RF's Financial News

RF's Financial News

Sunday, May 25, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 5-25-2014

This Week in Barrons – 5-25-2014

The Problem with Roaches is:  There’s Never Just One:



There's an old saying that if you see one roach, you're infested.  Why?  Because they are prolific breeders and can multiply in amazing numbers.  While they are disgusting little creatures, they are indeed incredible survivors, and impossible to control.

So, why talk about roaches?  Every day actions are being taken by foreign nations to rid themselves of U.S. dollars.  Every day there are alliances, pacts, contracts and deals that are being created in which the U.S. is NO LONGER a part.  Each one of these deals takes a small bite out of the U.S. economic supremacy that we fought so hard to attain.  The war is being won by the East and lost by the U.S. – very rapidly.  A few examples announced last week:
-       Russia plans to build 8 nuclear plants for Iran.  (No U.S. dollars are involved.)
-       Russia plans on supplying natural gas to China for the next 30 years.  (Every payment methodology being discussed does NOT include U.S. dollars.)
-       China plans to build a high-speed rail line (carrying passengers and industrials) for Kenya (No U.S. dollars are involved.)
-       And China signed an additional 15 agreements within Africa for over $11 Billion dollars for infrastructure improvements.  (No U.S. dollars are involved – an exchange for natural resources is being contemplated.)

This summer the BRICs will launch their version of a development bank.  China and Russia are the major players, but it isn’t just the headline names (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that are going to be involved.  Argentina, Qatar, Iran, Vietnam and Mexico are also joining the fold.  The U.S. was not asked (nor will it be asked) to be a part of this development bank.

In India the recent elections have brought in the Modi regime.  The regime has promised many modifications to name a few: (a) They said that they would do away with any gold surcharges that the last administration put in place in order to try and limit gold sales.  (b) They are pro business, and therefore can expect to see broad alliances with Iran, and the African nations.  And (c) they have mentioned looking to China for substantial financial help going forward.

Ask yourself, how many headlines (in the past couple of years) have had anything to do with the U.S. expanding trade to secure much needed resources?  Not many.  Over a year ago I began talking about a 'Global Reset’ where the U.S. dollar loses its global reserve status, and the world re-prices virtually everything.  Everywhere I look I see the pieces coming together.  The world is tired of the constantly, devalued U.S. dollar and once the Russians, the Chinese and the Indians all come together and hammer out their desires, the U.S. dollar will be removed from its 70-year level of importance.  We’ve been the world’s safe haven for decades, and we’ve squandered it.

The fact that the ‘Global Reset’ is coming is solid.  The only question is timing.  I think it will happen sooner than most people think.  It will be like the homeowner that sees that first roach, waits until he sees a couple more, and then realizes that they’re everywhere.  Then he kicks himself for not taking action sooner.  The same thing is true with the collapse of the U.S. dollar.  Everyone's going to say: "What happened?”  It is by no small coincidence that you're not going to hear about the collapse of the dollar until the day you wake up and it is ‘Done’.  The President will come on television to announce a ‘Bank Holiday’ for several days while we make ‘currency adjustments.’  It’s not an IF anymore; it’s just a WHEN.


The Market:

The good and bad news about the markets as of late, is that any upward movements have been on the ‘lowest volume of the year.’  And although it’s nice to move upward, rather than downward – trends are dictated by volume.  Downward movements have been on very high volume, while upward movements have been on extremely light volume.  This tells me that the path of least resistance for the markets is downward.  But, that not withstanding, we did set new, all-time highs on the S&P this week.

Friday we learned that Italy (in order to boost their GDP – and to have their national debt ratio remain in line with their borrowing), has decided to include Drugs, Prostitution and Smuggling in their GDP calculations.  You read that correctly.  They are going to begin to add the value of junkies and hookers to their GDP.  That literally caused me to stop and realize that the entire world’s numbers are now just a fantasyland.  Heck, why even bother printing GDP numbers if you're going to include cocaine and black market dealings?  You may ask: Where (and How) are you getting the numbers for Drugs, Prostitution and Smuggling?  And why not just say: "All of our numbers are fake” and move on?

