RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, August 16, 2015

This Week in Barrons – 8-16-2015:















“3-Quickies”


Thoughts:

Stayin’ Alive:            The formula is: Revenue – Costs = Profit or Loss.  This is a formula that Greece and most Western nations ignore, and consequently leads to massive deficits and debts.  Unlike the United States and Japan, most nations do not possess their own central bank, and therefore cannot simply print away their money problems or monetize their debt by printing money and buying their own bonds.  Their only option is fiscal responsibility.  Unfortunately Greece gave up their own currency (the drachma) when they joined Euro Zone.  Of course if Greek history is any measure, even with their own currency they have repeatedly led their economy into the toilet and hyperinflation.  There is a reason it is called a Greek tragedy.  Most recently the Greek Prime Minster, Tsipras, (while feeling ‘unloved’) asked parliament for a vote of confidence on August 20th.  August 20th  just happens to be when the Greeks are due to to make their first bailout debt payment.  What is interesting is that if Tsipras loses the vote of confidence, it would not only trigger another election, but would also halt any bailout agreement, pitch Greece into full economic turmoil and put a default on the payment.  So we have that to look forward to this week.

Lookin’ for a Job?  If you’re looking for full-time employment, do NOT go to California.  California is ranked 2nd amongst all 50 starts for the highest underemployment rate – 14%.  California’s economy is heavily dependent on agricultural production in its Central Valley, which is one of the nation’s largest food sources.  Agriculture’s demand for water is high, and the state’s ongoing drought has been costly.  According to The Atlantic, the agricultural sector lost $2.2 billion and 17,000 jobs in 2014 due to drought.  Full-time work was even more scarce in Los Angeles County, where the underemployment rate was 16.0%.  On the other hand, while the labor force in most states shrank from 2007 through last year, California’s labor force grew 5.1%.  When looking for full-time employment, the only state worse than California is Nevada.  Nevada’s underemployment rate is 15.2%, and their GDP ‘shrank’ by 13.2% from 2007 thru 2014.

Currency Wars – Pt2:        Whether SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) become the new world reserve currency is speculation, but no doubt it is becoming a force and nations are using them to supplement reserves.  The real concern is what is going to happen to the dollar?  A rate hike could spike the dollar higher, and that would spell serious trouble for exports.  If the FED doesn’t hike rates, but continues to perpetuate the belief that they will – it may buy them some time and create some weakness in the dollar short-term.  If they create the perception that QE4 or some other easing policy is coming, we could see the dollar come tumbling down and spike inflation.   To further complicate this issue, China (this past week) devalued their currency – not once but twice.  The truth is the Fed has put themselves in a difficult situation in which they can NOT act or be direct.  Either action (hike or not) accompanied by a hawkish or dovish statement will bring volatility to the dollar and to the markets.  The Fed needs to devalue the dollar in a slow calming way.  We face the risk of either deflation (Depression) or inflation (Hyper-Inflation), and it all comes down to the Fed.  The Currency wars are heating up, and the Fed is at center stage.


The Market:

There is a strong belief amongst economists that the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) will be the next world reserve currency.  As a reminder, the IMF has its own ‘reserve currency’ that it uses to facilitate currency imbalances across the globe.  It is called a Special Drawing Right (SDR), and is used for many things from lending to a nation for a short-term debt-covering loan, to simply augmenting liquidity during times of stress.

The SDR is made up of a basket of currencies: the U.S. dollar, the GB Pound, the Euro, and the Yen.  China is the second largest economy on earth and for years they've been making a plea to get their currency included in the SDR basket.  The SDR basket would bring China both prestige, and global acceptance of the Yuan.  They applied for SDR acceptance in 2010, but were declined on two fronts: (a) the Yuan wasn't freely traded, and (b) the only reserves that China held were their U.S. dollar denominated holdings.  As much as everyone says gold is a worthless relic, the IMF likes seeing it as a nation's reserve, and China's stated holdings of gold were too small in comparison to their GDP.  So China got ‘huffy’ and threatened to sell their U.S. treasuries, which scared the heck out of the world.  Then (with a bit of a ‘wink and nod’) a deal was made where the price of gold would be capped (so China could amass tons of it) and China would only ‘trickle-sell’ their U.S. treasuries. 

The IMF reviews its SDR basket every 5 years and in 2015 China made another push for inclusion within the basket.  China had increased their gold holdings, and had opened Yuan swap depots in almost 18 nations.  The SDR ruling last week delayed the implementation of the Chinese currency into the SDR until September 2016 – due to the fragility of the global financial situation.  I think the IMF feels that implementing this change prior to then is too short a time span and fears currency upheavals.  For example: every major nation holds a component piece of the SDR basket.  Since that basket is made up of just 4 currencies, each prudent pension fund manager, sovereign nation and major insurance carrier may have holdings in all 4 currencies at any one time.  When the Yuan gets implemented, those same investors are going to sell some portion of their dollars, yen, Euros, and pounds, to raise the money to pick up a weighting of Yuans.  It would make sense for the dollar to lose ground, while the Yuan rises.  So the IMF does not want a dramatically falling dollar – rising Yuan situation. 

