RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, January 8, 2017

This Week in Barrons - 1-8-2018

This Week in Barrons – 1-8-2017:




“Nobody knows where the market is going.  It’s your job to know what to do when it gets there.”… Raghee Horner

Remember when Mr. Spock was the logical one.  This week SF and I attempted to put some logic around President Obama's Affordable Care Act and the decreasing U.S. unemployment rate.  Was Obamacare (with its employer mandate) simply a piece of a larger employment puzzle?  What if Obamacare was designed to decrease the unemployment rate?  Currently the U.S. has a large part-time workforce.  FED Chair Yellen has talked about part-time workers being at ‘very high levels’ during each of her last three press conferences, at nearly every speech in the last six months, and in both of her past two Congressional testimonies.  Excluding the Great Recession, the millions of Americans who work part-time but want full-time jobs are at their highest level in 30 years.  Experts believe the current number of part-timers is a ‘new normal’, and can be referred to as ‘hidden unemployment’.  These part-timers are OFF the unemployment line – yet over 25% of them are living in poverty.  Most part-timers are: (a) paid less per hour than full-time workers, (b) will lose their jobs before full-time workers, and (c) are given no health benefits or paid time off.

The key provision that ties Obamacare to the unemployment rate is the one that requires employers to offer health care coverage to employees who work 30 hours or more per week – or pay a $2,000 per employee penalty.  To avoid paying the penalty or health coverage, companies like Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and a host of others lowered the number of hours that employees worked (making them part-timers).  The number of part-timers has seen over a 50% increase since the pre-recession years.   I think that the mandatory insurance provision within Obamacare contributed to the increase in part-timers.  Correspondingly, I believe that repealing Obamacare will have the ‘unintended consequence’ of INCREASING the unemployment rate because: (a) In order to avoid the insurance mandate, employers would have hired multiple part-timers instead of a full-time employee, and (b) Once the insurance mandate goes away, employers will then return to hiring full-time employees (rather than the multiple part-timers) – returning part-timers back to the unemployment line.

Therefore, if Obamacare is repealed/replaced without the employer mandate, then look for a decrease in the number of part-timers, and the unemployment rate to rise.

Coincident with this, the Senate is holding hearings on foreign cyber threats to the U.S.  The hearings are producing a definite ‘Russians are Evil’ theme.  The hearings are telling us that the U.S. only DEFENDS itself, and does NOT attempt to influence other nations.  Political scientist Dov Levin (a postdoctoral fellow at the Institute for Politics and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon University) found that the U.S. attempted to influence as many as 81 foreign elections between 1946 and 2000.  Often covert, these efforts included everything from CIA operatives running successful presidential campaigns in the Philippines in the 1950s, Chili in the 1960s, and Haiti in the 1990s – to leaking damaging information on the Sandinistas in order to sway Nicaraguan voters in 1990.  Dr. Levin’s data came from declassified U.S. intelligence, Congressional reports on CIA activity, academic research on U.S. intelligence, diplomatic histories of the Cold War, and memoirs of former CIA officials.  His research shows that the U.S. targeted the elections in 45 nations across the globe, and in the case of countries such as Italy and Japan, the U.S. directly intervened.  So it doesn’t appear that the U.S. can play the cyber-victim card any time soon.

It also doesn’t appear that this witch hunt against Russia is going to stop.  Let’s all hope that PM Putin bites his tongue during this provocation and remains calm.  We’ve been poking the Russian bear in the eye for several years now, and Trump is the ONLY shot we have at not going to war with another nuclear power.  I’m hoping that sanity prevails so that we can all: “Live long and prosper.”


The Market:
It will definitely take more than a few weeks to determine the true impact of a Trump Presidency, but it is clear that the Stock and Bond markets have reacted immediately.  U.S. GDP growth in 2016 is still expected to be a meager 1.5%, with Global growth surpassing 3.1%.  With tax cuts and less regulations, early forecasts for U.S. GDP in 2017 have moved up to 2.5%.  Recessions are almost never forecast, but we average one every six years, and our last one was 7 years ago.






































