RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, November 8, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 11-8-2015

This Week in Barrons – 11-8-2015:

Thoughts:















“Like a kite dancing in a Hurricane” … Spectre (James Bond movie)


Dear Ms. Yellen:

The quote: “Like a kite dancing in a hurricane” came from the latest James Bond movie – but can equally describe the U.S. economy.  The world is choosing sides between China / Russia and the U.S. / U.K.  They have seen the U.S. perform a Ukrainian coup – blame it on the Russians – impose sanctions against Russia – and consequently cause Europe millions of dollars in lost revenue.  They have also seen Russia destroy more ISIS installations in a month than the U.S. has in the past year and a half.  And now the world is questioning whether our intentions in the Middle East are for taking down ISIS, or for destabilizing the region (like we did in Libya and Iraq).

Last Thursday, Europe did something amazing that received virtually no air play in the U.S.  The European Union's Parliament voted to DROP ALL charges against former National Security Agency contractor: Edward Snowden.  The Parliament said: “Not enough has been done to protect the rights of EU citizens from mass surveillance”.  They labeled Mr. Snowden an "International human rights defender" and offered him asylum within the European borders.

This is an enormous ‘middle finger’ that Europe just gave the U.S.  Four years ago Europe would have followed blindly along with the U.S.’s trumped-up charges, arrested and deported Mr. Snowden as a major criminal.  Today, Europe said: “Mr. Snowden is defending human rights, and is welcomed in the Eurozone.”  This is huge. 

Ms. Yellen, take this as fair warning – Europe (behind the scenes) is applauding your initiative to raise interest rates.  You are ‘single handedly’ increasing the value of the U.S. dollar, limiting every U.S. company’s ability to compete overseas, and dramatically increasing the probability of DEFLATION.  Your interest rate hike could push the dollar index to over 100, and that’s something we haven’t seen in over a decade.  

I have seen the world overcome: Vietnam, the Cold War, the oil embargo, wild inflation, and a host of other ills – but I have never seen today’s disjointed madness:
-       Nation after nation is printing trillions of dollars because the global finance machine is stuck in neutral.
-       The entire Middle East is on fire.
-       China has surpassed the U.S. in both manufacturing and credit.
-       Russia has gone from being the ‘bad guy’ to the ‘good guy’.
-       Europe is burning with rage at all of the refugee camps.
-       And 4 nations now employ negative interest rates. 

Ms. Yellen, you have successfully allowed the largest economy in the world – to become “a kite dancing in a Hurricane.”  In the movie, James Bond saves the world.  In real life, I don’t see reality imitating art any time soon.


The Market:

Factually:
-       For every 1 job created in the US this decade, U.S. corporations have spent $296,000 on stock buybacks.
-       35% of ALL California millennials live with their parents.
-       German production fell 1.7% last month.
-       Layoffs are currently running 13% higher than last year.
-       Standard and Poor cut Saudi Arabia's credit rating.
-       The Atlanta FED lowered its U.S. full year GDP estimate to 1.9%.
-       The ISM Manufacturing Index tumbled to its weakest point in 3 Years 
-       $6.3 trillion in global government bonds currently yield less than 0% 
-       There have been 606 global rate cuts since the Lehman Bros. disaster. 
-       China's manufacturing is down to 2008 levels, despite its $1 Trillion debt injection.
-       Mario Draghi admits that global QE has failed and that "The slowdown is probably not temporary”.
-       Bill Ackman's hedge fund will lose $2.5 Billion on their VRX position.  This will ripple through the hedge fund community.
-       The FANG stocks (F = Facebook, A = Amazon, N = NetFlix, and G = Google) have accounted for 20% of the stock market’s increase, and have one thing in common – they all do NOT make anything.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report was released on Friday, and it showed us creating 271k jobs in October, the unemployment rate dropping to 5%, and wages rising by 2.5%.  A better report you could not have made up.  However, when you burrow into the report, the ‘ugly’ shines through.
-       First, the birth/death model accounted for 165k (61%) jobs – that most likely don't exist.
-       Second, the over 55 year-old demographic absorbed virtually ALL of the new jobs.
-       And third, the prime working age demographic (25 to 54) actually LOST 119k jobs.

The FED has taken this report as a green light to raise interest rates.  And TV’s ‘talking heads’ are trying to get me to believe that the economy will boom as rates rise.  So if mortgage applications fell by 12% with zero interest rates, why won’t they fall even further when mortgage rates rise?  Don't get me wrong – interest rates should NEVER be at zero (or below).  That is a massive distortion.  What I am saying is that the economy is now based upon zero interest rates, and any hike (no matter how small) will have a negative effect in the short term.