All that said, this fall still carries the possibility of some real danger in the global markets.  We have many economic cycles converging, the IMF vote, the ‘Shemitah’ of the Old Testament, and a possible FED rate hike – to name a few.  For the last 6 months the market has been trading in a sideways box between a low of 2040 and a high of 2130 on the S&P.  This range has lasted longer than any time in 50 years, and in fact we've crossed over the 2100 level 23 times (up and down) since January.  Old timers will often say that when a market gets wickedly volatile, it is signaling a change in a major trend.  The trend for the past 6 years has been ‘up’, so it begs the question: Are we in the beginning stages of seeing the market ‘top’ and begin a long protracted decline?  It is difficult to say because the market is not at DOW 18k because of great earnings – but rather due to Central bank manipulations, QE, stimulus programs, and insane credit derivatives schemes.

When you see 200-point up days on low volume, and then days of selling on larger volume, that points to one thing – distribution.  That is to say the big houses push the market higher on low volume, John Q. Public buys in, and then those same big houses sell the market right out from under John Q. Public.  That same pattern has gone on for quite a while now, which also suggests that ‘smart money’ is starting to take some ‘off the table’. 

Lastly, this market looks to be ‘tired’, and without some new form of stimulus plan, or QE announcement by some major nation – we could be looking at a market that is just trading sideways to see what will happen.  I think the real question is what kind of ‘crash’ will it be.  Will it be a series of huge 500 and 1,000-point drops, or will it be a long, drawn-out series of 10% drops, followed by bounces, and then another drop etc.  My vote is with the second scenario.  I think every significant decline will be countered by Central Bank buying.  After all, it’s all they know how to do.  Time will certainly tell, but it's certainly got my attention.

TIPS:

At the end of last week, Consumer Confidence came in lower than expected.   The VIX (a volatility indicator) is not ‘pricing in’ this lack of confidence.  In fact, the VIX (at 12.5 – 14) is pricing in a market bounce higher – with little or no probability of the market breaking down.  Personally, I think the VIX is too low.  With the potential volatility we face, I believe that the VIX should (at the very least) be between 17 and 18.  I believe the Fed will NOT raise rates, and depending on how they phrase their FOMC statement and answer questions in the press conference, we could be setting up for a strong rally.  However September is still far off and this market could sell-off prior to the Fed meeting.  The lower the market goes, the lower the probability the Fed will raise rates.  Expect some volatility in the coming weeks.

Now, you’ve been hearing me talk about the SPX (the S&P Index) continuing to remain around the 2100 level for some time now.  To take advantage of this you can buy an August Butterfly (that expires this coming Friday) – centered around 2100.  I personally purchased a 2070 / 2100 / 2130 call butterfly a couple weeks ago – creating a 1:4 risk versus reward scenario.

I’m currently holding:
-       AAPL – BOUGHT – Diagonal – Sold Sep 130 Calls / Buy Oct 135 Calls,
-       GOOGL – BOUGHT – Butterfly – Aug – 695 / 700 / 705,
-       MDY – SOLD the Sept 245 / 250 to 285 / 290 Iron Condor,
-       NDX – SOLD the SEPT $4875 / 4900 Call Credit Spread for $2.95,
-       SPXPM – SOLD – Iron Condor – SEPT @ 1885 / 1890 to 2200 / 2205,
-       SPX:
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1950 / 1955 to 2150 / 2155,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2165 / 2170,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1955 / 1960 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1990 / 1995 to 2155 / 2160
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept2 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2180 / 2185,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1845 / 1850 to 2190 / 2195, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1870 / 1875 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1925 / 1930 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1905 / 1910 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1915 / 1920 to 2200 / 2205, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2185 / 2190,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1910 / 1915 to 2205 / 2210,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct @ 1895 / 1900 to 2185 / 2190,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2200 / 2205,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1885 / 1890 to 2220 / 2225,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct5 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2200 / 2205,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Nov1 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2205 / 2210,
o   BOUGHT – Butterfly – Aug – 2070 / 2100 / 2130,
o   BOUGHT – Calendar – Sold the Sept1 – 2100 Puts / Bought the Oct1 2100 Puts.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson

<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>

Sunday, August 9, 2015

This Week in Barrons - 8-9-2015


This Week in Barrons – 8-9-2015:












“I think I can … I think I can … I think I can…”


Thoughts:

Mark Twain popularized the phrase: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  This past week, I had the distinct pleasure of accompanying my son to the global, cyber-security conference.  I thought it appropriate because a couple things that truly ‘keep me up at night’ are our complete reliance on the Internet, and our dependence upon the ‘power grid’ for survival.  Both of these are fairly new developments, and are situations where massive outages will cause unthinkable problems.  This conference also served as a reality-check in terms of how public our lives really are, but also as a tremendous wake-up call in terms of how ill-prepared we are for any ‘national’ event.

