RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, August 9, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 8-9-2015


This Week in Barrons – 8-9-2015:












“I think I can … I think I can … I think I can…”


Thoughts:

Mark Twain popularized the phrase: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  This past week, I had the distinct pleasure of accompanying my son to the global, cyber-security conference.  I thought it appropriate because a couple things that truly ‘keep me up at night’ are our complete reliance on the Internet, and our dependence upon the ‘power grid’ for survival.  Both of these are fairly new developments, and are situations where massive outages will cause unthinkable problems.  This conference also served as a reality-check in terms of how public our lives really are, but also as a tremendous wake-up call in terms of how ill-prepared we are for any ‘national’ event.

And then my mind went back to the 1970’s when Global COOLING was the scare.  I am NOT saying that cyber attacks, global cooling or warming (for that matter) aren’t something we should be concerned about.  But scientists are not always correct, theories tend to change as new data is collected, and any long-term predictions are difficult to make.  In fact, I would argue that Global Warming fanatics probably do the legitimate science more harm than good.  Remember, politicians are only thinking about the next election.  Therefore, if nothing happens in the next 4 years, it will be harder for a politician to get more votes and a scientist to get more funding by playing the ‘global warming’ fear card next time around.

I remember some of the headlines from the 1970’s:
- NY TIMES: International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere (January 5, 1978)
- Washington Post: Colder Winters Hold Dawn of New Ice Age – Scientists See Ice Age In the Future (January 11, 1970)
- Time: Science: Another Ice Age? (November 13, 1972)
- LA Times: Is Mankind Manufacturing a New Ice Age for Itself? (January 15, 1970)
- Chicago Tribune:
The Ice Age cometh: The System that Controls our Climate (April 13, 1975)

For example: I’ve heard the President and others repeat that 97% of scientists agree that Global Warming is a problem.  But where did this 97% come from, and is it correct?  The quote comes from the NASA website on Climate Change / Global Warming: http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/.  They examined 11,944 climate abstracts from 1991 to 2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’ and found the following:
-       7,930 scientific papers (66.4%) had NO position, and
-       3,896 papers (32.6%) endorsed global warming and in those papers 97.1% said that humans (to varying degrees) impacted it.

Ah-Hah, this is where the 97% figure comes from.  BUT if we were to properly quote the study: only 29.8% (97.1% of the 32.6%) of scientists believe that Climate Change / Global Warming is a problem impacted by humans.  The issue is that the 97% figure was taken ‘out of context’ and repeated so often that we all believe it, and are now basing our energy policies upon this belief.

How many times does this happen in our lives?  Statistics are a funny thing, and often allow us to phrase a question or extrapolate an answer simply to justify our own belief.  For example, I could say:
-       Less than 1% reject global warming, or
-       97% believe there is climate change, or
-       Only 32.6% believe that humans have impacted Global Warming, or
-       66.4% (over half of the scientists) have no position on Global Warming.

All of the above statements are correct, and either side of the debate could quote from this study to support their view.  The trick is to ASK the right question, rather than trying to ‘tailor the data’ to conform to your hypothesis.  If the question is: “How many believe that Global Warming is impacted by humans?”  The answer is clearly: 29.79%.

The point that I am making is that:
-       From cyber security to climate change, we need to be objective and not automatically accept or deny anything.
-       Do not use fear or misrepresentations of the truth to convince people.
-       Do not use unsubstantiated facts when making broad-sweeping mandates.
-       When in doubt, remind yourself of Global Cooling in the 1970’s, and how the fear, rhetoric, and media hype reached a crescendo – and then died off.  It only takes (a) a few people with irrefutable credentials, (b) the media to sell the fear, and (c) our leaders to repeat it over and over again until we all believe it.
-       And remember peddling fear does more harm than good.  Imagine when legitimate scientists try to go back to the government for grants, after the hype has died down and ‘nothing’ has happened.

This conference reminded me that we all need to be more responsible and accountable for our own actions.  I need to read and study the reports myself, in order to understand what is really going on – rather than just trusting a sound bite or a quote (often taken out of context).  Whether it is our President selling us on fears of weapons of mass destruction or selling us on fears that the oceans will rise – we need to take a breath before our government makes radical decisions that will impact us all.  Why – because all of these issues have become topics of political debates for election purposes and political favors, often at the expense of science and the real issue itself.


The Market:

The market is continuing to experience head winds, and all of the (‘I think I can’) good thoughts may not be enough to keep it from going lower.