-       U.S. inflation and protectionist threats have caused the global currency war to reaccelerate. A strong U.S. Dollar hinders U.S. earnings growth, and may slow the FED’s planned rate increases.
-       Low earnings are clearly a function of low global GDP growth.  With 50% of S&P revenue coming from outside the U.S., the strong dollar will be a considerable head-wind to growth.
-       Watch the 3rd party oil auditors for some shenanigans over the next 180 days.  Cash strapped countries will see oil hit $55 a barrel, and then they will begin to flood the market with oil – dissolving the production agreement and the price.
-       Watch copper as it’s often the commodity used to predict growth and corresponding inflation.
-       Gold is ‘shortable’ as long as it remains less than $1,200 an ounce.  Over that – the race is on to the upside.
-       Thanks to Chris @ Rockhaven Capital for the following graphical display:

There is a ‘turnaround’ theme coming out of stock newsletters.  Below, I’ve compiled a list of recommendations from the ones that I read:
-       Crocs (CROX) = $6.85 – They have brought in new management with experience in shoes and turnaround execution.  They’re closing unprofitable stores, and revamping distribution networks.
-       Oaktree Capital (OAK) = $37.50 – Since 2010, companies have issued high-yield debt at record levels.  With interest rates going up, and a lot of the debt coming due – it will be harder for companies to refinance that debt.  Oaktree Capital specializes in refinancing and restructuring debt, has funds available, and pays a 6% dividend.
-       Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) = $82 – Even without economic growth, cruise lines like Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Norwegian are benefiting from the aging population.
-       Amgen (AMGN) = $146 – Biotech stocks were hammered on fears of government controlled drug pricing.  Amgen is one of the best in the space, and is trading at just 13 times earnings.  It has important drugs, a  robust pipeline, and a boatload of cash for stock buybacks, funding R&D, and paying a 2.7% yield.
-       Priceline (PCLN) = $1,466 – Priceline’s booking.com is the top travel website.  Europe (because of its size and number of independent hotels) relies on booking.com to bring in guests.  Priceline’s strong hotel network makes a good competitive advantage and barrier to entry.
-       Eaton Vance (EV) = $42 – Bond funds (like EV) have performed badly as of late, and investors favor ETFs over managed funds.  But if the indices stall after years of steady gains, managed bond funds such as EV could once again have their day in the sun.

The mood of the analysts continues to be rosy.  I’m constantly hearing how wonderful things are, and how the market is fine to buy now.  I still think the ‘powers that be’ want to get to DOW 20K for a couple days so they can bring out the hats and high five each other.  On Friday, the DOW made it to 19,999.63 – 37 cents away from DOW 20K.  They had their hats in hand, their kazoos tuned up, and the confetti ready – only to be delayed once again.  The question is: Did we get ‘close enough’, or does it need to see an actual 20K print?  I think we will attain 20K and continue to consolidate around it – prior to producing the next definitive move lower into a meaningful correction.

In 1999, it took us quite some time to wobble around, and break through DOW 10K.  The market is still ‘luring in’ January 401K money.  Tax selling hasn't hit yet, and momentum is still on the side of the buyer.  After Inauguration Day, as earnings start to pour out, I think we will see the market pull down.  Because of the market’s price and the large amount of ‘hopium’, I'm not a big believer in this market – and am forever reminded of the Greenspan quote: “Markets can remain irrational, longer than you can remain solvent.”


TIPS: 
I’m reminded of a quote by Doc Severson: “Tops are a process, and bottoms are an event.”  This refers to the fact that a ‘topping pattern’ takes time to develop and execute – where a bottom can be signified by an event such as BrExit or an election.  The chart below and on the left shows the past year, with the Russell ‘small cap’ index on the top (purple line) leading the way higher, and the NASDAQ trailing.  The chart on the right is the past week – showing a dramatic role reversal with the NASDAQ leading the way higher and the Russell falling.



