RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, October 26, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 10-26-14

This Week in Barrons – 10-26-2014:
















Politicians – they Walk Among us – and they Breed!

Maybe it’s because of Halloween Week, but politicians are really starting to scare me.  Last week President Obama (in a campaign speech) said: “By almost every measure we are better off than the day I took office".  At first I thought it was his attempt at humor, until I realized he believed what he said.  Factually President Obama – from the time you took office until now:
-       Individual savings rates have fallen by 17%, from 6.5% to 5.4%,
-       The number of food stamp recipients has increased by 46%, from 31.9 M to 46.5 M,
-       The number of part time workers has increased by 12%, from 25M to 28M,
-       The median income of a U.S. worker has fallen by 3.3%, from $55,871 to $53.978 (not counting inflation),
-       The number of people living in poverty has increased by 26% to 48M (an all-time high),
-       The majority (60%) of the jobs lost since 2008 have been 'high paying' jobs (over $18/hr.), while the majority (58%) of the jobs created since 2008 have been 'low paying' jobs (less than $12/hr.),
-       AND with QE3 creating 1M jobs, but costing the taxpayers $1T – that’s a cost of $1M PER JOB created!  That’s an incredible statistic.  If the average job created produced wages plus benefits of $16 per hour ($33,000 per year) – where did the other 96% of the $1M per job go?   Does it mean that the remaining $967,000 per job ($1M per job minus the $33,000 worker’s wages) went into the pockets of banksters – who (in turn) invested it into the stock market?

Now, we can only blame ourselves for electing the ‘Walking Dead.’  In fact, JA sent me some sample Congressional interactions that (I’m ashamed to say) made me laugh at their level of incompetence:
-       Bernie Sanders (a senior Vermont Congressman) recently complained about his trip to Orlando, Florida – because his room lacked an ‘ocean view’.  When he was told that Orlando was in the middle of the state he exclaimed: “Don't lie to me!  I looked it up on the map, and Florida is a very THIN state!"
-       Lindsay Ross (an aid to John Kerry) inquired: “Would it be less expensive when going to Hawaii - to fly into California and then take the train to Hawaii?”
-       Bobby Bright (a freshman Congressman from Alabama) wondered how to find his plane.  “I know that the flight number is #823, but none of the planes seemed to have the flight numbers painted on them.”
-       And then there was Mary Landrieu (a Senator from Louisiana), who was told that in order to fly to China she needed both a passport and a tourist visa.  Ms. Landrieu was abrupt in her response: “I do NOT need a visa because the last four times I visited China – every shop I visited accepted American Express.”

When the President speaks of income inequality, someone needs to do the math for him on the above numbers.  It appears that for every working-class dollar created, we are paying $29.3 in crony capitalism to all of his capitalist-investor-banker friends.  History shows us that this pace is unsustainable without a correction of dramatic proportions.  I urge you to make your voices heard – the first week of November.


The Market:

In the short term, there is a pattern of market manipulation developing, and it’s all being accomplished by jawboning.  Early last week it was FED heads Williams and Bullard hinting at QE4, then the ECB's Coeure talked of going on an ‘ECB buying spree’, then China talking about a $30 billion targeted stimulus, and finally the Japanese finance minister hinting at a 25% stock rebalancing in their government pension fund.  The amazing part is that the jawboning is working.  Market volatility is at ‘un-heard-of’ levels, with wild mood-swings of a couple hundred points per day.

But let’s take a step back.  One thought is that next week (when the FOMC ends the QE program) ‘air’ could start to leak out of this market.  The elections are on November 4th, so any of the ‘propping up’ that may have been done will be over by then.  Combine this with the incredible earnings misses from some large multinationals (IBM, Coca-Cola and McDonalds), and the outright ‘doctoring’ of earnings due to stock buyback programs (Apple buying back $45B worth of it’s own stock) – and you have a confused investor favoring the market’s downside direction.

On the other hand, we've had the first 10% correction in over 3 years, and many feel that this was as deep a plunge as we're going to see.  We also are coming into the months of November and December – that are typically good months for the market.  In fact, November is notorious for being the month where companies do the bulk of their buy back action.  And there are a ton of hedge funds that are woefully behind the market – that will try and ‘save face’ by piling-in and ‘making’ the market go higher as they ride along.

The strong U.S. dollar (that has delivered us lower oil prices) is weakening U.S. exports and hurting our corporation’s top-line revenue abilities.  Due to dollar fluctuations, tax inequalities and other reasons, multinational corporations continue to migrate overseas – where the bulk of consumers are located and where consumer income is growing.  The key overseas markets are Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC’s) – along with the emerging markets.

So there are reasons to think that this market will fall, and reasons to think that it will rise.  However, without more FED injections of some kind, this market will start to ‘roll over’, and the recent increased volatility is evidence of that.  But I do NOT think that this ‘roll over’ will happen between now and the end of the year.  I think that we're going to be trapped between the lows of the 10% dip and the highs we have already set.  I can see us running up and down inside that range until the year ends.  But come the New Year, I do expect this market to begin its downtrend, and it could fall a long way.

Next week (on Tuesday and Wednesday) we have another Federal Open-Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.  I believe that the Fed will maintain their dovish stance on interest rates – keeping them at zero out into the future.  But I am on the fence as to whether they will take any action regarding QE4 – in order to weaken the dollar and create more inflation.  In advance of the FOMC meeting, I would expect to see market consolidation along with the VIX (market volatility index) in the 15 to 17 range.  The RUT (Russell 2000 Index of small-cap companies) along with the 10-year bonds are pricing-in a dovish FED meeting.  I believe that the FED can sell more HOPE’ium with its zero interest rate policy alone.  If the FED introduces more QE – then the volatility should be reduced, and the market will indeed move higher.

Between now and the end of year, this market will favor the nimble investor.  You won’t be able to get too long or too short.  If you’re the type of investor that wants to hold something for more than a week or two at a time – this won’t be a great market for you as the FED’s stars are beginning to align.  The FED needs a stronger dollar and weaker CPI in order to justify more QE, and to keep interest rates at zero for a longer period of time.  If the FED mentions deflationary concerns at the FOMC meeting, this will fuel rumors surrounding QE4.  And with the weaker CPI (1.7%) and the FED’s concern about ‘slack in the labor market’ and ‘structural unemployment problems’, there is a possibility that they may NOT end QE3 just yet and let it play out a little while longer.

Personally, I’m reminded of a line from the movie ‘War Games’ where Joshua (a computer) says: “The only winning move is – NOT to play.”  Right now I fear our market is stuck between the big correction and the all-time highs, and we will remain there until yearend.


Tips:

We have all heard the saying: “The market has no memory from day to day”, and that certainly applies to this market.  Just a little over a week ago, the market was talking ‘doom and gloom’ and now it’s singing ‘Happy days are here again.’  The past week, the S&P had its best week in almost 2 years.  This coming week has many major energy and oil companies reporting earnings, so I expect some downward pressure on the markets.  I’m seeing potential trades in names such as: AAPL, IBB, FDX, COST, DPS, CME, CBOE, ICE, WYNN, TEX, SLW, IYT, TRV, UTX, HERO, XLE, UPL, PAA, KMI, VRTX, AMGN, and REGN.

Remember, over 75% of the time – the week before Halloween has an upward bias associated with it.  I’ll be watching the RUT (the Russell-2000 Small-cap Index) as my ‘tell’ for this market. 

In response to readers asking for more exact stock picks, I have constructed some recommendations below; however, you may want to pause until after the FOMC meeting – just in case there are any fireworks.  Also please note, I continue to move from investing ‘directionally’ (which I find extremely difficult in this environment) – to investing in what I think will NOT happen.  Below – you will see that I think WYNN, YELP will move lower (so I’m selling Call Credit Spreads), while believing that GMCR, NFLX, IBM, AMZN, and DECK will move higher (and therefore selling Put Credit Spreads.)
-       Wynn Hotels (WYNN) – Sell the 202.5 / 205 Call Credit Spread with the momentum waves negative and the daily squeeze is waiting to fire short,
-       Yelp (YELP) – Sell the 65 / 67 Call Credit Spread with the momentum waves negative and daily squeeze firing short,
-       Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) – Sell the 136 / 134 Put Credit Spread – with the theme of the week being upward and the momentum waves being positive,
-       NetFlix (NFLX) – Sell the 362.5 / 357.5 Put Credit Spread as the ‘squeeze’ is causing a reversion to the mean,
-       Deckers (DECK) – Sell the 77 / 75 Put Credit Spread with the theme of the week being upward but cautious due to the mixed momentum waves,
-       IBM – Sell the 155 / 152.5 Put Credit Spread with the theme of the week being upward but cautious due to the negative momentum waves,
-       Amazon (AMZN) – Sell the 265 / 260 Put Credit Spread with the theme of the week being upward but cautious due to the negative momentum waves,
-       S&P Index (SPX) – Sell the 1920 / 1915 Put Credit Spread – with the theme of the week being positive, but wait until after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting for confirmation,
-       Nasdaq (NDX) – Sell 3910 / 3905 Put Credit Spread – with the theme of the week being positive, but wait until after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and
-       The Russell 2000 (RUT) – Sell the 1070 / 1060 Put Credit Spread – with the theme of the week being positive, but wait until after Wednesday’s FOMC

My current short-term ‘Larger-Cap’ holds are:
-       KO (Beverage) – in @ $41.17 – (currently $41.03),

To follow me on Twitter and on StockTwits to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>



Sunday, October 19, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 10-19-2014

This Week in Barrons – 10-19-2014:














      

Deflation – Inflation – What does it matter?

Dear Ms. Yellen:

I only have a couple questions this week?
#1:      Ms. Yellen, why do you hate deflation?  Can’t we forget trying to manufacture 2% inflation and simply let the market decide what's best?  After all, Wal-Mart is our nation’s largest employer and is also the leader in low prices – and yet they don’t seem to go out of business.  And I’ve never heard someone say: “I wish that product would go up in price so that I could buy it.”  The theory with ‘deflation’ is that if you know prices are going to fall, you will delay your purchases, and the economy will come to a screeching halt.  But that doesn’t seem to make any sense to me.  Isn’t it gigantic ‘SALE’ signs that pack stores and showrooms?  People don't delay their purchases waiting on lower prices, but rather flock toward lower prices.  Also, in emergency situations nobody puts off replacing a water heater, a tire, or a refrigerator until ‘next year’ because it could be cheaper.  In fact, electronics are notorious for coming out high and watching prices fall.  And despite knowing prices will fall, people still camp out for 3 weeks on sidewalks to get the newest iPhone.  Your own FED economists have said: “The only episode in which we find evidence of a link between deflation and depression is the Great Depression (1929-34). We find virtually no evidence of such a link in any other period.  In a broad historical context, beyond the Great Depression, the notion that deflation and depression are linked virtually disappears.”  So if deflation isn’t the ‘kiss of death’ – then why not allow consumers to get more value, buy more products, and spur more investment for expansion, by eliminating your goal of 2% inflation?

#2       Ms. Yellen, a friend of mine MW has prepared the chart below.  It tries to simplify a lot of economic factors comparing the West to the BRIC’s (Brazil, Russia, India and China):


I realize that this is a very simplified view, but generally it appears that the U.S. is in trouble on virtually all fronts.  When I look at the BRIC economies, I see increasing wages and jobs, and decreasing unemployment and debt.  And after the West has pumped trillions of dollars into their economies, I continue to see a weak job market, European double-digit unemployment rates, and a contaction in full-time jobs (as jobs that are being created are part-time in order to avoid Obamacare).  Are the BRIC’s just lucky, or is avoiding bail-outs, free money and increased entitlement programs – the way to go?  I realize that your QE programs were designed to stop individuals and businesses from failing.  Government programs rarely address the cause, and frequently just treat the symptoms of an ailing economy.  I have seen the best intended Government programs slowly move from being short-term boosts, to long-term entitlements.  I’m scared that we are beginning to breed a generation that believes that they are ‘entitled’ and often ‘reliant’ upon government handouts.  This behavior destroys real businesses, keeps the poor – poor, drains public coffers, eliminates competition, and ultimately steals an individual’s pride, self-respect, accountability and responsibility.  To that degree I urge you to DISCONTINUE QE – and allow the chips to fall where they may!