And then my mind went back to the 1970’s when Global COOLING was the scare.  I am NOT saying that cyber attacks, global cooling or warming (for that matter) aren’t something we should be concerned about.  But scientists are not always correct, theories tend to change as new data is collected, and any long-term predictions are difficult to make.  In fact, I would argue that Global Warming fanatics probably do the legitimate science more harm than good.  Remember, politicians are only thinking about the next election.  Therefore, if nothing happens in the next 4 years, it will be harder for a politician to get more votes and a scientist to get more funding by playing the ‘global warming’ fear card next time around.

I remember some of the headlines from the 1970’s:
- NY TIMES: International Team of Specialists Finds No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend in Northern Hemisphere (January 5, 1978)
- Washington Post: Colder Winters Hold Dawn of New Ice Age – Scientists See Ice Age In the Future (January 11, 1970)
- Time: Science: Another Ice Age? (November 13, 1972)
- LA Times: Is Mankind Manufacturing a New Ice Age for Itself? (January 15, 1970)
- Chicago Tribune:
The Ice Age cometh: The System that Controls our Climate (April 13, 1975)

For example: I’ve heard the President and others repeat that 97% of scientists agree that Global Warming is a problem.  But where did this 97% come from, and is it correct?  The quote comes from the NASA website on Climate Change / Global Warming: http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/.  They examined 11,944 climate abstracts from 1991 to 2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’ and found the following:
-       7,930 scientific papers (66.4%) had NO position, and
-       3,896 papers (32.6%) endorsed global warming and in those papers 97.1% said that humans (to varying degrees) impacted it.

Ah-Hah, this is where the 97% figure comes from.  BUT if we were to properly quote the study: only 29.8% (97.1% of the 32.6%) of scientists believe that Climate Change / Global Warming is a problem impacted by humans.  The issue is that the 97% figure was taken ‘out of context’ and repeated so often that we all believe it, and are now basing our energy policies upon this belief.

How many times does this happen in our lives?  Statistics are a funny thing, and often allow us to phrase a question or extrapolate an answer simply to justify our own belief.  For example, I could say:
-       Less than 1% reject global warming, or
-       97% believe there is climate change, or
-       Only 32.6% believe that humans have impacted Global Warming, or
-       66.4% (over half of the scientists) have no position on Global Warming.

All of the above statements are correct, and either side of the debate could quote from this study to support their view.  The trick is to ASK the right question, rather than trying to ‘tailor the data’ to conform to your hypothesis.  If the question is: “How many believe that Global Warming is impacted by humans?”  The answer is clearly: 29.79%.

The point that I am making is that:
-       From cyber security to climate change, we need to be objective and not automatically accept or deny anything.
-       Do not use fear or misrepresentations of the truth to convince people.
-       Do not use unsubstantiated facts when making broad-sweeping mandates.
-       When in doubt, remind yourself of Global Cooling in the 1970’s, and how the fear, rhetoric, and media hype reached a crescendo – and then died off.  It only takes (a) a few people with irrefutable credentials, (b) the media to sell the fear, and (c) our leaders to repeat it over and over again until we all believe it.
-       And remember peddling fear does more harm than good.  Imagine when legitimate scientists try to go back to the government for grants, after the hype has died down and ‘nothing’ has happened.

This conference reminded me that we all need to be more responsible and accountable for our own actions.  I need to read and study the reports myself, in order to understand what is really going on – rather than just trusting a sound bite or a quote (often taken out of context).  Whether it is our President selling us on fears of weapons of mass destruction or selling us on fears that the oceans will rise – we need to take a breath before our government makes radical decisions that will impact us all.  Why – because all of these issues have become topics of political debates for election purposes and political favors, often at the expense of science and the real issue itself.


The Market:

The market is continuing to experience head winds, and all of the (‘I think I can’) good thoughts may not be enough to keep it from going lower.

This week we learned that:
-       105,696 people were laid-off in the month of July.  This is the first time since 2011 that monthly layoffs exceeded 100,000.
-       The Non-Farm Payrolls Report came in a little light at 215,000 jobs created, while the unemployment rate held at 5.3%.
-       The Russell is 7.5% off its high, the DOW off by 5.6%, the NASDAQ off by 3.8%, and the S&P off by 2.7% from its high.