This week we learned that:
-       105,696 people were laid-off in the month of July.  This is the first time since 2011 that monthly layoffs exceeded 100,000.
-       The Non-Farm Payrolls Report came in a little light at 215,000 jobs created, while the unemployment rate held at 5.3%.
-       The Russell is 7.5% off its high, the DOW off by 5.6%, the NASDAQ off by 3.8%, and the S&P off by 2.7% from its high.

I normally don’t pay too much attention to the DOW because it’s made up of only 30 stocks.  But what’s worse is that the DOW is price weighted, not market cap weighted.  What this means is that Goldman Sachs (@ $203/share) has a weighting of 7.9%, while General Electric (@ $26/share) has a weighting of 1%. So even though GE (with it’s $262B market cap) is almost three times the size of Goldman Sachs, it’s weighting within the DOW is seven times lower.  So the DOW to me makes no sense, but having said that – the trends that come out of reviewing the indexes can be meaningful.
-       The DOW (for example) has closed down 7 days in a row.  It hasn’t closed down 8 days in a row since August of 2011.  In August 2011 Standard & Poor’s had just downgraded the United State’s credit rating, and at that point caused the biggest market drop since the 2008 crash.  When I look at the price action in individual names, it absolutely makes me bearish but if too many people are feeling bearish, it tips the boat too far in one direction and a rally inevitably follows.
-       The S&P is again pinning at 2,100, and this level just continues to act like a magnet.  Unless something changes, my strategy will continue to involve selling iron condors around 2,100 on the SPX, buying the dips down toward 2,080, and selling the rips up towards 2,120.
-       The NASDAQ has had a strong run in July.  After a solid run higher, combined with a weaker broader market, it seems that some volatility is to be expected.  I’m looking for 4,500 to act as support.
-       I use the Russell as a gauge of broad order flow across the market.  It closed above 1,220 on Friday, and could bounce from that on Monday.

When I review the trends, the DOW has ‘blown-thru’ it’s 200-day moving average and is visiting levels it hasn't seen since January.  The S&P is looking better, but here too the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are getting closer and closer together.  The old adage was that if the 50-day moved up and over the 200-day it was bullish, and as long as the 50-day remained on top – it was still bullish.  Of course it works in the opposite direction, when the 50-day plunges below the 200 it's called a ‘Death Cross’, and often marks a bearish market.  On the DOW, only 24 points separate the 50 and the 200-day moving averages.  On the S&P, there are just 23 points of separation.  We are closer to these two crossing to the ‘downside’ than at any time in the last several years.  Add-in this wicked chop, the failed ‘triple top’, and all the cycles that are coming together this fall, and this market could finally be ready for a big correction.

I won’t start going short until the S&P closes below 2040 for a few days.  Until that time, I just keep playing the hand that’s dealt.


TIPS:

After processing all of this bad news, the knee-jerk reaction could be to sell this market with both hands.  But when you look up you see that the SPX is less than 2% from all-time highs, all you can say is that this is one resilient market.  One potential spot I’m watching closely is the media space, and stocks like Disney (DIS), CBS Corp (CBS), and Time Warner (TWX).  All of these stocks have been obliterated this week after many of them missed earnings, and amid the fears of ‘cord cutting’.  If you’re not familiar with ‘cord cutting’ it’s the idea that fairly soon consumers will no longer have to pay for cable packages, and will be able to pay a-la-carte for just the programming they want.  Unfortunately, I think that the fears here are massively overdone.  People are only consuming more and more content – with or without ‘cord cutting’.  These stocks are getting hit now because there’s so much uncertainty about how this will all play out.  Uncertainty breeds confusion, and in the stock market confusion breeds contempt and lower prices.

I’m currently holding:
-       MDY – SOLD the Sept 245 / 250 to 285 / 290 Iron Condor,
-       NDX – SOLD the SEPT $4875 / 4900 Call Credit Spread for $2.95,
-       RUT – SOLD the August 1140 / 1150 to 1330 / 1340 Iron Condor,
-       SPXPM – SOLD – Iron Condor – SEPT @ 1885 / 1890 to 2200 / 2205,
-       SPX:
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1950 / 1955 to 2150 / 2155,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1995 / 2000 to 2170 / 2175,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2165 / 2170,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1955 / 1960 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1990 / 1995 to 2155 / 2160
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept2 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2180 / 2185,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1845 / 1850 to 2190 / 2195, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1870 / 1875 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1925 / 1930 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1905 / 1910 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1915 / 1920 to 2200 / 2205, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2185 / 2190,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1910 / 1915 to 2205 / 2210,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2200 / 2205,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1885 / 1890 to 2220 / 2225.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, August 2, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 8-2-2015

This Week in Barrons – 8-2-2015:
                                         
           
            















“How can I make money in the stock market?”