The Market:
-       The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks remains one of the best indicators of general market order-flow.  Earlier this week the Russell’s decline slowed, built support and began to rally as the other indices continued to see volatility.
-       The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are ramping up their QE policies and lowering rates even further.  This is exactly opposite of what our FED would like – as it will force wider deflation and trade deficits.
-       The bond market is pricing in that low rates are here to stay.  The 10-year yield has fallen to 2%, and I think we could see 1.6 to 1.8%.  If the bond market believed that the FED was actually going to raise rates, end accommodation, and unwind their balance sheet – we should be seeing rates rise to 3%.
-       The energy sector (XLE) is down more than 20% and funds that have been invested in the energy sector are imploding right and left.  When a fund unravels, a large amount of forced selling hits the market.  This is the equivalent of an investor getting a margin call, but on a much larger scale.
-       This week the bond market spiked over 5 full points, and the VIX (volatility index) spiked its highest levels in 3 years.
-       This week the S&P and NASDAQ touched the 10% correction mark for the first time in 3 years.  Typically corrections will last 9 to 20 months, and will fall between 10% and 30%.  Fair Warning: this just turned from being an ‘investors’ market to a ‘traders’ market – virtually overnight.
-       This week Retail sales reports missed their estimates, and Germany came out and cut its GDP outlook for both 2014 and 2015.
-       This week the NFIB small business outlook missed their estimates and lowered forward guidance.
-       The Ebola outbreak could cause a crash in the economy, as virtually no one will travel or even go into a mall where coughing and sneezing are prevalent.
-       Finally, the dollar rally has had a significant consumer benefit.  Oil and gasoline prices are down, and the rise in food prices has slowed.  The strong dollar is like giving someone a tax cut.  This will certainly help boost confidence among consumers heading into the mid-term elections, and right now the Democrats need all the help they can get.

So the real question is: Can the market hold up and even rise, in the face of failing economic reports, and no new QE?  I say no.  I think we can see a range forming where we bounce and put in lower highs.  We then fall a little more and bounce to a lower high, and on and on.  I see a stair step lower without some form of renewed action from the Feds.  Frankly I don’t see an easy, safe, and smooth exit from our long-term zero interest rate and accommodative policy.  

The FED is very concerned about the dollar rising and the impact it will have on GDP, corporate growth, and earnings.  The other interest rate issues involve the massive amount of borrowers (not just the Federal government) that will have difficulty paying higher interest rates.  Higher U.S. interest rates could trickle over to stall emerging markets and BRIC growth, as the U.S. has been a massive lender to the booming emerging markets.

I think the FED will try and talk us higher, and yet resist doing anything; therefore, expect a lot more chop and slop over the next several weeks.  I’m hearing with more and more frequency that more FED money will solve all of our problems.  For example, I’m hearing that “our schools need MORE money.”  I am not sure at what point J.Q. Public realizes that MONEY is not the magic answer that solves ALL problems, but rather just ‘papers over them’ until tomorrow.


Tips:

I think it is pre-mature to think that the Fed is going to change course.  I think we are experiencing a similar market reaction to the ending of QE1 and QE2.  The FED may ride to the rescue in support of the mid-term elections; however, (due to their lack of credibility) it will need to be under the guise of a national disaster – such as Ebola.  If that were to be the case, then I would NOT fight the FED.  This stock market still has enough faith in the Fed that more QE and zero interest rates will keep this market moving higher a little longer – before the REAL bubble bursts.

At this point all of the indexes have broken through their 200-Day moving averages - which is a big red flag.  The Eurozone is continuing to weaken, but sentiment may be changing soon as the ECB meets on NOV 6th.   I expect that some form of European QE will be discussed, and this should really help firm up both European and U.S. markets.

I still think that the only way to make money in this market is to put and call credit spreads in order to collect premium.  This coming week we have another 25% of the S&P companies reporting earnings – including AAPL, LMT, and PII.  I do not want to call the bottom here as we will likely see more volatility, but I do want to start looking for some bargains in the carnage.  My current list of potential candidates is as follows: CME, CBOE, ICE, WYNN, TEX, HOG, SLW, IYT, TRV, FDX, UTX.  In the energy sector I’m watching HERO, XLE, UPL and am watching PAA, KMI, EEP in the MLP space.  I still like the biotech sector as well with names such as VRTX, AMGN, REGN, and IBB.

My current short-term ‘Larger-Cap’ holds are:
-       KO (Beverage) – in @ $41.17 – (currently $42.68),

My short-tem ‘Small-Caps’ holds are:
-       IG – in @ $7.27 – (currently $8.87),

To follow me on Twitter and on StockTwits to get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>