The only other distortion-focused time (that I have seen) was the 1999 - 2000 Tech bubble.  In many ways, this time it’s worse.  In 1999, interest rates were normal, with the Fed funds rate being around 5.25%.  In 1999, the FED had NOT printed $4 Trillion, and done 4 layers of QE.  And in 1999, employment was good, and the labor market was tight.  Currently, most of the really smart money no longer trusts this stock market.  This week David Tepper explained that his funds are not doing so well because they have been cautious.  They are far from being fully invested, and said: “Reality can be beaten back when you have insane central planners propping the market up with money they print out of thin air.”  Right now the FED is putting on a tremendous show – sucking in investor money.  However both Doug Casey and Gerald Celente (market prognosticators) have come out expecting crashes by the end of the year.

For example, on Friday (just as the market was rolling over) someone placed 4 ‘monster’ S&P futures buys – 10 seconds apart – which saved the index and the market(s).  Based upon the size of these purchases, the FED and the government’s Plunge Patrol Team (PPT) were the ONLY possible buyers.  In the short term, fraud trumps market technicals.  So while the picture suggests that a much lower market is coming, it really boils down to whether the FED will let it happen.

I think we could see the big averages like the DOW and the S&P take a pause this week, but it might not be a true sell off.  Watch the small caps via the Russell (RUT) and the IWM.  I could see the market move out of large cap names and move into small caps – using the fear of a December rate hike as their fuel.  The rate hike fear has caused the dollar to go ballistic, so it would make sense to turn to companies (such as the small caps) that have domestic rather than international exposure.  We certainly live in interesting times.


TIPS:

Watch the Small Cap stocks (shown by the Russell Index) this week.  If the Russell (RUT) pulls back below 1180, we could see a short-term sell-off in the other indices.  The VIX (a volatility indicator) is holding up well.  While it is below the 15-level, it is not at a level that shows broader based optimism.  Perhaps it is holding up because there is still concern about a December rate hike.  We could be setting up for a breakout Santa Claus rally, but so far the Russell and the VIX are not totally buying into that.

INDU 17,910: Resistance will come in at 18,000 if we open flat on Monday.
NDX 4,707:   The tech heavy index (despite its climb) has seen some huge volatility.  Look at 4600 as low support, but I don’t like the gap below that.
SPX 2,099:    Closing at 2100 will comfort the markets to start the week.
RUT 1,200:   For me it is all about the order flow in the Russell.  The index hasn’t shown great confidence in the equity markets since June, and while we have come off the lows in October, we are still shy of seeing a breakout rally.

After doing some earnings trades in Facebook and Disney, I remain very light:
-       AG – BOUGHT Stock @ $3.58 / and Jan, 2018 $2 Calls @ $2.30
-       AUY – BOUGHT Stock @ $2.50 / and Jan, 2017 $2 Calls @ $0.90
-       EGO – BOUGHT Stock @ $4.00 / and Jan, 2017 $3.50 Calls @ $1.10
-       GFI – BOUGHT Stock @ $2.80 / and Jan, 2017 $2.50 Calls @ $0.90
-       IAG – BOUGHT Stock @ $2 / and Jan, 2017 $1.50 Calls @ $0.85
-       FFMGF – BOUGHT Stock @ $0.33
-       SPX:
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Nov @ 1950 / 1955 to 2150 / 2155.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, November 1, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 11-1-2015

This Week in Barrons – 11-1-2015:

Thoughts:















Allow me to introduce your new boss.


Dear Ms. Yellen:

Remember when Herman Edwards said: “You play, to Win – the Game”?  As the economic data continues to weaken, can you win this game?  After all, you’re currently sitting at ‘zero’ interest rates, and you’re already the world’s largest buyer and holder of bonds and mortgage back securities.  With GDP coming in at a disappointing annual rate of 1.5% rate, I have to wonder, how long you will last in your present position under President Donald Trump?

When I first wrote about Donald Trump’s success, I received a lot of comments about him being a ‘novelty’ and a ‘flash in the pan’.  But the voting public continues to think differently.
-       They’re not buyin’ another 4 years of ‘same old – same old’. 
-       They like qualities such as: flamboyance, daring, wealthy and worldly.
-       They know that ‘illegals’ are taking our jobs – both here and abroad.
-       And that costs continue to rise, while wages continue to fall.

Donald Trump is the only candidate talking J.Q. Public’s thinking to heart.  When John Harwood (of CNBC) dismissed Trump as a ‘comic book’ candidate – 75 million tweets went out defending ‘The Donald’.  The great political machines are scared, as they never thought that Trump or Carson could hang in there.  The fact that both have gained in market share have many running scared.  Donald Trump’s message of: ‘Make America Great Again’ resonates with J.Q. Public.  The public wishes for the ‘good old days’, and Trump promises that he’ll give them back.