I normally don’t pay too much attention to the DOW because it’s made up of only 30 stocks.  But what’s worse is that the DOW is price weighted, not market cap weighted.  What this means is that Goldman Sachs (@ $203/share) has a weighting of 7.9%, while General Electric (@ $26/share) has a weighting of 1%. So even though GE (with it’s $262B market cap) is almost three times the size of Goldman Sachs, it’s weighting within the DOW is seven times lower.  So the DOW to me makes no sense, but having said that – the trends that come out of reviewing the indexes can be meaningful.
-       The DOW (for example) has closed down 7 days in a row.  It hasn’t closed down 8 days in a row since August of 2011.  In August 2011 Standard & Poor’s had just downgraded the United State’s credit rating, and at that point caused the biggest market drop since the 2008 crash.  When I look at the price action in individual names, it absolutely makes me bearish but if too many people are feeling bearish, it tips the boat too far in one direction and a rally inevitably follows.
-       The S&P is again pinning at 2,100, and this level just continues to act like a magnet.  Unless something changes, my strategy will continue to involve selling iron condors around 2,100 on the SPX, buying the dips down toward 2,080, and selling the rips up towards 2,120.
-       The NASDAQ has had a strong run in July.  After a solid run higher, combined with a weaker broader market, it seems that some volatility is to be expected.  I’m looking for 4,500 to act as support.
-       I use the Russell as a gauge of broad order flow across the market.  It closed above 1,220 on Friday, and could bounce from that on Monday.

When I review the trends, the DOW has ‘blown-thru’ it’s 200-day moving average and is visiting levels it hasn't seen since January.  The S&P is looking better, but here too the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are getting closer and closer together.  The old adage was that if the 50-day moved up and over the 200-day it was bullish, and as long as the 50-day remained on top – it was still bullish.  Of course it works in the opposite direction, when the 50-day plunges below the 200 it's called a ‘Death Cross’, and often marks a bearish market.  On the DOW, only 24 points separate the 50 and the 200-day moving averages.  On the S&P, there are just 23 points of separation.  We are closer to these two crossing to the ‘downside’ than at any time in the last several years.  Add-in this wicked chop, the failed ‘triple top’, and all the cycles that are coming together this fall, and this market could finally be ready for a big correction.

I won’t start going short until the S&P closes below 2040 for a few days.  Until that time, I just keep playing the hand that’s dealt.


TIPS:

After processing all of this bad news, the knee-jerk reaction could be to sell this market with both hands.  But when you look up you see that the SPX is less than 2% from all-time highs, all you can say is that this is one resilient market.  One potential spot I’m watching closely is the media space, and stocks like Disney (DIS), CBS Corp (CBS), and Time Warner (TWX).  All of these stocks have been obliterated this week after many of them missed earnings, and amid the fears of ‘cord cutting’.  If you’re not familiar with ‘cord cutting’ it’s the idea that fairly soon consumers will no longer have to pay for cable packages, and will be able to pay a-la-carte for just the programming they want.  Unfortunately, I think that the fears here are massively overdone.  People are only consuming more and more content – with or without ‘cord cutting’.  These stocks are getting hit now because there’s so much uncertainty about how this will all play out.  Uncertainty breeds confusion, and in the stock market confusion breeds contempt and lower prices.

I’m currently holding:
-       MDY – SOLD the Sept 245 / 250 to 285 / 290 Iron Condor,
-       NDX – SOLD the SEPT $4875 / 4900 Call Credit Spread for $2.95,
-       RUT – SOLD the August 1140 / 1150 to 1330 / 1340 Iron Condor,
-       SPXPM – SOLD – Iron Condor – SEPT @ 1885 / 1890 to 2200 / 2205,
-       SPX:
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1950 / 1955 to 2150 / 2155,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Aug4 @ 1995 / 2000 to 2170 / 2175,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2165 / 2170,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1955 / 1960 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept1 @ 1990 / 1995 to 2155 / 2160
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept2 @ 1925 / 1930 to 2180 / 2185,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1845 / 1850 to 2190 / 2195, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1870 / 1875 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept @ 1925 / 1930 to 2215 / 2120, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2175 / 2180,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Sept4 @ 1900 / 1905 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1895 / 1900 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1905 / 1910 to 2210 / 2215,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct1 @ 1915 / 1920 to 2200 / 2205, 
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1850 / 1855 to 2185 / 2190,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct2 @ 1910 / 1915 to 2205 / 2210,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1825 / 1830 to 2200 / 2205,
o   SOLD – Iron Condor – Oct4 @ 1885 / 1890 to 2220 / 2225.

To follow me on Twitter.com and on StockTwits.com to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0


To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>