Speaking of absurd, I often get mail from readers telling me that I’m crazy for suggesting that the metals market is the most manipulated market on earth.  On Friday, Barclays Bank came out and admitted that it had been manipulating the price of gold for the past ten years, so that it could avoid paying out options gains to its own customers.  And what was their penalty?  It was a ‘slap on the wrist’ and a promise to never do it again.

M.W. had a great market quote this week: “The Federal Reserve has taken the place of the Venture Capitalists of the Dot.Com era and the Mortgage Lenders of the Housing Boom era.  The market is rallying because money flow is FORCED into equities as cash and bonds are made artificially unattractive.  The media and many others continue to believe the economy is doing well and is improving, because they mistakenly correlate the market rally with the economy.  Remember, the Dot.Com rally and Housing Boom, were both created on borrowed money, leveraged debt, and a blind faith that the New Economy couldn’t come down."

Factually:
-       The Russell 2000 (an index of small-cap stocks) represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the United States. 
Small-caps are often viewed as a barometer for investors’ risk appetites.  When bulls are in control you’ll see these names leading the charge.  In the 8 years since 2000 that the market was positive, the small-caps have averaged annual returns of 23% (40% higher than the average return of the S&P.)
-       However, the first five months of 2014 have not been kind.  Small-caps are down 4.5%.
For the first time since November 2012 they: (a) closed below their 200-day moving average, and (b) put in a 10% decline – peak-to-trough.  This is small caps’ 36th peak-to-trough decline of at least 10% since 2000.
-       Of the first 35 peak-to-trough corrections, EVERY ONE was accompanied by large-caps falling, on average 12.8%.  Lately however, the Russell 2000 is down by 10%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.12%.
-       If the Russell can’t find some sort of bottom soon, this small cap (mom and pop) contagion could spread to the Colgate’s and Kimberly Clark’s of the world.

The way I see it:
-       Either history repeats itself, and the S&P 500 and DOW follow the lead of small caps and correct downward, OR
-       There is a summer rally taking the S&P over 2,000, and causing casual investors around the country to reach for their margin accounts in order to ‘bet the farm’ – just like in 1999.
-       To me, it feels like the elites have decided to push this market further than any sane person would guess, and we're going to break out and punch higher.  Of course it's insane, but sanity left the building years ago.

The key will be HOLDING these highs for more than just a couple of days.  We will need to hold these highs and stabilize; otherwise it will indeed be another failed breakout attempt.  So watch the S&P and see what it does next week.  The only warning I will give is this: If the S&P 1,900 doesn't hold, we could see the markets toss in the "Sell in May and go Away" towel.  The fall could be bigger than anyone expects.  So, watch the S&P Index to see that it remains above 1,900.


Tips:

Factually:
-       Congrats to those of you who were with me on the DRTX trade.  On Friday the FDA did approve their skin care treatment and the stock continued to rally.  Between the stock price and options increases, we’re going to record another 100% gainer over a one month time period.
-       The portfolio is up over 50% year to date.  (Hopefully that doesn’t jinx us going forward.) 
-       We sold FET, FPP, NLGS for small gains this past week, and purchased more MNKD and DRTX.
-       TLT continues to be a channel trade.  The latest channel shows TLT a ‘sell’ when it gets to 115+.
-       MNKD continues to rally into it’s FDA date – sometime in mid July.   The stock gained over 10% again last week – and the associated options added another 2 percent to that.
-       Our small cap energy plays continue to do well: BXE, FET, FPP, HK, PFIE, HTM, PQ, and VTNR.  And I have added 3 new stocks to our small cap play list: ASX (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering – a technology company), UIHC (United Insurance Holdings, Corp.), and SPIL (Silicon Precision Industries – a tech company).  You can’t help but fall in love with their charts, along with their most recent gains.  I’m trying to grab some of these small caps – in order to hold them for years and potentially watch them become 10-baggers within the next 18 to 24 months.