Thoughts:

From the e-Mail bag:

Most of the email that I receive asks me a variation of the following 2 questions: (a) “How do I make money in the stock market?” and (b) “What is the performance of your TIPS section?”  In order to answer (a) – allow me to defer to the Univ. of Chicago professor Harold Pollack, who when asked that question – wrote this answer on the front side of the 4x6 index card shown above:
-       #1.  “Max your 401(k) or equivalent employee contribution.”  That is to say, if anyone wants to give you ‘free money’ – take it – assuming you have first paid off any high-interest consumer debt.  If your company doesn’t offer a matching 401(k) – then a Roth IRA may be your best alternative.
-       #2.  “Buy inexpensive, well-diversified mutual funds such as Vanguard’s Target 20xx funds.”  I personally prefer index funds, but Vanguard’s target-dated funds contain just a few asset classes and are certainly better than loaded, actively managed funds.
-       #3.  “Never buy or sell an individual security.  The person on the other side of the table knows a lot more than you do.”  Now maybe the person on the other side of the table is smarter than you or maybe they aren’t, but it’s unlikely that you know anything that isn’t already factored into the current stock price.  Therefore, you often have no competitive advantage buying or selling a particular security.
-       #4, 5 & 6.  “Save 20% of your money.  Pay your credit-card balance in full every month.  Pay attention to fees and Avoid actively managed funds” – are all great rules to follow!
-       #7.  “Make your financial advisor commit to a fiduciary standard.”  Most financial advisors are NOT required to act in a fiduciary capacity with their clients.  They are not required to disclose conflicts of interest or even recommend investments that are in their clients' best interests — only those that are ‘suitable’. 
I would then have added the following on the back of this index card:
-       #8.  Vote for people who will let you keep more of your own money.
-       #9.  If you have to choose, make saving for your retirement a higher priority than saving for your kid’s college education.
-       #10.  Finally, investing is NOT about hitting home runs, but rather singles and doubles.  Singles and doubles will serve you well in the long run, and will help you to avoid making big mistakes.

In terms of (b) the performance of the TIPS portfolio, it varies but for the past 6 months it has been averaging between 16% and 21% per MONTH.  That is a non-compounded return, and the vast majority of that has been accomplished via selling Iron Condors (40 to 90 days out) on the SPX at a Delta 0.14 or less.

Many of you have written asking whether NOW is the time to buy gold, silver or even NUGT (the triple leveraged ETF focused on the miners).  Because of gold’s most recent collapse, most of the ‘gold bugs’ are trying to either rework their models or have abandoned gold altogether.  The gold ‘buy signal’ will be a combination of the following 2 items: (a) Gauge the sentiment, and when the last gold bull has ‘left the building’ – then it’s time to buy.  And (b) let’s see what side John Paulson and David Einhorn (two hedge fund managers known for their bets on gold) are on when they disclose their metal’s positions on August 14th.  As for NUGT (which has lost over 70% of its value over the past 3 months), I would wait until the price of gold has turned the corner.

Finally, during this past week I received emails asking for my opinion on ‘Selfie Sticks’.  Two 2 recent surveys (completed in April 2015) have concluded that: people who post selfies on social networks are more likely to exhibit ‘the dark triad’ of personality traits.  That ‘dark triad’ consists of:
-       Narcissism (extreme self-centeredness),
-       Machiavellianism (extreme manipulation of others), and
-       Psychopathy (acting impulsively with no regard for other people’s feelings).
These finding are supported by a recent study in the Journal of Social Networking that found that the more people changed their social networking profile picture, the more likely they were to exhibit narcissistic (extreme self-centeredness) traits.  The study also concluded that there was a definite positive correlation between narcissistic behavior and the time people spend on Facebook tagging and commenting on photos. 


The Market:

Factually:
-       July saw a small bounce in most stocks and bonds, but that masked some severe divergences such as: Commodities being down 12.6%, Gold being down 6.6%, and the Emerging Markets accelerating their decline to the tune of being lower by 6.2%.  This only serves to confirm the ‘global economic slowdown’ hypothesis.
-       Historically a precursor to a severe market decline has been: high valuations, weakening momentum, and overly bullish sentiment.  That is the environment in which we find ourselves in today.
-       2nd Quarter GDP came in at 2.3%, proving that we’re living through the WEAKEST economic recovery ever recorded – with a 10-year GDP growth averaging a mere 1.4%.
-       2nd Quarter Wage Growth came in at 0.2% - the weakest since 1982.
-       2nd Quarter Home Ownership was at its lowest level since 1964.
-       2nd Quarter U.S. corporate revenue growth was a NEGATIVE 3%.  This confirms that China’s and emerging market’s slowing growth rates are taking their toll on U.S. corporations.

