RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, March 9, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 3-9-2014

This Week in Barrons – 3-9-2014

Ukraine is giving me the Jitters:

While watching a certain financial TV channel, I often need to smile – because it seems that guests are absolute experts in virtually any topic that gets thrown at them – including the following graph.  It’s a scary parallel isn’t it?  It’s no longer a question of ‘IF’ history repeats itself.



However, this week’s topic is the Ukraine.  I listened intently to reporters, analysts, and CEO’s tell me about Russia, Putin, the Ukraine, Ukrainian economics, military strategy and a host of other topics.  I always ask myself: What makes these people think they are experts?  And I wonder how much of this is pure propaganda?

I am not an expert on the Ukraine, but I do know that virtually every student from the age of 7 onward can tell you about the "Nazi Holocaust".  Yet virtually all of those same students have NO idea that Russia (during the winter of 1932-33) starved and killed over 10 million Ukrainians (on Ukrainian soil), and that Stalin killed over 30 million more throughout Russia.  It stands as the single largest human holocaust of all time.

I wonder if those reporters, analysts, and CEO’s:
-       Understand the behind-the-scenes maneuvering that our State Department official (Victoria Nuland) was doing with our U.S. Ambassador to the Ukraine, (Geoffrey Pyatt) to try and get ‘our guy’ into the Ukrainian seat of power? 
-       Know that WE (the U.S.) provoked the rebellion, and attempted to install our own ‘puppet government’.
-       Realize that new revelations suggest that the people killed by ‘Government snipers’ were actually killed by the protestors with the goal of blaming it on the former Ukrainian government to create more international support.
-       And comprehend that we are doing our best to label Putin the monster

The Ukrainian fiasco reminds me very much of the Cuban missile crisis of my youth.  After the U.S. had placed nuclear missiles aimed at Moscow in Turkey and Italy, and after the U.S. failed to overthrow the Cuban regime, in May of 1962 – Nikita Khrushchev proposed the idea of placing Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba to deter any future invasion attempts.  During a meeting between Khrushchev and Fidel Castro in July, a secret agreement was reached and construction of several missile sites begun.  The U.S. considered attacking Cuba via air and sea, but decided on a military blockade (a  ‘quarantine’) for legal purposes.  Under the ‘quarantine’ the U.S. would not permit offensive weapons to be delivered to Cuba, while demanding the dismantlement and return of Soviet weapons back to the USSR.

The Kennedy administration held only a slim hope that the Kremlin would agree to their demands, and expected a military confrontation.  These fears were underpinned by the October 24, 1962 letter by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev to President John F. Kennedy, in which he stated that the U.S. blockade of "navigation in international waters and air space" constituted "an act of aggression propelling human kind into the abyss of a world nuclear-missile war".  However, in secret back channel communications the President and Premier initiated a proposal to resolve the crisis.

You see, the Russians were going to build a missile deployment center in Cuba and our Government was not going to allow such a thing just 90 miles from our coast.  Sound familiar?  When the U.S. provoked the uprising in the Ukraine that overthrew the standing Ukrainian Government, it confronted Russia with two major problems:
-       (1) If the Ukraine were to go ‘Pro EU/US’, there would be a real possibility of some form of NATO military outposts being placed very close to Russia's border.  That would virtually copy Russian missiles being placed in Cuba.
-       (2) Crimea (a portion of the Ukraine) is home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.  The Russian military took up residence in Crimea more than 200 years ago, when Catherine the Great built a naval base at Sevastopol.  After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and Ukraine tussled repeatedly over dividing up the Black Sea Fleet based there, but never came to an agreement.  Today, Russia rents its Sevastopol base from Ukraine, and will never let that base be shut down or overtaken.

Why is it that we (the U.S.) help to start these kinds of uprising over and over again, and then attempt to blame someone else when it goes to ‘heck in a hand-basket’?  If the Ukrainian people want to abandon Russian authority and/or rule, then they should have honest elections, and let the people decide.  Instead we help stir up violent protests with people being shot, beaten and burned, only to have Russia come in and protect its interests, and then we attempt to blame Russia.

The one real ‘sticking’ point in all of this is the existence of a bilateral agreement (signed in 1994) between the U.S., Britain and the Ukraine where we all vowed to come to the defense of the Ukraine if their borders were ever attacked.  Therefore, in truly technical terms, a military action in the Ukraine by Russia ‘demands’ that we respond militarily.  So, what we are seeing play out is either stupidity or insanity, because a military war with Russia cannot be won.

And finally, as China and Russia become increasingly friendlier, together they own 28% of our (U.S.) outstanding debt.  Any agreement between them to start ‘dumping’ U.S. debt on the markets would grind us to a halt in hours.  Yes, it would hurt them too, but one day they will own all the gold they will need to survive the ‘paper dollar’ beating that they would take by ‘dumping’ Treasuries and it will be ‘lights out’ for us.  They realize that they hold the ultimate trump card.  In response to President Obama's suggestion for Russia to back down (otherwise sanctions could be imposed) the Russian presidential advisor, Sergei Glazyev said: “Authorities should dump U.S. Government bonds in the event of Russian companies and individuals being targeted by sanctions over events in Ukraine.  We hold a decent amount of treasury bonds (more than $200 billion), and if the United States dares to freeze accounts of Russian businesses and citizens, we can no longer view America as a reliable partner, and we will encourage everybody to dump U.S. Treasury bonds, get rid of dollars as an unreliable currency, and leave the U.S. market."  He went on to suggest that: “if U.S. sanctions are imposed, then Russian companies would not repay the debts that they owe U.S. banks."  Now Russia's $200 Billion wouldn't completely cripple our treasury markets, but add in some of China's $800 Billion and we are suddenly in a ‘world of hurt.’

This Friday is setting up as a ‘drop dead’ day, as that is the date of the vote by the Crimean citizens to secede from the Ukraine, and to presumably become a part of Russia.  The majority of citizens in Crimea are pro-Russian so this could trigger all kinds of fireworks, as we get closer to the end of the week.  Things would have to get pretty stupid for us to actually have a military response and escalation.  That said, you just witnessed how close and how easily this could escalate, and it would have NO winners. Stay safe out there.


The Market:

On Friday we received the non-farm jobs report.  Thus far every bad economic report has been blamed on the weather.  The jobs report was estimated to be 139k of new hires, and it came in (better than estimates) at 175k.  Which raises the question how could hiring be so robust (in this bad weather), if we couldn’t sell goods and services?  [Factually – 124k of those 175k jobs (71%) were ‘made up / fake’ jobs – contributed by the  ‘Birth/Death’ model.]  I realize that I’m being a bit cynical here, but please – ‘the spin’ is just so ‘in your face’ concerning the economy that you have to poke fun at it.  If a company misses earnings, sales forecasts, etc. – it’s blamed on the weather.  But a better than expected jobs report and suddenly it’s the ‘recovery taking hold.’  Oh – and on Friday right after the jobs report – The Gap (retail stores) reported that their same store sales fell 7%, and they blamed the weather.  But Footlocker (shoe stores) reported a sales increase of 3%.  I guess it doesn’t snow on shoe stores?

SF and I discussed over the weekend the most recent CBO (Congressional Budget Office’s) report concerning the TARP Program.  Congress authorized a $700 Billion rescue in October 2008.  TARP (which spent more than $400 Billion to stabilize banks such as Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, and companies including American International Group and General Motors) will ultimately cost the taxpayers $21 Billion.  It will not be a ‘profitable’ venture as some reports have previously suggested.

Educationally, this week there was a decision to re-do the SAT tests for getting into college.  While the ‘company line’ is that the re-do will open more doors for more people, and allow more people the opportunity to get a chance to get into college.  What the re-do really does is lower the bar for admission.  Factually:
-       (1) Over half of our current high school graduates wouldn’t have made it past the 9th grade 50 years ago,
-       (2) Colleges need the $20 to $40k per year per student they will get from people who go into debt putting their children through college, and
-       (3) We can't have college enrollments fall due to people not being able to pass the admission tests!

As the market flirts with all-time highs, and I see the reality of what America has become, I continue to shake my head.  If I ever thought that the 1998 - 2000 ‘Internet’ market run was based on false hope, which clearly was just the warm-up pitcher for this market’s performance.  The correlated assets continue to diverge but the markets continue to plow ahead.

However, the market head winds this week will be the Ukraine.  The vast majority of what I read describes Putin as needing to expand his empire, but honestly Putin did what any ‘good’ leader of his country would do – he immediately secured the safety of the borders for his country.  That meant securing Crimea.  Does Putin want the remainder of the Ukraine as many are suggesting?  While there's potentially some nostalgia running through Putin’s veins for that territory and millions of Russians (loyal citizens) living there, I think he’s content having a satellite buffer with mixed loyalties.

I have to assume that there will be NO military action – unless stupid people do insane things.  But the smokescreen out of the Obama administration concerning inflicting damaging sanctions is just that.  The rest of the world is indeed tired of being controlled by Washington, and has been developing countermeasures to prevent Washington from shutting them down economically.  They've devised computer viruses that can disrupt our markets, and our banking systems. They've created channels where they could ‘dump’ our Treasuries and refuse payments on obligations.  In other words, the U.S. could impose sanctions on Russia, and Russia would come right back with it’s own brand of economic warfare.  The result would be that both sides would be wounded.  I’m guessing we see more huff and puff, but in the end, the real outcome will be a stand down, and a ‘sweep under the rug’.  But beware of the posturing to come.

The market is still striving for the last all time high to be exceeded, and (depending upon the Ukraine) the DOW should be on track to do that early this week.  We are in a bubble and there’s no telling how far this bubble will inflate.  All we can do now is continue the ride – making sure to jump off before the wheels come off.  Be cautious – and aware of the parallels between our current market and the stock market crash of 1928-29 illustrated below.  Could history repeat itself?  In my view – it already has.



Tips:

This week I exited QIHU before earnings for spectacular profits.  And we got back into playing the NUGT / DUST combination.  These are two leveraged ETF’s that are focused around the gold and silver mining industry.  The ETF’s are designed to virtually off-set each other – meaning as one goes up the other goes down virtually the same amount.  Therefore, it’s somewhat of a natural to:
-       Purchase equal dollar amounts of each ETF,
-       Sell – close to the money calls on each ETF at a very accommodative return rate, and
-       Watch the calls expire worthless – pocketing their complete sale amount.

FireEye (FEYE) issued more stock which brought their stock price down and gave us yet another buying opportunity, along with a directional call play.  This coming week I’ll be enhancing my position on TLT (the bond ETF) and a couple oil ETF’s – UCO and USO in anticipation of the Ukrainian dilemma.

My current short-term holds are:
-       FEYE – in @ $75.50 – (currently $81.63)
-       USO (Oil) – in @ $34.51 - (currently $37.06)
-       UCO (Oil) – in @ $28.75 – (currently $35.05)
-       SIL (Silver) – in at 24.51 - (currently 14.05) – no stop,
-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 129.29) – no stop ($1,339 per physical ounce), AND
-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 20.20) – no stop ($20.90 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>



Sunday, March 2, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 3-2-2014


This Week in Barrons – 3-2-2014

What should I Buy?

For the past two weeks we have been discussing a potential global currency reset.    Unfortunately there are few investments you can make to protect yourself from a global currency devaluation.  Why?  Well if this were just Argentina (for example) – you could quietly put some money in a foreign currency via foreign exchanges, and by the time they outlawed such things, you would already have the benefit of the increase in the foreign exchange rate.  However, on a global reset - you won't be able to buy into a foreign currency (that may rise as your currency is devalued), because the foreign currency will be devalued as well.  Therefore, there are only 3 ‘protection’ investments: real estate (if you own it out right), gold and silver.

What about owning shares in gold mining companies, or the GLD and SLV?  The mining companies are a good bet for the short-term, but it does not make them immune.  If things get really ugly, there's no question that Governments would simply ‘seize control’ of the mining companies.  That said, holding some gold and silver mining stocks should be a good choice as we get closer to the reset.  You can bet that if we had a 3-day banking holiday, only to wake up on day 4 with a new currency with a new value, those miners would be priced considerably higher.  However, if that happened, I would immediately ‘cash out’ on the initial market-pop higher for the miners – for fear that the Governments hosting the mining operations would seize control of the mines themselves.

Both the GLD and SLV exchange traded funds have not been attractive to me since they launched.  That being said, as long as the markets are functioning normally, they have been good ways to record gains when the metals move up.  My fear is that they are really ‘shams’ for the average investor, and are NOT the same as holding the physical metal.  Therefore, holding physical gold and silver is the single best thing you can do.

With that in mind, what should I buy?  In gold, buying a one-ounce ‘gold eagle’ gold coin will cost upwards of $1,350, and buying groceries with that coin becomes a little difficult.  But one ounce ‘gold eagles’ come in 4 ‘face values’: a $50 face value = one once of gold, a $25 face = 1-half ounce of gold, $10 = 1-quarter ounce of gold, and $5 = 1-tenth ounce of gold.   You can certainly purchase a 1/10th ounce ‘American’ eagle for about $150, it is only 91% pure gold.  On the other hand, the Royal Canadian mint makes 1/10th ounce gold coins called ‘Maple Leafs’ and they are 99.9% pure.  The ‘Maple Leafs’ will cost approximately $160 per coin, but worth the extra $10 for the remaining gold purity.

With silver remaining ‘cheap’ in relation to where it should be, I suggest one ounce, recognizable silver coins.  In other words, the Australian Silver Kookaburras, Austrian Silver Philharmonics, and Chinese Silver Pandas make great collectibles but lousy spendables.  I would stick to the U.S., one ounce, ‘silver eagle’ coins.

Honestly, I hope that I’m nuts and way off-course.  But as I look at the Ukraine who is on the verge of war because they’re: broke (like the U.S.), have a deep political divide (like the U.S.), and religious and racial issues (just like the U.S.) – I keep hoping that this too shall pass.


The Market:

Let me start off by saying I was wrong.  I did not think that the S&P would make it over 1,850 – but it did.  Candidly, I’m still waiting for those 3-day closes above the 1,850 level, but we clearly got the first one on Friday when we closed at 1,859.  But, why is the S&P making new all time highs when the economic news stinks, and the Fed is removing punch from the bowl?  The most obvious answer is that there is no other place to go to invest.  As I look around the world, where can I put my money for some kind of a return with a modicum of safety?  Emerging markets are creaking and groaning with the looming threat of defaults.  The world is facing the possibility of a European war over the Ukraine.  And the southern European countries continue to deteriorate.  As crazy as it sounds, U.S. stocks are being looked at as the best of a bad lot.

But notice what the corporations are doing with their money.  They are not building plants, or investing in other capital expenditures.  In record amounts, corporations are issuing debt (borrowing) and using the proceeds to buy back their own stock.  Because this reduces the amount of shares of stock available, this gives the illusion of increasing earnings per share.  To date corporations have announced over HALF A TRILLION dollars worth of stock buy backs.  Daily I see companies (a) miss their earnings estimates, (b) guide earnings lower into the future, and (c) then announce an $X Billion stock buy back program.  This results in the stock moving higher – not due to growth, hiring, increased revenues, or profits – just from borrowing money to buy stock.  In my world, that behavior is called ‘margin debt’ (borrowing money to buy stock) – and that is never a good idea.

I don't know how far this can go.  In the short-term, the DOW is still 250 points shy of its all-time high, and we are still in danger of the S&P rolling over in what amounts to a failed break out.  But here’s the issue: If you buy stocks in a trading account, and you have the time to play with your accounts, then none of the following matters because you have the ability to buy and sell without constraints.

However, the average person has their money in a 401k.  When 401ks were first started, you were allowed to manage them ‘daily’ on your computer.  You could virtually day-trade your 401k, moving money from cash into funds (and stocks) for a few days and then back into cash after a potential pop in the stock.  But over the years ‘The Street’ got wise to that behavior and implemented rules only allowing you to ‘adjust’ your 401k allocation a certain number of times in a quarter.  Often you’re only allowed one adjustment per quarter, and sometimes only two per year.

So the problem becomes, if you decide to push 100% of your 401k into stocks right now because the S&P has broken out – you can’t do anything else with that money for another 3+ months.  A week later, a war breaks out in Europe and the S&P drops 800 points – you have lost your fortune all because you could not make another 401k move.

This is the single biggest problem in J. Q. Public’s finances today.  The stakes have been ‘tilted’ so that J. Q. Public is no longer in control of his money.  It’s currently all up to the Wall Street fund managers.  While it is fun when the market is going up, there will be true pain and anguish when the market is on it’s way down.  Unfortunately, the market is levitating for all the wrong reasons.   Hopefully any correction will not resemble the Japanese ‘candle stick’ that dropped from 40,000 down to 9,000 in a matter of weeks.  Please be careful out there.


Tips:

This week I strictly played the probabilities and generated income by selling weekly ‘put credit spreads’ along with our standard earnings plays – where we sell ‘put and call options’ one standard deviation away from the current price.  Allow me to explain:

For our Weekly Income:
-       I normally just sell weekly ‘put credit spreads’ / either 1 or 1.5 standard deviations in the money.
-       A ‘standard deviation’ is an amount calculated by your trading platform – that tells you for a period of time (often weekly) – that a stock will remain within a certain price range – 67% of the time (for a single standard deviation).
-       Therefore, if the stock goes up (at all) or down (slightly), the options expire worthless and I pocket all of the ‘sales’ proceeds on a weekly basis.
-       For example: 
o   On a $10 stock (if the ‘standard deviation’ is $1 – a value calculated by your trading platform) I would be selling either the weekly 1 or 1.5 standard deviation options.
o   Therefore I would be selling either the $9.00 or $8.50 put options – betting on the stock remaining either above $9.01 or $8.51 for the week. 
o   Probability tells me that I will have an 88%+ chance that the stock will remain above those targets, and therefore the put options that I sell will expire worthless – and I will pocket all of the proceeds.

For Earnings Plays the behavior is similar:
-       If stock is trading for $10, and the weekly ‘standard deviation’ (calculated by your trading platform) is $1.00.  (This means that there is a 67% probability that the stock trades between $9.00 and $11.00 for the week.)
-       On an earnings play I could SELL the weekly, $11.00 ‘call option’ and SELL the weekly $9.00 ‘put option’ for a premium amount (paid into my account) – and be right 67% of the time.
-       However, I often want more ‘security’ than 67% of the time – so I often go out 1.5 standard deviations to give me that added 88% cushion of probability.  Therefore I often sell the $11.50 call option and the $8.50 put option respectively.
-       I would be ‘betting’ on the stock remaining less than $11.50 and above $8.50 for the remainder of the week. 
-       Then at the end of the week, the options would expire worthless – leaving me to pocket the entire premium.

I still like the following stocks: BIIB, SCTY, NFLX, TSLA, QIHU, CMG and commodities such as USO and UCO.  All of these seem to march to a different drummer than the market itself and perform well using the above trading philosophy.

I also like some smaller names such as:  MNKD, ARIA, and FireEye (FEYE). 

My current short-term holds are:
-       QIHU – in @ $91.20 - (currently $109.55)
-       ARIA – in @ $8.43 – (currently $8.63)
-       FEYE – in @ $75.50 – (currently $85.00)
-       USO (Oil) – in @ $34.51 - (currently $37.18)
-       UCO (Oil) – in @ $28.75 – (currently $34.87)
-       FXY (Japanese currency) – PUTS in @ at $96.47 - (currently $95.88 – looking for it to go lower)
-       SIL (Silver) – in at 24.51 - (currently 14.09) – no stop,
-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 128.08) – no stop ($1,329 per physical ounce), AND
-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 20.41) – no stop ($21.20 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>