With market and sector rotations being as immediate and violent as they are, it might be wise just to buy the big ETFs here.  If we’re going to hit 20K – then the DIA and the SPY should move in tandem.  I think that the indices are safer than individual stocks right now.

This past week there was a rotation into technology.  Keep an eye on the semi-conductor ETF: SMH.  I think that the technicals are going to start improving in this sector, and if so – the SMH could make a nice move higher in the near future.

I believe that a pullback is coming because: 
-       VOLATILITY is extremely low,
-       BONDS are rallying.  This should cause the financials (XLF) to sell off, but they have not (as of yet).  Watch this over the next several weeks – potentially coincident with their earnings announcement(s).
-       TECH is rallying prior to earnings, but a STRONG DOLLAR will be a drag on their earnings.
-       The RUT (Russell small cap index) could be signaling the future – again.  In November, it foretold the markets moving higher.  If it continues moving lower, it will bring the rest of the markets with it.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson


Sunday, January 1, 2017

This Week in Barrons - 1-1-2017

This Week in Barrons – 1-1-2017:


“Cheers to the new year and another chance for us to get it right.” … Oprah Winfrey

Thoughts:
Happy New Year!  Along with the celebration, we learned that:
  1. George Washington University history majors are NO LONGER required to take a U.S. history course.  The History Department Chair explained: “As a result of declining interest and enrollment, we've decided that a reduction in course requirements answers that problem, gives us a new way to recruit students, and better reflects a globalizing world."  In many ways, this reinforces my belief that some College majors have simply become sandboxes for kids that have grown too big to play on swing sets.

  1. President Barack Obama created the ‘Ministry of Truth’ by signing a $611B military authorization.  Hidden within the massive appropriation was a provision that funds the Center for Information Analysis and Response – dubbed the ‘Ministry of Truth’.  The center’s responsibilities include:
    1. “Countering propaganda and disinformation as defined by the center,
    2. Using covert or clandestine special operators and agents to influence targeted populations,
    3. Paying select members of academia and journalism to proactively promote fact-based narratives and policies, and
    4. Exposing and refuting foreign misinformation and disinformation - as defined by the center."
    5. In a nut-shell the new authorization will (according to Aaron Kesel): “Allow our government to crack down with impunity against any media outlet it deems to be promoting propaganda.  It provides substantial amounts of money to fund counter propaganda, and makes sure that the government's approved stories drown out alternative media and journalists who question the status quo.  Welcome to 1984."



  1. The tone of next week’s CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas is expected to shift back to software.  From augmented reality to the Internet of Things to autonomous cars to robotics to wearables and smart energy – hardware is but a tool used to power the software experience.
    1. Forecasters believe that integrating more augmented reality into our lives will pick up where virtual reality failed.
    2. Tesla and Uber are clearly at the forefront of autonomous vehicle development.  Hopefully 2017 brings Detroit and Silicon Valley closer to integrating than colliding.
    3. Wearable devices will begin to focus on health and fitness benefits.
    4. Ai has the potential to usher in a resurgence in productivity with both menial and complicated tasks being handed off to machines.
    5. Cloud computing, data centers, and power-chips will continue to be the backbone of our increasing connected and bandwidth constrained environment.

Yes Oprah, we have yet “another chance to get it right.”  But as I age, I am finding that the destination does not get any clearer.


The Markets:
In an uncertain environment, the one element on which I can be certain – is that 2017 will NOT be like 2016.  The November election brought an end to the longest ‘Nanny State’ on record.  We finally chose growth over increased regulation and taxation, and we chose risk over political correctness and participation trophies.  In 2017, a businessman President will be surrounded by a business cabinet that dislikes regulation.  While this will make our markets more free and capitalistic – it is not without risk.  Decreased taxes and regulations will increase volatility in economic growth, interest rates, and profit margins.  We may even return to an environment where companies actually fail and go out of business.  The graphs below show 2 things: (a) Our economy is approaching a necessary correction / recession, and (b) Our wages continue to decrease while our educational costs rise.