Also, I’m still a buyer of NUGT at these levels – but mostly collecting premium by:
-       Buying an equal amount of DUST / NUGT (so that the stocks offset their own rises and falls)
-       SELLing 1 to 1.5 Standard Deviation (SD) Covered Calls on both, and
-       SELLing 1 to 1.5 SD Put Credit Spreads (PCS) on both NUGT and DUST.
-       This nets you between 2 and 3% per week!

My current short-term holds are:
-       DRTX (Drug) – in @ $13.67 – (currently $16.89), w/ 10% monthly Covered Call Yield,
-       MNKD – in @ $6.35 – (currently $7.77), w/ 2% weekly Covered Call Yield,
-       TLT – in @ 112 – (currently $112.70),
-       USO (Oil) – out @ $38+ - may dive back in this week,
-       ASX (Energy) – in @ $5.81 (currently $6.28),
-       BXE (Oil) – in @ $9.11 – (currently $9.39),
-       HK (Energy) – in @ $5.25 – (currently $5.57),
-       HTM (Energy) – in @ $0.75 – (currently $0.59),
-       LSCC (Tech) – in @ $7.85 – (currently $7.91),
-       PFIE (Energy) – in @ $4.47 – (currently $3.97),
-       PQ (Energy) – in @ $5.69 – (currently $6.07),
-       PVA (Energy) – in @ $14.57 – (currently $15.54),
-       RFMD (Tech) – in @ $7.96 – (currently $9.45),
-       SPIL (Tech) – in @ 7.20 – (currently $7.61),
-       UIHC (Insurance) – in @ $16.81 – (currently $17.85),
-       VTNR (Energy) – in @ 7.02 – (currently $8.49),
-       SIL (Silver) – in at 24.51 - (currently 11.94) – no stop,
-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 124.51) – no stop ($1,293.40 per physical ounce), AND
-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 18.66) – no stop ($19.48 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>



Sunday, May 18, 2014

This Week in Barrons - 5-18-2014

This Week in Barrons – 5-18-2014

Rain, Rain Go Away:



To highlight the fact that much of the country is drowning in spring rains – S.F. contributed the following:

God:   In the year 2013, the Lord came unto Noah and said: “Once again, the earth has become evil.  Build another Ark and save 2 of every living thing along with a few good humans. Here are the blueprints and you have 6 months to build the Ark before I will start the unending rain for 40 days and 40 nights.”
God:   6 months later, seeing Noah weeping in his yard – but no Ark, said: “Noah!  I’m about to start the rain!  Where is the Ark?”
Noah: “Please forgive me Lord, but things have changed.  It seems that:
-       I needed a building permit
-       And I’ve been arguing with the Boat Inspector about the need for a sprinkler system.
-       My neighbors claim that I’ve violated the Neighborhood By-Laws by building the Ark in my back garden and exceeding the height limitations.
-       Then the local Electric Company demanded compensation for the future costs of moving power lines and other overhead obstructions, to clear the passage for the Ark’s move to the sea.  I told them that the sea would be coming to us, but they would hear nothing of that.
-       Then there was a ban on cutting local trees in order to save the Greater Spotted Barn Owl.  I tried to convince them that I needed the wood to ‘Save the Owls’ – but no go.
-       Then when I started gathering the animals the ASPCA insisted that I was confining wild animals against their will.  The said that the accommodations were too restrictive, and it was cruel and inhumane to put so many animals into a confined space.
-       Then the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) refused to grant me passage until they conducted an environmental impact study on your proposed route.
-       The Human Rights Commission filed a petition on my needing more minorities for my building crew.
-       Immigration is still checking the Visa status the individuals that are working with me.
-       The Trade Unions say that I can’t use my sons – as they are non-union.
-       And the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) has seized all of my assets, claiming that I’m trying to leave the country illegally with endangered species.
-       So forgive me Lord, but I think that it will take me at least 10 years to finish this Ark.”