In so far as the Indexes are concerned:
-       The DOW Industrials are seeing some consolidation around the 17,600 to 17,800 levels.  I am looking to these levels to show me either real selling or real buying going forward.
-       The NASDAQ (NDX) is in a range between 4,550 and 4,650.  Technology is really the ONLY growth sector; however, the markets must come to terms that sometimes price out paces real growth.  The index looks a little over-heated when measured against the other indices, and I suspect some volatility in the near-term.
-       The S&P Index (SPX) is in a range between 2,100 and 2,130.  We could see some moves up into the 2120 - 2130 area, but that will be fought with selling pressure.  There could be short-term support buyers at the 2100 level, but failing that would mean a drop to 2080 and then 2040.
-       The Russell Small-Cap Index (RUT) is in a range between 1,220 and 1,240.  It seems that the Russell is pricing in concerns of a rate hike coupled with strong dollar related deflation.  A move and close above 1240 on some volume would mean that concerns are starting to fade.  I keep watching the RUT for general market order flow, and lately it’s looking weaker than the DOW or S&P would have us believe.

The question is – what’s next?  Are we going to challenge the all-time highs again, or are we rolling back down some?  Since February, we have crossed the S&P 2100 line (up and down) over 45 times, and we just crossed it again (to the upside) last week.  But from that 2100 level, there are only 30 more points left before you run into the "all-time' highs – and that's been a brick wall.  My guess is that they try and get us higher early in the week, fail at the 2030 level, and then trade sideways and lower for a while.  

In fact, I could easily be convinced that the short-term ‘TOP’ in the market was set back in May.  Without some new form of QE or some other nation blowing up, we seem to have run out of gas.  Sure there will be fits and starts, but it looks like the May highs are going to hold.  I think we see sideways to down movement – especially heading into the fall.  I know that sounds ridiculous because every time we've had reason to fall in the past – the FED would come rushing in to save the day.  But without some new form of stimulus, I think we could be looking at something nasty shaping up.  My boundaries are still the same: 2130 on the upper end and 2040 on the lower end.  If I’m wrong and the market vaults for ‘new highs’ – breaking over 2130 for several days – then I’ll need to ‘flip’ and go considerably longer.  However, it’s my opinion that the most money will be made on the ‘short side’ of this market moving forward.


TIPS:

In the beginning of July, I suggested taking longer-term positions in 5 stocks.  One of those stocks was a Coca-Cola bottler (CCE).  At the time I recommended buying the January $45 calls for $2.60.  This week Coca-Cola started acquiring more of CCE and those calls (30 days later) are now almost 300% higher – worth $7.  My other tips at that time were:
-       Mondelez (MDLZ) BUY the Dec. $40 Calls @ or under $2.80 / now 200% higher at $5.60.
-       Time Warner (TWX) BUY the Jan. $90 calls @ or under $4.00 / now $3.50.
-       Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) BUY the Jan. $90 calls @ or under $1.40 / now $1.10.
-       And Analog Devices (ADI) BUY the Dec. $70 calls @ or under $3.00 / now $0.75
Therefore, TWX, TAP and ADI are still buyable, and at better prices.

The TIPS portfolio has (for the past 6 months) increased in value by an average of 18% per MONTH.  That is a non-compounded return, with the vast majority of those gains coming from SELLING Iron Condors (40 to 90 days out) on the SPX at a Delta 0.14 or less.

I’m currently holding:
-       IWM – SOLD the August 112 / 114 to 132 / 134 Iron Condor,
-       MDY – SOLD the Sept 245 / 250 to 285 / 290 Iron Condor,
-       NDX – SOLD the SEPT $4875 / 4900 Call Credit Spread for $2.95,
-       RUT – SOLD the August 1140 / 1150 to 1330 / 1340 Iron Condor,
-       SPXPM – SOLD – Iron Condor – SEPT @ 1885 / 1890 to 2200 / 2205,
-       SPX:
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug2 @ 2025 / 2030 to 2150 / 2155,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug @ 2025 / 2030 to 2160 / 2175, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1950 / 1955 to 2150 / 2155,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1995 / 2000 to 2170 / 2175,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2165 / 2170,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1955 / 1960 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1990 / 1995 to 2155 / 2160
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept2 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2180 / 2185,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1845 / 1850 to 2190 / 2195, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1870 / 1875 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1925 / 1930 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1905 / 1910 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1915 / 1920 to 2200 / 2205, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2185 / 2190,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1910 / 1915 to 2205 / 2210,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2200 / 2205,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1885 / 1890 to 2220 / 2225.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>