A couple Wall Street and CW predictions for 2017 are:
-       The S&P 500 will grow by less than 5%,
-       With U.S. Consumer Confidence surging to its highest level in 15 years – GDP growth will be less than 1.5%,
-       With record high levels of investor confidence – total investor returns will be a NEGATIVE 10%, and
-       Using Warren Buffett’s valuation measure (the graph of Total Market Capitalization to US GDP growth above) – the U.S. is poised for an early 2017 recession producing NEGATIVE returns.




As the above graph suggests, 2017 will be all about the U.S. dollar.  The dollar is moving higher relative to other currencies based upon Trump’s pro-business policies leading to strong economic growth.  Two elements of a strong dollar are worth exploring:
  1. Our Debt:      The 2008 crash exposed the U.S. consumer as one who would rather purchase than earn.  In 2008, we ran out of available credit and could no longer finance our debt.  Currently the majority of our population has limited access to credit.  Combine this with wage stagnation and you have a tough recipe for growth.  With interest rates continuing to rise and wages remaining constant – J. Q. Public will have less disposable income.  And how do we ever expect emerging markets to re-pay their debts (in U.S. dollars) – when the value of our dollar continues to rise?
  2. Our Demographics:           The U.S. population growth rate has slowed to 1.84 children per woman – below the ‘replacement rate’.  This means that our population is dying faster than they’re being born.  Ironically it’s our immigration policy (including illegals) that is offsetting our population decline.  The majority of our immigrants are low-skilled with limited income and credit availability, and it’s the high-end skill set that is not being replaced.  This places the burden of consumption, credit, and growth squarely on the shoulders of the millennial generation.

Over 50% of the revenue from S&P 500 corporations is export focused.   Therefore, a strong export ability is a requirement – which (in turn) depends upon export pricing power.  Regardless of Trump’s policies, if the dollar remains strong – foreign nations will seek alternatives to expensive U.S imports.  That will lead to weak economic growth and companies making tough, bottom-line decisions. Trump will face his first foreign trade deals in early 2017, and how those go will determine the tone going forward on exports and the dollar.

The world wants the U.S. to continue to produce, grow, and consume.  In order to achieve that goal, we will need to move from CONSUMING to PRODUCING.  And while Trump is a citizen’s ‘breath of fresh air’, he needs a weaker dollar in order to become the world’s producer.


TIPS:























-       The GDX gained almost 7% last week (as we thought that it might) – so we’re heading into the New Year on a winning streak. 
-       As the market tries for DOW 20,000, this week will show us a stall and potentially a market retracement.  4th quarter earnings may show some strength, but the strong dollar has already brought out a series of warnings from companies concerning their estimates for future growth.
-       In terms of precious metals:
o   The Muslims have been granted the religious freedom to use gold as an investment vehicle.  The Islamic council will make this effective the first week of January, and it will be interesting to see if the metals will run higher over the next 8 weeks. 
o   Lamoureux & Co. believe that “Both gold and silver will go down for the first half of 2017, and then move into a new bull market that will last well into 2020.”
o   China has surpassed the U.S. in oil consumption.  Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia have joined together to sell oil to China in Yuans (instead of dollars) via the newly minted Shanghai Gold Exchange.  China is paying their bills in Yuans – but immediately cycling the Yuans through the Shanghai Gold Exchange in order to make actual payment to Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia in physical gold.  None of those 4 nations want any more U.S. paper, but GOLD (it seems) makes no enemies.

Finally, I wish everyone a happy and healthy new year.  If you have your health, a roof over your head, something to eat, and friends and family to share it with – the year will be just fine.  Happy New Year.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/>
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson