RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, October 12, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 10-12-2014

This Week in Barrons – 10-12-2014:













“What line were you in when they were giving out testicles?” The Judge (the movie)

Dear Ms. Yellen:

Do you remember in 1973 when FASB (the Financial Accounting and Standards Board) began regulating a company’s financial reporting according to GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)?  GAAP is an excellent, ‘real’ representation of a company’s health.  It seems, because GAAP is so clear and hard-hitting, that we have allowed our companies to fall back and report on a ‘Pro-forma’ basis.  ‘Pro-forma’ accounting allows a company to EXCLUDE any transactions (mostly expenses) that it believes can obscure the accuracy of its financial outlook.  These excluded transactions (called ‘ex-items’) are reported separately.  For example, between 2007 and 2010, companies reported $1.87T in real earnings, and correspondingly over $550B in Pro-forma ex-Items.  It was this $550B, which allowed over 78% of our corporations to ‘make’ (rather than ‘miss’) their earnings estimates.  I was thinking (as we enter yet another earnings season), what if we forced companies to return to GAAP accounting?  If you forced companies to ‘Man-Up’ to their real earnings, wouldn’t that be a good thing in terms of transparency and understanding?

Ms. Yellen, when QE was first introduced – did you realize that it would have such a ‘slowing’ effect on the ‘velocity’ of money.  I have to think that when Ben Bernanke can’t refinance his mortgage – banks aren’t lending enough.  And you can’t blame them because banks earn larger returns by investing all of your interest free money back into the stock market.  But, by investing in the stock market, it means that banks are NOT investing in mortgages, and that does fairly dramatically slow down the ‘re-circulation’ of money.  It also slows down inflation.  Honestly, inflation should be between 3% and 4% by now; however, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is only up 1.7% and your inflation measure (the PCE deflator) is only up 1.5%.  On one hand you have 5.9% unemployment, you’re stopping QE, and increasing rates – while on the other hand you have deflationary pressures and the dollar is rallying.  I think you’ll agree that the strong dollar (although good in the short-term for the voters - lowering gasoline prices) is bad for the markets, government debt and deficits.  Aren’t we all going to have to ‘Grow a Pair’ and just realize that our stock market should be around 10,000 and not 16,400 – and accept the crash that is coming?

Ms. Yellen – globally we going to have to grow a ‘Major League pair of Cajones’ in order to continue to ignore:
-       Germany’s industrial production crashing to lows not seen since 2009 – due mainly to U.S. sanctions on Russia.
-       Yields on French Bonds are seeing their lowest rates in 250 years.
-       Greece is defaulting – yet again.
-       China is creaking and groaning due to over-building – not to mention clashing with Hong Kong.
-       Russia is still invading the Ukraine,
-       ISIL is still attacking IRAQ and Syria,
-       The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its estimate for global growth for the 3rd time this YEAR.
-       And Ebola is beginning to have a real impact on travel and decision-making.

Lastly, Ms. Yellen your FOMC meeting (on October 29th) directly precedes the November 4th midterm election.  If you stick to your path of ending QE and continue talking about increased interest rates – you could really sound the ‘death knell’ for the Democrats in the midterm elections.  Wouldn’t it be easier and more ‘democratically’ accommodative to announce QE4 – on October 29th – just 6 days before the elections?  And let us not forget, the last time the FED announced a QE (QE3) it was September of 2012 – directly before the Presidential elections.  So I truly think on October 29th, every member of the FED is going to have to figure out: “Which line they were all in – when they were giving out Testicles.”


The Market:

A couple weeks ago I devoted a large portion of this newsletter to a potential pullback in the market.  I explained all the reasons, the warning signs that were flashing, and how we could be looking for our first, true 10% correction in over 3 years.  We did get the pullback, and (as usual) it magically stopped when the market was down 4.5%.  That is exactly what happened on Wednesday when we got that ‘insane’ 280 point bounce, which looked (once again) like they were going to just let it rip back to the upside, and take us right back to the highs.  But on Thursday – someone didn’t get the memo – because instead of following through with a nice green close – we fell for 300 more points.  And then (as if to add insult to injury) we lost another 115 points on Friday – falling over 445 DOW points in 2 days.

Therefore, we are at a very interesting place indeed.
-       The Russell 2000 has completely broken down,
-       The VIX (fear index) jumped over 30% on Friday,
-       The TLT (bond index) increased substantially on Friday,
-       The DOW is under it’s 200-day moving average, and
-       The NASDAQ and S&P are sitting at their 200-day moving averages (that have not been broken since 2012.)

This week starts earnings season.  On Tuesday and Wednesday we're going to receive earnings from most of the major banking institutions.  Will they show enough ‘Pro-forma’ earnings to make everyone believe that all is well and jam us higher, or are we really going to finally see our first real correction?  I want to say that this time it is different, and they're NOT going to reverse this any time soon and jam us higher.  But just saying that brings ‘shivers’ to my spine.

I think that the FED will try for a bounce on Monday, because the bond market is closed for the Columbus Day Holiday.  I think that ‘bounce’ will carry into Tuesday and Wednesday and then it’s all up to the earnings in the financial sector.  I think if the financial sector cannot ‘kick it in gear’ in a major way, then ‘yes’ we are headed considerably lower.

For Monday, watch the 200-day moving average on the S&P.  If that fails (with or without the banks), we are going considerably lower.  FYI: If we get a real 10% correction, the DOW will be dropping an additional 1,000 points.  So hold on to your hats.


Tips:

Factually:
1.    Bloomberg reported that companies in the S&P are poised to spend $974B on buy backs this year, which is 95% of ALL their earnings.
2.    Wal-Mart (the single largest employers in the U.S.) announced that it is ending healthcare for its part time workers because it's too expensive.
3.    The difficulty with the markets gaining any footing quickly is the huge headwind coming from the energy sector, where the combination of horizontal drilling and fracking is transforming the industry.  Supply is simply booming and prices are falling.  Back in 2005, the US was importing ten-times (10X) as much oil as it was exporting; now that ratio is down to two-times (2X) and headed lower.  In the next few years, the US could easily become a net exporter of petroleum.  These forces are creating disarray in OPEC.  Saudi Arabia is willing to accept lower prices for oil, undercutting other oil exporters in the Middle East as well as Russia.  West Texas Intermediate, which was $104/barrel in late June is now approximately $86/barrel, and probably has further to fall.

I predict that the next FOMC meeting (at end of October) will sound far more dovish, and will halt or reverse course from their current mentality.  For optics sake, they may wind-down and end the QE3 program, but that will be coupled with a new accommodative policy and certainly long-term zero interest rates.  If they maintain their hawkish tone, this market will come under a huge amount of pressure and it would be damning for the Democrats in the upcoming midterms.  Remember, the market saw corrections of 15% to 18% following the ending of QE1 and QE2.  And, other than the midterm elections – why should this time be any different?

In terms of my own portfolio, I’m fairly ‘ruthless’ in cutting stocks that are declining in a downturn.  My mantra is: “Re-Entry is just a Commission away.”  I either use the a) 2-closes below the 21-day moving average rule, or b) trailing stops to sell during a downturn. 

My current list of potential candidates is as follows:  I still like the indexes RUT, SPX, and NDX.   As far as individual names: CME, CBOE, MON, UA, PRU, STJ, ABT, WYNN, IYT, TRV, FDX, UTX, MYL HERO and TEX.  I like the biotech sector as well with names such as VRTX, AMGN, REGN and IBB beginning to look interesting.

My current short-term ‘Larger-Cap’ holds are:
-       KO (Beverage) – in @ $41.17 – (currently $44.42),

My short-tem ‘Small-Caps’ holds are:
-       IG – in @ $7.27 – (currently $8.43),

To follow me on Twitter and on StockTwits to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>



Sunday, October 5, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 10-5-2014

This Week in Barrons – 10-5-2014:




















Please … Please … Please… (Mr. James Brown)

Dear Ms. Yellen:

Can you ‘Please, Please, Please’ give me a real number?  On Friday you announced that the ‘official’ unemployment rate (the U3) had reached 5.9%, and that 248k people found jobs in the month of September.  Wall Street celebrated and gained almost 200 DOW points.  But inside the report I find that 230K of the jobs (92%) went to people between the ages of 55 and 69, and those jobs were mostly part-time.  The report shows the labor pool continuing to get smaller – as 92.6 million people are currently NOT working.  And lastly, the report says that we have added ZERO manufacturing jobs since July.  So most of the jobs being added are low-wage service jobs – is that correct?  So what does 5.9% really mean? 

