war is coming, and can only be avoided in two instances:
-       One is for Russia and China to surrender and accept Washington's leadership.
-       The other way is for an independent leader in Germany, the UK, or France to rise to office and withdraw their country from NATO.  

That would begin a stampede to leave NATO.  NATO is Washington's primary tool for creating a conflict with Russia, and is (therefore) the most dangerous force on earth.  If NATO continues to exist, NATO together with the Neo-conservative ideology of American leadership will make nuclear war inevitable.

Well, Yippee Ki Yay, and on with my New Year’s predictions.


The Market:

2015 was a tough year.  267 Hedge funds went under.  Some of the biggest investors on the planet lost money.  The damage was everywhere:
-       People that purchased the initial dip in oil thinking that it was going to rebound – got creamed.
-       People that bought the small caps in May and June looking for new highs – got slammed.
-       People thinking that the financials would power to new highs – were dead wrong.
-       Except for Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Netflix – the number of winners was few and far between.

In 2016, I see a whole lot more trouble.  If the best the market could do in 2015 was to lose 1% (despite the umpteen trillions of dollars being pumped into it globally by the Central banks); it tells me that the ‘going’ is about to get even tougher.

2016 Predictions:
-       Interest Rates:         My prediction comes down to whether or not the FED will continue to drive the market and the headlines, or whether they will change policy.  The FED will always continue to be the ‘buyer of last resort’ – supporting bonds and inflating stock prices.  In 2016, I don’t see any significant change in interest rates or FED policy.
-       Commodities:          Whether it was oil, corn, gold or soybeans, 2015 put tremendous pressure on commodities.  The primary driver for this pressure has been the strong dollar.  I believe that we could see the dollar spike higher at the beginning of the year.  We could see the DXY (the dollar index) break above 100 again; however, unless the FED takes a significant ‘hawkish’ position, I think we could see the dollar begin to collapse.  And if the DXY cannot hold support at 94, we could see the dollar fall into the 80's before support is found.  If the dollar drops into the 80’s, commodities will see a significant rally in 2016.
-       Inflation:         If there is a drop in the dollar, commodities will rally, and inflation will kick in.  We have been in a disinflationary environment for a while.  But why?  After all, the FED’s easy money policy is trying to spur inflation by pushing bond prices higher, lowering rates, and increasing the money supply.  But the reality is that outside forces are the primary cause for the disinflation that we are experiencing.
o   Today the majority of our goods are imported.  
o   We have a trade deficit as we continue to consume far more than we export.  
o   Old economic theories are no longer working.  The proof is that after printing trillions of dollars, buying trillions of bonds, and keeping rates at zero – we are not seeing any inflation, actually the opposite.
o   Currently all of our trading partners are devaluing their currencies by cutting rates and increasing their own versions of a QE type of stimulus.  But in 2015, we started to strengthen our own currency with a 25bps rate hike.  I’m counting on this ‘perception’ and the reality of a cheaper dollar to drive inflation higher in 2016.
-       -  Stocks:           The ‘Unicorn’ (over-valued) companies take me back to the dot.com era.  I think we will see more consolidation, and fewer IPOs in 2016.  With Apple closing DOWN on the year, I think that the tech sector will continue to be mixed, and strength will come from disruptors as well as from Asia.  Environmental disruptors will also gain traction.  The world has embraced the global warming story, and that is driving nations to change environmental policies and consumers are becoming more conscious with their purchasing.  We will see more battery, green, and other environmentally conscious companies rise up.  These environmental companies could be take-over targets by oil companies (and companies like GE) that are trying to expand into this growing space.  The general market will have a difficult year in 2016.  I believe that broad based index ETFs or index tracking mutual funds will most likely under perform a more sector driven economy and market.
-      -   The FED:       The dollar rally is driving deflation, and THAT is the greatest fear of the FED.  Hopefully the rate hike has quieted the media, and they can now turn back to their easy money policies and curb the dollar rally.
-       -  CONCLUSION:        I think that the big story will be the U.S. dollar.  It will not get much attention, but will drive the markets.  If the dollar index holds in the 95 – 100 range through 2016 it will be a non-story.  However, I don’t think it will stay there and if we crack below 94 we could see a spike in inflation, which will drive commodities higher.  The FED’s wish of inflation could come fast and true which would be un-welcomed.  The velocity of money continues to decline as money continues to pile up higher behind the dam.  When inflation comes, it will be based upon what happens with the dollar index and the velocity of money – those two will be the prime indicators.  The question is NOT whether it comes, but how fast it comes when it does.




























Tips:

Last week the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) came in well below 50 at 42.9.  Inside the report, new orders and backlogs both crashed.  It was the worst Chicago PMI report since 2009.  The latest Dallas FED Report confirmed those low industrial numbers by reporting a -20 reading.

To quote Michael Burry (the hedge-fund manager known for recognizing the subprime crisis and who is portrayed in the new movie “The Big Short): “It seems the world is headed toward negative, real interest rates on a global scale.  This is toxic.  Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk-pricing mechanism is broken. That is not healthy for an economy.”

INDU 17,425:            For next week I’m looking to potentially visit the 17,200 area.
NDX 4,593:    The tech heavy index has held up well, despite some volatility.  The beginning of the year could bring a test of 4,500.
SPX 2,044:    I don’t see a strong rally in the near term, and we could visit 2,000 in the very short term.
RUT 1,136:    The Russell finished the year weak.  1,120 is the support that we need to watch if the New Year decline continues.

I am:
-       Long various mining stocks: AG, AUY, EGO, GFI, IAG, and FFMGF,
-       Long an oil supplier: REN @ $0.56,
-       Sold RH – Jan – Put Credit Spread – 70 / 65, and
-       Sold SPX – Mar – Call Credit Spread – 2150 / 2155.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>