God:   Suddenly the skies cleared, the sun began to shine, and a rainbow stretched across the sky. 
Noah: Looking up in wonder asked: “You mean you’re not going to destroy the world?”
God:   No, clearly the Government has beaten me to it.


The Market...

Factually this week:
-       Industrial Production unexpectedly dropped in April.  Output at factories, mines and utilities decreased by 0.6%, while manufacturing alone decreased 0.4%.
-       Confidence among U.S. homebuilders dropped in May to the lowest level in a year.  This tells us that the residential real estate market may be slow to recover after an unusually harsh winter.  Tight credit conditions, limited availability of lots and falling affordability as home prices rise are preventing the residential real-estate market from gaining momentum.
-       As Wal-Mart missed top and bottom line financials last week, the sales of ultra-high end homes have never been better.  Registered sales have climbed from $85M to over $149M – for a single family home.
-       Inflation came in ‘hot’ this past week at over 0.3% per month.  The reality is that inflation is over 9%, but having the government admit to something > 2% is a step in the right direction.
-       David Tepper (the brash billionaire hedge fund owner) spoke at the SALT conference this week and said that that he liked Apple long, the Russell 2000 Index short, and urged attendees: “It’s not time to go all short, but don't be too friggin’ long either."

In the beginning of the week, the market’s tolerance for ignoring bad news was high:
-       Every report out of China missed estimates to the downside,
-       Germany's ZEW report crashed for 10 whole points,
-       And the U.S. retail sales figures (which were supposed to be growing like weeds after the winter’s "weather" excuse) came in up a paltry 0.1%.  And if you took out gasoline sales – then retail sales actually declined.

But on Wednesday the wheels of the market began to come-off and we closed down 101 DOW points and 9 S&P points.  We lost the all time highs, and also lost the 50-day moving average on the XLF (which is the financial sector).  Neither of these are bullish indications.  While one day does not a market make, we have high global tensions, bad economic reports, ugly earnings, and ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ hanging over our heads.

Thursday turned out to be even more ugly than Wednesday.  We dropped like a rock coming out of the gate, and at one point were down 234 points.  The shorts covered some by the close, but we still lost almost 170 DOW points.  The key was the 50-day moving averages.  Both major indexes used their respective 50-day moving averages as support, and bounced higher off of them.  That's important, because market technicians need visible levels of support.

If the DOW and/or the S&P lose their 50-day moving averages, they can fall a long way before their next really solid support level.  So, we need to watch those levels.  And, each time these levels are defended, the defense becomes tougher and tougher to manifest.  After all, retail sales are not that encouraging.  Of the 51 retailers that have announced earnings thus far, they are DOWN an average of almost 4% under last year.  And the pseudo housing recovery is dead.  Rental units are all that is being built.

No matter where I look, you can make the case for this market finally giving up the ghost.  However, we've seen this movie before.  All I can do is follow the numbers.  If the numbers fail their 50-day moving averages – it’s time to get seriously cautious.  If the market pushes back up to it’s old highs and gets rejected – it’s time to get seriously cautious.  In between those levels, we can chop around for days and even weeks.

We ended Friday with a show of bravado with the DOW gaining 45 points.  If nothing goes ‘bump in the night’, I think we will run higher early in the week and attempt a ‘break-out’.   However, if this ‘break-out’ fails, we could finally ‘break-down’.


Tips:

Congrats to those of you who were with me on the TLT trade.  We cashed in those calls at $114, for a 1.5 week – 100% gain.  I will dive back into TLT around $112.  TLT has been (for the past 6 months) one of those 5 days on – 5 days off types of trades.  That means I purchase at the bottom of a channel and (approximately 4 to 5 days later) I sell when it reaches the top of its channel.  I then wait for another 4 to 5 days – when it drifts to the bottom of the channel – and then I buy again.

Double congrats to those of you sticking in the MNKD trade as it gained over 10% last week.  A new pharma play has emerged: DRTX.  It has a drug receiving FDA approval on or around May 26th, 2014.  And it also has a nice 10% monthly covered call yield – coupled with a 9% upward move in the stock.  So if you DO get called out of the stock, you will have accumulated close to a 20% gain in one month.