Ms. Yellen, I realize that there are 6 official measures of unemployment with U3 being the only one that is broadcast.  The others are:
-       U1 = Unemployed 14 weeks or longer (2.9%),
-       U2 = Recent job losers and completed temp work (3.1%),
-       U3 = Official Unemployment Rate (does not include discouraged, marginal, part-time or those that have fallen off the roles) (5.9%),
-       U4 = U3 + discouraged workers (6.6%),
-       U5 = U4 + marginal workers (7.4%), and
-       U6 = U5 + part-time workers (12.1%).

When I talk to other economists, the ‘broadest’ measure of unemployment is considered to be the U6 because it includes short-term, discouraged, marginally-attached, and those individuals forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.  Up until 1994 the government reported the U6 rate as the official unemployment rate.  Then in 1994 the government modified the U6 ‘discouraged worker’ definition in order to remove those individuals who were unemployed for MORE than one year.  This allowed the U6 rate to come down from 15.3% to a more palatable 11.8%, but ‘obviously’ it did nothing for those people actually unemployed for over 1 year other than to tell them that they were no longer being counted.
 
Ms. Yellen, the other issue with any of these rates, is WHO is considered unemployed – meaning how do we count the total available workforce?  This is important because if I use the pre-financial crisis workforce numbers – then the U3 is closer to 10% than the 5.9% reported on Friday.  And if I use the pre-1994 calculation, then the U3 unemployment rate remains about 10%, and the U6 rate is closer to 23%.  Therefore, I think we have to conclude that the U.S. has NOT reduced unemployment by any significant measure since the height of the financial crisis. It’s been a truly JOBLESS recovery – is that correct?

I mean (Ms. Yellen) if the REAL unemployment rate had fallen below 6%:
-       Why would you need to continue to extend emergency unemployment benefits?
-       Why wouldn’t you have raised interest rates by now - as you ORIGINALLY said you would?
-       And why would you continue to voice concern about significant labor problems in this country?

A nice gentlemen (MW) passed me the graph below: the red line is U3 (government) unemployment = 5.9%.  The gray line is U6, the (pre-Obama) broad representation of the level of unemployment = 12.1%.  And many experts feel that the blue line is our actual level of unemployment = 23.2%.















With over 50% of our country living paycheck to paycheck, and with over 92 million people out of work – Ms. Yellon, can we ‘Please…Please…Please’ get some real numbers?  I guess I could always quote your mentor – Lord Maynard Keynes – and say: “In the end we are all dead – so who cares?”


The Market: 

It’s a full-fledged battle between: BTFD and STFR  

This week:
-       -       You can sense a trend change: from BTFD (Buy The F-g Dip) to STFR (Sell The F-g Rally).
     -       Factory orders fell by 10.2% - the largest fall ever recorded.  For all the talk about a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S., it certainly isn't supported by data coming from big factory orders.
     -       All across Europe the manufacturing indexes have missed estimates, showing that 90% of Europe is right on the edge of a depression.
     -       Warren Buffet (on CNBC) stated that FED policy has inflated all assets, and is concerned that 1970’s type inflation is a real possible outcome.  Following Warren, Alan Greenspan (also on CNBC) said that he agreed with Buffet’s assessment 100%.
     -       Over the past 2 weeks, the S&P from intra-day highs, to intra-day lows has seen a 4.6% fall.  That’s just about all that the FED has allowed over the past 3 years.
     -       The Ben Bernanke (speaking at a conference in Chicago) said that he tried to refinance his mortgage and was turned down.  And then he said: “I think that lenders may have gone a little bit too far on mortgage credit conditions."
     -       QE is ending this month.  Lest we forget, when QE1, Q2 and ‘Operation Twist’ each ended – the market fell.
     -       The Russell 2,000 index of small-cap stocks (RUT) is the weakest index, and often leads the other indices by 2-weeks.  The 1,080 level on the RUT is key support.  Over the last year, this is the 4th time that the 1,080 level has been tested.  The previous 3 times this level has held, and the RUT has bounced higher between 7 to 15%.  Each time key support levels are tested they become less and less likely to hold.
     -       Bonds had a monster move this week of over 2 points.  This is a ‘flight to safety’ signal.  I’m looking for an additional 3-point move by the end of October.
     -       In General: China’s economy is slowing, and is at a standoff with ‘pro-democracy’ protestors.  ISIS is cutting off more heads.  Natural gas supplies in the Ukraine are tightening.  Europe and Japan are on the brink of imploding.  U.S. housing is dead, jobs are a disaster, and ‘insiders’ are selling their own stock in droves.  In the past two weeks triple digit reversals have become commonplace.  And – Ebola is spreading.  This usually spells a ‘trend change.’