But my question to you Ms. Yellen is: Can you win the game?  Because if Donald Trump is elected, history shows that he surrounds himself with winners.  And if you’re not winning the economic battle, you can expect to hear another ‘now famous’ quote: “You’re Fired.”


The Market:

So the market is in melt up mode beyond any reason.  I was reminded last night about the Greenspan quote: “The market can remain irrational – longer than you can remain solvent”.  Meaning, you may have shorted this market 200 S&P points ago, knowing that it does not fundamentally belong this high.  Meanwhile, you're going broke as it simply moves higher and higher.

We are looking at one of the best Octobers in HISTORY.
-       Draghi of the ECB is printing $80 Billion a month.
-       Chevron recently laid-off 7,000 people, and Husky laid-off another 1,400.
-       The most recent PMI report showed employment falling back, and order backlogs contracting for the 8th straight month.
-       Sweden, Denmark, Italy, Switzerland, Germany and others are selling notes with NEGATIVE interest rates.  This has never happened in the history of mankind.
-       The Wall Street Journal talked about how stocks are up on hopes of more stimulus.
-       And this week September durable goods orders fell by 1.2%, and August was revised LOWER by 3%.

This October rally is all on the hopes of more FED stimulus.  Whether it's Japan, Europe, China or the FED – it’s all about: “More Please!”  It’s not earnings.  It’s not employment.  It’s not capital expenditures for equipment.  It’s not durable goods orders.  It’s not anything tied to fundamentals.  It’s all about free money.

This is a very dangerous market.  While everyone loves it when stocks are rising and their 401's are making money; when markets run higher on hopes of debasing the currency, or on hopes that the last standing savers will finally jump into a bloated market – you know that this bubble will find a sharp object.  We saw this same movie in 1999.  The market melted up into year-end, and then in March it started lower – ending with the NASDAQ 60% lower.

There's little question that the market is tired.  It needs more than a pause – it needs a few big red days to work off some of the froth.  Was Friday's 92-point drop the start of it?  It could be.  But Monday is the first trading day of a new month and more times than not, new months bring in some new pension money – so I wouldn't be surprised if we move up for a day or two and then roll over.

But that said, there was a development on Saturday morning that may prove to be disturbing.  A Russian passenger jet with 223 people on board crashed, and all the passengers perished.  While that is a huge tragedy on its own, ISIS has claimed responsibility.  Normally that would just be propaganda, but video has surfaced showing an airliner flying alongside and then exploding.  Whether or not that video is real or not, is certainly a question.  However, if Russia decides that ISIS was responsible – it opens a new can of worms.  Remember, our allies support these mutants with money and weapons, and many were trained within the U.S.  This is a development that could move markets, so we will need to keep an eye on how Europe is trading early tomorrow morning.

If you're trading this market, keep your position size small and your time frames short.  The last quarter of the year is usually the strongest, but I wonder if the insanity of October pulled forward a lot of the gains that would have normally come in November and December.

Just keep your fingers near the sell buttons.  When this market runs out of steam, the rush for the exits is going to be epic.


TIPS:

INDU 17,664:           There is resistance at 17,800 and support 17,200.
NDX 4,648:               The tech heavy index is pushing up against resistance.  Apple’s earnings were good but not great.  Look for back-filling here.
SPX 2079:                 I would look at 2100 as resistance with 2040 as support.
RUT 1162:                The Russell (the broadest market measure of order flow) is lagging the other indices.  A close this week above 1180 could mean we are heading for a holiday Fed rally.  On the other hand, a close below 1140 could find us heading back to 1120 or 1100 – as real fundamental concerns are starting to drown Fed’s easy money.

I’m looking for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls Report to force some consolidation around the 2061 level of the S&P, and then later down into the 2035 level.
-       AG – BOUGHT Stock @ $3.58 / and Jan, 2018 $2 Calls @ $2.30
-       AUY – BOUGHT Stock @ $2.50 / and Jan, 2017 $2 Calls @ $0.90
-       EGO – BOUGHT Stock @ $4.00 / and Jan, 2017 $3.50 Calls @ $1.10
-       GFI – BOUGHT Stock @ $2.80 / and Jan, 2017 $2.50 Calls @ $0.90
-       IAG – BOUGHT Stock @ $2 / and Jan, 2017 $1.50 Calls @ $0.85
-       FFMGF – BOUGHT Stock @ $0.33
-       SPX:
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Nov1 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2085 / 2090.


To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>