I also continue to like the small cap energy sector, and specifically stocks such as:  BXE, FET, FPP, HK, PFIE, HTM, PQ, and VTNR. 

Finally, I’m a buyer of Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), and NUGT at these levels.

My current short-term holds are:
-       MNKD – in @ $6.35 – (currently $7.02), w/ 2% weekly Covered Call Yield,
-       TLT – out @ 114 – will be back in July Calls around $112,
-       USO (Oil) – in @ $37.19 - (currently $37.23),
-       BXE (Oil) – in @ $9.11 – (currently $9.19),
-       DRTX (Drug) – in @ $13.67 – (currently $15.93), w/ 10% Covered Call Yield,
-       FET (Energy) – in @ 30.42 – (currently $32.52)
-       FPP (Oil) – in @ $5.32 – (currently $5.17),
-       HK (Energy) – in @ $5.25 – (currently $5.79),
-       HTM (Energy) – in @ $0.75 – (currently $0.66),
-       LSCC (Tech) – in @ $7.85 – (currently $8.13),
-       NGLS (Nat Gas) – in @ 60.11 – (currently $64.00),
-       PFIE (Energy) – in @ $4.47 – (currently $3.96),
-       PQ (Energy) – in @ $5.69 – (currently $5.89),
-       RFMD (Tech) – in @ $7.96 – (currently $8.79),
-       VTNR (Energy) – in @ 7.02 – (currently $7.40),
-       SIL (Silver) – in at 24.51 - (currently 12.05) – no stop,
-       GLD (ETF for Gold) – in at 158.28, (currently 124.50) – no stop ($1,293.50 per physical ounce), AND
-       SLV (ETF for Silver) – in at 28.3 (currently 18.61) – no stop ($19.39 per physical ounce).

To follow me on Twitter and get my daily thoughts and trades – my handle is: taylorpamm. 

Please be safe out there!

Disclaimer:
Expressed thoughts proffered within the BARRONS REPORT, a Private and free weekly economic newsletter, are those of noted entrepreneur, professor and author, R.F. Culbertson, contributing sources and those he interviews.  You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting: <http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com> .

Please write to Mr. Culbertson at: <rfc@culbertsons.com> to inform him of any reproductions, including when and where copy will be reproduced. You may use in complete form or, if quoting in brief, reference <rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>.

If you'd like to view RF's actual stock trades - and see more of his thoughts - please feel free to sign up as a Twitter follower -  "taylorpamm" is the handle.

If you'd like to see RF in action - teaching people about investing - please feel free to view the TED talk that he gave on Fearless Investing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2Z9I_6ciH0

To unsubscribe please refer to the bottom of the email.

Views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest and is not in any way a testimony of, or associated with Mr. Culbertson's other firms or associations.  Mr. Culbertson and related parties are not registered and licensed brokers.  This message may contain information that is confidential or privileged and is intended only for the individual or entity named above and does not constitute an offer for or advice about any alternative investment product. Such advice can only be made when accompanied by a prospectus or similar offering document.  Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please make sure to review important disclosures at the end of each article.

Note: Joining BARRONS REPORT is not an offering for any investment. It represents only the opinions of RF Culbertson and Associates.

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS. WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS (INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS) AN INVESTOR SHOULD CONSIDER VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT PRACTICES MAY INCREASE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS; MAY NOT BE SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS, OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES, AND IN MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER.

Alternative investment performance can be volatile. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Often, alternative investment fund and account managers have total trading authority over their funds or accounts; the use of a single advisor applying generally similar trading programs could mean lack of diversification and, consequently, higher risk. There is often no secondary market for an investor's interest in alternative investments, and none is expected to develop.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Culbertson and/or the staff may or may not have investments in any funds cited above.

Remember the Blog: <http://
rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com/> 
Until next week – be safe.

R.F. Culbertson
<http://rfcfinancialnews.blogspot.com>