Lastly, Gold dropped below $1,200 per ounce this week, but physical demand for the metal couldn’t be higher.  In September, the government sold: 58,000 gold eagles, 14,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes, 4,140,000 silver eagles, and 2,700 platinum eagles.  The only product that didn't see a sales increase of over 100% over August was the gold buffalo – that increased only 81%.  How is physical demand for gold ‘off the charts’ yet prices continuing to fall? 

The world produces about 2,200 tons of gold per year.  China, India and Russia consume that quantity themselves.  Until the physical supply is gone, it appears that the price trajectory will remain in tact.  After all, no ponzi scheme runs forever.  The good news is, gold and silver have never been worth $0 – which is something I cannot say about most major currencies in the world.   

When a market experiences the gyrations that this market is – it’s signaling a trend change.  The trend has been for the market to go up; therefore, the BTFD philosophy will die a slow death with some traders.  But over the past month, I’ve seen more and more of the STFR rally-cry creeping into trader’s behavior.

I feel that the market is going to trade sideways for this coming week.  The FED will not be willing to let it roll over before the mid-term elections, but I don’t believe that we can generate the volume and buying pressure to make new highs.  I believe the current danger is to the downside, because there are more reasons to go lower, than to go higher.  With that in mind, I’m becoming a little more defensive during the month of October.


Tips:

If we take a look at the various markets and sectors:
-       This past week we had $8.3 B of outflows from US Equities, and another 1.2 B of outflows out of Sector funds.
-       We had $6.5 B of inflows into bond funds – a flight to safety.
-       And we saw highly increased volume to the downside.
-       Most of the indexes have pierced their 89-day extended moving average, but the Russell 2000 index (RUT) has virtually been decimated and poised to drop much further.
-       The RUT is often 2 weeks ahead of the S&P.
-       The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) took out its 55-period moving average.  The last time it did this was in April.
-       The Bond market exploded 2 points higher this week – panic buying.  I’m looking for an additional 3 points of upside.
-       If you’re looking to play the downside of this market – think: TZA, SDS and FAZ.
-       Downside moves erase upside gains in 1/5th the time as selling begets more selling.

My current list of potential candidates is as follows;   on the radar are the indexes RUT, SPX, and NDX which I will look to sell CALL CS on Rallies.   As far as individual names, I still see opportunities in the stocks CBI, CME, CBOE, MON, UA, PRU, STJ, ABT, WYNN, IYT, TRV, FDX, UTX, MYL and TEX.  I like the biotech sector as well with names such as VRTX, AMGN, and REGN and although I said I would avoid it, IBB is starting to look interesting.  I continue to sell 1+ standard deviation PCS’s (Put Credit Spreads) and CCS’s (Call Credit Spreads) on the NDX, SPX and RUT – because selling those are somewhat agnostic to market direction.  If the weekly market direction is ‘UP’ – I sell more Call Credit Spreads, if it’s ‘DOWN’ – I sell more Put Credit Spreads.

My current short-term ‘Larger-Cap’ holds are:
-       FEYE (Cyber-Sec) – in @ $28.76 – (currently $28.29),
-       KO (Beverage) – in @ $41.17 – (currently $43.10),
-       LNG (Energy) – in @ $57.40 – (currently $77.30), and  

My short-tem ‘Small-Caps’ holds are:
-       DEPO – in @ $15.19 – (currently $15.35),
-       EIGI – in @ 16.81 – (currently $16.81),
-       IG – in @ $7.27 – (currently $9.29),
-       INSY – in @ $35.14 – (currently $42.28),
-       LEJU – in @ $14.01 – (currently $14.07),
-       MLBY – in @ $57.02 – (currently $57.70),
-       RARE – in @ $56.60 – (currently $57.28),
-       VDSI (Cyber-Sec) – in @ $14.17 – (currently $20.21).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>